arXiv subjects

Tianyi Peng

Publications and source records attributed to Tianyi Peng.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Prove2Me: An Open Collaborative Platform for Scaling Math Formalization

Proof assistants such as Lean 4 promise the paradigm of formally verified mathematics, but large-scale formalization projects have faced major barriers to entry, including the need for expertise in formal verification (as well as the underlying mathematics) and the significant time required for writing formal proofs. AI coding agents have dramatically reduced these barriers; human users can now use natural language to prompt agents to write complex proofs in Lean. This opens up the intriguing possibility of internet-scale mathematical collaboration involving both humans and AI agents, where correctness is machine-checked. To realize this possibility, we introduce Prove2Me (https://prove2.me), an open collaborative platform for formalizing mathematics. Users launch formalization "missions", to which AI agents contribute formal proofs toward completion. We designed mechanisms and a specialized harness in Prove2Me that enable large-scale collaboration so that agents can build on one another's work and freely reuse existing results. In doing so, Prove2Me aims to turn math formalization into a scalable, crowd-sourced effort open to anyone with an agent.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

ExploraTwin, a Non-Profit Research Platform for Digital Twin Simulations

Digital twin simulations show promise, but current empirical evidence suggests that the approach should be tested before being deployed in any particular context. To lower the friction for researchers and practitioners to test and deploy digital twin simulations, this brief commentary introduces ExploraTwin (https://exploratwin.org), an open-access, non-profit research platform for digital twin survey simulations. ExploraTwin supports two modes. In survey mode, researchers can upload a Qualtrics survey file or create a survey within the platform; select an available sample of digital twins; configure and run the simulation, and export analysis-ready data. In panel mode, researchers can assemble a small group of twins for open-ended conversations, document annotation, and moderated, focus-group-style voice discussions. We also developed CroissantTwin, a standardized data format for adding samples of digital twins to the platform. We demonstrate the survey mode workflow by using the platform to replicate 19 experiments on digital twins from the Twin-2K-500 dataset. ExploraTwin's survey execution fidelity is high: 99.6% of 197,000 answer units returned a structurally valid response on the first run.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

MatrAIx: Simulating the World with 8.3 Billion Persona Agents

Human evaluation of AI systems and digital products is costly, slow, and difficult to scale. Offline evaluations are more scalable but often abstract away human diversity and interactive behavior. We therefore introduce MatrAIx, a population-scale simulated-user evaluation infrastructure for testing AI systems and digital products with heterogeneous users. MatrAIx has three core components: First, Persona 8B contains 8.3 billion persona records represented by 1,290 categorical dimensions. Records are either sampled from a dependency graph that preserves correlated attributes or derived from human-authored profiles. We release a quality-filtered coreset of approximately 1 million personas, comprising 599,847 human-grounded and 400,000 synthetic records. Second, the MatrAIx Playground provides four environments in which diverse users evaluate and interact with digital products: Survey, AI Chatbot, Web, and App. Third, MatrAIx provides 1,010 application tasks spanning more than 25 domains, including Commerce, Software, Finance, and Healthcare. We conducted 18,189 evaluation trials across eight representative tasks. Persona agents were powered by three LLMs: Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5, and Claude Haiku 4.5. The resulting feedback captures how decisions and preferences vary across persona backgrounds, including hesitation after a price increase, willingness to continue after an AI assistant fails, and latency tolerance. We conducted two main validation studies: First, a 400-trial controlled study evaluated persona adherence across ten behavioral attributes and all four environments. The declared behavior was expressed or correctly suppressed in 366 trials (91.5%). Second, human and LLM judges evaluated the extraction quality of human-grounded personas. Overall, MatrAIx provides an end-to-end infrastructure for evaluating AI systems and digital products with diverse simulated human users.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Agentic Data Environments

Autonomous agents promise substantial gains in speed, scale, and labor efficiency, but their failures can impose abrupt and often irreversible costs. The central challenge for agentic automation is therefore to increase the benefits of automation while bounding the consequences of failure. While databases remain central to modern computing, agents operate over a broader data environment spanning files, APIs, applications, and system state. In this talk, I will outline early work on Agentic Data Environments -- the execution substrate in which agents operate -- that both amplify agent capabilities and enforce safety guarantees. This perspective reframes data systems from passive stores of state into active substrates for safe, reliable execution.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

