arXiv subjects

Thomas Richardson

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas Richardson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Whose Guardrail? User Identity Shapes the Effectiveness of Model Disclaimers in Mitigating LLM Political Persuasion

Politically biased AI can shift users' opinions, yet it remains unclear whether model disclaimers protect against such persuasion. We report a preregistered experiment (N=1,586) examining how disclaimer design and user characteristics shape susceptibility to politically biased AI. We varied whether disclaimers identified political bias versus potential inaccuracies and whether they included an explanation. Participants completed two decision-making tasks with an LLM biased against their political views, with outcomes assessed immediately and one week later. Disclaimers identifying political bias and including an explanation reduced persuasion, but effects varied across contexts and did not persist. Individual differences were more consistent predictors: Republicans were more persuaded and reported higher trust than Democrats across tasks. Similarly, participants who used AI more frequently were also more persuaded, whereas those with greater self-reported AI knowledge were less persuaded. These findings suggest that generic disclaimers are not enough: effective safeguards must account for user heterogeneity and context.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

Informative inference on the average treatment effect with instrumental variables

Policy decisions often depend on whether the average treatment effect (ATE) exceeds a specific cutoff. In instrumental variable (IV) settings, point identification of the ATE requires strong assumptions that are often difficult to justify. Therefore, many researchers shift their attention to identification of the local (L) ATE or target bounds of the ATE. Both strategies have well-known drawbacks: the substantive relevance of the LATE is frequently questioned, and the bounds are often too wide to be informative. We propose a simple sensitivity analysis that allows researchers to maintain focus on the ATE, and then discuss its connection to related bounding procedures. Based on these results, researchers can decide, in a principled manner, whether the sign of the ATE is inferable under assumptions they deem credible. The proposed strategies are easy to apply, and we illustrate their value with two real-data examples. The R package ivate implements our procedures.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Assessing Acceptance and Privacy Preferences of Third-party Financial Data Sharing in Bipolar Disorder

Bipolar disorder is strongly associated with financial instability. We examine how different interventions motivate individuals with bipolar disorder to share financial data with others. This approach can inform the development of tools for digital monitoring and intervention designed to promote financial stability in this population. 500 individuals with BD completed a pre-registered factorial vignette survey to examine level of comfort with hypothetical scenarios involving third-party financial interventions during symptomatic and euthymic periods. Scenario components were systematically varied between third-party actors, mood states, and intervention types. Participants rated sharing comfort on a 0-10 point scale. Multilevel models tested differences alongside clinical and financial histories, relational trust, and personality. Participants were most comfortable involving care partners in financial planning. They were more comfortable with temporary spending restrictions during symptomatic states than euthymic periods, underscoring the importance of accurate mood detection for intervention delivery. Prior financial help-seeking behavior and higher relational trust predicted greater comfort. Bankruptcy experience --- declared by 11.4% and considered by 31.7% --- was associated with increased comfort with spending restrictions. Individuals with psychiatric advance directives (8%) were significantly more comfortable sharing spending behaviors than those without. Comfort with financial interventions was higher among those with prior financial challenges or help-seeking histories. Participants distinguished between symptomatic and euthymic periods, favoring targeted, time-limited restrictions over general monitoring. These findings extend prior work on financial data sharing for illness self-management.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

FAIR^2 Drones: An AI-Ready Standard for Cross-Domain Wildlife Drone Datasets

Animal ecology data collection using drones represents a substantial investment of time, expertise, and financial resources. Yet most existing datasets serve only a single research community, limiting interdisciplinary reuse. We propose a unified drone dataset standard, FAIR^2 Drones, that bridges ecology, robotics, and computer vision by building on existing FAIR and AI-ready data frameworks while adding essential platform metadata and annotation specifications. Our standard enables datasets to simultaneously support ecological analysis, robotics algorithm development, and computer vision benchmarking. We provide open-source validation tools, reference implementations, and multimodal extensions linking drone imagery with complementary sensors such as camera traps, GPS, and acoustics. By standardizing metadata across disciplines, this framework maximizes the scientific return on investment for costly field deployments and accelerates cross-domain collaboration in environmental monitoring.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

