arXiv subjects

Tian Zheng

Publications and source records attributed to Tian Zheng.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Joint Text-Audio Alignment for EEG-to-Text Decoding in Chinese Speech Production and Perception

Decoding speech information directly from scalp electroencephalography (EEG) into text provides a potential non-invasive neural communication pathway for individuals with severe speech and motor impairments. Compared with invasive approaches such as electrocorticography, EEG is safer and more widely deployable, yet substantially more challenging to decode.This challenge is exacerbated for Chinese sentence decoding, which must handle a high-dimensional output space with thousands of characters, severe inter-subject variability, and low signal-to-noise ratios for text alignment.Existing methods commit to a single supervisory axis---either text semantics or audio acoustic features---yet neither can simultaneously satisfy the demands of sentence-level discriminability and fine-grained temporal resolution required for large-vocabulary Chinese decoding. We introduce EEGAlign, a novel parameter-efficient framework that jointly aligns EEG with two axes---text alignment with BGE-M3 text embeddings and audio alignment with wav2vec~2.0 speech features via contrastive learning followed by CTC character-sequence decoding. On ChineseEEG-2 data, EEGAlign yields state-of-the-art closed-set sentence classification performance, reaching up to 82.37% Top-1 accuracy on Reading Aloud EEG and 41.43% on Passive Listening EEG out of 101 candidates. Ablation studies show that the two alignment axes are highly complementary: combining them yields consistently better performance than either alone. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study on decoding large-vocabulary Chinese sentences from non-invasive EEG during overt speech production, and achieving strong classification performance with relatively large closed-set candidate-sentence setting.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

SPECTRA: State-Space Exogenous Context and Temporal-Frequency Resolution Architecture for Probabilistic Energy Forecasting

Modern power systems increasingly require probabilistic forecasts amid interacting uncertainties from renewable intermittency, flexible demand, market volatility, and weather-dependent generation. However, existing methods often treat multi-scale decomposition, exogenous-variable alignment, and probabilistic output as separate steps, obscuring how predictable structures and uncertainty-bearing fluctuations jointly shape the forecast distribution. This paper proposes a state-space exogenous-context and temporal-frequency resolution architecture for general probabilistic energy forecasting. Its central premise is that trend-periodic components primarily determine the baseline trajectory, whereas high-frequency residuals and external perturbations govern the spread and asymmetry of forecast uncertainty. Accordingly, the architecture adaptively separates deterministic and residual streams, aligns exogenous context with both, refines the deterministic backbone through multi-resolution spectral-temporal state-space modeling, and estimates ordered quantile boundaries from their complementary representations. Experiments on load, price, solar, and wind forecasting achieve the best continuous ranked probability score in 14 of 18 settings, reducing average CRPS by 5.74\% and upper-tail quantile risk by 7.27\% over the strongest baselines. These results support deterministic-stochastic separation as an effective design principle for general probabilistic energy forecasting.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

AEVAL: From Anecdotal to Deterministic Testing for Agentic Skill Workflows

Modern agentic systems increasingly rely on skills: installable packages of natural language and code that teach an LLM agent to perform a domain task. As skill repositories grow, developers need automated quality signals on every change, yet evaluation today is largely anecdotal: a developer asks an agent to "try the skill," watches a demo, and forms a subjective impression. This yields neither reproducibility across runs nor comparability across versions, and scales poorly to marketplaces where one regression can silently break dozens of downstream workflows. We present AEVAL (Agentic Evaluation), a CI-integrated framework that replaces this practice with a deterministic, reproducible test pipeline for agentic skills. Every skill change triggers a test event: the skill runs against a developer declared evaluation contract inside an automated executor, emitting a structured, evidence grounded quality signal that downstream CI can route on. A key ingredient is a structural separation between executor and grader, preventing a subtle but pervasive failure mode: an agent that silently self-corrects during execution and then grades its own patched outputs as passing. Our contributions are: (i) a deterministic, change-triggered evaluation protocol with per-skill contracts and per-run artifact schemas; (ii) a formalization of self correction bias as a distinct failure mode of naive agentic evaluators; (iii) an executor/grader separation with a first-attempt grading rule and explicit self-correction tracking; and (iv) a tiered, grounded evidence fix suggestion scheme (LV1 causal, LV2 quality) posted as inline merge-request comments. Validated on real skills in a production agentic stack across multiple agent SDKs, AEVAL converts spurious 100% pass rates into reproducible first-attempt fail signals with an auditable record of every executor fix.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2026

