arXiv subjects

Thomas Kupfer

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas Kupfer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Mapping the Landscape of M Dwarf X-ray Flares: New Discoveries in Context

We report the discovery of 11 X-ray flares from 7 M dwarfs previously unknown to exhibit flaring activity, by cross-matching eROSITA observations of bright, nearby M dwarfs with the Chandra telescope archive. To analyze the properties of these flares in a broader context, we compile the sample of all reported X-ray flares from the 15 M dwarfs identified as flaring in the literature. We use this combined sample to derive constraints on the X-ray flare frequency distributions of M0-M6 stars. The average flare occurrence rate we measure is $\sim 10^{-1}\,\rm ks^{-1}$ (corresponding to $\sim 9$ flares per day). The X-ray flares in this sample span energies from $10^{29}\,\rm erg$ to $10^{33}\,\rm erg$ and exhibit a strong correlation between flare strength and duration. The flare properties we characterize include their durations, flux and temperature enhancements, and temporal asymmetries. Using these results and recent simulations of flare-driven atmospheric escape, we derive an upper limit on the time required for habitable Earth-like planets orbiting these M dwarfs to completely lose their atmospheres: 0.5-30 Myr.

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arXiv2026

No Period Change in Two Long-Period AM CVn Binaries

Ultracompact binary systems, consisting of two compact objects in an orbit $\lesssim 0.5 R_\odot$, should exhibit measurable rates of orbital period change ($\dot{P} \neq 0$) due to the emission of gravitational waves (GWs). Measurements of \pdot\ have so far been limited to the shortest-period ultracompact binaries ($\lesssim 20$\,min). Among the AM\,CVn-type subclass, several works have proposed the presence of extra angular momentum loss beyond GW emission, with magnetic braking being a widely discussed mechanism. If present, this magnetic braking would dominate the angular momentum loss of AM\,CVn-type binaries with orbital periods $\gtrsim 30$\,min. In this work, we present a long-term eclipse timing study of two AM\,CVn-type binaries, YZ\,LMi and Gaia14aae, with respective orbital periods of 28.3\,min and 49.7\,min and continuous observations since 2006 and 2015. Both systems show $\dot{P}$ consistent with zero within $2\sigma$. Their $3\sigma$ upper limits are $1.1 \times 10^{-13}\,{\rm s \, s}^{-1}$ and $9.7 \times 10^{-14}\,{\rm s \, s}^{-1}$ respectively. These non-detections are most simply explained by a scenario in which secular angular momentum loss is not substantially stronger than GW emission at all orbital periods, but is combined with deviations from the secular $\dot{P}$ whose timescales span decades but whose amplitude is $\lesssim 10^{-13}\,{\rm s \, s}^{-1}$. %, orders of magnitude smaller than the eclipse timing variations seen in hydrogen-dominated cataclysmic variables. Our non-detections of $\dot{P}$ represent a limit on the strength of any enhanced angular momentum loss beyond pure GW emission.

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arXiv2026

Spectroscopic follow-up of hot subdwarf variables found in ZTF -- Atmospheric and fundamental properties of radial-mode sdB pulsators

Hot subdwarf variables (sdBVs) that display large-amplitude ($>$1%), short-period variability, as a result of radial-mode pulsations, have recently become objects of interest as they show unique properties among the sdBV classes. Since the discovery of objects such as Balloon 090100001 and CS 1246, twelve more have been discovered in the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) survey that display similar characteristics. However, due to lack of broad spectroscopic investigations, it remains unclear whether these objects constitute a distinct class of radial-mode dominant sdBVs that share common atmospheric and fundamental properties. Here we aim to spectroscopically define these peculiar sdBVs as a population. We collected low-resolution spectroscopy on a sample of sdBVs discovered in the ZTF survey, including time-series observations. We fitted the spectra to a grid of theoretical models to determine their mean effective temperature, surface gravity and helium abundance and any corresponding variability. We then use these properties to estimate the mass, radius and luminosity using a spectral energy distribution fitting method. We show that the resulting properties are similar to the radial-mode dominant sdBVs, Balloon 090100001 and CS 1246, and that they are distinguishable from other similar radial-mode pulsators, such as blue large-amplitude pulsators. We find that these stars, on average, have mean effective temperatures of 28,300 K and surface gravity measurements of $\log\,g=5.56$, with changes in these parameters on the order of 1000 K and 0.10 dex, respectively. The location of these stars on the $T_{\textrm{eff}}$ -- $\log\,g$ plane places them on the boundary region between the low-amplitude, multi-periodic V361 Hya and V1093 Her stars, where the hybrid DW Lyn pulsators lie. The masses and radii of the majority of the sdBVs in our sample align with canonical-mass sdB properties.