Biased AI can Influence Political Decision-Making

As modern large language models (LLMs) become integral to everyday tasks, concerns about their inherent biases and their potential impact on human decision-making have emerged. While bias in models are well-documented, less is known about how these biases influence human decisions. This paper presents two interactive experiments investigating the effects of partisan bias in LLMs on political opinions and decision-making. Participants interacted freely with either a biased liberal, biased conservative, or unbiased control model while completing these tasks. We found that participants exposed to partisan biased models were significantly more likely to adopt opinions and make decisions which matched the LLM's bias. Even more surprising, this influence was seen when the model bias and personal political partisanship of the participant were opposite. However, we also discovered that prior knowledge of AI was weakly correlated with a reduction of the impact of the bias, highlighting the possible importance of AI education for robust mitigation of bias effects. Our findings not only highlight the critical effects of interacting with biased LLMs and its ability to impact public discourse and political conduct, but also highlights potential techniques for mitigating these risks in the future.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

Causal Inference: A Tale of Three Frameworks

Causal inference is a central goal across many scientific disciplines. Over the past several decades, three major frameworks have emerged to formalize causal questions and guide their analysis: the potential outcomes framework, structural equation models, and directed acyclic graphs. Although these frameworks differ in language, assumptions, and philosophical orientation, they often lead to compatible or complementary insights. This paper provides a comparative introduction to the three frameworks, clarifying their connections, highlighting their distinct strengths and limitations, and illustrating how they can be used together in practice. The discussion is aimed at researchers and graduate students with some background in statistics or causal inference who are seeking a conceptual foundation for applying causal methods across a range of substantive domains.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Multiple Randomization Designs: Estimation and Inference with Interference

Classical designs of randomized experiments, going back to Fisher and Neyman in the 1930s still dominate practice even in online experimentation. However, such designs are of limited value for answering standard questions in settings, common in marketplaces, where multiple populations of agents interact strategically, leading to complex patterns of spillover effects. In this paper, we discuss new experimental designs and corresponding estimands to account for and capture these complex spillovers. We derive the finite-sample properties of tractable estimators for main effects, direct effects, and spillovers, and present associated central limit theorems.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Multiple Randomization Designs: Estimation and Inference with Interference

Completely randomized experiments, originally developed by Fisher and Neyman in the 1930s, are still widely used in practice, even in online experimentation. However, such designs are of limited value for answering standard questions in marketplaces, where multiple populations of agents interact strategically, leading to complex patterns of spillover effects. In this paper, we derive the finite-sample properties of tractable estimators for "Simple Multiple Randomization Designs" (SMRDs), a new class of experimental designs which account for complex spillover effects in randomized experiments. Our derivations are obtained under a natural and general form of cross-unit interference, which we call "local interference". We discuss the estimation of main effects, direct effects, and spillovers, and present associated central limit theorems.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

MMLA: Multi-Environment, Multi-Species, Low-Altitude Drone Dataset

Real-time wildlife detection in drone imagery supports critical ecological and conservation monitoring. However, standard detection models like YOLO often fail to generalize across locations and struggle with rare species, limiting their use in automated drone deployments. We present MMLA, a novel multi-environment, multi-species, low-altitude drone dataset collected across three sites (Ol Pejeta Conservancy and Mpala Research Centre in Kenya, and The Wilds in Ohio), featuring six species (zebras, giraffes, onagers, and African wild dogs). The dataset contains 811K annotations from 37 high-resolution videos. Baseline YOLO models show performance disparities across locations while fine-tuning YOLOv11m on MMLA improves mAP50 to 82%, a 52-point gain over baseline. Our results underscore the need for diverse training data to enable robust animal detection in autonomous drone systems.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Robust and efficient multiple-unit switchback experimentation