InCarEmo: A Multimodal Dataset for In-Cabin Emotion Recognition and Driver State Monitoring

Understanding driver emotion and state is critical for the next generation of intelligent in-cabin systems that ensure safety and enhance human-vehicle interaction. However, existing public datasets for in-cabin affective computing are largely limited to visual modalities and rarely include conversational information, making it difficult to capture the linguistic and interactive cues underlying driver emotion. To address these gaps, we introduce InCarEmo, a multimodal dataset for in-cabin emotion recognition and driver state monitoring. InCarEmo integrates RGB and infrared video, in-cabin audio, and dialogue text collected from scripted in-cabin scenarios designed to simulate realistic driver behaviors, covering diverse lighting conditions and driving contexts. The dataset supports three primary tasks: 1) multimodal emotion recognition, 2) fatigue detection, and 3) distraction monitoring. In addition to the original Chinese data, we construct an auxiliary English benchmark to support preliminary cross-lingual evaluation. We provide a unified benchmark with extensive baseline results across unimodal and multimodal methods, including analyses under modality-missing and noise conditions. Experimental results demonstrate the benefits of multimodal fusion and reveal remaining challenges under real-world noise and low-light conditions. By releasing InCarEmo, we aim to establish a comprehensive foundation for robust, interpretable, and human-centric in-cabin affective understanding, promoting safer and more empathetic driver-vehicle interaction.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

MAVEN: A Multi-stage Agentic Annotation Pipeline for Video Reasoning Tasks

Training Vision Language Models (VLMs) for video event reasoning requires high-quality structured annotations capturing not only what happened, but when, where, why, and with what consequence, at a scale manual labelling cannot support. We present MAVEN (Multi-stage Agentic Video Event aNnotation), a multi-stage agentic pipeline that turns raw videos into multi-task training data with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning traces, organized around a designated Event of Focus. At its core, MAVEN synthesizes a Multi-Scale Spatio-Temporal Event Description (MSTED) from three complementary caption levels; this explicit intermediate serves as the sole input to downstream Q&A generation across multiple task formats. Crucially, MAVEN supports agent-driven domain adaptation: given a new video dataset and target question examples, the agent redesigns all prompts top-down without manual re-engineering. A hierarchical refinement loop further classifies annotation errors against a taxonomy, traces root causes to the originating pipeline stage, and applies targeted edits that rewrite prompts or modify the pipeline structure itself, iteratively improving data quality. We apply MAVEN to label over 5,300 traffic videos and fine-tune Cosmos-Reason2-8B on the resulting data. On a private CCTV evaluation set, fine-tuning surpasses both Gemini 2.5 Pro and 3.1 Flash, including a $+38.8$-point gain in MCQ accuracy over zero-shot. On AccidentBench, CCTV-only training lifts Cosmos-Reason2 by $+10.7$ MCQ points and matches Gemini 2.5 Pro despite seeing no dashcam videos; adding agent-adapted dashcam annotations narrows the gap to Gemini 3.1 Flash, and RL post-training pushes overall performance past both Gemini baselines. Qualitative results on warehouse surveillance and public safety videos further show the agentic workflow readily adapts the pipeline to new domains.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Probing the Stochastic Machine: Engaging with LLMs in Statistics Curricula Through Veridical Data Science

Large language models (LLMs) are interactive stochastic systems whose most consequential behaviors are still only partially understood. This discussion argues that statistics curricula should treat LLMs not only as tools, but as objects of inquiry: students can probe variability, bias, and prompt sensitivity by designing small experiments and analyzing distributions of outputs. Building on the Veridical Data Science framework and Predictability-Computability-Stability (PCS) principles, this discussion outlines how to organize critical LLM engagement across educational levels and propose four curricular examples, from introductory ``ask it twice'' activities to graduate PCS stability audits of LLM-based analysis workflows.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Target-Aware Linear Regression Under Distribution Shift

