arXiv subjects

Tiberio Caetano

Publications and source records attributed to Tiberio Caetano.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Risks and Controls for Multi-Agent Systems: an analytical framework for deployment of AI agents across organisational boundaries

This report presents a framework to help organisations, policymakers and researchers reason about the risks that emerge when AI agents interact with each other, how those risks change as interactions cross organisational boundaries, and the controls that may help address them. As organisations deploy AI agents, those agents will increasingly interact with each other: inside the organisation, with the agents of partners, customers and suppliers, and with unknown counterparties on the open internet. Failures can emerge from the interactions themselves, and once those interactions cross an organisation's perimeter, no single organisation can fully see, control or govern them. The report introduces three deployment tiers, defined by the minimum common governance binding any two interacting agents: singular governance, where one organisation governs every agent; federated governance, where multiple organisations deploy into a shared environment under agreed rules; and open environments, where agents operate with no central authority and shared standards are adopted voluntarily if at all. Within each tier, the report examines risk factors, failure modes and available controls. It identifies who is positioned to apply the controls, and where no actor is positioned to act, it characterises the gap and the collective action required to close it.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

Risk Analysis Techniques for Governed LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems

Organisations are starting to adopt LLM-based AI agents, with their deployments naturally evolving from single agents towards interconnected, multi-agent networks. Yet a collection of safe agents does not guarantee a safe collection of agents, as interactions between agents over time create emergent behaviours and induce novel failure modes. This means multi-agent systems require a fundamentally different risk analysis approach than that used for a single agent. This report addresses the early stages of risk identification and analysis for multi-agent AI systems operating within governed environments where organisations control their agent configurations and deployment. In this setting, we examine six critical failure modes: cascading reliability failures, inter-agent communication failures, monoculture collapse, conformity bias, deficient theory of mind, and mixed motive dynamics. For each, we provide a toolkit for practitioners to extend or integrate into their existing frameworks to assess these failure modes within their organisational contexts. Given fundamental limitations in current LLM behavioural understanding, our approach centres on analysis validity, and advocates for progressively increasing validity through staged testing across stages of abstraction and deployment that gradually increases exposure to potential negative impacts, while collecting convergent evidence through simulation, observational analysis, benchmarking, and red teaming. This methodology establishes the groundwork for robust organisational risk management as these LLM-based multi-agent systems are deployed and operated.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2020

Fast Fair Regression via Efficient Approximations of Mutual Information

Most work in algorithmic fairness to date has focused on discrete outcomes, such as deciding whether to grant someone a loan or not. In these classification settings, group fairness criteria such as independence, separation and sufficiency can be measured directly by comparing rates of outcomes between subpopulations. Many important problems however require the prediction of a real-valued outcome, such as a risk score or insurance premium. In such regression settings, measuring group fairness criteria is computationally challenging, as it requires estimating information-theoretic divergences between conditional probability density functions. This paper introduces fast approximations of the independence, separation and sufficiency group fairness criteria for regression models from their (conditional) mutual information definitions, and uses such approximations as regularisers to enforce fairness within a regularised risk minimisation framework. Experiments in real-world datasets indicate that in spite of its superior computational efficiency our algorithm still displays state-of-the-art accuracy/fairness tradeoffs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

The Crossover Process: Learnability and Data Protection from Inference Attacks

It is usual to consider data protection and learnability as conflicting objectives. This is not always the case: we show how to jointly control inference --- seen as the attack --- and learnability by a noise-free process that mixes training examples, the Crossover Process (cp). One key point is that the cp~is typically able to alter joint distributions without touching on marginals, nor altering the sufficient statistic for the class. In other words, it saves (and sometimes improves) generalization for supervised learning, but can alter the relationship between covariates --- and therefore fool measures of nonlinear independence and causal inference into misleading ad-hoc conclusions. For example, a cp~can increase / decrease odds ratios, bring fairness or break fairness, tamper with disparate impact, strengthen, weaken or reverse causal directions, change observed statistical measures of dependence. For each of these, we quantify changes brought by a cp, as well as its statistical impact on generalization abilities via a new complexity measure that we call the Rademacher cp~complexity. Experiments on a dozen readily available domains validate the theory.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

Fast Learning from Distributed Datasets without Entity Matching

Consider the following data fusion scenario: two datasets/peers contain the same real-world entities described using partially shared features, e.g. banking and insurance company records of the same customer base. Our goal is to learn a classifier in the cross product space of the two domains, in the hard case in which no shared ID is available -- e.g. due to anonymization. Traditionally, the problem is approached by first addressing entity matching and subsequently learning the classifier in a standard manner. We present an end-to-end solution which bypasses matching entities, based on the recently introduced concept of Rademacher observations (rados). Informally, we replace the minimisation of a loss over examples, which requires to solve entity resolution, by the equivalent minimisation of a (different) loss over rados. Among others, key properties we show are (i) a potentially huge subset of these rados does not require to perform entity matching, and (ii) the algorithm that provably minimizes the rado loss over these rados has time and space complexities smaller than the algorithm minimizing the equivalent example loss. Last, we relax a key assumption of the model, that the data is vertically partitioned among peers --- in this case, we would not even know the existence of a solution to entity resolution. In this more general setting, experiments validate the possibility of significantly beating even the optimal peer in hindsight.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2015

