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Thuc Duy Le

Publications and source records attributed to Thuc Duy Le.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Peer Effects in Signed Networks: Separating Influence Through Positive and Negative Ties

Evaluating network interventions requires understanding how treatment affects people through their social relationships. Counting treated neighbors without distinguishing supportive and antagonistic ties can conceal opposing influences. We define effects through positive and negative ties, their interaction, and a sign-composition effect of reallocating treatment between the two types at a fixed total, and give their identification formulas. Under sign-blind assignment, we show how ignoring signs mixes the effects of the two tie types. We propose SiDE (Signed-exposure Doubly robust Estimator), which combines sign-specific outcome models with exposure probabilities induced by individual treatment assignment. We establish double robustness of its score and assess approximate intervals that account for overlapping neighborhoods. Semi-synthetic experiments on six real signed networks demonstrate accurate effect estimation and examine the limits of interval coverage. An exploratory reanalysis of published school-experiment data yields a positive estimate of the peer effect through spend-time ties on wristband wearing, but the intervals for all four effects include zero after adjustment for multiple comparisons. This framework can inform network intervention design by showing when influences through the two tie types reinforce or offset one another.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Causal-Aware Tabular GANs with Reinforcement Learning

Existing tabular data generation methods primarily focus on matching statistical distributions between real and synthetic data, often overlooking the preservation of underlying causal relationships. As a result, generated samples may appear realistic while failing to maintain the causal structure required for reliable downstream analysis. We propose CA-GAN, a causal-aware generative framework for tabular data synthesis that explicitly incorporates causal knowledge into both the training and generation processes. CA-GAN first extracts a causal graph from real data to provide structural prior knowledge, then employs a graph-conditioned Conditional WGAN-GP whose sub-generators model variables according to their causal dependencies. More importantly, we introduce a reinforcement learning-based objective that treats causal graph discrepancy between real and synthetic data as a reward signal, enabling causal consistency to become an explicit optimization target during training rather than an implicit consequence of sampling order. Extensive experiments on 14 synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that CA-GAN consistently outperforms seven state-of-the-art baselines in causal preservation while achieving strong downstream utility, privacy preservation, and data quality. These results show that CA-GAN provides an effective and practical solution for generating high-quality synthetic tabular data that better respects underlying causal mechanisms.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Lightweight Wrappers for Adapting Time Series Foundation Models to Regional Drought Forecasting

Large \emph{Time Series Foundation Models} (TSFMs) demonstrate strong zero-shot forecasting capabilities across diverse domains. However, their application to regional climate forecasting faces practical challenges: model weights are often proprietary, local training records are limited, and computational budgets are constrained, making traditional fine-tuning approaches infeasible. To address these constraints, we introduce a lightweight, black-box adaptation framework (requiring no access to backbone parameters and no backbone fine-tuning) that enhances frozen TSFMs at inference time through two plug-and-play wrappers: \textbf{SMR\textsuperscript{2}} (Stationarity aware multi-resolution Residual), which decomposes the input into multi-resolution temporal views, learns stride specific residual corrections that capture regional dynamics, then adaptively ensembles them into a single forecast, and \textbf{MBB} (Moving Block Bootstrap), which preserves temporal dependencies through block resampling and ensembles over temporally coherent residual perturbations to stabilize the point forecast. Both wrappers instantiate the same bagging style principle: they build diverse views of the input or its residuals, forecast each with the same frozen backbone, and aggregate, so all adaptation comes from inference time ensembling rather than any weight update. Evaluated on one month ahead Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) prediction across multiple sites in South Australia, our framework consistently improves forecasting performance across several backbone models, demonstrating up to 26\% mean squared error (MSE) reduction over the corresponding frozen backbone while enabling practical deployment in resource constrained regional forecasting systems.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Transportable Causal Effect Estimation across Networks under Interference

Estimating causal effects under network interference typically assumes that the network used for training and the network used for deployment coincide. In practice, an intervention is run on one population while the question of interest concerns a different population, and the two generally differ in topology, node-covariate composition, and spillover pathways. Transporting a causal effect across networks is therefore a data-fusion problem that no existing algorithm solves. We employ a selection diagram, extended to the network setting so that covariate shift and structural network shift enter as separate selectors, and derive from it a transport formula for the direct, spillover, and total effects in the deployment population. Each formula makes explicit which interventional mechanism is assumed invariant and which observational distribution must be reweighted. We then turn the formulas into TranCE (Transported Causal Effects), a doubly-robust algorithm combining an interventional outcome model, a domain density-ratio correction, and cross-fitted inference. Extensive experiments on two semi-synthetic benchmarks derived from real-world social networks and on a fully real weather-insurance field experiment, where the transported effects are checked against held-out randomized estimates, confirm the effectiveness of our approach. Our findings have the potential to improve intervention strategies in networked systems, particularly in social networks and public health.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

