arXiv subjects

Thorsten Kurth

Publications and source records attributed to Thorsten Kurth.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Anomalous Diffusion of Tropical Cyclones Observed in Huge Ensembles of Hindcasts

We examine whether tropical cyclones (TCs) obey ordinary Brownian or anomalous diffusion using a huge ensemble (HENS) of hindcasts for summer 2023. Anomalous diffusion has been inferred for actual TCs from the fluctuations in their tracks from the shortest paths between the initiation and termination of each cyclone. We reproduce the same anomalous diffusion power laws connecting spatial position and time using HENS. In addition, we show that the variance in the position of a single TC across HENS since initiation follows a scaling law with time that, in some cases, corresponds to ballistic motion of the TC through the background atmospheric flow. This determination was enabled by the exceptional statistics determined from thousands of plausible yet counterfactual recreations of 34 individual TCs. HENS consists of 7424 15-day hindcasts initiated from observed atmospheric conditions each day from June 1, 2023 to August 31, 2023 using the ECMWF ERA5 meteorological reanalysis. The hindcasts were generated using NVIDIA's Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) machine-learning-based weather and climate emulator. We identify tropical cyclones in HENS using a variant of the Tempest Extremes detection and tracking frameworks for TCs with adjustments to the disposable parameters to minimize the numbers of false positives and negatives relative to the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) records for TCs observed in summer 2023. We conclude with the implications of our findings for the predictability of TC tracks and landfall locations on lead times of days to weeks.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Surface temperature extremes produced by huge machine learning hindcasts of summer 2023

The summer of 2023 brought record-breaking heat extremes across the globe. In this work, we investigate how much worse these extremes might have become, given identical large-scale conditions. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles simulate alternate heatwave storylines, but their limited sample size diminishes their statistical coverage of observed heatwaves and ability to represent worst-case events. Using the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator machine learning (ML) weather model, we generated a huge ensemble of 7,424 storyline forecasts of summer temperature extremes. Despite being constrained by the same initial and boundary conditions and using training data from the same modeling system, the ML ensemble produced extreme heatwave scenarios exceeding temperatures from NWP ensembles. For 30% of global land areas, ML-generated extreme events were outside the prediction envelope from extrapolating smaller NWP ensembles with extreme value theory. This research demonstrates that very large ensembles substantially improve upon NWP-based characterization of worst-case heat extremes.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Examining Fast Radiatively Driven Responses Using Machine-Learning Weather Emulators

The response of the climate system to increased greenhouse gases and other radiative perturbations is governed by a combination of fast and slow feedbacks. Slow feedbacks are typically activated in response to changes in ocean temperatures on decadal timescales and manifest as changes in climatic state with no recent historical analogue. However, fast feedbacks are activated in response to rapid atmospheric physical processes on weekly timescales, and they are already operative in the present-day climate. This distinction implies that the physics of fast radiative feedbacks is present in the historical meteorological reanalyses used to train many recent successful machine-learning-based (ML) emulators of weather and climate. In addition, these feedbacks are functional under the historical boundary conditions pertaining to the top-of-atmosphere radiative balance and sea-surface temperatures. Together, these factors imply that we can use historically trained ML weather emulators to study the response of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), and hence the global hydrological cycle, to perturbations in carbon dioxide and other well-mixed greenhouse gases. Without retraining on prospective Earth system conditions, we use ML weather emulators to quantify the fast precipitation response to reduced and elevated carbon dioxed concentrations with no recent historical precedent. We show that the responses from historically trained emulators agree with those produced by full-physics Earth System Models (ESMs). In conclusion, we discuss the prospects for and advantages from using ESMs and ML emulators to study fast processes in global climate.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Data-driven solar forecasting enables near-optimal economic decisions

Solar energy adoption is critical to achieving net-zero emissions. However, it remains difficult for many industrial and commercial actors to decide on whether they should adopt distributed solar-battery systems, which is largely due to the unavailability of fast, low-cost, and high-resolution irradiance forecasts. Here, we present SunCastNet, a lightweight data-driven forecasting system that provides 0.05$^\circ$, 10-minute resolution predictions of surface solar radiation downwards (SSRD) up to 7 days ahead. SunCastNet, coupled with reinforcement learning (RL) for battery scheduling, reduces operational regret by 76--93\% compared to robust decision making (RDM). In 25-year investment backtests, it enables up to five of ten high-emitting industrial sectors per region to cross the commercial viability threshold of 12\% Internal Rate of Return (IRR). These results show that high-resolution, long-horizon solar forecasts can directly translate into measurable economic gains, supporting near-optimal energy operations and accelerating renewable deployment.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

