arXiv subjects

Thomas B. Schön

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas B. Schön.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

Learning Localized Spatio-Temporal Models From Streaming Data

We address the problem of predicting spatio-temporal processes with temporal patterns that vary across spatial regions, when data is obtained as a stream. That is, when the training dataset is augmented sequentially. Specifically, we develop a localized spatio-temporal covariance model of the process that can capture spatially varying temporal periodicities in the data. We then apply a covariance-fitting methodology to learn the model parameters which yields a predictor that can be updated sequentially with each new data point. The proposed method is evaluated using both synthetic and real climate data which demonstrate its ability to accurately predict data missing in spatial regions over time.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Using Inertial Sensors for Position and Orientation Estimation

In recent years, MEMS inertial sensors (3D accelerometers and 3D gyroscopes) have become widely available due to their small size and low cost. Inertial sensor measurements are obtained at high sampling rates and can be integrated to obtain position and orientation information. These estimates are accurate on a short time scale, but suffer from integration drift over longer time scales. To overcome this issue, inertial sensors are typically combined with additional sensors and models. In this tutorial we focus on the signal processing aspects of position and orientation estimation using inertial sensors. We discuss different modeling choices and a selected number of important algorithms. The algorithms include optimization-based smoothing and filtering as well as computationally cheaper extended Kalman filter and complementary filter implementations. The quality of their estimates is illustrated using both experimental and simulated data.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2018

Learning convex bounds for linear quadratic control policy synthesis

Learning to make decisions from observed data in dynamic environments remains a problem of fundamental importance in a number of fields, from artificial intelligence and robotics, to medicine and finance. This paper concerns the problem of learning control policies for unknown linear dynamical systems so as to maximize a quadratic reward function. We present a method to optimize the expected value of the reward over the posterior distribution of the unknown system parameters, given data. The algorithm involves sequential convex programing, and enjoys reliable local convergence and robust stability guarantees. Numerical simulations and stabilization of a real-world inverted pendulum are used to demonstrate the approach, with strong performance and robustness properties observed in both.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Modeling and interpolation of the ambient magnetic field by Gaussian processes

Anomalies in the ambient magnetic field can be used as features in indoor positioning and navigation. By using Maxwell's equations, we derive and present a Bayesian non-parametric probabilistic modeling approach for interpolation and extrapolation of the magnetic field. We model the magnetic field components jointly by imposing a Gaussian process (GP) prior on the latent scalar potential of the magnetic field. By rewriting the GP model in terms of a Hilbert space representation, we circumvent the computational pitfalls associated with GP modeling and provide a computationally efficient and physically justified modeling tool for the ambient magnetic field. The model allows for sequential updating of the estimate and time-dependent changes in the magnetic field. The model is shown to work well in practice in different applications: we demonstrate mapping of the magnetic field both with an inexpensive Raspberry Pi powered robot and on foot using a standard smartphone.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2018

Delayed Sampling and Automatic Rao-Blackwellization of Probabilistic Programs

We introduce a dynamic mechanism for the solution of analytically-tractable substructure in probabilistic programs, using conjugate priors and affine transformations to reduce variance in Monte Carlo estimators. For inference with Sequential Monte Carlo, this automatically yields improvements such as locally-optimal proposals and Rao-Blackwellization. The mechanism maintains a directed graph alongside the running program that evolves dynamically as operations are triggered upon it. Nodes of the graph represent random variables, edges the analytically-tractable relationships between them. Random variables remain in the graph for as long as possible, to be sampled only when they are used by the program in a way that cannot be resolved analytically. In the meantime, they are conditioned on as many observations as possible. We demonstrate the mechanism with a few pedagogical examples, as well as a linear-nonlinear state-space model with simulated data, and an epidemiological model with real data of a dengue outbreak in Micronesia. In all cases one or more variables are automatically marginalized out to significantly reduce variance in estimates of the marginal likelihood, in the final case facilitating a random-weight or pseudo-marginal-type importance sampler for parameter estimation. We have implemented the approach in Anglican and a new probabilistic programming language called Birch.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

How consistent is my model with the data? Information-Theoretic Model Check

The choice of model class is fundamental in statistical learning and system identification, no matter whether the class is derived from physical principles or is a generic black-box. We develop a method to evaluate the specified model class by assessing its capability of reproducing data that is similar to the observed data record. This model check is based on the information-theoretic properties of models viewed as data generators and is applicable to e.g. sequential data and nonlinear dynamical models. The method can be understood as a specific two-sided posterior predictive test. We apply the information-theoretic model check to both synthetic and real data and compare it with a classical whiteness test.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Probabilistic learning of nonlinear dynamical systems using sequential Monte Carlo

