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Thilo Meyer-Brandis

Publications and source records attributed to Thilo Meyer-Brandis.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Universality and Approximation Rates of Graph Neural Networks with Random Features

We investigate message-passing graph neural networks with random node features. Random node features are known to enhance the expressiveness of graph neural networks (GNNs) both theoretically and empirically. Here, we establish a novel universality result focusing on permutation-equivariant neural networks (PENNs), a class of GNNs built from feedforward neural network components that subsumes many prominent GNN architectures. We show that PENNs, combined with partially random node features, can approximate arbitrarily well in probability any measurable permutation-invariant or permutation-equivariant function on directed graphs of fixed size with multidimensional node and edge features. For $k$-times continuously differentiable functions, $k\geq 2$, we also derive upper bounds on the approximation rates, relating the complexity of the feedforward components of a PENN in terms of layer depth and number of nonzero weights to the desired approximation accuracy.

cs.LG

On McKean-Vlasov SDEs with polynomial drifts for SIS epidemic models

We present a tractable class of one-dimensional McKean-Vlasov equations that allow for unique strong solutions and extend the dynamics of various SIS epidemic models that are well-established in the literature. While the distribution-dependent drift coefficients are of polynomial type, the diffusion coefficients may involve sums of power functions. Our analysis includes various scenarios of extinction and persistence of the disease and an effective Euler-Maruyama scheme, for which we derive an explicit strong error estimate in $p$th moment for $p\geq 2$.

math.PR

Computing Systemic Risk Measures with Graph Neural Networks

This paper investigates systemic risk measures for stochastic financial networks of explicitly modelled bilateral liabilities. We extend the notion of systemic risk measures from Biagini, Fouque, Fritelli and Meyer-Brandis (2019) to graph structured data. In particular, we focus on an aggregation function that is derived from a market clearing algorithm proposed by Eisenberg and Noe (2001). In this setting, we show the existence of an optimal random allocation that distributes the overall minimal bailout capital and secures the network. We study numerical methods for the approximation of systemic risk and optimal random allocations. We propose to use permutation equivariant architectures of neural networks like graph neural networks (GNNs) and a class that we name (extended) permutation equivariant neural networks ((X)PENNs). We compare their performance to several benchmark allocations. The main feature of GNNs and (X)PENNs is that they are permutation equivariant with respect to the underlying graph data. In numerical experiments we find evidence that these permutation equivariant methods are superior to other approaches.

q-fin.CP

Regularity of Solutions of Mean-Field $G$-SDEs

We study regularity properties of the unique solution of a mean-field $G$-SDE. More precisely, we consider a mean-field $G$-SDE with square-integrable random initial condition and establish its first and second order Fréchet differentiability in the random initial condition and specify the $G$-SDEs of the respective Fréchet derivatives.

math.PR

Detecting asset price bubbles using deep learning

In this paper we employ deep learning techniques to detect financial asset bubbles by using observed call option prices. The proposed algorithm is widely applicable and model-independent. We test the accuracy of our methodology in numerical experiments within a wide range of models and apply it to market data of tech stocks in order to assess if asset price bubbles are present. Under a given condition on the pricing of call options under asset price bubbles, we are able to provide a theoretical foundation of our approach for positive and continuous stochastic asset price processes. When such a condition is not satisfied, we focus on local volatility models. To this purpose, we give a new necessary and sufficient condition for a process with time-dependent local volatility function to be a strict local martingale.

q-fin.MF

Stability, uniqueness and existence of solutions to McKean-Vlasov SDEs: a multidimensional Yamada-Watanabe approach

We establish stability and pathwise uniqueness of solutions to Wiener noise driven McKean-Vlasov equations with random non-Lipschitz continuous coefficients. In the deterministic case, we also obtain the existence of unique strong solutions. By using our approach, which is based on an extension of the Yamada-Watanabe ansatz to the multidimensional setting and which does not rely on the construction of Lyapunov functions, we prove first moment and pathwise exponential stability. Furthermore, Lyapunov exponents are computed explicitly.