VineLM: Trie-Based Fine-Grained Control for Agentic Workflows

Agentic workflows interleave configurable LLM stages with tool stages and often include retries or refinement loops. Existing workflow managers profile full workflow configurations offline and assign each request a static workflow-level plan that binds each configurable LLM stage to a single model, reuses that model across repeated loop iterations, and does not revisit those choices at runtime. We present VineLM, a workflow manager that enables fine-grained control by choosing the model for each stage invocation as execution unfolds under request-level objectives such as maximizing accuracy under cost or latency budgets. VineLM represents feasible executions as an annotated trie of model-choice prefixes and uses checkpointing and cascade profiling to estimate path accuracy, cost, and latency without exhaustively profiling every request on every path. At runtime, VineLM re-roots the trie after each stage invocation and replans over the remaining subtrie using the realized execution prefix and remaining latency budget. On NL2SQL and math reasoning workflows, VineLM improves the cost-latency-accuracy frontier over coarse workflow-level baselines, achieving up to 18% higher accuracy at the same per-request budget with its sparse profiling reducing offline profiling cost by 98-99.8% when compared to exhaustive profiling.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2026

SYN-DIGITS: A Synthetic Control Framework for Calibrated Digital Twin Simulation

AI-based persona simulation -- often referred to as digital twin simulation -- is increasingly used for market research, recommender systems, and social sciences. Despite their flexibility, large language models (LLMs) often exhibit systematic bias and miscalibration relative to real human behavior, limiting their reliability. Inspired by synthetic control methods from causal inference, we propose SYN-DIGITS (SYNthetic Control Framework for Calibrated DIGItal Twin Simulation), a principled and lightweight calibration framework that learns latent structure from digital-twin responses and transfers it to align predictions with human ground truth. SYN-DIGITS operates as a post-processing layer on top of any LLM-based simulator and thus is model-agnostic. We develop a latent factor model that formalizes when and why calibration succeeds through latent space alignment conditions, and we systematically evaluate ten calibration methods across thirteen persona constructions, three LLMs, and two datasets. SYN-DIGITS supports both individual-level and distributional simulation for previously unseen questions and unobserved populations, with provable error guarantees. Experiments show that SYN-DIGITS achieves up to 50% relative improvements in individual-level correlation and 50--90% relative reductions in distributional discrepancy compared to uncalibrated baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

AgentOpt v0.1 Technical Report: Client-Side Optimization for LLM-Based Agent

AI agents are increasingly deployed in real-world applications, including systems such as Manus, OpenClaw, and coding agents. Existing research has primarily focused on server-side efficiency, proposing methods such as caching, speculative execution, traffic scheduling, and load balancing to reduce the cost of serving agentic workloads. However, as users increasingly construct agents by composing local tools, remote APIs, and diverse models, an equally important optimization problem arises on the client side. Client-side optimization asks how developers should allocate the resources available to them, including model choice, local tools, and API budget across pipeline stages, subject to application-specific quality, cost, and latency constraints. Because these objectives depend on the task and deployment setting, they cannot be determined by server-side systems alone. We introduce AgentOpt, the first framework-agnostic Python package for client-side agent optimization. We first study model selection, a high-impact optimization lever in multi-step agent pipelines. Given a pipeline and a small evaluation set, the goal is to find the most cost-effective assignment of models to pipeline roles. This problem is consequential in practice: at matched accuracy, the cost gap between the best and worst model combinations can reach 13-32x in our experiments. To efficiently explore the exponentially growing combination space, AgentOpt implements ten search algorithms, including UCB-E, UCB-E with Low-Rank Factorization, Arm Elimination, Epsilon-LUCB, Threshold Successive Elimination, and Bayesian Optimization. Across four benchmarks, UCB-E recovers near-optimal accuracy while reducing evaluation budget by 62-76\% relative to brute-force search. Code and benchmark results available at https://agentoptimizer.github.io/agentopt/.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Quantifying Trust: Financial Risk Management for Trustworthy AI Agents

