arXiv subjects

Thomas J. Fauchez

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas J. Fauchez.

49 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Part III: Simulated Observables -- The return of the spectrum

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) is a community project that aims to quantify how dfferences in general circulation models (GCMs) could impact the climate prediction for TRAPPIST-1e and, subsequently its atmospheric characterization in transit. Four GCMs have participated in THAI so far: ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D and the UM. This paper, focused on the simulated observations, is the third part of a trilogy, following the analysis of two land planet scenarios (part I) and two aquaplanet scenarios (part II). Here, we show a robust agreement between the simulated spectra and the number of transits estimated to detect the land planet atmospheres. For the aquaplanet ones, using atmospheric data from any of the four GCMs would require at least 17 transits. This prediction corresponds to UM simulated data which produces the lowest and thinnest clouds. Between 35-40% more clouds are predicted by ExoCAM or LMD-G due to higher thick terminator clouds. For the first time this work provides "GCM uncertainty error bars" of 35-40% that need to be considered in future analyses of transmission spectra. We also analyzed the inter-transit variability induced by weather patterns and changes of terminator cloudiness between transits. Its magnitude differs significantly between the GCMs but its impact on the transmission spectra is within the measurement uncertainties. THAI has demonstrated the importance of model intercomparison for exoplanets and also paved the way for a larger project to develop an intercomparison meta-framework, namely the Climates Using Interactive Suites of Intercomparisons Nested for Exoplanet Studies (CUISINES).

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arXiv2022

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Part II: Moist Cases -- The Two Waterworlds

To identify promising exoplanets for atmospheric characterization and to make the best use of observational data, a thorough understanding of their atmospheres is needed. 3D general circulation models (GCMs) are one of the most comprehensive tools available for this task and will be used to interpret observations of temperate rocky exoplanets. Due to parameterization choices made in GCMs, they can produce different results, even for the same planet. Employing four widely-used exoplanetary GCMs -- ExoCAM, LMD-G, ROCKE-3D and the UM -- we continue the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison by modeling aquaplanet climates of TRAPPIST-1e with a moist atmosphere dominated by either nitrogen or carbon dioxide. Although the GCMs disagree on the details of the simulated regimes, they all predict a temperate climate with neither of the two cases pushed out of the habitable state. Nevertheless, the inter-model spread in the global mean surface temperature is non-negligible: 14 K and 24 K in the nitrogen and carbon dioxide dominated case, respectively. We find substantial inter-model differences in moist variables, with the smallest amount of clouds in LMD-Generic and the largest in ROCKE-3D. ExoCAM predicts the warmest climate for both cases and thus has the highest water vapor content and the largest amount and variability of cloud condensate. The UM tends to produce colder conditions, especially in the nitrogen-dominated case due to a strong negative cloud radiative effect on the day side of TRAPPIST-1e. Our study highlights various biases of GCMs and emphasizes the importance of not relying solely on one model to understand exoplanet climates.

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arXiv2022

The Role of Atmospheric Exchange in False-Positive Biosignature Detection

Saturn's Moon Titan receives volatiles into the top of its atmosphere-including atomic oxygen-sourced from cryovolcanoes on Enceladus. Similar types of atmosphere exchange from one body to another, such as O2 and O3 sourced from TRAPPIST-1 d, could be introduced into the upper atmosphere of TRAPPIST-1 e and might be interpreted as biosignatures. We simulate this potential false-positive for life on TRAPPIST-1 e, by applying an external influx of water and oxygen into the top of the atmosphere using a coupled 1-D photochemical-climate model (Atmos), to predict atmospheric composition. In addition, synthetic spectral observations are produced using the Planetary Spectrum Generator for the James Webb Space Telescope, Origins Space Telescope, Habitable Exoplanet Observatory and Large Ultra-violet/Optical/Infrared Surveyor to test the detectability of abiotic-generated O2 and O3 in the presence of abiotic and biotic surface fluxes of CH4. We determine that the incoming flux of material needed to trigger detection of abiotic O2/O3 by any of these observatories is more than two orders of magnitude (1E12 molecules/cm2/s) above what is physically plausible.