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arXiv2026

4U 1556-60 as a very faint neutron star X-ray binary at 700 pc with an undetected radio jet

4U 1556-60 is a low-mass X-ray binary that was discovered more than 50 years ago as a persistent X-ray source; however, very little was known about it. Recently, Gaia obtained a parallax for the optical counterpart that places 4U 1556-60 at a distance of only about 700 pc, making it one of the closest X-ray binaries known to date. This close distance drastically alters what was previously assumed about the source. We revisit 4U 1556-60 in light of the newly determined distance of 700 pc, reinterpreting its literature and presenting new X-ray and radio observations to better understand various characteristics of the system. We conclude that a scenario in which 4U 1556-60 is a candidate ultracompact neutron star X-ray binary at a distance of ~700 pc is able to explain the observed properties of the source. It resides at a persistent X-ray luminosity of ~2x10^34 erg/s, an unusual value for a typical X-ray binary, but similar to several ultracompact systems. The ratio of the X-ray to optical luminosity is very high, also suggesting a physically small accretion disk. The radio jet is undetected with a very deep upper limit of 3x10^25 erg/s, which is about 10^3 times fainter than the expected black hole jet correlation, strongly indicating a neutron star accretor. The X-ray spectrum is dominated by a power law, and the X-ray timing properties are also consistent with observations of other very low accretion rate X-ray binaries. No spin or orbital periodicity are found in the X-ray data. Future observations, especially to determine its orbital period, will further aid in understanding 4U 1556-60.

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arXiv2026

A Faint Progenitor System for the Faint Supernova 2024vjm

Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) are well known for their role as standardizable cosmological candles. Their uniformity is credited to their single origin as thermonuclear explosions of White dwarf (WD) stars. Nevertheless, some SNe Ia break this regularity. Prominently, the Iax subclass are less energetic and remarkably diverse, raising questions about their progenitor systems. While no progenitor system of a normal SN Ia has ever been detected, a luminous blue star was identified in pre-explosion images of the site of the bright SN Iax SN 2012Z, suggested to be a helium giant companion star acting as a mass donor to a WD SN progenitor. This is in line with models of weak mass accretion of a WD from a binary companion, producing an explosion that does not fully disrupt the star. However, these models fail to explain the properties of the faintest Type Iax explosions, suggesting either they originate from other WD binary systems, or even from massive progenitor stars. Here, we present the faint SN Iax SN 2024vjm - possibly the faintest supernova observed to date. Using a deep pre-explosion image taken by the recently launched Euclid space mission, we show that its progenitor system must be fainter than the helium giant SN Iax progenitor candidate of SN 2012Z, as well as that of the luminous red companion or remnant of the faint SN 2008ha, and may require a subdwarf helium star as a mass donor. The deep image also provides strong arguments against a massive star origin for this faint supernova. Our observations argue that SN 2024vjm is a WD explosion, but we find that remarkably faint SNe Iax fade more slowly than bright ones, i.e., they evolve in an opposite manner from the famous Phillips relation that makes regular SNe Ia cosmological candles.

