arXiv subjects

Thomas A. Baycroft

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas A. Baycroft.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Bayesian analysis of Gaia epoch astrometry and radial velocities with kima

Context. The next data release from the Gaia space telescope is expected to result in tens of thousands of newly detected exoplanets, as well as detection and 3D orbital constraints on binary stars and even black holes. Many of these will warrant in-depth analyses of the astrometric data, as well as radial velocity follow-up. This will require dedicated tools to exploit this wealth of data. Aims. We provide open-source software to analyse epoch astrometric data from Gaia, both alone and simultaneously with radial velocities. Methods. We add two models to the open-source orbit-fitting codebase kima, and test these on both real an simulated data. This code uses diffusive nested sampling to explore the parameter space, calculate evidences for model comparison, and perform parameter estimation. Results. We show that the results obtained are consistent with published/expected values, validating the use of kima for analysis of Gaia data. We explore various attributes of kima's Gaia model including using it to potentially distinguish true orbits from scan-angle dependent signals.

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arXiv2026

ASTEP confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets with extremely low densities transiting TOI-791

Gas giant planets with periods $20~<~P~<~300~\rm days$ orbiting Sun-like stars are a relatively uncommon outcome of planetary formation, and key questions about the nature and formation of this sub-population remain unanswered. Theoretical models for the location of their formation (in- or ex-situ) and for their subsequent migration predict different outcomes in terms of planet masses and eccentricities, indicating that observations have a key role to play in disentangling their histories. In this work we present the discovery and confirmation of a pair of long-period Jupiter-sized planets transiting an F7 star: TOI-791 b is a $0.993\pm0.033\rm~R_{Jup}$ planet on a $139.29931_{-0.00012}^{+0.00011}~\rm day$ orbit, and TOI-791 c, a $1.155\pm0.040\rm ~R_{Jup}$ planet on a $232.01570_{-0.00071}^{+0.00067}~\rm day$ orbit. The two planets are within 0.07% of a second-order 5:3 period commensurability leading to transit timing variations (TTVs) of up to 50 minutes. We confirm their planetary nature using ground-based photometry, including multiple full detections of the $>11~\rm hr$ transits of both TOI-791 b and c from Antarctica with ASTEP, making these the longest-duration transits ever observed in their entirety from the ground. Our detailed analysis of the TTV signal allows us to measure dynamical masses for both planets, which yield densities of $ρ_{\rm b}=0.038\pm0.008 \rm ~g~cm^{-3}$ and $ρ_{\rm c}=0.047\pm0.006 \rm ~g~cm^{-3}$, indicating that TOI-791~b and c are two of the lowest density giant planets ever detected. While these measurements are robust, further follow-up is needed to fully characterise the TTV signal and the architecture of the system.

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arXiv2026

Uncovering the Rapidly Evolving Orbits of the Dynamic TOI-201 System

Studying planetary interactions in exoplanet systems informs theories of planet formation and evolution, providing essential context for understanding our own solar system. We combine spectroscopy, transit photometry, transit timing variations, and astrometry to characterize the TOI-201 system. The co-transiting system consists of a super-Earth, warm Jupiter, and massive companion at 5.8, 53, and 2900 day orbital periods, respectively. We perform dynamical simulations to study the past and future of the system. von-Zeipel-Kozai-Lidov oscillations emerge as the most plausible scenario to explain the outer companion's high orbital eccentricity, with planet-planet scattering a possible but less likely contender. Due to non-zero mutual inclinations between the planets, the system is visibly evolving on very short timescales, with the current co-transiting configuration ending in 200 years.

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arXiv2026

Predicting Gaia astrometry's ability to constrain the populations of circumbinary planets