Distribution shift between training and deployment is a pervasive challenge for modern AI systems. In many cases, the target marginals of covariates and response are known or specified through population-level observations, boundary conditions, properties of simulator configurations, or alignment-time distributional constraints. Such knowledge may provide valuable side information for regression estimation. We study this problem in the multivariate linear regression setting with a stable conditional mean $E[Y\mid X]$ across source and target, and identify the hybrid-loss estimator, which jointly incorporates both target marginals, as a benchmark target-aware estimator. Its direct computation, however, requires solving a coupled nonlinear optimization that is expensive at scale. Our main contribution is to develop and evaluate two computationally tractable alternatives: a constrained moment-matching estimator and a two-stage estimator that augments ordinary least squares with a calibration step. For all three estimators, we derive and compare closed-form asymptotic mean squared errors, yielding conditions under which the tractable alternatives match or closely approximate the hybrid benchmark, and regimes in which they do not. Monte Carlo experiments across three controlled shift regimes validate the theoretical results, investigate the accuracy-runtime tradeoffs among the three estimators, and translate into guidance on estimator choice. In particular, the two-stage estimator nearly matches the hybrid benchmark in the high signal-to-noise regime at essentially no additional cost, providing theoretical grounding for empirical observations in nonlinear settings.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Grading the Grader: Lessons from Evaluating an Agentic Data Analysis System

Agentic data analysis systems produce rich outputs, including code, numerical results, and verbal diagnostics. This makes them more challenging to evaluate than single-turn LLM responses. It is therefore necessary to distinguish genuine disagreement between an agent's output and a ground-truth answer from grading artifacts. We investigate how reliably automated graders assess such a system and what strategies improve grading quality by applying LAMBDA, a multi-agent data-analysis system, on 153 numerical QRData tasks from DSGym. We develop and evaluate a three-layer human-AI grading cascade: strict regex matching, LLM-based lenient grading, and snippet-based human inspection, which combines non-GenAI and GenAI strategies with different failure profiles. Both automated graders achieve 100% observed precision (0/70 false positives). The lenient grader's recall is 97% against human labels. A keyword-anchored extraction pipeline raises the strict grader's recall by 60 percentage points over a last-number heuristic; the lenient grader is architecturally parser-independent. An iterative nudge mechanism raises grading run success from 36% to 97% and lenient-pass rates from 16% to 46%; comparing nudging with and without original-question re-injection shows that re-injection offers no benefit, confirming the nudge as an answer template cue. We further observe in this case study that variable type is the task metadata field most consistently associated with grading pipeline dynamics and observed outcome grades.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

BLASST: Dynamic BLocked Attention Sparsity via Softmax Thresholding

The growing demand for long-context inference capabilities in Large Language Models (LLMs) has intensified the computational and memory bottlenecks inherent to the self-attention mechanism. To address this challenge, we introduce BLASST, a drop-in, dynamic sparse attention mechanism that accelerates inference by using only a fixed scalar threshold to skip attention blocks. Our method targets practical inference deployment by removing the barriers to adoption present in existing works. As such, BLASST eliminates training requirements, avoids expensive pre-computation passes, accelerates both prefill and decode across all major attention variants (MHA, GQA, MQA, and MLA), provides optimized support for modern hardware, and easily integrates into existing frameworks. This is achieved by reusing online softmax statistics to identify negligible attention scores, skipping softmax, value block loads, and the subsequent matrix multiplication. We demonstrate the BLASST algorithm by delivering optimized kernels with negligible latency overhead. Our automated threshold calibration procedure reveals a simple inverse relationship between optimal threshold and context length, meaning we require only a single threshold each for prefill and decode per model. Preserving benchmark accuracy, we demonstrate a 1.52x speedup for prefill at 71.9% sparsity and a 1.48x speedup for decode at 73.2% sparsity on modern GPUs.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Bayesian Modeling for Aggregated Relational Data: A Unified Perspective