LLM as Detector: An In-context Learning Approach for Tabular Anomaly Detection

Anomaly detection in tabular data is challenging because abnormal samples often arise as violations of cross-feature dependencies rather than simple marginal deviations. Existing detectors rely on geometric or reconstruction signals, while prior LLM-based approaches mainly fine-tune LLMs with normal samples or generate synthetic anomalies. We propose LLM-Detector, a framework that utilizes the in-context learning capacity of LLMs for structured, prompt-conditioned scoring synthesis, enabling LLMs to derive anomaly detection logic from structured normal-state knowledge. Specifically, normal training data are converted into statistical summaries, causal dependencies, and distilled prototypes that are organized into a prompt for code generation. The resulting scoring engine evaluates statistical deviation, structural inconsistency, and density-based abnormality then computes an anomaly score for each test sample. We evaluate LLM-Detector on 24 tabular datasets, comparing against 15 SOTA baselines. Results show consistent improvements across both mixed-type and continuous-only settings. Moreover, this design eliminates the need for LLM fine-tuning or neural network training, reducing computational cost and enabling practical anomaly detection in real-world tabular systems.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Residual-Guided Multi-Resolution Refinement of Foundation Models: A Case Study in Drought Forecasting

Regional climate prediction presents unique challenges for time series foundation models, which typically process temporal patterns through single-pass inference. Expert climatologists, in contrast, employ multi-scale temporal analysis and iterative refinement based on systematic error diagnosis. We present RGMR (Residual-Guided Multi-Resolution Refinement), an inference-time framework that adapts pre-trained foundation models to perform structured coarse-to-fine refinement for climate forecasting without updating backbone parameters. Applied to drought forecasting using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), RGMR is architecture-agnostic across the three TSFM backbones evaluated per site (TimesFM, TimeGPT, TabPFN) and consistently lowers test-set MSE on three South Australian sites and three additional regions outside South Australia. Applied to TimesFM, the wrapper reduces one-month-ahead SPEI MSE by up to 18.9\% across the three South Australian sites (mean reduction $\approx$18.7\%). Overall, RGMR provides a practical route for deploying frozen TSFMs in regional climate forecasting workflows.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

uLEAD-TabPFN: Uncertainty-aware Dependency-based Anomaly Detection with TabPFN

Anomaly detection in tabular data is challenging due to high dimensionality, complex feature dependencies, and heterogeneous noise. Many existing methods rely on proximity-based cues and may miss anomalies caused by violations of complex feature dependencies. Dependency-based anomaly detection provides a principled alternative by identifying anomalies as violations of dependencies among features. However, existing methods often struggle to model such dependencies robustly and to scale to high-dimensional data with complex dependency structures. To address these challenges, we propose uLEAD-TabPFN, a dependency-based anomaly detection framework built on Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). uLEAD-TabPFN identifies anomalies as violations of conditional dependencies in a learned latent space, leveraging frozen PFNs for dependency estimation. Combined with uncertainty-aware scoring, the proposed framework enables robust and scalable anomaly detection. Experiments on 57 tabular datasets from ADBench show that uLEAD-TabPFN achieves particularly strong performance in medium- and high-dimensional settings, where it attains the top average rank. On high-dimensional datasets, uLEAD-TabPFN improves the average ROC-AUC by nearly 20\% over the average baseline and by approximately 2.8\% over the best-performing baseline, while maintaining overall superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods. Further analysis shows that uLEAD-TabPFN provides complementary anomaly detection capability, achieving strong performance on datasets where many existing methods struggle.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Identifying the Group to Intervene on to Maximise Effect Under Cross-Group Interference

In many networked systems, interventions applied to one group of units can induce substantial causal effects on another group through cross-group interference pathways. Despite its practical importance in domains such as public health, digital marketing, and social policy, the problem of identifying which intervention subset in a source group maximizes the benefit on a target group remains largely unaddressed. We formalize this problem as cross-group causal influence estimation and introduce the core-to-group causal effect (Co2G), a formally defined causal estimand that quantifies the contrast in target-group outcomes under intervention versus non-intervention on a candidate source subset. We establish the nonparametric identifiability of Co2G from observational network data using do-calculus under standard causal assumptions, and develop a graph neural network-based estimator that captures cross-group interference patterns. To navigate the combinatorial search space of candidate subsets, we propose CauMax, an uncertainty-aware causal effect maximization framework with two scalable selection algorithms: (i)CauMax-G, an iterative greedy search with Monte Carlo dropout--based lower confidence bounds, and (ii)CauMax-D, a differentiable gradient-based optimization via Gumbel-Softmax relaxation. Extensive experiments on two real-world social networks demonstrate that CauMax achieves an order-of-magnitude reduction in regret compared with structural heuristics and diffusion-based baselines, and that moderate uncertainty penalization consistently improves subset selection quality.