The coming data releases of Gaia are expected to result in an upheaval of exoplanet science, in particular for long period giant planets ($0.2 {\rm M_{J}} \leq M\leq25 {\rm M_{J}}$). One class of exoplanets which Gaia will help investigate is circumbinary planets. Using the current knowledge of the circumbinary exoplanet population as well as expectations for the Gaia sensitivity, we investigate the impact Gaia will have on our understanding of circumbinary planets. We compare our results to a pre-launch estimate, the main differences arising from a better understanding of the circumbinary planet population, which result in a lower expected yield than previously predicted, though still significant compared to the known population. We make a rough yield estimate, with conservative detection criteria and parameter-space cuts, predicting in the 10s - 100s of detections in Gaia DR4. More importantly, we show how the yield estimate varies strongly with different assumptions on the injected circumbinary population, showing Gaia's sensitivity to the mass and orbital period distribution of circumbinary planets. We find that Gaia circumbinary exoplanet detections will be biased towards planets closer to the instability zone surrounding the binary, due to the larger number of binaries on wider orbits and the limited timespan of Gaia. We also assess the impact Gaia will have on known circumbinary systems, one being that it may resolve the question of reliability of the claimed planets orbiting post-common-envelope binaries, with Gaia DR5 being sensitive to between 3 and 11 out of 32 such planet candidates.

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arXiv2025

BEBOP VIII. SOPHIE radial velocities reveal an eccentric, circumbinary brown dwarf

Circumbinary configurations offer a test of planet formation in an altered environment, where the inner binary has perturbed a protoplanetary disc. Comparisons of the physical and orbital parameters between the circumbinary planet population and the population of exoplanets orbiting single stars will reveal how these disc perturbations affect the assembly of planets. Circumbinary exoplanets detected thus far typically have masses $< 3 \,\rm M_{jup}$ raising the question of whether high-mass circumbinary planets are possible, and also whether population features such as the brown dwarf desert would appear in circumbinary configurations like for single star systems. Here, we report observations taken with the SOPHIE high-resolution spectrograph. These observations reveal an $m_{\rm b}\,\sin i_{\rm b} = 20.9 \,\rm M_{jup}$ outer companion, on an eccentric ($e = 0.43$), $1800\,\rm d$ orbit, which we call BEBOP-4 (AB) b. Using dynamical arguments we constrain the true mass $m_{\rm b}< 26.3 \,\rm M_{jup}$. The inner binary's two eclipsing stellar components have masses $M_{\rm A} = 1.51\,\rm M_\odot$, and $M_{\rm B} = 0.46\,\rm M_\odot$. Their orbital period is $72\,\rm d$, and their eccentricity is $0.27$. This system contains the longest period binary surveyed by the BEBOP project. BEBOP-4b is expected to be detectable using Gaia DR4 single epoch astrometric measurements. Despite a large period ratio of $\sim 25:1$, the substantial eccentricities of both orbits mean that the outer orbit is on the edge of orbital stability, and located in between two destabilising secular resonances. Should the outer companion survive, the BEBOP-4 system appears like a precursor to several post-common envelope binaries exhibiting eclipse timing variations where very massive circumbinary companions have been proposed.

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arXiv2025

BEBOP VII. SOPHIE discovery of BEBOP-3b, a circumbinary giant planet on an eccentric orbit

Planetary systems orbiting close binaries are valuable testing grounds for planet formation and migration models. More detections with good mass measurements are needed. We present a new planet discovered during the BEBOP survey for circumbinary exoplanets using radial velocities. We use data taken with the SOPHIE spectrograph at the Observatoire de Haute-Provence, and perform a spectroscopic analysis to obtain high precision radial velocities. This planet is the first radial velocity detection of a previously unknown circumbinary system. The planet has a mass of $0.56$ $M_{Jup}$ and orbits its host binary in 550 days with an eccentricity of 0.25. Compared to most of the previously known circumbinary planets, BEBOP-3b has a long period (relative to the binary) and a high eccentricity. There also is a candidate outer planet with a $\sim1400$ day orbital period. We test the stability of potential further candidate signals inside the orbit of BEBOP-3b, and demonstrate that there are stable orbital solutions for planets near the instability region which is where the Kepler circumbinary planets are located. We also use our data to obtain independent dynamical masses for the two stellar components of the eclipsing binary using High Resolution Cross-Correlation Spectroscopy (HRCCS), and compare those results to a more traditional approach, finding them compatible with one another.

