arXiv subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Tian Guo.
In this paper, we study the ability to make the short-term prediction of the exchange price fluctuations towards the United States dollar for the Bitcoin market. We use the data of realized volatility collected from one of the largest Bitcoin digital trading offices in 2016 and 2017 as well as order information. Experiments are performed to evaluate a variety of statistical and machine learning approaches.
Matrix factorization techniques have been widely used as a method for collaborative filtering for recommender systems. In recent times, different variants of deep learning algorithms have been explored in this setting to improve the task of making a personalized recommendation with user-item interaction data. The idea that the mapping between the latent user or item factors and the original features is highly nonlinear suggest that classical matrix factorization techniques are no longer sufficient. In this paper, we propose a multilayer nonlinear semi-nonnegative matrix factorization method, with the motivation that user-item interactions can be modeled more accurately using a linear combination of non-linear item features. Firstly, we learn latent factors for representations of users and items from the designed multilayer nonlinear Semi-NMF approach using explicit ratings. Secondly, the architecture built is compared with deep-learning algorithms like Restricted Boltzmann Machine and state-of-the-art Deep Matrix factorization techniques. By using both supervised rate prediction task and unsupervised clustering in latent item space, we demonstrate that our proposed approach achieves better generalization ability in prediction as well as comparable representation ability as deep matrix factorization in the clustering task.
In this paper, we propose multi-variable LSTM capable of accurate forecasting and variable importance interpretation for time series with exogenous variables. Current attention mechanism in recurrent neural networks mostly focuses on the temporal aspect of data and falls short of characterizing variable importance. To this end, the multi-variable LSTM equipped with tensorized hidden states is developed to learn hidden states for individual variables, which give rise to our mixture temporal and variable attention. Based on such attention mechanism, we infer and quantify variable importance. Extensive experiments using real datasets with Granger-causality test and the synthetic dataset with ground truth demonstrate the prediction performance and interpretability of multi-variable LSTM in comparison to a variety of baselines. It exhibits the prospect of multi-variable LSTM as an end-to-end framework for both forecasting and knowledge discovery.
Modern mobile applications are benefiting significantly from the advancement in deep learning, e.g., implementing real-time image recognition and conversational system. Given a trained deep learning model, applications usually need to perform a series of matrix operations based on the input data, in order to infer possible output values. Because of computational complexity and size constraints, these trained models are often hosted in the cloud. To utilize these cloud-based models, mobile apps will have to send input data over the network. While cloud-based deep learning can provide reasonable response time for mobile apps, it restricts the use case scenarios, e.g. mobile apps need to have network access. With mobile specific deep learning optimizations, it is now possible to employ on-device inference. However, because mobile hardware, such as GPU and memory size, can be very limited when compared to its desktop counterpart, it is important to understand the feasibility of this new on-device deep learning inference architecture. In this paper, we empirically evaluate the inference performance of three Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) using a benchmark Android application we developed. Our measurement and analysis suggest that on-device inference can cost up to two orders of magnitude greater response time and energy when compared to cloud-based inference, and that loading model and computing probability are two performance bottlenecks for on-device deep inferences.
In this paper, we propose an interpretable LSTM recurrent neural network, i.e., multi-variable LSTM for time series with exogenous variables. Currently, widely used attention mechanism in recurrent neural networks mostly focuses on the temporal aspect of data and falls short of characterizing variable importance. To this end, our multi-variable LSTM equipped with tensorized hidden states is developed to learn variable specific representations, which give rise to both temporal and variable level attention. Preliminary experiments demonstrate comparable prediction performance of multi-variable LSTM w.r.t. encoder-decoder based baselines. More interestingly, variable importance in real datasets characterized by the variable attention is highly in line with that determined by statistical Granger causality test, which exhibits the prospect of multi-variable LSTM as a simple and uniform end-to-end framework for both forecasting and knowledge discovery.