Prior work on trustworthy AI emphasizes model-internal properties such as bias mitigation, adversarial robustness, and interpretability. As AI systems evolve into autonomous agents deployed in open environments and increasingly connected to payments or assets, the operational meaning of trust shifts to end-to-end outcomes: whether an agent completes tasks, follows user intent, and avoids failures that cause material or psychological harm. These risks are fundamentally product-level and cannot be eliminated by technical safeguards alone because agent behavior is inherently stochastic. To address this gap between model-level reliability and user-facing assurance, we propose a complementary framework based on risk management. Drawing inspiration from financial underwriting, we introduce the \textbf{Agentic Risk Standard (ARS)}, a payment settlement standard for AI-mediated transactions. ARS integrates risk assessment, underwriting, and compensation into a single transaction framework that protects users when interacting with agents. Under ARS, users receive predefined and contractually enforceable compensation in cases of execution failure, misalignment, or unintended outcomes. This shifts trust from an implicit expectation about model behavior to an explicit, measurable, and enforceable product guarantee. We also present a simulation study analyzing the social benefits of applying ARS to agentic transactions. ARS's implementation can be found at https://github.com/t54-labs/AgenticRiskStandard.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

AI Agents for Inventory Control: Human-LLM-OR Complementarity

Inventory control is a fundamental operations problem in which ordering decisions are traditionally guided by theoretically grounded operations research (OR) algorithms. However, such algorithms often rely on rigid modeling assumptions and can perform poorly when demand distributions shift or relevant contextual information is unavailable. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have generated interest in AI agents that can reason flexibly and incorporate rich contextual signals, but it remains unclear how best to incorporate LLM-based methods into traditional decision-making pipelines. We study how OR algorithms, LLMs, and humans can interact and complement each other in a multi-period inventory control setting. We construct InventoryBench, a benchmark of over 1,000 inventory instances spanning both synthetic and real-world demand data, designed to stress-test decision rules under demand shifts, seasonality, and uncertain lead times. Through this benchmark, we find that OR-augmented LLM methods outperform either method in isolation, suggesting that these methods are complementary rather than substitutes. We further investigate the role of humans through a controlled classroom experiment that embeds LLM recommendations into a human-in-the-loop decision pipeline. Contrary to prior findings that human-AI collaboration can degrade performance, we show that, on average, human-AI teams achieve higher profits than either humans or AI agents operating alone. Beyond this population-level finding, we formalize an individual-level complementarity effect and derive a distribution-free lower bound on the fraction of individuals who benefit from AI collaboration; empirically, we find this fraction to be substantial.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

E-GEO: A Testbed for Generative Engine Optimization in E-Commerce

With the rise of large language models (LLMs), generative engines have become powerful alternatives to traditional search, reshaping retrieval tasks. In e-commerce, for instance, conversational shopping agents now guide consumers to relevant products. This shift has created the need for generative engine optimization (GEO) -- improving content visibility and relevance for generative engines. Despite its growing importance, current GEO practices are largely ad hoc, and their impacts remain poorly understood, especially in the e-commerce setting. We address this gap by introducing E-GEO, the first dataset built specifically for e-commerce GEO. E-GEO contains 13,747 realistic, multi-sentence consumer product queries, each paired with 10 retrieved Amazon listings, capturing rich intent, constraints, preferences, and shopping contexts that existing datasets miss. Using this dataset, we conduct the first large-scale empirical study of e-commerce GEO across five representative generative engines, seven popular LLM rewriters, and fifteen hand-crafted rewriting heuristics. We further formulate GEO as an optimization problem and develop a lightweight prompt meta-optimization algorithm that significantly improves over heuristic baselines. Notably, the optimized prompts reveal a stable, domain-agnostic pattern, suggesting the existence of a "universally effective" GEO strategy. Finally, we red-team the GEO system through both heuristic and optimization-based attacks and show that, under a simple in-prompt defense, gains from GEO reflect genuine content improvement rather than manipulation, anchoring GEO as a substantive and well-defined optimization problem.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2025