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arXiv2025

Polar alignment of a circumbinary disc around a brown dwarf binary

Inspired by recent observations suggesting that the retrograde precession of the brown dwarf binary 2M1510 AB is consistent with induction by a polar circumbinary planet, we investigate the formation of such planets by studying the evolution of a primordial misaligned circumbinary disc around a brown dwarf binary. Analytical calculations show that a critical tilt angle of $i_{\rm crit} \gtrsim 50^\circ$ for moderately eccentric binaries is needed for polar alignment of circumbinary discs in systems with low disc-to-binary angular momentum ratios. For higher ratios, this angle converges to the Kozai-Lidov instability threshold of $\sim 39^\circ$. We identify disc parameters, such as viscosity ($α= 10^{-4}$) and aspect ratio ($H/r = 0.05$), that enable polar alignment within typical disc lifetimes. Notably, a circumbinary disc around a low-mass binary, such as a brown dwarf binary, will require more time to achieve polar alignment compared to higher-mass systems. A hydrodynamical simulation confirms that an initially inclined disc around a brown dwarf evolves towards a polar state, creating favorable conditions for polar planet formation. Using these results, we finish by placing 2M1510 AB into a wider context and speculate why such a polar circumbinary configuration has not been identified before.

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arXiv2025

Evidence for a polar circumbinary exoplanet orbiting a pair of eclipsing brown dwarfs

One notable example of exoplanet diversity is the population of circumbinary planets, which orbit around both stars of a binary star system. There are so far only 16 known circumbinary exoplanets, all of which lie in the same orbital plane as the host binary. Suggestions exist that circumbinary planets could also exist on orbits highly inclined to the binary, close to 90$^{\circ}$, polar orbits. No such planets have been found yet but polar circumbinary gas and debris discs have been observed and if these were to form planets then those would be left on a polar orbit. We report strong evidence for a polar circumbinary exoplanet, which orbits a close pair of brown dwarfs which are on an eccentric orbit. We use radial-velocities to measure a retrograde apsidal precession for the binary, and show that this can only be attributed to the presence of a polar planet.

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arXiv2024

BEBOP VI. Enabling the detection of circumbinary planets orbiting double-lined binaries with the DOLBY method of radial-velocity extraction

Circumbinary planets - planets that orbit both stars in a binary system - offer the opportunity to study planet formation and orbital migration in a different environment compare to single stars. However, despite the fact that > 90% of binary systems in the solar neighbourhood are spectrally resolved double-lined binaries, there has been only one detection of a circumbinary planet orbitting a double-lined binary using the radial velocity method so far. Spectrally disentangling both components of a binary system is hard to do accurately. Weak spectral lines blend with one another in a time-varying way, and inaccuracy in spectral modelling can lead to an inaccurate estimation of the radial-velocity of each component. This inaccuracy adds scatter to the measurements that can hide the weak radial-velocity signature of circumbinary exoplanets. We have obtained new high signal-to-noise and high-resolution spectra with the SOPHIE spectrograph, mounted on the 193cm telescope at Observatoire de Haute-Provence (OHP) for six, bright, double-lined binaries for which a circumbinary exoplanet detection has been attempted in the past. To extract radial-velocities we use the DOLBY code, a recent method of spectral disentangling using Gaussian processes to model the time-varying components. We analyse the resulting radial-velocities with a diffusive nested sampler to seek planets, and compute sensitivity limits. We do not detect any new circumbinary planet. However, we show that the combination of new data, new radial-velocity extraction methods, and new statistical methods to determine a dataset's sensitivity to planets leads to an approximately one order of magnitude improvement compared to previous results. This improvement brings us into the range of known circumbinary exoplanets and paves the way for new campaigns of observations targeting double-lined binaries.

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arXiv2024

Progress report on the BEBOP search for circumbinary planets with radial velocities

The BEBOP (Binaries Escorted By Orbiting Planets) survey is a search for circumbinary planets using the radial velocity spectrographs HARPS and SOPHIE, currently focusing on single-lined binaries with a mass ratio $<0.3$. Circumbinary systems are an important testing ground for planet formation theories as the dynamically complex influence of the binary makes planet formation and survival more difficult. Here we present the results of the survey so far including: confirmed planets such as BEBOP-1c the first circumbinary planet detected in radial velocity; the status of our observations; and preliminary occurrence rates. We compare the early results of the radial velocity survey to the population of circumbinary planets discovered in transit, and suggest that there may be a population of inflated planets close to the inner binary which are detectable in transit but more difficult in radial velocity. Using time-lag tidal theory, we show that this inflation is unlikely caused by tides.