Probabilistic modeling provides the capability to represent and manipulate uncertainty in data, models, predictions and decisions. We are concerned with the problem of learning probabilistic models of dynamical systems from measured data. Specifically, we consider learning of probabilistic nonlinear state-space models. There is no closed-form solution available for this problem, implying that we are forced to use approximations. In this tutorial we will provide a self-contained introduction to one of the state-of-the-art methods---the particle Metropolis--Hastings algorithm---which has proven to offer a practical approximation. This is a Monte Carlo based method, where the particle filter is used to guide a Markov chain Monte Carlo method through the parameter space. One of the key merits of the particle Metropolis--Hastings algorithm is that it is guaranteed to converge to the "true solution" under mild assumptions, despite being based on a particle filter with only a finite number of particles. We will also provide a motivating numerical example illustrating the method using a modeling language tailored for sequential Monte Carlo methods. The intention of modeling languages of this kind is to open up the power of sophisticated Monte Carlo methods---including particle Metropolis--Hastings---to a large group of users without requiring them to know all the underlying mathematical details.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Learning of state-space models with highly informative observations: a tempered Sequential Monte Carlo solution

Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems. Some problems of this type that were previously intractable can now be solved on standard personal computers thanks to recent advances in Monte Carlo methods. In particular, for learning of unknown parameters in nonlinear state-space models, methods based on the particle filter (a Monte Carlo method) have proven very useful. A notoriously challenging problem, however, still occurs when the observations in the state-space model are highly informative, i.e. when there is very little or no measurement noise present, relative to the amount of process noise. The particle filter will then struggle in estimating one of the basic components for probabilistic learning, namely the likelihood $p($data$|$parameters$)$. To this end we suggest an algorithm which initially assumes that there is substantial amount of artificial measurement noise present. The variance of this noise is sequentially decreased in an adaptive fashion such that we, in the end, recover the original problem or possibly a very close approximation of it. The main component in our algorithm is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler, which gives our proposed method a clear resemblance to the SMC^2 method. Another natural link is also made to the ideas underlying the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). We illustrate it with numerical examples, and in particular show promising results for a challenging Wiener-Hammerstein benchmark problem.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Learning nonlinear state-space models using smooth particle-filter-based likelihood approximations

When classical particle filtering algorithms are used for maximum likelihood parameter estimation in nonlinear state-space models, a key challenge is that estimates of the likelihood function and its derivatives are inherently noisy. The key idea in this paper is to run a particle filter based on a current parameter estimate, but then use the output from this particle filter to re-evaluate the likelihood function approximation also for other parameter values. This results in a (local) deterministic approximation of the likelihood and any standard optimization routine can be applied to find the maximum of this local approximation. By iterating this procedure we eventually arrive at a final parameter estimate.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Regularized parametric system identification: a decision-theoretic formulation

Parametric prediction error methods constitute a classical approach to the identification of linear dynamic systems with excellent large-sample properties. A more recent regularized approach, inspired by machine learning and Bayesian methods, has also gained attention. Methods based on this approach estimate the system impulse response with excellent small-sample properties. In several applications, however, it is desirable to obtain a compact representation of the system in the form of a parametric model. By viewing the identification of such models as a decision, we develop a decision-theoretic formulation of the parametric system identification problem that bridges the gap between the classical and regularized approaches above. Using the output-error model class as an illustration, we show that this decision-theoretic approach leads to a regularized method that is robust to small sample-sizes as well as overparameterization.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2017

Linearly constrained Gaussian processes

We consider a modification of the covariance function in Gaussian processes to correctly account for known linear constraints. By modelling the target function as a transformation of an underlying function, the constraints are explicitly incorporated in the model such that they are guaranteed to be fulfilled by any sample drawn or prediction made. We also propose a constructive procedure for designing the transformation operator and illustrate the result on both simulated and real-data examples.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

System Identification through Online Sparse Gaussian Process Regression with Input Noise

There has been a growing interest in using non-parametric regression methods like Gaussian Process (GP) regression for system identification. GP regression does traditionally have three important downsides: (1) it is computationally intensive, (2) it cannot efficiently implement newly obtained measurements online, and (3) it cannot deal with stochastic (noisy) input points. In this paper we present an algorithm tackling all these three issues simultaneously. The resulting Sparse Online Noisy Input GP (SONIG) regression algorithm can incorporate new noisy measurements in constant runtime. A comparison has shown that it is more accurate than similar existing regression algorithms. When applied to non-linear black-box system modeling, its performance is competitive with existing non-linear ARX models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Bayesian optimisation for fast approximate inference in state-space models with intractable likelihoods