User-randomized A/B testing has emerged as the gold standard for online experimentation. However, when this kind of approach is not feasible due to legal, ethical or practical considerations, experimenters have to consider alternatives like item-randomization. Item-randomization is often met with skepticism due to its poor empirical performance. To fill this gap, in this paper we introduce a novel and rich class of experimental designs, "Regular Balanced Switchback Designs" (RBSDs). At their core, RBSDs work by randomly changing treatment assignments over both time and items. After establishing the properties of our designs in a potential outcomes framework, characterizing assumptions and conditions under which corresponding estimators are resilient to the presence of carryover effects, we show empirically via both realistic simulations and real e-commerce data that RBSDs systematically outperform standard item-randomized and non-balanced switchback approaches by yielding much more accurate estimates of the causal effects of interest without incurring any additional bias.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Safe Reinforcement Learning with Minimal Supervision

Reinforcement learning (RL) in the real world necessitates the development of procedures that enable agents to explore without causing harm to themselves or others. The most successful solutions to the problem of safe RL leverage offline data to learn a safe-set, enabling safe online exploration. However, this approach to safe-learning is often constrained by the demonstrations that are available for learning. In this paper we investigate the influence of the quantity and quality of data used to train the initial safe learning problem offline on the ability to learn safe-RL policies online. Specifically, we focus on tasks with spatially extended goal states where we have few or no demonstrations available. Classically this problem is addressed either by using hand-designed controllers to generate data or by collecting user-generated demonstrations. However, these methods are often expensive and do not scale to more complex tasks and environments. To address this limitation we propose an unsupervised RL-based offline data collection procedure, to learn complex and scalable policies without the need for hand-designed controllers or user demonstrations. Our research demonstrates the significance of providing sufficient demonstrations for agents to learn optimal safe-RL policies online, and as a result, we propose optimistic forgetting, a novel online safe-RL approach that is practical for scenarios with limited data. Further, our unsupervised data collection approach highlights the need to balance diversity and optimality for safe online exploration.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Supportive Fintech for Individuals with Bipolar Disorder: Financial Data Sharing Preferences to Support Longitudinal Care Management

Financial stability is a key challenge for individuals living with bipolar disorder (BD). Symptomatic periods in BD are associated with poor financial decision-making, contributing to a negative cycle of worsening symptoms and an increased risk of bankruptcy. There has been an increased focus on designing supportive financial technologies (fintech) to address varying and intermittent needs across different stages of BD. However, little is known about this population's expectations and privacy preferences related to financial data sharing for longitudinal care management. To address this knowledge gap, we have deployed a factorial vignette survey using the Contextual Integrity framework. Our data from individuals with BD (N=480) shows that they are open to sharing financial data for long term care management. We have also identified significant differences in sharing preferences across age, gender, and diagnostic subtype. We discuss the implications of these findings in designing equitable fintech to support this marginalized community.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2024

Improved prediction of future user activity in online A/B testing

In online randomized experiments or A/B tests, accurate predictions of participant inclusion rates are of paramount importance. These predictions not only guide experimenters in optimizing the experiment's duration but also enhance the precision of treatment effect estimates. In this paper we present a novel, straightforward, and scalable Bayesian nonparametric approach for predicting the rate at which individuals will be exposed to interventions within the realm of online A/B testing. Our approach stands out by offering dual prediction capabilities: it forecasts both the quantity of new customers expected in future time windows and, unlike available alternative methods, the number of times they will be observed. We derive closed-form expressions for the posterior distributions of the quantities needed to form predictions about future user activity, thereby bypassing the need for numerical algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. After a comprehensive exposition of our model, we test its performance on experiments on real and simulated data, where we show its superior performance with respect to existing alternatives in the literature.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Financial technologies (FinTech) for mental health: The potential of objective financial data to better understand the relationships between financial behavior and mental health

In this paper, we present novel research methods for collecting and analyzing personal financial data alongside mental health factors, illustrated through a N=1 case study using data from one individual with bipolar disorder. While we have not found statistically significant trends nor our findings are generalizable beyond this case, our approach provides an insight into the challenges of accessing objective financial data. We outline what data is currently available, what can be done with it, and what factors to consider when working with financial data. More specifically, using these methods researchers might be able to identify symptomatic traces of mental ill health in personal financial data such as identifying early warning signs and thereby enable preemptive care for individuals with serious mental illnesses. Based on this work, we have also explored future directions for developing interventions to support financial wellbeing. Furthermore, we have described the technical, ethical, and equity challenges for financial data-driven assessments and intervention methods, as well as provided a broad research agenda to address these challenges. By leveraging objective, personalized financial data in a privacy-preserving and ethical manner help lead to a shift in mental health care.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2022