math.PR

Collective Arbitrage and the Value of Cooperation

We introduce the notions of Collective Arbitrage and of Collective Super-replication in a discrete-time setting where agents are investing in their markets and are allowed to cooperate through exchanges. We accordingly establish versions of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing and of the pricing-hedging duality. A reduction of the price interval of the contingent claims can be obtained by applying the collective super-replication price.

q-fin.MF

Mean-Field SDEs driven by $G$-Brownian Motion

We extend the notion of mean-field SDEs to SDEs driven by $G$-Brownian motion. More precisely, we consider a $G$-SDE where the coefficients depend not only on time and the current state but also on the solution as random variable.

math.PR

Supplement Liquidity based modeling of asset price bubbles via random matching

This is a supplement to the paper "Liquidity based modeling of asset price bubbles via random matching". The supplement is organized as follows. First, we prove Theorem 3.13 in [1] which provides the existence of the dynamical system D introduced in Definition 3.6 in [1]. Second, we show some properties of D which are summarized in Theorem 3.14 in [1]. In the following, we only state the basic setting and refer to [1] for definitions.

q-fin.MF

Liquidity based modeling of asset price bubbles via random matching

In this paper we study the evolution of asset price bubbles driven by contagion effects spreading among investors via a random matching mechanism in a discrete-time version of the liquidity based model of [25]. To this scope, we extend the Markov conditionally independent dynamic directed random matching of [13] to a stochastic setting to include stochastic exogenous factors in the model. We derive conditions guaranteeing that the financial market model is arbitrage-free and present some numerical simulation illustrating our approach.

q-fin.MF

Stability, uniqueness and existence of solutions to McKean-Vlasov SDEs in arbitrary moments

We deduce stability and pathwise uniqueness for a McKean-Vlasov equation with random coefficients and a multidimensional Brownian motion as driver. Our analysis focuses on a non-Lipschitz drift coefficient and includes moment estimates for random Itô processes that are of independent interest. For deterministic coefficients we provide unique strong solutions, even if the drift fails to be of affine growth. The theory that we develop rests on Itô's formula and leads to $p$-th moment and pathwise $α$-exponential stability for $p\geq 2$ and $α> 0$ with explicit Lyapunov exponents, regardless of whether a Lyapunov function exists.

math.PR

Suffocating Fire Sales

Fire sales are among the major drivers of market instability in modern financial systems. Due to iterated distressed selling and the associated price impact, initial shocks to some institutions can be amplified dramatically through the network induced by portfolio overlaps. In this paper, we develop a mathematical framework that allows us to investigate central characteristics that drive or hinder the propagation of distress. We investigate single systems as well as ensembles of systems that are alike, where similarity is measured in terms of the empirical distribution of all defining properties of a system. This asymptotic approach ensures a great deal of robustness to statistical uncertainty and temporal fluctuations. A characterization of those systems that are resilient to small shocks emerges, and we provide criteria that regulators might exploit in order to assess the stability of a financial system. We illustrate the application of these criteria for some exemplary configurations in the context of capital requirements and test the applicability of our results for systems of moderate size by Monte Carlo simulations.

q-fin.RM

Large Platonic Markets with Delays

The objective is to develop a general stochastic approach to delays on financial markets. We suggest such a concept in the context of large platonic markets, which allow infinitely many assets and incorporate a restricted information setting. The discussion is divided into information delays and order execution delays. The former enables modelling of markets where the observed information is delayed, while the latter provides the opportunity to defer the indexed time of a received asset price. Both delays may be designed randomly and inhomogeneously over time. We show that delayed markets are equipped with a fundamental theorem of asset pricing and our main result is inheritance of the no asymptotic Lp-free lunch condition under both delay types. Eventually, we suggest an approach to verify absence of Lp-free lunch on markets with multiple brokers endowed with deviating trading speeds.

