arXiv subjects

Thomas J. Vandal

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas J. Vandal.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Distilling deep optical flow stereo methods to retrieve dense three-dimensional wind fields

Geostationary atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) provide the dense horizontal wind vectors (u,v) and heights ingested into data assimilation systems. Traditional AMVs track features using window-based cross-correlation and estimate heights via infrared brightness temperatures paired with numerical weather prediction (NWP) background states, creating a circular dependency that yields inaccurate heights, high computational cost, and sparse retrievals. Stereo winds from GEO-GEO and GEO-LEO geometrically resolve heights from parallax shifts across different poses, eliminating NWP dependence and improving accuracy, but they remain computationally heavy with limited coverage. In this work, we replace window-based tracking in stereo matching with deep optical flow for efficient, improved retrieval. Fine-tuning balances a self-supervised geometric residual loss with supervised radiosonde reconstruction. To eliminate multi-satellite overlap requirements, we distill the stereo teacher into a single-satellite student model. Chi-square and height uncertainties from the teacher are emulated by the student for quality assurance. The student generates winds across full-disk GEO imagery globally. Validation compares stereo and student models against radiosondes, operational AMVs, ERA5 reanalysis, and EarthCARE cloud profiles. Results through triple collocation show that stereo winds improve performance beyond operational AMVs for water vapor bands (6.2, 6.9, and 7.3 {\mu}m), wit degradation in the long-wave infrared (11.2 {\mu}m) band.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Global atmospheric data assimilation with multi-modal masked autoencoders

Global data assimilation enables weather forecasting at all scales and provides valuable data for studying the Earth system. However, the computational demands of physics-based algorithms used in operational systems limits the volume and diversity of observations that are assimilated. Here, we present "EarthNet", a multi-modal foundation model for data assimilation that learns to predict a global gap-filled atmospheric state solely from satellite observations. EarthNet is trained as a masked autoencoder that ingests a 12 hour sequence of observations and learns to fill missing data from other sensors. We show that EarthNet performs a form of data assimilation producing a global 0.16 degree reanalysis dataset of 3D atmospheric temperature and humidity at a fraction of the time compared to operational systems. It is shown that the resulting reanalysis dataset reproduces climatology by evaluating a 1 hour forecast background state against observations. We also show that our 3D humidity predictions outperform MERRA-2 and ERA5 reanalyses by 10% to 60% between the middle troposphere and lower stratosphere (5 to 20 km altitude) and our 3D temperature and humidity are statistically equivalent to the Microwave integrated Retrieval System (MiRS) observations at nearly every level of the atmosphere. Our results indicate significant promise in using EarthNet for high-frequency data assimilation and global weather forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Hybrid physics-AI outperforms numerical weather prediction for extreme precipitation nowcasting

Precipitation nowcasting, critical for flood emergency and river management, has remained challenging for decades, although recent developments in deep generative modeling (DGM) suggest the possibility of improvements. River management centers, such as the Tennessee Valley Authority, have been using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models for nowcasting but have struggled with missed detections even from best-in-class NWP models. While decades of prior research achieved limited improvements beyond advection and localized evolution, recent attempts have shown progress from physics-free machine learning (ML) methods and even greater improvements from physics-embedded ML approaches. Developers of DGM for nowcasting have compared their approaches with optical flow (a variant of advection) and meteorologists' judgment but not with NWP models. Further, they have not conducted independent co-evaluations with water resources and river managers. Here, we show that the state-of-the-art physics-embedded deep generative model, specifically NowcastNet, outperforms the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, the latest generation of NWP, along with advection and persistence, especially for heavy precipitation events. For grid-cell extremes over 16 mm/h, NowcastNet demonstrated a median critical success index (CSI) of 0.30, compared with a median CSI of 0.04 for HRRR. However, despite hydrologically relevant improvements in point-by-point forecasts from NowcastNet, caveats include the overestimation of spatially aggregated precipitation over longer lead times. Our co-evaluation with ML developers, hydrologists, and river managers suggests the possibility of improved flood emergency response and hydropower management.

physics.ao-ph↗