A Bayesian Model for Online Activity Sample Sizes

In many contexts it is useful to predict the number of individuals in some population who will initiate a particular activity during a given period. For example, the number of users who will install a software update, the number of customers who will use a new feature on a website or who will participate in an A/B test. In practical settings, there is heterogeneity amongst individuals with regard to the distribution of time until they will initiate. For these reasons it is inappropriate to assume that the number of new individuals observed on successive days will be identically distributed. Given observations on the number of unique users participating in an initial period, we present a simple but novel Bayesian method for predicting the number of additional individuals who will participate during a subsequent period. We illustrate the performance of the method in predicting sample size in online experimentation.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Quad2Plane: An Intermediate Training Procedure for Online Exploration in Aerial Robotics via Receding Horizon Control

Data driven robotics relies upon accurate real-world representations to learn useful policies. Despite our best-efforts, zero-shot sim-to-real transfer is still an unsolved problem, and we often need to allow our agents to explore online to learn useful policies for a given task. For many applications of field robotics online exploration is prohibitively expensive and dangerous, this is especially true in fixed-wing aerial robotics. To address these challenges we offer an intermediary solution for learning in field robotics. We investigate the use of dissimilar platform vehicle for learning and offer a procedure to mimic the behavior of one vehicle with another. We specifically consider the problem of training fixed-wing aircraft, an expensive and dangerous vehicle type, using a multi-rotor host platform. Using a Model Predictive Control approach, we design a controller capable of mimicking another vehicles behavior in both simulation and the real-world.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2021

Distributed storage algorithms with optimal tradeoffs

One of the primary objectives of a distributed storage system is to reliably store large amounts of source data for long durations using a large number $N$ of unreliable storage nodes, each with $c$ bits of storage capacity. Storage nodes fail randomly over time and are replaced with nodes of equal capacity initialized to zeroes, and thus bits are erased at some rate $e$. To maintain recoverability of the source data, a repairer continually reads data over a network from nodes at an average rate $r$, and generates and writes data to nodes based on the read data. The distributed storage source capacity is the maximum amount of source that can be reliably stored for long periods of time. Previous research shows that asymptotically the distributed storage source capacity is at most $\left(1-\frac{e}{2 \cdot r}\right) \cdot N \cdot c$ as $N$ and $r$ grow. In this work we introduce and analyze algorithms such that asymptotically the distributed storage source data capacity is at least the above equation. Thus, the above equation expresses a fundamental trade-off between network traffic and storage overhead to reliably store source data.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2020

Agile Reactive Navigation for A Non-Holonomic Mobile Robot Using A Pixel Processor Array

This paper presents an agile reactive navigation strategy for driving a non-holonomic ground vehicle around a preset course of gates in a cluttered environment using a low-cost processor array sensor. This enables machine vision tasks to be performed directly upon the sensor's image plane, rather than using a separate general-purpose computer. We demonstrate a small ground vehicle running through or avoiding multiple gates at high speed using minimal computational resources. To achieve this, target tracking algorithms are developed for the Pixel Processing Array and captured images are then processed directly on the vision sensor acquiring target information for controlling the ground vehicle. The algorithm can run at up to 2000 fps outdoors and 200fps at indoor illumination levels. Conducting image processing at the sensor level avoids the bottleneck of image transfer encountered in conventional sensors. The real-time performance of on-board image processing and robustness is validated through experiments. Experimental results demonstrate that the algorithm's ability to enable a ground vehicle to navigate at an average speed of 2.20 m/s for passing through multiple gates and 3.88 m/s for a 'slalom' task in an environment featuring significant visual clutter.

cs.RO↗