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Thiemo Fetzer

Publications and source records attributed to Thiemo Fetzer.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

How much does context affect the accuracy of AI health advice?

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to provide health advice, yet evidence on how their accuracy varies across languages, topics and information sources remains limited. We assess how linguistic and contextual factors affect the accuracy of AI-based health-claim verification. We evaluated seven widely used LLMs on two datasets: (i) 1,975 legally authorised nutrition and health claims from UK and EU regulatory registers translated into 21 languages; and (ii) 9,088 journalist-vetted public-health claims from the PUBHEALTH corpus spanning COVID-19, abortion, politics and general health, drawn from government advisories, scientific abstracts and media sources. Models classified each claim as supported or unsupported using majority voting across repeated runs. Accuracy was analysed by language, topic, source and model. Accuracy on authorised claims was highest in English and closely related European languages and declined in several widely spoken non-European languages, decreasing with syntactic distance from English. On real-world public-health claims, accuracy was substantially lower and varied systematically by topic and source. Models performed best on COVID-19 and government-attributed claims and worst on general health and scientific abstracts. High performance on English, canonical health claims masks substantial context-dependent gaps. Differences in training data exposure, editorial framing and topic-specific tuning likely contribute to these disparities, which are comparable in magnitude to cross-language differences. LLM accuracy in health-claim verification depends strongly on language, topic and information source. English-language performance does not reliably generalise across contexts, underscoring the need for multilingual, domain-specific evaluation before deployment in public-health communication.

econ.GN

Social and Genetic Ties Drive Skewed Cross-Border Media Coverage of Disasters

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide. Media coverage of these events may be vital to generate empathy and mobilize global populations to address the common threat posed by climate change. Using a dataset of 466 news sources from 123 countries, covering 135 million news articles since 2016, we apply an event study framework to measure cross-border media activity following natural disasters. Our results shows that while media attention rises after disasters, it is heavily skewed towards certain events, notably earthquakes, accidents, and wildfires. In contrast, climatologically salient events such as floods, droughts, or extreme temperatures receive less coverage. This cross-border disaster reporting is strongly related to the number of deaths associated with the event, especially when the affected populations share strong social ties or genetic similarities with those in the reporting country. Achieving more balanced media coverage across different types of natural disasters may be essential to counteract skewed perceptions. Further, fostering closer social connections between countries may enhance empathy and mobilize the resources necessary to confront the global threat of climate change.

econ.GN

Causal Claims in Economics

As economics scales, a key bottleneck is representing what papers claim in a comparable, aggregable form. We introduce evidence-annotated claim graphs that map each paper into a directed network of standardized economic concepts (nodes) and stated relationships (edges), with each edge labeled by evidentiary basis, including whether it is supported by causal inference designs or by non-causal evidence. Using a structured multi-stage AI workflow, we construct claim graphs for 44,852 economics papers from 1980-2023. The share of causal edges rises from 7.7% in 1990 to 31.7% in 2020. Measures of causal narrative structure and causal novelty are positively associated with top-five publication and long-run citations, whereas non-causal counterparts are weakly related or negative.

econ.GN

Pandemic Pressures and Public Health Care: Evidence from England

This paper documents that the COVID-19 pandemic induced pressures on the health care system have significant adverse knock-on effects on the accessibility and quality of non-COVID-19 care. We observe persistently worsened performance and longer waiting times in A&E; drastically limited access to specialist care; notably delayed or inaccessible diagnostic services; acutely undermined access to and quality of cancer care. We find that providers under COVID-19 pressures experience notably more excess deaths among non-COVID related hospital episodes such as, for example, for treatment of heart attacks. We estimate there to be at least one such non-COVID-19 related excess death among patients being admitted to hospital for non-COVID-19 reasons for every 30 COVID-19 deaths that is caused by the disruption to the quality of care due to COVID-19. In total, this amounts to 4,003 non COVID-19 excess deaths from March 2020 to February 2021. Further, there are at least 32,189 missing cancer patients that should counterfactually have started receiving treatment which suggests continued increased numbers of excess deaths in the future due to delayed access to care in the past.

econ.GN

Coronavirus Perceptions And Economic Anxiety

We provide one of the first systematic assessments of the development and determinants of economic anxiety at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Using a global dataset on internet searches and two representative surveys from the US, we document a substantial increase in economic anxiety during and after the arrival of the coronavirus. We also document a large dispersion in beliefs about the pandemic risk factors of the coronavirus, and demonstrate that these beliefs causally affect individuals' economic anxieties. Finally, we show that individuals' mental models of infectious disease spread understate non-linear growth and shape the extent of economic anxiety.

econ.GN