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arXiv2026

From Main Sequence Binary to Blast: MESA Modeling of the Double-Detonation Progenitor PTF1~J2238+7430

Hot subdwarf B (sdB) stars in close binaries with white dwarf (WD) companions are potential progenitors of double-detonation thermonuclear supernovae. The recently discovered system PTF1 J2238+7430 is a candidate for this evolutionary channel, hosting a low-mass sdB and a comparatively massive WD in a compact orbit. We aim to reproduce the evolutionary history of PTF1 J2238+7430, in which the sdB forms first via stable mass transfer, followed by the formation of the WD through a subsequent common-envelope (CE) phase. Additionally, we seek to constrain the range of initial binary parameters that can lead to such double-detonation progenitors. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we performed detailed binary evolution simulations from the zero-age main sequence to the present-day configuration. We explored initial stellar masses, orbital periods, and mass-loss fractions, including the effects of angular momentum transfer, tidal synchronization, and gravitational-wave-driven orbital evolution. The post-CE binary properties were derived using the standard energy formalism. Our models successfully reproduce the observed properties of PTF1 J2238+7430, consisting of a 0.406 solar-mass sdB and a 0.72 solar-mass WD in a 76.34-minute orbit. Stable Roche-lobe overflow of an approximately 2.7 solar-mass donor produces the sdB, while the WD forms from the initially less massive companion during an episode of CE evolution. We find that the CE ejection efficiency must be high to match the observed orbit, exceeding canonical values for similar systems. We further delineate the allowed parameter space for initial binaries that can evolve into sdB+WD systems consistent with double-detonation progenitors. These limits are preliminary; a systematic exploration of all parameters is needed for robust constraints, but our results provide a useful starting point for future work.

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arXiv2026

Experiments in binary evolution

The majority of stars more massive than the Sun is found in binary or multiple star systems and many of them will interact during their evolution. Specific interactions, where progenitors and post-mass transfer (MT) systems are clearly linked, can provide yet missing observational constraints. Volume-complete samples of progenitor and post-MT systems are well suited to study those processes. To compile them, we need to determine the parameters of thousands of binary systems with periods spanning several orders of magnitude. The bottleneck are the orbital parameters, because accurate determinations require a good coverage of the orbital phases. The next generation of time-resolved spectroscopic surveys should be optimized to follow-up and solve whole populations of binary systems in an efficient way. To achieve this, a scheduler predicting the best times of the next observation for any given target in real time should be combined with a flexibly schedulable multi-object spectrograph or ideally a network of independent telescopes.

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arXiv2025

The final stages of binary evolution using multi-messenger studies

Ultracompact Galactic binaries with orbital periods below an hour are among the strongest persistent gravitational-wave (GW) sources in the mHz band and will constitute the dominant population detected by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Tens of thousands are predicted to be individually resolved, with a substantial fraction bright enough for electromagnetic (EM) follow-up. This opens an unprecedented multi-messenger window on compact binary evolution, tidal interactions, mass transfer, and the progenitors of Type Ia supernovae. We highlight key science enabled by joint GW + EM constraints and emphasize the critical need for rapid, high-cadence spectroscopic capabilities in the 2040s. In particular, the most compact (<10 min) binaries detected by LISA will require read-noise-free, zero-dead-time spectroscopic facilities, potentially realized through coordinated arrays of telescopes with time-staggered exposures, to measure radial velocities, tidal heating signatures, and orbital evolution with the precision needed for transformative multi-messenger studies.

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arXiv2025

The supernova Ia progenitor problem in the 2040s

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are fundamental to cosmology and galactic chemical evolution, yet the nature of their progenitor systems remains unresolved. Multiple evolutionary pathways, including single-degenerate, double-degenerate, and helium-donor systems, are thought to contribute to the SN Ia population, but direct observational constraints are limited. This uncertainty hampers our understanding of SN Ia diversity and introduces systematic uncertainties in their use as precision cosmological probes. By the 2040s, surveys such as Gaia, LSST, SDSS-V, 4MOST, and the gravitational-wave mission LISA will identify thousands of compact binaries in the Milky Way that are potential SN Ia progenitors. However, survey discoveries alone are insufficient. Robust identification and characterization require high-time-resolution, phase-resolved spectroscopy to determine fundamental parameters such as component masses, orbital inclinations, chemical compositions, and accretion states. Addressing these challenges demands new observational capabilities. The most compact binaries require continuous, dead-time-free spectroscopy with negligible readout noise, while the progenitor population spans a wide range of brightness and orbital periods. A modular, multi-aperture telescope array equipped with fast, low-noise spectrographs can flexibly combine collecting area for faint targets, observe bright systems efficiently, and deliver uninterrupted time series through staggered exposures. Such observations are difficult for single-aperture facilities.