Surya: Foundation Model for Heliophysics

Heliophysics is central to understanding and forecasting space weather events and solar activity. Despite decades of high-resolution observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), most models remain task-specific and constrained by scarce labeled data, limiting their capacity to generalize across solar phenomena. We introduce Surya, a 366M parameter foundation model for heliophysics designed to learn general-purpose solar representations from multi-instrument SDO observations, including eight Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) channels and five Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) products. Surya employs a spatiotemporal transformer architecture with spectral gating and long--short range attention, pretrained on high-resolution solar image forecasting tasks and further optimized through autoregressive rollout tuning. Zero-shot evaluations demonstrate its ability to forecast solar dynamics and flare events, while downstream fine-tuning with parameter-efficient Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) shows strong performance on solar wind forecasting, active region segmentation, solar flare forecasting, and EUV spectra. Surya is the first foundation model in heliophysics that uses time advancement as a pretext task on full-resolution SDO data. Its novel architecture and performance suggest that the model is able to learn the underlying physics behind solar evolution.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scale

FourCastNet 3 advances global weather modeling by implementing a scalable, geometric machine learning (ML) approach to probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The approach is designed to respect spherical geometry and to accurately model the spatially correlated probabilistic nature of the problem, resulting in stable spectra and realistic dynamics across multiple scales. FourCastNet 3 delivers forecasting accuracy that surpasses leading conventional ensemble models and rivals the best diffusion-based methods, while producing forecasts 8 to 60 times faster than these approaches. In contrast to other ML approaches, FourCastNet 3 demonstrates excellent probabilistic calibration and retains realistic spectra, even at extended lead times of up to 60 days. All of these advances are realized using a purely convolutional neural network architecture tailored for spherical geometry. Scalable and efficient large-scale training on 1024 GPUs and more is enabled by a novel training paradigm for combined model- and data-parallelism, inspired by domain decomposition methods in classical numerical models. Additionally, FourCastNet 3 enables rapid inference on a single GPU, producing a 60-day global forecast at 0.25{\deg}, 6-hourly resolution in under 4 minutes. Its computational efficiency, medium-range probabilistic skill, spectral fidelity, and rollout stability at subseasonal timescales make it a strong candidate for improving meteorological forecasting and early warning systems through large ensemble predictions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Attention on the Sphere

We introduce a generalized attention mechanism for spherical domains, enabling Transformer architectures to natively process data defined on the two-dimensional sphere - a critical need in fields such as atmospheric physics, cosmology, and robotics, where preserving spherical symmetries and topology is essential for physical accuracy. By integrating numerical quadrature weights into the attention mechanism, we obtain a geometrically faithful spherical attention that is approximately rotationally equivariant, providing strong inductive biases and leading to better performance than Cartesian approaches. To further enhance both scalability and model performance, we propose neighborhood attention on the sphere, which confines interactions to geodesic neighborhoods. This approach reduces computational complexity and introduces the additional inductive bias for locality, while retaining the symmetry properties of our method. We provide optimized CUDA kernels and memory-efficient implementations to ensure practical applicability. The method is validated on three diverse tasks: simulating shallow water equations on the rotating sphere, spherical image segmentation, and spherical depth estimation. Across all tasks, our spherical Transformers consistently outperform their planar counterparts, highlighting the advantage of geometric priors for learning on spherical domains.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Modulated Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators for Temporal Interpolation of Weather Forecasts

Weather and climate data are often available at limited temporal resolution, either due to storage limitations, or in the case of weather forecast models based on deep learning, their inherently long time steps. The coarse temporal resolution makes it difficult to capture rapidly evolving weather events. To address this limitation, we introduce an interpolation model that reconstructs the atmospheric state between two points in time for which the state is known. The model makes use of a novel network layer that modifies the adaptive Fourier neural operator (AFNO), which has been previously used in weather prediction and other applications of machine learning to physics problems. The modulated AFNO (ModAFNO) layer takes an embedding, here computed from the interpolation target time, as an additional input and applies a learned shift-scale operation inside the AFNO layers to adapt them to the target time. Thus, one model can be used to produce all intermediate time steps. Trained to interpolate between two time steps 6 h apart, the ModAFNO-based interpolation model produces 1 h resolution intermediate time steps that are visually nearly indistinguishable from the actual corresponding 1 h resolution data. The model reduces the RMSE loss of reconstructing the intermediate steps by approximately 50% compared to linear interpolation. We also demonstrate its ability to reproduce the statistics of extreme weather events such as hurricanes and heat waves better than 6 h resolution data. The ModAFNO layer is generic and is expected to be applicable to other problems, including weather forecasting with tunable lead time.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Toward Capturing Genetic Epistasis From Multivariate Genome-Wide Association Studies Using Mixed-Precision Kernel Ridge Regression