Tail-Optimized Caching for LLM Inference

Prompt caching is critical for reducing latency and cost in LLM inference: OpenAI and Anthropic report up to 50-90% cost savings through prompt reuse. Despite its widespread success, little is known about what constitutes an optimal prompt caching policy, particularly when optimizing tail latency, a metric of central importance to practitioners. The widely used Least Recently Used (LRU) policy can perform arbitrarily poor on this metric, as it is oblivious to the heterogeneity of conversation lengths. To address this gap, we propose Tail-Optimized LRU, a simple two-line modification that reallocates KV cache capacity to prioritize high-latency conversations by evicting cache entries that are unlikely to affect future turns. Though the implementation is simple, we prove its optimality under a natural stochastic model of conversation dynamics, providing the first theoretical justification for LRU in this setting, a result that may be of independent interest to the caching community. Experimentally, on real conversation data WildChat, Tail-Optimized LRU achieves up to 27.5% reduction in P90 tail Time to First Token latency and 23.9% in P95 tail latency compared to LRU, along with up to 38.9% decrease in SLO violations of 200ms. We believe this provides a practical and theoretically grounded option for practitioners seeking to optimize tail latency in real-world LLM deployments.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Speculative Actions: A Lossless Framework for Faster Agentic Systems

AI agents are increasingly deployed in complex, interactive environments, yet their runtime remains a major bottleneck for training, evaluation, and real-world use. Typical agent behavior unfolds sequentially, with each action requiring an API call that can incur substantial latency. For example, a game of chess between two state-of-the-art agents can take hours. We introduce Speculative Actions, a lossless acceleration framework for general agentic systems. Inspired by speculative execution in microprocessors and speculative decoding in LLM inference, our method uses faster models to predict likely future actions and execute them in parallel, committing only when predictions match. We evaluate speculative actions across gaming, e-commerce, and web search environments, and additionally study a lossy extension in an operating systems setting. Across domains, we achieve up to 55% next-action prediction accuracy, translating into up to 20% latency reductions. Finally, we present a cost-latency analysis that formalizes the tradeoff between speculative breadth and time savings. This analysis enables principled tuning and selective branch launching to ensure that multi-branch speculation delivers practical speedups without prohibitive cost growth.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Digital Twins as Funhouse Mirrors: Five Key Distortions

Scientists and practitioners are increasingly moving to deploy digital twins--LLM-based models of real individuals--across social science and policy research. We conduct 19 pre-registered studies spanning 164 diverse outcomes (e.g., attitudes toward hiring algorithms, intentions to share misinformation), comparing human responses to those of their corresponding digital twins, which are trained on each individual's prior responses to over 500 questions. We establish an empirical benchmark for digital twin performance: their predictions are only modestly more accurate than those of a homogeneous base LLM and exhibit weak correlation with human responses (average $r = 0.20$). To inform future development, we identify five systematic distortions in digital twin behavior: (i) insufficient individuation, (ii) stereotyping, (iii) representation bias, (iv) ideological bias, and (v) hyper-rationality. Finally, we release our full dataset and code as a standardized testbed for evaluating and improving digital twin methodologies. Together, our findings caution against premature deployment while laying the groundwork for a transparent, replicable, and iterative science of responsible digital twin development.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

AI Agents for Web Testing: A Case Study in the Wild

Automated web testing plays a critical role in ensuring high-quality user experiences and delivering business value. Traditional approaches primarily focus on code coverage and load testing, but often fall short of capturing complex user behaviors, leaving many usability issues undetected. The emergence of large language models (LLM) and AI agents opens new possibilities for web testing by enabling human-like interaction with websites and a general awareness of common usability problems. In this work, we present WebProber, a prototype AI agent-based web testing framework. Given a URL, WebProber autonomously explores the website, simulating real user interactions, identifying bugs and usability issues, and producing a human-readable report. We evaluate WebProber through a case study of 120 academic personal websites, where it uncovered 29 usability issues--many of which were missed by traditional tools. Our findings highlight agent-based testing as a promising direction while outlining directions for developing next-generation, user-centered testing frameworks.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2025

Performance of LLMs on Stochastic Modeling Operations Research Problems: From Theory to Practice