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arXiv2022

Disruption of a Planetary Nitrogen Cycle as Evidence of Extraterrestrial Agriculture

Agriculture is one of the oldest forms of technology on Earth. The cultivation of plants requires a terrestrial planet with active hydrological and carbon cycles and depends on the availability of nitrogen in soil. The technological innovation of agriculture is the active management of this nitrogen cycle by applying fertilizer to soil, at first through the production of manure excesses but later by the Haber-Bosch industrial process. The use of such fertilizers has increased the atmospheric abundance of nitrogen-containing species such as NH$_3$ and N$_2$O as agricultural productivity intensifies in many parts of the world. Both NH$_3$ and N$_2$O are effective greenhouse gases, and the combined presence of these gases in the atmosphere of a habitable planet could serve as a remotely detectable spectral signature of technology. Here we use a synthetic spectral generator to assess the detectability of NH$_3$ and N$_2$O that would arise from present-day and future global-scale agriculture. We show that present-day Earth abundances of NH$_3$ and N$_2$O would be difficult to detect but hypothetical scenarios involving a planet with 30-100 billion people could show a change in transmittance of about 50-70% compared to pre-agricultural Earth. These calculations suggest the possibility of considering the simultaneous detection of NH$_3$ and N$_2$O in an atmosphere that also contains H$_2$O, O$_2$, and CO$_2$ as a technosignature for extraterrestrial agriculture. The technology of agriculture is one that could be sustainable across geologic timescales, so the spectral signature of such an "ExoFarm" is worth considering in the search for technosignatures.

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arXiv2022

Detectability of Chlorofluorocarbons in the Atmospheres of Habitable M-dwarf Planets

The presence of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in Earth's atmosphere is a direct result of technology. Ozone-depleting CFCs have been banned by most countries, but some CFCs have persistent in elevated concentrations due to their long stratospheric lifetimes. CFCs are effective greenhouse gases and could serve as a remotely detectable spectral signature of technology. Here we use a three-dimensional climate model and a synthetic spectrum generator to assess the detectability of CFC-11 and CFC-12 as a technosignature on exoplanets. We consider the case of TRAPPIST-1e as well as a habitable Earth-like planet around a 3300 K M-dwarf star, with CFC abundances ranging from one to five times present-day levels. Assuming an optimistic James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Mid Infrared Instrument (MIRI) low resolution spectrometer (LRS) noise floor level of 10 ppm to multiple co-added observations, we find that spectral features potentially attributable to present or historic Earth-level CFC features could be detected with a SNR $\ge 3-5$ on TRAPPIST-1e, if present, in $\sim 100$ hours of in-transit time. However, applying a very conservative 50 ppm noise floor to co-added observations, even a 5x Earth-level CFC would not be detectable no matter the observation time. Such observations could be carried out simultaneously and at no additional cost with searches for biosignature gases. Non-detection would place upper limits on the CFC concentration. We find that with the launch of JWST, humanity may be approaching the cusp of being able to detect passive atmospheric technosignatures equal in strength to its own around the nearest stars.

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arXiv2022

ExoCAM: A 3D Climate Model for Exoplanet Atmospheres

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project was initiated to compare 3D climate models that are commonly used for predicting theoretical climates of habitable zone extrasolar planets. One of the core models studied as part of THAI is ExoCAM, an independently curated exoplanet branch of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2.1. ExoCAM has been used for studying atmospheres of terrestrial extrasolar planets around a variety of stars. To accompany the THAI project and provide a primary reference, here we describe ExoCAM and what makes it unique from standard configurations of CESM. Furthermore, we also conduct a series of intramodel sensitivity tests of relevant moist physical tuning parameters while using the THAI protocol as our starting point. A common criticism of 3D climate models used for exoplanet modeling is that cloud and convection routines often contain free parameters that are tuned to the modern Earth, and thus may be a source of uncertainty in evaluating exoplanet climates. Here, we explore sensitivities to numerous configuration and parameter selections, including a recently updated radiation scheme, a different cloud and convection physics package, different cloud and precipitation tuning parameters, and a different sea ice albedo. Improvements to our radiation scheme and the modification of cloud particle sizes have the largest effect on global mean temperatures, with variations up to ~10 K, highlighting the requirement for accurate radiative transfer and the importance of cloud microphysics for simulating exoplanetary climates. However for the vast majority of sensitivity tests, climate differences are small. For all cases studied, intramodel differences do not bias general conclusions regarding climate states and habitability.