We exploit the widening margin in tensor-core performance between [FP64/FP32/FP16/INT8,FP64/FP32/FP16/FP8/INT8] on NVIDIA [Ampere,Hopper] GPUs to boost the performance of output accuracy-preserving mixed-precision computation of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) of 305K patients from the UK BioBank, the largest-ever GWAS cohort studied for genetic epistasis using a multivariate approach. Tile-centric adaptive-precision linear algebraic techniques motivated by reducing data motion gain enhanced significance with low-precision GPU arithmetic. At the core of Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) techniques for GWAS lie compute-bound cubic-complexity matrix operations that inhibit scaling to aspirational dimensions of the population, genotypes, and phenotypes. We accelerate KRR matrix generation by redesigning the computation for Euclidean distances to engage INT8 tensor cores while exploiting symmetry.We accelerate solution of the regularized KRR systems by deploying a new four-precision Cholesky-based solver, which, at 1.805 mixed-precision ExaOp/s on a nearly full Alps system, outperforms the state-of-the-art CPU-only REGENIE GWAS software by five orders of magnitude.

q-bio.GN↗

arXiv2024

Coarse Graining with Neural Operators for Simulating Chaotic Systems

Accurately predicting the long-term behavior of chaotic systems is crucial for various applications such as climate modeling. However, achieving such predictions typically requires iterative computations over a dense spatiotemporal grid to account for the unstable nature of chaotic systems, which is expensive and impractical in many real-world situations. An alternative approach to such a full-resolved simulation is using a coarse grid and then correcting its errors through a \textit{closure model}, which approximates the overall information from fine scales not captured in the coarse-grid simulation. Recently, ML approaches have been used for closure modeling, but they typically require a large number of training samples from expensive fully-resolved simulations (FRS). In this work, we prove an even more fundamental limitation, i.e., the standard approach to learning closure models suffers from a large approximation error for generic problems, no matter how large the model is, and it stems from the non-uniqueness of the mapping. We propose an alternative end-to-end learning approach using a physics-informed neural operator (PINO) that overcomes this limitation by not using a closure model or a coarse-grid solver. We first train the PINO model on data from a coarse-grid solver and then fine-tune it with (a small amount of) FRS and physics-based losses on a fine grid. The discretization-free nature of neural operators means that they do not suffer from the restriction of a coarse grid that closure models face, and they can provably approximate the long-term statistics of chaotic systems. In our experiments, our PINO model achieves a 330x speedup compared to FRS with a relative error $\sim 10\%$. In contrast, the closure model coupled with a coarse-grid solver is $60$x slower than PINO while having a much higher error $\sim186\%$ when the closure model is trained on the same FRS dataset.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1,000-10,000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part I, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNO), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. Using large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states, and the ML ensemble thus passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar Extreme Forecast Indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Huge Ensembles Part II: Properties of a Huge Ensemble of Hindcasts Generated with Spherical Fourier Neural Operators

In Part I, we created an ensemble based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders of magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part II, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7,424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4$\sigma$ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics in a Machine Learning Earth System Model

Seasonal climate forecasts are socioeconomically important for managing the impacts of extreme weather events and for planning in sectors like agriculture and energy. Climate predictability on seasonal timescales is tied to boundary effects of the ocean on the atmosphere and coupled interactions in the ocean-atmosphere system. We present the Ocean-linked-atmosphere (Ola) model, a high-resolution (0.25{\deg}) Artificial Intelligence/ Machine Learning (AI/ML) coupled earth-system model which separately models the ocean and atmosphere dynamics using an autoregressive Spherical Fourier Neural Operator architecture, with a view towards enabling fast, accurate, large ensemble forecasts on the seasonal timescale. We find that Ola exhibits learned characteristics of ocean-atmosphere coupled dynamics including tropical oceanic waves with appropriate phase speeds, and an internally generated El Ni\~no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) having realistic amplitude, geographic structure, and vertical structure within the ocean mixed layer. We present initial evidence of skill in forecasting the ENSO which compares favorably to the SPEAR model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Neural Operators with Localized Integral and Differential Kernels

Neural operators learn mappings between function spaces, which is practical for learning solution operators of PDEs and other scientific modeling applications. Among them, the Fourier neural operator (FNO) is a popular architecture that performs global convolutions in the Fourier space. However, such global operations are often prone to over-smoothing and may fail to capture local details. In contrast, convolutional neural networks (CNN) can capture local features but are limited to training and inference at a single resolution. In this work, we present a principled approach to operator learning that can capture local features under two frameworks by learning differential operators and integral operators with locally supported kernels. Specifically, inspired by stencil methods, we prove that we obtain differential operators under an appropriate scaling of the kernel values of CNNs. To obtain local integral operators, we utilize suitable basis representations for the kernels based on discrete-continuous convolutions. Both these approaches preserve the properties of operator learning and, hence, the ability to predict at any resolution. Adding our layers to FNOs significantly improves their performance, reducing the relative L2-error by 34-72% in our experiments, which include a turbulent 2D Navier-Stokes and the spherical shallow water equations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Models