Large language models (LLMs) have exhibited expert-level capabilities across various domains. However, their abilities to solve problems in Operations Research (OR) -- the analysis and optimization of mathematical models derived from real-world problems or their verbal descriptions -- remain underexplored. In this work, we take a first step toward evaluating LLMs' abilities to solve stochastic modeling problems, a core class of OR problems characterized by uncertainty and typically involving tools from probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. We manually procure a representative set of graduate-level homework and doctoral qualification-exam problems and test LLMs' abilities to solve them. We further leverage SimOpt, an open-source library of simulation-optimization problems and solvers, to investigate LLMs' abilities to make real-world decisions under uncertainty. Our results show that, though a nontrivial amount of work is still needed to reliably automate the stochastic modeling pipeline in reality, state-of-the-art LLMs demonstrate proficiency on par with human experts in both classroom and practical settings. These findings highlight the potential of building AI agents that assist OR researchers and amplify the real-world impact of OR through automation.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Estimation of Treatment Effects Under Nonstationarity via the Truncated Policy Gradient Estimator

Randomized experiments (or A/B tests) are widely used to evaluate interventions in dynamic systems such as recommendation platforms, marketplaces, and digital health. In these settings, interventions affect both current and future system states, so estimating the global average treatment effect (GATE) requires accounting for temporal dynamics, which is especially challenging in the presence of nonstationarity; existing approaches suffer from high bias, high variance, or both. In this paper, we address this challenge via the novel Truncated Policy Gradient (TPG) estimator, which replaces instantaneous outcomes with short-horizon outcome trajectories. The estimator admits a policy gradient interpretation: it is a truncation of the first-order approximation to the GATE, yielding provable reductions in bias and variance in nonstationary Markovian settings. We further establish a central limit theorem for the TPG estimator and develop a consistent variance estimator that remains valid under nonstationarity with single-trajectory data. We validate our theory with two real-world case studies. The results show that relative to existing approaches, a well-calibrated TPG estimator can achieve a favorable balance between bias and variance in nonstationary settings, highlighting the value of the policy-gradient perspective for designing effective estimators under complex dynamics.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Multi-agent Markov Entanglement

Value decomposition has long been a fundamental technique in multi-agent dynamic programming and reinforcement learning (RL). Specifically, the value function of a global state $(s_1,s_2,\ldots,s_N)$ is often approximated as the sum of local functions: $V(s_1,s_2,\ldots,s_N)\approx\sum_{i=1}^N V_i(s_i)$. This approach traces back to the index policy in restless multi-armed bandit problems and has found various applications in modern RL systems. However, the theoretical justification for why this decomposition works so effectively remains underexplored. In this paper, we uncover the underlying mathematical structure that enables value decomposition. We demonstrate that a multi-agent Markov decision process (MDP) permits value decomposition if and only if its transition matrix is not "entangled" -- a concept analogous to quantum entanglement in quantum physics. Drawing inspiration from how physicists measure quantum entanglement, we introduce how to measure the "Markov entanglement" for multi-agent MDPs and show that this measure can be used to bound the decomposition error in general multi-agent MDPs. Using the concept of Markov entanglement, we proved that a widely-used class of index policies is weakly entangled and enjoys a sublinear $\mathcal O(\sqrt{N})$ scale of decomposition error for $N$-agent systems. Finally, we show how Markov entanglement can be efficiently estimated in practice, providing practitioners with an empirical proxy for the quality of value decomposition.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Twin-2K-500: A dataset for building digital twins of over 2,000 people based on their answers to over 500 questions

LLM-based digital twin simulation, where large language models are used to emulate individual human behavior, holds great promise for research in AI, social science, and digital experimentation. However, progress in this area has been hindered by the scarcity of real, individual-level datasets that are both large and publicly available. This lack of high-quality ground truth limits both the development and validation of digital twin methodologies. To address this gap, we introduce a large-scale, public dataset designed to capture a rich and holistic view of individual human behavior. We survey a representative sample of $N = 2,058$ participants (average 2.42 hours per person) in the US across four waves with 500 questions in total, covering a comprehensive battery of demographic, psychological, economic, personality, and cognitive measures, as well as replications of behavioral economics experiments and a pricing survey. The final wave repeats tasks from earlier waves to establish a test-retest accuracy baseline. Initial analyses suggest the data are of high quality and show promise for constructing digital twins that predict human behavior well at the individual and aggregate levels. By making the full dataset publicly available, we aim to establish a valuable testbed for the development and benchmarking of LLM-based persona simulations. Beyond LLM applications, due to its unique breadth and scale the dataset also enables broad social science research, including studies of cross-construct correlations and heterogeneous treatment effects.

cs.CY↗