We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the likelihood in this type of models. However, such approximations can be noisy and computationally costly which hinders efficient implementations using standard methods based on optimisation and Monte Carlo methods. We propose a computationally efficient novel method based on the combination of Gaussian process optimisation and SMC-ABC to create a Laplace approximation of the intractable posterior. We exemplify the proposed algorithm for inference in stochastic volatility models with both synthetic and real-world data as well as for estimating the Value-at-Risk for two portfolios using a copula model. We document speed-ups of between one and two orders of magnitude compared to state-of-the-art algorithms for posterior inference.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

A sequential Monte Carlo approach to Thompson sampling for Bayesian optimization

Bayesian optimization through Gaussian process regression is an effective method of optimizing an unknown function for which every measurement is expensive. It approximates the objective function and then recommends a new measurement point to try out. This recommendation is usually selected by optimizing a given acquisition function. After a sufficient number of measurements, a recommendation about the maximum is made. However, a key realization is that the maximum of a Gaussian process is not a deterministic point, but a random variable with a distribution of its own. This distribution cannot be calculated analytically. Our main contribution is an algorithm, inspired by sequential Monte Carlo samplers, that approximates this maximum distribution. Subsequently, by taking samples from this distribution, we enable Thompson sampling to be applied to (armed-bandit) optimization problems with a continuous input space. All this is done without requiring the optimization of a nonlinear acquisition function. Experiments have shown that the resulting optimization method has a competitive performance at keeping the cumulative regret limited.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

On the construction of probabilistic Newton-type algorithms

It has recently been shown that many of the existing quasi-Newton algorithms can be formulated as learning algorithms, capable of learning local models of the cost functions. Importantly, this understanding allows us to safely start assembling probabilistic Newton-type algorithms, applicable in situations where we only have access to noisy observations of the cost function and its derivatives. This is where our interest lies. We make contributions to the use of the non-parametric and probabilistic Gaussian process models in solving these stochastic optimisation problems. Specifically, we present a new algorithm that unites these approximations together with recent probabilistic line search routines to deliver a probabilistic quasi-Newton approach. We also show that the probabilistic optimisation algorithms deliver promising results on challenging nonlinear system identification problems where the very nature of the problem is such that we can only access the cost function and its derivative via noisy observations, since there are no closed-form expressions available.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

A flexible state space model for learning nonlinear dynamical systems

We consider a nonlinear state-space model with the state transition and observation functions expressed as basis function expansions. The coefficients in the basis function expansions are learned from data. Using a connection to Gaussian processes we also develop priors on the coefficients, for tuning the model flexibility and to prevent overfitting to data, akin to a Gaussian process state-space model. The priors can alternatively be seen as a regularization, and helps the model in generalizing the data without sacrificing the richness offered by the basis function expansion. To learn the coefficients and other unknown parameters efficiently, we tailor an algorithm using state-of-the-art sequential Monte Carlo methods, which comes with theoretical guarantees on the learning. Our approach indicates promising results when evaluated on a classical benchmark as well as real data.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2017

Prediction performance after learning in Gaussian process regression

This paper considers the quantification of the prediction performance in Gaussian process regression. The standard approach is to base the prediction error bars on the theoretical predictive variance, which is a lower bound on the mean square-error (MSE). This approach, however, does not take into account that the statistical model is learned from the data. We show that this omission leads to a systematic underestimation of the prediction errors. Starting from a generalization of the Cramér-Rao bound, we derive a more accurate MSE bound which provides a measure of uncertainty for prediction of Gaussian processes. The improved bound is easily computed and we illustrate it using synthetic and real data examples. of uncertainty for prediction of Gaussian processes and illustrate it using synthetic and real data examples.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Online Learning for Distribution-Free Prediction

We develop an online learning method for prediction, which is important in problems with large and/or streaming data sets. We formulate the learning approach using a covariance-fitting methodology, and show that the resulting predictor has desirable computational and distribution-free properties: It is implemented online with a runtime that scales linearly in the number of samples; has a constant memory requirement; avoids local minima problems; and prunes away redundant feature dimensions without relying on restrictive assumptions on the data distribution. In conjunction with the split conformal approach, it also produces distribution-free prediction confidence intervals in a computationally efficient manner. The method is demonstrated on both real and synthetic datasets.

cs.LG↗