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arXiv2024

BEBOP V. Homogeneous Stellar Analysis of Potential Circumbinary Planet Hosts

Planets orbiting binary systems are relatively unexplored compared to those around single stars. Detections of circumbinary planets and planetary systems offer a first detailed view into our understanding of circumbinary planet formation and dynamical evolution. The BEBOP (Binaries Escorted by Orbiting Planets) radial velocity survey plays a special role in this adventure as it focuses on eclipsing single-lined binaries with an FGK dwarf primary and M dwarf secondary allowing for the highest-radial velocity precision using the HARPS and SOPHIE spectrographs. We obtained 4512 high-resolution spectra for the 179 targets in the BEBOP survey which we used to derive the stellar atmospheric parameters using both equivalent widths and spectral synthesis. We furthermore derive stellar masses, radii, and ages for all targets. With this work, we present the first homogeneous catalogue of precise stellar parameters for these eclipsing single-lined binaries.

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arXiv2024

ESPRESSO observations of Gaia BH1: high-precision orbital constraints and no evidence for an inner binary

We present high-precision radial velocity (RV) observations of Gaia BH1, the nearest known black hole (BH). The system contains a solar-type G star orbiting a massive dark companion, which could be either a single BH or an inner BH + BH binary. A BH + BH binary is expected in some models where Gaia BH1 formed as a hierarchical triple, which are attractive because they avoid many of the difficulties associated with forming the system through isolated binary evolution. Our observations test the inner binary scenario. We have measured 115 precise RVs of the G star, including 40 from ESPRESSO with a precision of $3$-$5$ m s$^{-1}$, and 75 from other instruments with a typical precision of $30$-$100$ m s$^{-1}$. Our observations span $2.33$ orbits of the G star and are concentrated near a periastron passage, when perturbations due to an inner binary would be largest. The RVs are well-fit by a Keplerian two-body orbit and show no convincing evidence of an inner binary. Using REBOUND simulations of hierarchical triples with a range of inner periods, mass ratios, eccentricities, and orientations, we show that plausible inner binaries with periods $P_{\text{inner}} \gtrsim 1.5$ days would have produced larger deviations from a Keplerian orbit than observed. Binaries with $P_{\text{inner}} \lesssim 1.5$ days are consistent with the data, but these would merge within a Hubble time and would thus imply fine-tuning. We present updated parameters of Gaia BH1's orbit. The RVs yield a spectroscopic mass function $f\left(M_{\text{BH}}\right)=3.9358 \pm 0.0002\,M_{\odot}$ - about $7000σ$ above the $\sim2.5\,M_{\odot}$ maximum neutron star mass. Including the inclination constraint from Gaia astrometry, this implies a BH mass of $M_{\text{BH}} = 9.27 \pm 0.10 ~ M_{\odot}$.

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arXiv2023

New methods for radial-velocity measurements of double-lined binaries, and detection of a circumbinary planet orbiting TIC 172900988

Ongoing ground-based radial-velocity observations seeking to detect circumbinary planets focus on single-lined binaries even though over nine in every ten binary systems in the solar-neighbourhood are double-lined. Double-lined binaries are on average brighter, and should in principle yield more precise radial-velocities. However, as the two stars orbit one another, they produce a time-varying blending of their weak spectral lines. This makes an accurate measure of radial velocities difficult, producing a typical scatter of 10-15m/s. This extra noise prevents the detection of most orbiting circumbinary planets. We develop two new data-driven approaches to disentangle the two stellar components of a double-lined binary, and extract accurate and precise radial-velocities. Both approaches use a Gaussian Process regression, with the first one working in the spectral domain, whereas the second works on cross-correlated spectra. We apply our new methods to TIC 172900988, a proposed circumbinary system with a double-lined binary, and detect a circumbinary planet with an orbital period of 150 days, different than previously proposed. We also measure a significant residual scatter, which we speculate is caused by stellar activity. We show that our two data-driven methods outperform the traditionally used TODCOR and TODMOR, for that particular binary system.