Aggregated relational data is widely collected to study social networks, in fields such as sociology, public health and economics. Many of the successes of ARD inference have been driven by increasingly complex Bayesian models, which provide principled and flexible ways of reflecting dependence patterns and biases encountered in real data. In this work we provide researchers with a unified collection of Bayesian implementations of existing models for ARD, within the state-of-the-art Bayesian sampling language Stan. Our implementations incorporate within-iteration rescaling procedures by default, improving algorithm run time and convergence diagnostics. Estimating ARD parameters requires carefully balancing model complexity against computational cost and data requirements, yet this trade-off has received relatively limited systematic attention in the literature. Moreover, general model comparison tools applicable across a wide range of ARD models remain underdeveloped, and existing approaches often require substantial expertise in Bayesian computation and software. Using synthetic data, we demonstrate how well competing models recover true personal network sizes and subpopulation sizes and how existing posterior predictive checks compare across a range of Bayesian ARD models. We provide code to leverage Stan's modeling framework for exact $K$-fold cross-validation, and explain why approximate leave-one-out estimates often fail for many ARD models. This work highlights important connections and future directions in Bayesian modeling of ARD, providing practical guidance for selecting and evaluating Bayesian ARD models.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

SoulX-Singer: Towards High-Quality Zero-Shot Singing Voice Synthesis

While recent years have witnessed rapid progress in speech synthesis, open-source singing voice synthesis (SVS) systems still face significant barriers to industrial deployment, particularly in terms of robustness and zero-shot generalization. In this report, we introduce SoulX-Singer, a high-quality open-source SVS system designed with practical deployment considerations in mind. SoulX-Singer supports controllable singing generation conditioned on either symbolic musical scores (MIDI) or melodic representations, enabling flexible and expressive control in real-world production workflows. Trained on more than 42,000 hours of vocal data, the system supports Mandarin Chinese, English, and Cantonese and consistently achieves state-of-the-art synthesis quality across languages under diverse musical conditions. Furthermore, to enable reliable evaluation of zero-shot SVS performance in practical scenarios, we construct SoulX-Singer-Eval, a dedicated benchmark with strict training-test disentanglement, facilitating systematic assessment in zero-shot settings.

eess.AS↗

arXiv2026

AutoClimDS: Climate Data Science Agentic AI -- A Knowledge Graph is All You Need

Climate data science remains constrained by fragmented data sources, heterogeneous formats, and steep technical expertise requirements. These barriers slow discovery, limit participation, and undermine reproducibility. We present AutoClimDS, a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) Agentic AI system that addresses these challenges by integrating a curated climate knowledge graph (KG) with a set of Agentic AI workflows designed for cloud-native scientific analysis. The KG unifies datasets, metadata, tools, and workflows into a machine-interpretable structure, while AI agents, powered by generative models, enable natural-language query interpretation, automated data discovery, programmatic data acquisition, and end-to-end climate analysis. A key result is that AutoClimDS can reproduce published scientific figures and analyses from natural-language instructions alone, completing the entire workflow from dataset selection to preprocessing to modeling. When given the same tasks, state-of-the-art general-purpose LLMs (e.g., ChatGPT GPT-5.1) cannot independently identify authoritative datasets or construct valid retrieval workflows using standard web access. This highlights the necessity of structured scientific memory for agentic scientific reasoning. By encoding procedural workflow knowledge into a KG and integrating it with existing technologies (cloud APIs, LLMs, sandboxed execution), AutoClimDS demonstrates that the KG serves as the essential enabling component, the irreplaceable structural foundation, for autonomous climate data science. This approach provides a pathway toward democratizing climate research through human-AI collaboration.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics-ML Climate Simulation via a $50,000 Kaggle Competition

Subgrid machine-learning (ML) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and machine learning researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader machine learning and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Datasets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution, real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global RMSE, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Text-Driven Emotionally Continuous Talking Face Generation

Talking Face Generation (TFG) strives to create realistic and emotionally expressive digital faces. While previous TFG works have mastered the creation of naturalistic facial movements, they typically express a fixed target emotion in synthetic videos and lack the ability to exhibit continuously changing and natural expressions like humans do when conveying information. To synthesize realistic videos, we propose a novel task called Emotionally Continuous Talking Face Generation (EC-TFG), which takes a text segment and an emotion description with varying emotions as driving data, aiming to generate a video where the person speaks the text while reflecting the emotional changes within the description. Alongside this, we introduce a customized model, i.e., Temporal-Intensive Emotion Modulated Talking Face Generation (TIE-TFG), which innovatively manages dynamic emotional variations by employing Temporal-Intensive Emotion Fluctuation Modeling, allowing it to provide emotion variation sequences corresponding to the input text to drive continuous facial expression changes in synthesized videos. Extensive evaluations demonstrate our method's exceptional ability to produce smooth emotion transitions and uphold high-quality visuals and motion authenticity across diverse emotional states.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