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arXiv2021

L 98-59: a Benchmark System of Small Planets for Future Atmospheric Characterization

L 98-59 is an M3V dwarf star that hosts three small (R < 1.6 Earth radii) planets. The host star is bright (K = 7.1) and nearby (10.6 pc), making the system a prime target for follow-up characterization with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Herein, we use simulated transmission spectroscopy to evaluate the detectability of spectral features with HST and JWST assuming diverse atmospheric scenarios (e.g., atmospheres dominated by H2, H2O, CO2, or O2). We find that H2O and CH4 present in a low mean-molecular weight atmosphere could be detected with HST in 1 transit for the two outermost planets, while H2O in a clear steam atmosphere could be detected in 6 transits or fewer with HST for all three planets. We predict that observations using JWST/NIRISS would be capable of detecting a clear steam atmosphere in 1 transit for each planet, and H2O absorption in a hazy steam atmosphere in 2 transits or less. In a clear, desiccated atmosphere, O2 absorption may be detectable for all three planets with NIRISS. If the L 98-59 planets possess a clear, Venus-like atmosphere, NIRSpec could detect CO2 within 26 transits for each planet, but the presence of H2SO4 clouds would significantly suppress CO2 absorption. The L 98-59 system is an excellent laboratory for comparative planetary studies of transiting multiplanet systems, and observations of the system via HST and JWST would present a unique opportunity to test the accuracy of the models presented in this study.

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arXiv2021

TRAPPIST Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) workshop report

The era of atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets is just around the corner. Modeling prior to observations is crucial in order to predict the observational challenges and to prepare for the data interpretation. This paper presents the report of the TRAPPIST Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) workshop (14-16 September 2020). A review of the climate models and parameterizations of the atmospheric processes on terrestrial exoplanets, model advancements and limitations, as well as direction for future model development was discussed. We hope that this report will be used as a roadmap for future numerical simulations of exoplanet atmospheres and maintaining strong connections to the astronomical community.

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arXiv2020

The First Habitable Zone Earth-sized Planet from TESS. I: Validation of the TOI-700 System

We present the discovery and validation of a three-planet system orbiting the nearby (31.1 pc) M2 dwarf star TOI-700 (TIC 150428135). TOI-700 lies in the TESS continuous viewing zone in the Southern Ecliptic Hemisphere; observations spanning 11 sectors reveal three planets with radii ranging from 1 R$_\oplus$ to 2.6 R$_\oplus$ and orbital periods ranging from 9.98 to 37.43 days. Ground-based follow-up combined with diagnostic vetting and validation tests enable us to rule out common astrophysical false-positive scenarios and validate the system of planets. The outermost planet, TOI-700 d, has a radius of $1.19\pm0.11$ R$_\oplus$ and resides in the conservative habitable zone of its host star, where it receives a flux from its star that is approximately 86% of the Earth's insolation. In contrast to some other low-mass stars that host Earth-sized planets in their habitable zones, TOI-700 exhibits low levels of stellar activity, presenting a valuable opportunity to study potentially-rocky planets over a wide range of conditions affecting atmospheric escape. While atmospheric characterization of TOI-700 d with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will be challenging, the larger sub-Neptune, TOI-700 c (R = 2.63 R$_\oplus$), will be an excellent target for JWST and beyond. TESS is scheduled to return to the Southern Hemisphere and observe TOI-700 for an additional 11 sectors in its extended mission, which should provide further constraints on the known planet parameters and searches for additional planets and transit timing variations in the system.

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arXiv2020

TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Motivations and protocol version 1.0

Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), or the Extremely Large Telescope (ELTs), may soon be able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M dwarf system TRAPPIST-1 which has seven known transiting planets for which Transit Timing Variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles. Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate to have habitable surface conditions, receiving ~66 % of the Earth's incident radiation, and thus needing only modest greenhouse gas inventories to raise surface temperatures to allow surface liquid water to exist. TRAPPIST-1e is therefore one of the prime targets for JWST atmospheric characterization. In this context, the modeling of its potential atmosphere is an essential step prior to observation. Global Climate Models (GCMs) offer the most detailed way to simulate planetary atmospheres. However, intrinsic differences exist between GCMs which can lead to different climate prediction and thus observability of gas and/or cloud features in transmission and thermal emission spectra. Such differences should preferably be known prior to observations. In this paper we present a protocol to inter-compare planetary GCMs. Four testing cases are considered for TRAPPIST-1e but the methodology is applicable to other rocky exoplanets in the Habitable Zone. The four test cases included two land planets composed with a modern Earth and pure CO2 atmospheres, respectively, and two aqua planets with the same atmospheric compositions. Currently, there are four participating models (LMDG, ROCKE-3D, ExoCAM, UM), however this protocol is intended to let other teams participate as well.

