arXiv subjects

Tianning Xu

Publications and source records attributed to Tianning Xu.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Predicting Mortgage Default with Machine Learning: AutoML, Class Imbalance, and Leakage Control

Mortgage default prediction is a core task in financial risk management, and machine learning models are increasingly used to estimate default probabilities and provide interpretable signals for downstream decisions. In real-world mortgage datasets, however, three factors frequently undermine evaluation validity and deployment reliability: ambiguity in default labeling, severe class imbalance, and information leakage arising from temporal structure and post-event variables. We compare multiple machine learning approaches for mortgage default prediction using a real-world loan-level dataset, with emphasis on leakage control and imbalance handling. We employ leakage-aware feature selection, a strict temporal split that constrains both origination and reporting periods, and controlled downsampling of the majority class. Across multiple positive-to-negative ratios, performance remains stable, and an AutoML approach (AutoGluon) achieves the strongest AUROC among the models evaluated. An extended and pedagogical version of this work will appear as a book chapter.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Calibrate and Debias Layer-wise Sampling for Graph Convolutional Networks

Multiple sampling-based methods have been developed for approximating and accelerating node embedding aggregation in graph convolutional networks (GCNs) training. Among them, a layer-wise approach recursively performs importance sampling to select neighbors jointly for existing nodes in each layer. This paper revisits the approach from a matrix approximation perspective, and identifies two issues in the existing layer-wise sampling methods: suboptimal sampling probabilities and estimation biases induced by sampling without replacement. To address these issues, we accordingly propose two remedies: a new principle for constructing sampling probabilities and an efficient debiasing algorithm. The improvements are demonstrated by extensive analyses of estimation variance and experiments on common benchmarks. Code and algorithm implementations are publicly available at https://github.com/ychen-stat-ml/GCN-layer-wise-sampling .

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

On Variance Estimation of Random Forests with Infinite-Order U-statistics

Infinite-order U-statistics (IOUS) has been used extensively on subbagging ensemble learning algorithms such as random forests to quantify its uncertainty. While normality results of IOUS have been studied extensively, its variance estimation approaches and theoretical properties remain mostly unexplored. Existing approaches mainly utilize the leading term dominance property in the Hoeffding decomposition. However, such a view usually leads to biased estimation when the kernel size is large or the sample size is small. On the other hand, while several unbiased estimators exist in the literature, their relationships and theoretical properties, especially the ratio consistency, have never been studied. These limitations lead to unguaranteed performances of constructed confidence intervals. To bridge these gaps in the literature, we propose a new view of the Hoeffding decomposition for variance estimation that leads to an unbiased estimator. Instead of leading term dominance, our view utilizes the dominance of the peak region. Moreover, we establish the connection and equivalence of our estimator with several existing unbiased variance estimators. Theoretically, we are the first to establish the ratio consistency of such a variance estimator, which justifies the coverage rate of confidence intervals constructed from random forests. Numerically, we further propose a local smoothing procedure to improve the estimator's finite sample performance. Extensive simulation studies show that our estimators enjoy lower bias and archive targeted coverage rates.

stat.ML↗