cs.SI↗
arXiv2025

From Correlation to Causation: Max-Pooling-Based Multi-Instance Learning Leads to More Robust Whole Slide Image Classification

In whole slide images (WSIs) analysis, attention-based multi-instance learning (MIL) models are susceptible to spurious correlations and degrade under domain shift. These methods may assign high attention weights to non-tumor regions, such as staining biases or artifacts, leading to unreliable tumor region localization. In this paper, we revisit max-pooling-based MIL methods from a causal perspective. Under mild assumptions, our theoretical results demonstrate that max-pooling encourages the model to focus on causal factors while ignoring bias-related factors. Furthermore, we discover that existing max-pooling-based methods may overfit the training set through rote memorization of instance features and fail to learn meaningful patterns. To address these issues, we propose FocusMIL, which couples max-pooling with an instance-level variational information bottleneck (VIB) to learn compact, predictive latent representations, and employs a multi-bag mini-batch scheme to stabilize optimization. We conduct comprehensive experiments on three real-world datasets and one semi-synthetic dataset. The results show that, by capturing causal factors, FocusMIL exhibits significant advantages in out-of-distribution scenarios and instance-level tumor region localization tasks.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2025

From Noise to Precision: A Diffusion-Driven Approach to Zero-Inflated Precipitation Prediction

Zero-inflated data pose significant challenges in precipitation forecasting due to the predominance of zeros with sparse non-zero events. To address this, we propose the Zero Inflation Diffusion Framework (ZIDF), which integrates Gaussian perturbation for smoothing zero-inflated distributions, Transformer-based prediction for capturing temporal patterns, and diffusion-based denoising to restore the original data structure. In our experiments, we use observational precipitation data collected from South Australia along with synthetically generated zero-inflated data. Results show that ZIDF demonstrates significant performance improvements over multiple state-of-the-art precipitation forecasting models, achieving up to 56.7\% reduction in MSE and 21.1\% reduction in MAE relative to the baseline Non-stationary Transformer. These findings highlight ZIDF's ability to robustly handle sparse time series data and suggest its potential generalizability to other domains where zero inflation is a key challenge.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Deconfounding Multi-Cause Latent Confounders: A Factor-Model Approach to Climate Model Bias Correction

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, the GCM Outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate representation of complex climate phenomena. Traditional bias correction methods, which rely on historical observation data and statistical techniques, often neglect unobserved confounders, leading to biased results. This paper proposes a novel bias correction approach to utilize both GCM and observational data to learn a factor model that captures multi-cause latent confounders. Inspired by recent advances in causality based time series deconfounding, our method first constructs a factor model to learn latent confounders from historical data and then applies them to enhance the bias correction process using advanced time series forecasting models. The experimental results demonstrate significant improvements in the accuracy of precipitation outputs. By addressing unobserved confounders, our approach offers a robust and theoretically grounded solution for climate model bias correction.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2024

Disentangled Representation Learning for Causal Inference with Instruments

Latent confounders are a fundamental challenge for inferring causal effects from observational data. The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a practical way to address this challenge. Existing IV based estimators need a known IV or other strong assumptions, such as the existence of two or more IVs in the system, which limits the application of the IV approach. In this paper, we consider a relaxed requirement, which assumes there is an IV proxy in the system without knowing which variable is the proxy. We propose a Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) based disentangled representation learning method to learn an IV representation from a dataset with latent confounders and then utilise the IV representation to obtain an unbiased estimation of the causal effect from the data. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data have demonstrated that the proposed algorithm outperforms the existing IV based estimators and VAE-based estimators.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Linking Model Intervention to Causal Interpretation in Model Explanation

Intervention intuition is often used in model explanation where the intervention effect of a feature on the outcome is quantified by the difference of a model prediction when the feature value is changed from the current value to the baseline value. Such a model intervention effect of a feature is inherently association. In this paper, we will study the conditions when an intuitive model intervention effect has a causal interpretation, i.e., when it indicates whether a feature is a direct cause of the outcome. This work links the model intervention effect to the causal interpretation of a model. Such an interpretation capability is important since it indicates whether a machine learning model is trustworthy to domain experts. The conditions also reveal the limitations of using a model intervention effect for causal interpretation in an environment with unobserved features. Experiments on semi-synthetic datasets have been conducted to validate theorems and show the potential for using the model intervention effect for model interpretation.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