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arXiv2025

Asteroseismology of white dwarfs in the 2040s

White dwarfs, the final evolutionary stage of the vast majority of stars, serve as critical tools for cosmochronology, studies of planetary system evolution, and laboratories for non-standard physics, including exotic cooling channels and weakly interacting particles, as well as crystallization processes. Beyond surface properties accessible via spectroscopy and model atmospheres, global pulsations exhibited by white dwarfs during various evolutionary phases provide a direct window into their deep interiors. Asteroseismology, the comparison of observed pulsation periods with theoretical models, enables us to infer internal chemical stratification, total mass, rotation profiles, and magnetic field strengths. Despite major advances from space missions providing uninterrupted, high-precision photometry, key challenges remain: many predicted pulsators remain quiet, while others oscillate outside theoretical instability strips, highlighting gaps in our understanding of mode excitation, diffusion, and convective mixing. Determining the masses of white dwarfs, particularly for massive and hydrogen-deficient stars, remains uncertain, with discrepancies between spectroscopic, asteroseismic, astrometric, and photometric methods. In the coming decades, large-scale surveys combining high-precision space-based photometry with coordinated ground-based spectroscopic follow-up will dramatically increase both the number and quality of pulsating white dwarf observations.

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arXiv2025

Nova Explosions in 2040

Novae are thermonuclear explosions on the surface of accreting white dwarfs and are key laboratories for studying explosive nucleosynthesis, particle acceleration, shock physics, and binary evolution. Despite major progress driven by wide-field time-domain surveys and multi-wavelength facilities, our understanding of nova explosions remains limited by incomplete temporal coverage, heterogeneous spectroscopic follow-up, and poorly constrained ejecta properties. In this white paper we outline the open scientific questions that will define nova research in the 2040s, focusing on the mass, composition, geometry, and dynamics of the ejecta, the role of the underlying binary system, and the connection between nuclear burning, shocks, and emission across the electromagnetic spectrum. We argue that decisive progress requires rapid-response, high-cadence, multi-wavelength observations, anchored by systematic high-resolution optical and near-infrared spectroscopy from eruption to quiescence. Finally, we identify key technological requirements needed to enable transformative advances in the physics of nova explosions over the coming decades.

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arXiv2025

The ORCA-TWIN qCMOS Experiment I. Science case and commissioning at Calar Alto Observatory

We describe a pilot study to explore a new generation of fast and low noise CMOS image sensors for time domain astronomy, using two remote telescopes with a baseline of 1635 km. The experiment involves direct imaging with novel qCMOS image sensor technology that combines fast readout with sub-electron readout noise. Moreover, synchronized observations from two remote telescope sites will be used to explore new approaches for measuring Solar System bodies, precision stellar photometry, and speckle imaging. A fast-track installation of an ORCA-Quest2 camera at the Calar Alto Observatory 1.23m telescope has demonstrated the potential of the qCMOS technology for time domain astronomy. Numerical simulations suggest that owing to sub-electron readout noise, qCMOS sensors outperform classical CCDs for high-cadence imaging on 1m-class telescopes. The small penalty for post-readout binning, that is almost insignificant in comparison to higher readout noise detectors, opens interesting applications for scene-dependent data processing in direct imaging, and potentially even for spectroscopy.