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arXiv2020

Sensitive Probing of Exoplanetary Oxygen via Mid Infrared Collisional Absorption

The collision-induced fundamental vibration-rotation band at 6.4 um is the most significant absorption feature from O2 in the infrared (Timofeyev and Tonkov, 1978; Rinslandet al., 1982, 1989), yet it has not been previously incorporated into exoplanet spectral analyses for several reasons. Either CIAs were not included or incomplete/obsolete CIA databases were used. Also, the current version of HITRAN does not include CIAs at 6.4 um with other collision partners (O2-X). We include O2-X CIA features in our transmission spectroscopy simulations by parameterizing the 6.4 um O2-N2 CIA based on Rinsland et al.(1989) and the O2-CO2 CIA based on Baranov et al. (2004). Here we report that the O2-X CIA may be the most detectable O2 feature for transit observations. For a potentialTRAPPIST-1e analogue system within 5 pc of the Sun, it could be the only O2 detectable signature with JWST (using MIRI LRS) for a modern Earth-like cloudy atmosphere with biological quantities of O2. Also, we show that the 6.4 um O2-X CIA would be prominent for O2-rich desiccated atmospheres (Luger and Barnes, 2015) and could be detectable with JWST in just a few transits. For systems beyond 5 pc, this feature could therefore be a powerful discriminator of uninhabited planets with non-biological "false positive" O2 in their atmospheres - as they would only be detectable at those higher O2 pressures.

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arXiv2019

Clouds will likely prevent the detection of water vapor in JWST transmission spectra of terrestrial exoplanets

We are on the verge of characterizing the atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zones of M dwarf stars. Due to their large planet-to-star radius ratios and higher frequency of transits, terrestrial exoplanets orbiting M dwarf stars are favorable for transmission spectroscopy. In this work, we quantify the effect that water clouds have on the amplitude of water vapor transmission spectral features of terrestrial exoplanets orbiting M dwarf stars. To do so, we make synthetic transmission spectra from general circulation model (GCM) experiments of tidally locked planets. We improve upon previous work by considering how varying a broad range of planetary parameters affects transmission spectra. We find that clouds lead to a 10-100 times increase in the number of transits required to detect water features with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) with varying rotation period, incident stellar flux, surface pressure, planetary radius, and surface gravity. We also find that there is a strong increase in the dayside cloud coverage in our GCM simulations with rotation periods $\gtrsim 12 \ \mathrm{days}$ for planets with Earth's radius. This increase in cloud coverage leads to even stronger muting of spectral features for slowly rotating exoplanets orbiting M dwarf stars. We predict that it will be extremely challenging to detect water transmission features in the atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zone of M dwarf stars with JWST. However, species that are well-mixed above the cloud deck (e.g., CO$_2$ and CH$_4$) may still be detectable on these planets with JWST.

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arXiv2019

Impact of Clouds and Hazes on the Simulated JWST Transmission Spectra of Habitable Zone Planets in the TRAPPIST-1 System

The TRAPPIST-1 system, consisting of an ultra-cool host star having seven known Earth-size planets will be a prime target for atmospheric characterization with JWST. However, the detectability of atmospheric molecular species may be severely impacted by the presence of clouds and/or hazes. In this work, we perform 3-D General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with the LMD Generic model supplemented by 1-D photochemistry simulations at the terminator with the Atmos model to simulate several possible atmospheres for TRAPPIST-1e, 1f and 1g: 1) modern Earth, 2) Archean Earth, and 3) CO2-rich atmospheres. JWST synthetic transit spectra were computed using the GSFC Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG). We find that TRAPPIST-1e, 1f and 1g atmospheres, with clouds and/or hazes, could be detected using JWST's NIRSpec prism from the CO2 absorption line at 4.3 um in less than 15 transits at 3 sigma or less than 35 transits at 5 sigma. However, our analysis suggests that other gases would require hundreds (or thousands) of transits to be detectable. We also find that H2O, mostly confined in the lower atmosphere, is very challenging to detect for these planets or similar systems if the planets' atmospheres are not in a moist greenhouse state. This result demonstrates that the use of GCMs, self-consistently taking into account the effect of clouds and sub-saturation, is crucial to evaluate the detectability of atmospheric molecules of interest as well as for interpreting future detections in a more global (and thus robust and relevant) approach.

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