"Rebuilding" Statistics in the Age of AI: A Town Hall Discussion on Culture, Infrastructure, and Training

This article presents the full, original record of the 2024 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) town hall, "Statistics in the Age of AI," which convened leading statisticians to discuss how the field is evolving in response to advances in artificial intelligence, foundation models, large-scale empirical modeling, and data-intensive infrastructures. The town hall was structured around open panel discussion and extensive audience Q&A, with the aim of eliciting candid, experience-driven perspectives rather than formal presentations or prepared statements. This document preserves the extended exchanges among panelists and audience members, with minimal editorial intervention, and organizes the conversation around five recurring questions concerning disciplinary culture and practices, data curation and "data work," engagement with modern empirical modeling, training for large-scale AI applications, and partnerships with key AI stakeholders. By providing an archival record of this discussion, the preprint aims to support transparency, community reflection, and ongoing dialogue about the evolving role of statistics in the data- and AI-centric future.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Calibrating Geophysical Predictions under Constrained Probabilistic Distributions

Machine learning (ML) has shown significant promise in studying complex geophysical dynamical systems, including turbulence and climate processes. Such systems often display sensitive dependence on initial conditions, reflected in positive Lyapunov exponents, where even small perturbations in short-term forecasts can lead to large deviations in long-term outcomes. Thus, meaningful inference requires not only accurate short-term predictions, but also consistency with the system's long-term attractor that is captured by the marginal distribution of state variables. Existing approaches attempt to address this challenge by incorporating spatial and temporal dependence, but these strategies become impractical when data are extremely sparse. In this work, we show that prior knowledge of marginal distributions offers valuable complementary information to short-term observations, motivating a distribution-informed learning framework. We introduce a calibration algorithm based on normalization and the Kernelized Stein Discrepancy (KSD) to enhance ML predictions. The method here employs KSD within a reproducing kernel Hilbert space to calibrate model outputs, improving their fidelity to known physical distributions. This not only sharpens pointwise predictions but also enforces consistency with non-local statistical structures rooted in physical principles. Through synthetic experiments-spanning offline climatological CO2 fluxes and online quasi-geostrophic flow simulations-we demonstrate the robustness and broad utility of the proposed framework.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Power Ensemble Aggregation for Improved Extreme Event AI Prediction

This paper addresses the critical challenge of improving predictions of climate extreme events, specifically heat waves, using machine learning methods. Our work is framed as a classification problem in which we try to predict whether surface air temperature will exceed its q-th local quantile within a specified timeframe. Our key finding is that aggregating ensemble predictions using a power mean significantly enhances the classifier's performance. By making a machine-learning based weather forecasting model generative and applying this non-linear aggregation method, we achieve better accuracy in predicting extreme heat events than with the typical mean prediction from the same model. Our power aggregation method shows promise and adaptability, as its optimal performance varies with the quantile threshold chosen, demonstrating increased effectiveness for higher extremes prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Machine Learning Workflows in Climate Modeling: Design Patterns and Insights from Case Studies

Machine learning has been increasingly applied in climate modeling on system emulation acceleration, data-driven parameter inference, forecasting, and knowledge discovery, addressing challenges such as physical consistency, multi-scale coupling, data sparsity, robust generalization, and integration with scientific workflows. This paper analyzes a series of case studies from applied machine learning research in climate modeling, with a focus on design choices and workflow structure. Rather than reviewing technical details, we aim to synthesize workflow design patterns across diverse projects in ML-enabled climate modeling: from surrogate modeling, ML parameterization, probabilistic programming, to simulation-based inference, and physics-informed transfer learning. We unpack how these workflows are grounded in physical knowledge, informed by simulation data, and designed to integrate observations. We aim to offer a framework for ensuring rigor in scientific machine learning through more transparent model development, critical evaluation, informed adaptation, and reproducibility, and to contribute to lowering the barrier for interdisciplinary collaboration at the interface of data science and climate modeling.

cs.LG↗