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arXiv2025

Multi-messenger and time-domain astronomy in the 2040s

Multi-messenger astronomy will be transformed in the 2040s by an unprecedented volume of detections from next-generation gravitational wave, high-energy, and ultra-high energy neutrino, cosmic ray, and time domain observatories. This white paper, prepared for the European Southern Observatory (ESO) Expanding Horizons call, outlines the key science questions enabled by this emerging multi-messenger ecosystem, ranging from nucleosynthesis and dense matter physics to cosmology, fundamental physics, and the growth of black holes across cosmic time. We demonstrate that fully exploiting these discoveries requires a step change in optical to near infrared spectroscopic capability, including low latency response, high throughput, and flexible time domain operations across both hemispheres. We argue that without a dedicated large-aperture time domain facility, the scientific return of multi-messenger astronomy in the 2040s will be considerably limited.

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arXiv2025

White Dwarf Binaries: Probes of Future Astrophysics

White dwarf binaries are fundamental astrophysical probes. They represent ideal laboratories to test the models of binary evolution, which also apply to the sources of gravitational waves, whose detection led to the award of the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics. Moreover, their final fate is intimately linked to Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia), i.e. the thermonuclear explosion of a white dwarf following the interaction with a companion star, which have become the fundamental yardsticks on cosmological distance scales and led to the discovery of dark energy and the award of the 2011 Nobel Prize in Physics. Finally, white dwarf binaries play a crucial role in influencing star formation and chemical evolution of the Galaxy by injecting energy into, and enriching, the interstellar medium with material ejected during nova eruptions and SN Ia explosions. In the next decade, the advent of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) at the Vera Rubin Observatory will lead to the discovery of hundreds of thousands of white dwarf binaries. Nonetheless, the intrinsic faintness of the majority of these systems will prevent their spectroscopic characterisation with the instruments available in the 2030s. Hence ESO's Expanding Horizons call is timely for planning a future transformative facility, capable of delivering phase-resolved spectroscopic observations of faint white dwarf binaries, which are key to advancing our understanding of stellar and Galactic evolution and cosmology.

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arXiv2025

How Mass Flows Through Accretion Discs: A Spectral-Timing Vision for the 2040s

Understanding how mass and angular momentum flow through accretion discs remains a fundamental unsolved problem in astrophysics. Accreting white dwarfs offer an ideal laboratory for addressing this question: their variability occurs on accessible timescales of seconds to minutes, and their optical spectra contain continuum and emission-line components that trace distinct disc regions. Broad-band timing studies have revealed time-lags similar to those observed in X-ray binaries and active galactic nuclei, suggesting propagating fluctuations and possible coupling to an inner hot flow. However, the blending of line and continuum light in broad filters prevents a physical interpretation of these signals. The 2040s will bring an unprecedented number of disc-accreting systems discovered by Rubin-LSST, space-based gravitational-wave observatories, and third-generation ground and space-based detectors. To extract disc physics from these sources, high-cadence optical spectral-timing, simultaneously resolving continuum and individual lines, is essential. Such measurements would directly map how variability propagates through discs, determine how the outer disc responds to changes in the inner flow, and test whether accretion physics is scale-invariant from white dwarfs to supermassive black holes. This white paper outlines the scientific motivation and observational capabilities required to realise this vision. It highlights the opportunity for ESO to enable a transformative new window on accretion physics in the coming decade.

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arXiv2025

Observing Orbital Decay in the Ultracompact Hot Subdwarf Binary System ZTFJ213056.71+442046.5