TSI: A Multi-View Representation Learning Approach for Time Series Forecasting

As the growing demand for long sequence time-series forecasting in real-world applications, such as electricity consumption planning, the significance of time series forecasting becomes increasingly crucial across various domains. This is highlighted by recent advancements in representation learning within the field. This study introduces a novel multi-view approach for time series forecasting that innovatively integrates trend and seasonal representations with an Independent Component Analysis (ICA)-based representation. Recognizing the limitations of existing methods in representing complex and high-dimensional time series data, this research addresses the challenge by combining TS (trend and seasonality) and ICA (independent components) perspectives. This approach offers a holistic understanding of time series data, going beyond traditional models that often miss nuanced, nonlinear relationships. The efficacy of TSI model is demonstrated through comprehensive testing on various benchmark datasets, where it shows superior performance over current state-of-the-art models, particularly in multivariate forecasting. This method not only enhances the accuracy of forecasting but also contributes significantly to the field by providing a more in-depth understanding of time series data. The research which uses ICA for a view lays the groundwork for further exploration and methodological advancements in time series forecasting, opening new avenues for research and practical applications.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Robust COVID-19 Detection in CT Images with CLIP

In the realm of medical imaging, particularly for COVID-19 detection, deep learning models face substantial challenges such as the necessity for extensive computational resources, the paucity of well-annotated datasets, and a significant amount of unlabeled data. In this work, we introduce the first lightweight detector designed to overcome these obstacles, leveraging a frozen CLIP image encoder and a trainable multilayer perception (MLP). Enhanced with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for robustness and a loss landscape flattening strategy for improved generalization, our model is tailored for high efficacy in COVID-19 detection. Furthermore, we integrate a teacher-student framework to capitalize on the vast amounts of unlabeled data, enabling our model to achieve superior performance despite the inherent data limitations. Experimental results on the COV19-CT-DB dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, surpassing baseline by up to 10.6% in `macro' F1 score in supervised learning. The code is available at https://github.com/Purdue-M2/COVID-19_Detection_M2_PURDUE.

eess.IV↗
arXiv2024

Dependency-based Anomaly Detection: a General Framework and Comprehensive Evaluation

Anomaly detection is crucial for understanding unusual behaviors in data, as anomalies offer valuable insights. This paper introduces Dependency-based Anomaly Detection (DepAD), a general framework that utilizes variable dependencies to uncover meaningful anomalies with better interpretability. DepAD reframes unsupervised anomaly detection as supervised feature selection and prediction tasks, which allows users to tailor anomaly detection algorithms to their specific problems and data. We extensively evaluate representative off-the-shelf techniques for the DepAD framework. Two DepAD algorithms emerge as all-rounders and superior performers in handling a wide range of datasets compared to nine state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods. Additionally, we demonstrate that DepAD algorithms provide new and insightful interpretations for detected anomalies.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Instrumental Variable Estimation for Causal Inference in Longitudinal Data with Time-Dependent Latent Confounders

Causal inference from longitudinal observational data is a challenging problem due to the difficulty in correctly identifying the time-dependent confounders, especially in the presence of latent time-dependent confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) is a powerful tool for addressing the latent confounders issue, but the traditional IV technique cannot deal with latent time-dependent confounders in longitudinal studies. In this work, we propose a novel Time-dependent Instrumental Factor Model (TIFM) for time-varying causal effect estimation from data with latent time-dependent confounders. At each time-step, the proposed TIFM method employs the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture to infer latent IV, and then uses the inferred latent IV factor for addressing the confounding bias caused by the latent time-dependent confounders. We provide a theoretical analysis for the proposed TIFM method regarding causal effect estimation in longitudinal data. Extensive evaluation with synthetic datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of TIFM in addressing causal effect estimation over time. We further apply TIFM to a climate dataset to showcase the potential of the proposed method in tackling real-world problems.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Data-Driven Causal Effect Estimation Based on Graphical Causal Modelling: A Survey

In many fields of scientific research and real-world applications, unbiased estimation of causal effects from non-experimental data is crucial for understanding the mechanism underlying the data and for decision-making on effective responses or interventions. A great deal of research has been conducted to address this challenging problem from different angles. For estimating causal effect in observational data, assumptions such as Markov condition, faithfulness and causal sufficiency are always made. Under the assumptions, full knowledge such as, a set of covariates or an underlying causal graph, is typically required. A practical challenge is that in many applications, no such full knowledge or only some partial knowledge is available. In recent years, research has emerged to use search strategies based on graphical causal modelling to discover useful knowledge from data for causal effect estimation, with some mild assumptions, and has shown promise in tackling the practical challenge. In this survey, we review these data-driven methods on causal effect estimation for a single treatment with a single outcome of interest and focus on the challenges faced by data-driven causal effect estimation. We concisely summarise the basic concepts and theories that are essential for data-driven causal effect estimation using graphical causal modelling but are scattered around the literature. We identify and discuss the challenges faced by data-driven causal effect estimation and characterise the existing methods by their assumptions and the approaches to tackling the challenges. We analyse the strengths and limitations of the different types of methods and present an empirical evaluation to support the discussions. We hope this review will motivate more researchers to design better data-driven methods based on graphical causal modelling for the challenging problem of causal effect estimation.

cs.AI↗