q-fin.MF

Managing Default Contagion in Inhomogeneous Financial Networks

The aim of this paper is to quantify and manage systemic risk caused by default contagion in the interbank market. We model the market as a random directed network, where the vertices represent financial institutions and the weighted edges monetary exposures between them. Our model captures the strong degree of heterogeneity observed in empirical data and the parameters can easily be fitted to real data sets. One of our main results allows us to determine the impact of local shocks, where initially some banks default, to the entire system and the wider economy. Here the impact is measured by some index of total systemic importance of all eventually defaulted institutions. As a central application, we characterize resilient and non-resilient cases. In particular, for the prominent case where the network has a degree sequence without second moment, we show that a small number of initially defaulted banks can trigger a substantial default cascade. Our results complement and extend significantly earlier findings derived in the configuration model where the existence of a second moment of the degree distribution is assumed. As a second main contribution, paralleling regulatory discussions, we determine minimal capital requirements for financial institutions sufficient to make the network resilient to small shocks. An appealing feature of these capital requirements is that they can be determined locally by each institution without knowing the complete network structure as they basically only depend on the institution's exposures to its counterparties.

q-fin.RM

Systemic Optimal Risk Transfer Equilibrium

We propose a novel concept of a Systemic Optimal Risk Transfer Equilibrium (SORTE), which is inspired by the Bühlmann's classical notion of an Equilibrium Risk Exchange. We provide sufficient general assumptions that guarantee existence, uniqueness, and Pareto optimality of such a SORTE. In both the Bühlmann and the SORTE definition, each agent is behaving rationally by maximizing his/her expected utility given a budget constraint. The two approaches differ by the budget constraints. In Bühlmann's definition the vector that assigns the budget constraint is given a priori. On the contrary, in the SORTE approach, the vector that assigns the budget constraint is endogenously determined by solving a systemic utility maximization. SORTE gives priority to the systemic aspects of the problem, in order to optimize the overall systemic performance, rather than to individual rationality.

q-fin.MF

McKean-Vlasov equations on infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces with irregular drift and additive fractional noise

This paper establishes results on the existence and uniqueness of solutions to McKean-Vlasov equations, also called mean-field stochastic differential equations, in an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space setting with irregular drift. Here, McKean-Vlasov equations with additive noise are considered where the driving noise is cylindrical (fractional) Brownian motion. The existence and uniqueness of weak solutions are established for drift coefficients that are merely measurable, bounded, and continuous in the law variable. In particular, the drift coefficient is allowed to be singular in the spatial variable. Further, we discuss existence of a pathwisely unique strong solution as well as Malliavin differentiability.

math.PR

Strong Solutions of Mean-Field SDEs with irregular expectation functional in the drift

We analyze multi-dimensional mean-field stochastic differential equations where the drift depends on the law in form of a Lebesgue integral with respect to the pushforward measure of the solution. We show existence and uniqueness of Malliavin differentiable strong solutions for irregular drift coefficients, which in particular include the case where the drift depends on the cumulative distribution function of the solution. Moreover, we examine the solution as a function in its initial condition and introduce sufficient conditions on the drift to guarantee differentiability. Under these assumptions we then show that the Bismut-Elworthy-Li formula proposed in Bauer et al. (2018) holds in a strong sense, i.e. we give a probabilistic representation of the strong derivative with respect to the initial condition of expectation functionals of strong solutions to our type of mean-field equations in one-dimension.

math.PR

Existence and Regularity of Solutions to Multi-Dimensional Mean-Field Stochastic Differential Equations with Irregular Drift

We examine existence and uniqueness of strong solutions of multi-dimensional mean-field stochastic differential equations with irregular drift coefficients. Furthermore, we establish Malliavin differentiability of the solution and show regularity properties such as Sobolev differentiability in the initial data as well as Hölder continuity in time and the initial data. Using the Malliavin and Sobolev differentiability we formulate a Bismut-Elworthy-Li type formula for mean-field stochastic differential equations, i.e. a probabilistic representation of the first order derivative of an expectation functional with respect to the initial condition.

math.PR