Ultracompact Galactic binary systems (UCBs) emit low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs). The emission of GWs is causing these systems to lose angular momentum, which is detectable by observing an orbital period decay. ZTFJ213056.71+442046.5 (ZTFJ2130) is an UCB with a period of 39.3401(1) minutes consisting of a Roche lobe-filling hot subdwarf and a white dwarf companion. We attempt to measure the orbital decay rate $\dot{P}$ caused by GW emission of ZTFJ2130 and predict the expected GW signal for LISA. High-speed photometry was conducted using the FLI Kepler KL4040FI CMOS camera, mounted to the 1.2-meter Oskar L\"uhning telescope at the Hamburg Observatory as well as the Hamamatsu ORCA-Quest 2 qCMOS camera at the 1.23-meter telescope at CAHA in Spain. ZTFJ2130 was observed on six nights between August 2024 and September 2025. The obtained lightcurves combined with previous high-cadence observations were used to conduct an O-C timing analysis. Additionally, we employed the LISA data analysis tool ldasoft to model the expected GW data. We measure a period change of $(-1.97\pm0.05)\times10^{-12}\,\mathrm{ss^{-1}}$. Assuming only GW emission, this result was used to calculate a chirp mass of $(0.408\pm0.006)\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$. From ldasoft we predict that LISA will be able to measure the chirp mass with an uncertainty of 5%. We measure $\dot{P}$ with an uncertainty of only 2% and show that modern (q)CMOS detectors are well suited to provide precise timing measurements, enabling the measurement of the orbital decay of UCBs with high precision with modest size telescopes. The derived orbital decay is fully consistent with predictions from spectral and lightcurve modeling. We show that future observations with LISA can potentially provide a deviation from only gravitational wave effects, e.g. due to accretion, if the effect is sufficiently large.

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arXiv2025

Revisiting the extremely long-period cataclysmic variables V479 Andromedae and V1082 Sagitarii

The overwhelming majority of CVs have orbital periods shorter than 10 hr. However, a few have much longer periods, and their formation and existence pose challenges for the CV evolution models. These extremely long-period CVs must host nuclearly evolved donor stars, as otherwise, the companion of the white dwarf would be too small to fill its Roche lobe. This makes them natural laboratories for testing binary evolution models and accretion processes with subgiant donors. To shed light on the formation and evolution of accreting compact objects with subgiant companions, we investigated two extremely long-period CVs in detail, namely V479 And and V1082 Sgr. We searched for reasonable formation pathways to explain their refined stellar and binary parameters. We used a broad set of new observations, including ultraviolet and infrared spectroscopy, results of circular polarimetry, and improved Gaia distance estimates to determine fundamental parameters to be confronted with numerical simulations. Furthermore, we utilized the MESA code to conduct numerical simulations, employing state-of-the-art prescriptions, such as the CARB model for strong magnetic braking. Both systems have unusual chemical compositions and very low masses for their assigned spectral classes. This most likely indicates that they underwent thermal timescale mass transfer. We found models for both that can reasonably reproduce their properties. We conclude that the donor stars in both V479 And and V1082 Sgr are filling their Roche lobes. Our findings suggest that orbital angular momentum loss is stronger due to magnetic braking in CVs with subgiant donors compared to those with unevolved donors. In addition, our findings suggest that extremely long-period CVs could significantly contribute to the population of double white dwarf binaries in close orbits.

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arXiv2025

Precise Parameters for Two LISA Sources

We present precise parameters for two compact double white dwarf binaries, SDSS J232230.20+050942.0 (J2322+0509) and SDSS J063449.92+380352.2 (J0634+3803), with orbital periods of 20 and 26.5 minutes, respectively. These systems will serve as verification sources for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). To significantly improve the electromagnetic (EM) constraints on these two systems and the LISA detectability predictions, we conducted spectroscopic follow-up observations using HST/STIS, Keck I/LRIS, and Keck II/ESI. Our analysis significantly improves the temperature, surface gravity, and mass constraints for both primary and secondary components in J2322+0509, as well as dynamical properties such as radial velocities and orbital periods in both systems. For J2322+0509, we derive an updated inclination of $i$ = 25$^{+4.5}_{-3.0}$ deg, while for J0634+3803, we obtain $i$ = 43$^{+7.0}_{-5.6}$ deg. We assess the detectability of these sources using LDASOFT. Incorporating EM priors on inclination significantly enhances the gravitational wave signal recovery, reducing uncertainties in amplitude by a factor of 2-4 and shortening the detection time by up to a few months. Our results underscore the importance of multi-messenger observations in characterizing double white dwarf binaries and maximizing LISA's early scientific capabilities.

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