Since the weather is chaotic, forecasts aim to predict the distribution of future states rather than make a single prediction. Recently, multiple data driven weather models have emerged claiming breakthroughs in skill. However, these have mostly been benchmarked using deterministic skill scores, and little is known about their probabilistic skill. Unfortunately, it is hard to fairly compare AI weather models in a probabilistic sense, since variations in choice of ensemble initialization, definition of state, and noise injection methodology become confounding. Moreover, even obtaining ensemble forecast baselines is a substantial engineering challenge given the data volumes involved. We sidestep both problems by applying a decades-old idea -- lagged ensembles -- whereby an ensemble can be constructed from a moderately-sized library of deterministic forecasts. This allows the first parameter-free intercomparison of leading AI weather models' probabilistic skill against an operational baseline. The results reveal that two leading AI weather models, i.e. GraphCast and Pangu, are tied on the probabilistic CRPS metric even though the former outperforms the latter in deterministic scoring. We also reveal how multiple time-step loss functions, which many data-driven weather models have employed, are counter-productive: they improve deterministic metrics at the cost of increased dissipation, deteriorating probabilistic skill. This is confirmed through ablations applied to a spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) approach to AI weather forecasting. Separate SFNO ablations modulating effective resolution reveal it has a useful effect on ensemble dispersion relevant to achieving good ensemble calibration. We hope these and forthcoming insights from lagged ensembles can help guide the development of AI weather forecasts and have thus shared the diagnostic code.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Advancing Parsimonious Deep Learning Weather Prediction using the HEALPix Mesh

We present a parsimonious deep learning weather prediction model to forecast seven atmospheric variables with 3-h time resolution for up to one-year lead times on a 110-km global mesh using the Hierarchical Equal Area isoLatitude Pixelization (HEALPix). In comparison to state-of-the-art (SOTA) machine learning (ML) weather forecast models, such as Pangu-Weather and GraphCast, our DLWP-HPX model uses coarser resolution and far fewer prognostic variables. Yet, at one-week lead times, its skill is only about one day behind both SOTA ML forecast models and the SOTA numerical weather prediction model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We report several improvements in model design, including switching from the cubed sphere to the HEALPix mesh, inverting the channel depth of the U-Net, and introducing gated recurrent units (GRU) on each level of the U-Net hierarchy. The consistent east-west orientation of all cells on the HEALPix mesh facilitates the development of location-invariant convolution kernels that successfully propagate weather patterns across the globe without requiring separate kernels for the polar and equatorial faces of the cube sphere. Without any loss of spectral power after the first two days, the model can be unrolled autoregressively for hundreds of steps into the future to generate realistic states of the atmosphere that respect seasonal trends, as showcased in one-year simulations.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Spherical Fourier Neural Operators: Learning Stable Dynamics on the Sphere

Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs) have proven to be an efficient and effective method for resolution-independent operator learning in a broad variety of application areas across scientific machine learning. A key reason for their success is their ability to accurately model long-range dependencies in spatio-temporal data by learning global convolutions in a computationally efficient manner. To this end, FNOs rely on the discrete Fourier transform (DFT), however, DFTs cause visual and spectral artifacts as well as pronounced dissipation when learning operators in spherical coordinates since they incorrectly assume a flat geometry. To overcome this limitation, we generalize FNOs on the sphere, introducing Spherical FNOs (SFNOs) for learning operators on spherical geometries. We apply SFNOs to forecasting atmospheric dynamics, and demonstrate stable auto\-regressive rollouts for a year of simulated time (1,460 steps), while retaining physically plausible dynamics. The SFNO has important implications for machine learning-based simulation of climate dynamics that could eventually help accelerate our response to climate change.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

FourCastNet: Accelerating Global High-Resolution Weather Forecasting using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators

Extreme weather amplified by climate change is causing increasingly devastating impacts across the globe. The current use of physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) limits accuracy due to high computational cost and strict time-to-solution limits. We report that a data-driven deep learning Earth system emulator, FourCastNet, can predict global weather and generate medium-range forecasts five orders-of-magnitude faster than NWP while approaching state-of-the-art accuracy. FourCast-Net is optimized and scales efficiently on three supercomputing systems: Selene, Perlmutter, and JUWELS Booster up to 3,808 NVIDIA A100 GPUs, attaining 140.8 petaFLOPS in mixed precision (11.9%of peak at that scale). The time-to-solution for training FourCastNet measured on JUWELS Booster on 3,072GPUs is 67.4minutes, resulting in an 80,000times faster time-to-solution relative to state-of-the-art NWP, in inference. FourCastNet produces accurate instantaneous weather predictions for a week in advance, enables enormous ensembles that better capture weather extremes, and supports higher global forecast resolutions.

physics.ao-ph↗