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arXiv2023

New evidence about HW Vir's circumbinary planets from Hipparcos-Gaia astrometry and a reanalysis of the eclipse timing variations using nested sampling

The post common-envelope eclipsing binary HW Virginis has had many circumbinary companions proposed based on eclipse timing variations. Each proposed solution has lacked in predictability and orbital stability, leaving the origin of the eclipse timing variations an active area of research. Leveraging the catalogue of \textit{Hipparcos} and \textit{Gaia} proper motion anomalies, we show there is slight evidence for a circumbinary companion orbiting HW Vir. We place an upper limit in mass for such a companion which excludes some previously claimed companions. We also apply this method to V471 Tauri and confirm the non-detection of a previously claimed brown dwarf. We adapt the {\tt kima} nested sampling code to analyse eclipse timing variations and re-analyse archival data on HW Vir, varying the order of the ephemeris that we fit for and the amount of the data that we use. Although signals are clearly present, we find two signals around 2500 and 4000 day periods that are not coherent between different \textit{chunks} of the data, so are likely to not be of planetary origin. We analyse the whole dataset and find the best solution to contain four signals. Of these four we argue the outermost is the most compatible with astrometry and thus the most likely to be of planetary nature. We posit the other three pseudo-periodic signals are caused by physical processes on the white dwarf. The eventual release of the full \textit{Gaia} epoch astrometry is a promising way to confirm whether circumbinary planets exist around HW Vir (and other similar systems), and explore white dwarf physics.

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arXiv2023

GJ 9404 b: a confirmed eccentric planet, and not a candidate

Eccentric orbits can be decomposed into a series of sine curves which affects how the false alarm probability is computed when using traditional periodograms on radial-velocity data. Here we show that a candidate exoplanet orbiting the M dwarf GJ 9404, identified by the HADES survey using data from the HARPS-N spectrograph, is in fact a bona-fide planet on a highly eccentric orbit. Far from a candidate, GJ 9404 b is detected with a high confidence. We reach our conclusion using two methods that assume Keplerian functions rather than sines to compute a detection probability, a Bayes Factor, and the FIP periodogram. We compute these using nested sampling with {\tt kima}.

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arXiv2023

Radial-velocity discovery of a second planet in the TOI-1338/BEBOP-1 circumbinary system

We report the detection of a gas-giant planet in orbit around both stars of an eclipsing binary star system that also contains the smaller, inner transiting planet TOI-1338b. The new planet, called TOI-1338/BEBOP-1c, was discovered using radial-velocity data collected with the HARPS and ESPRESSO spectrographs. Our analysis reveals it is a $65.2~\rm{M_{\oplus}}$ circumbinary planet with a period of $215.5~$days. This is the first detection of a circumbinary planet using radial-velocity observations alone, and makes TOI-1338/BEBOP-1 only the second confirmed multiplanet circumbinary system to date. We do not detect the smaller inner transiting planet with radial-velocity data, and can place an upper limit on the inner planet's mass at $21.8~\mathrm{M}_\oplus$ with $99\%$ confidence. The inner planet is the first circumbinary planet amenable for atmospheric characterisation, using the James Webb Space Telescope.

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arXiv2023

Improving circumbinary planet detections by fitting their binary's apsidal precession

Apsidal precession in stellar binaries is the main non-Keplerian dynamical effect impacting the radial-velocities of a binary star system. Its presence can notably hide the presence of orbiting circumbinary planets because many fitting algorithms assume perfectly Keplerian motion. To first order, apsidal precession ($\dotω$) can be accounted for by adding a linear term to the usual Keplerian model. We include apsidal precession in the kima package, an orbital fitter designed to detect and characterise planets from radial velocity data. In this paper, we detail this and other additions to kima that improve fitting for stellar binaries and circumbinary planets including corrections from general relativity. We then demonstrate that fitting for $\dotω$ can improve the detection sensitivity to circumbinary exoplanets by up to an order of magnitude in some circumstances, particularly in the case of multi-planetary systems. In addition, we apply the algorithm to several real systems, producing a new measurement of aspidal precession in KOI-126 (a tight triple system), and a detection of $\dotω$ in the Kepler-16 circumbinary system. Although apsidal precession is detected for Kepler-16, it does not have a large effect on the detection limit or the planetary parameters. We also derive an expression for the precession an outer planet would induce on the inner binary and compare the value this predicts with the one we detect.

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