Evolution of Privacy Loss in Wikipedia

The cumulative effect of collective online participation has an important and adverse impact on individual privacy. As an online system evolves over time, new digital traces of individual behavior may uncover previously hidden statistical links between an individual's past actions and her private traits. To quantify this effect, we analyze the evolution of individual privacy loss by studying the edit history of Wikipedia over 13 years, including more than 117,523 different users performing 188,805,088 edits. We trace each Wikipedia's contributor using apparently harmless features, such as the number of edits performed on predefined broad categories in a given time period (e.g. Mathematics, Culture or Nature). We show that even at this unspecific level of behavior description, it is possible to use off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms to uncover usually undisclosed personal traits, such as gender, religion or education. We provide empirical evidence that the prediction accuracy for almost all private traits consistently improves over time. Surprisingly, the prediction performance for users who stopped editing after a given time still improves. The activities performed by new users seem to have contributed more to this effect than additional activities from existing (but still active) users. Insights from this work should help users, system designers, and policy makers understand and make long-term design choices in online content creation systems.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

A Hybrid Loss for Multiclass and Structured Prediction

We propose a novel hybrid loss for multiclass and structured prediction problems that is a convex combination of a log loss for Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) and a multiclass hinge loss for Support Vector Machines (SVMs). We provide a sufficient condition for when the hybrid loss is Fisher consistent for classification. This condition depends on a measure of dominance between labels--specifically, the gap between the probabilities of the best label and the second best label. We also prove Fisher consistency is necessary for parametric consistency when learning models such as CRFs. We demonstrate empirically that the hybrid loss typically performs least as well as--and often better than--both of its constituent losses on a variety of tasks, such as human action recognition. In doing so we also provide an empirical comparison of the efficacy of probabilistic and margin based approaches to multiclass and structured prediction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2012

A Graphical Model Formulation of Collaborative Filtering Neighbourhood Methods with Fast Maximum Entropy Training

Item neighbourhood methods for collaborative filtering learn a weighted graph over the set of items, where each item is connected to those it is most similar to. The prediction of a user's rating on an item is then given by that rating of neighbouring items, weighted by their similarity. This paper presents a new neighbourhood approach which we call item fields, whereby an undirected graphical model is formed over the item graph. The resulting prediction rule is a simple generalization of the classical approaches, which takes into account non-local information in the graph, allowing its best results to be obtained when using drastically fewer edges than other neighbourhood approaches. A fast approximate maximum entropy training method based on the Bethe approximation is presented, which uses a simple gradient ascent procedure. When using precomputed sufficient statistics on the Movielens datasets, our method is faster than maximum likelihood approaches by two orders of magnitude.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2010

Conditional Random Fields and Support Vector Machines: A Hybrid Approach

We propose a novel hybrid loss for multiclass and structured prediction problems that is a convex combination of log loss for Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) and a multiclass hinge loss for Support Vector Machines (SVMs). We provide a sufficient condition for when the hybrid loss is Fisher consistent for classification. This condition depends on a measure of dominance between labels - specifically, the gap in per observation probabilities between the most likely labels. We also prove Fisher consistency is necessary for parametric consistency when learning models such as CRFs. We demonstrate empirically that the hybrid loss typically performs as least as well as - and often better than - both of its constituent losses on variety of tasks. In doing so we also provide an empirical comparison of the efficacy of probabilistic and margin based approaches to multiclass and structured prediction and the effects of label dominance on these results.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2009

Scalable Inference for Latent Dirichlet Allocation

We investigate the problem of learning a topic model - the well-known Latent Dirichlet Allocation - in a distributed manner, using a cluster of C processors and dividing the corpus to be learned equally among them. We propose a simple approximated method that can be tuned, trading speed for accuracy according to the task at hand. Our approach is asynchronous, and therefore suitable for clusters of heterogenous machines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2009

Exponential Family Graph Matching and Ranking

We present a method for learning max-weight matching predictors in bipartite graphs. The method consists of performing maximum a posteriori estimation in exponential families with sufficient statistics that encode permutations and data features. Although inference is in general hard, we show that for one very relevant application - web page ranking - exact inference is efficient. For general model instances, an appropriate sampler is readily available. Contrary to existing max-margin matching models, our approach is statistically consistent and, in addition, experiments with increasing sample sizes indicate superior improvement over such models. We apply the method to graph matching in computer vision as well as to a standard benchmark dataset for learning web page ranking, in which we obtain state-of-the-art results, in particular improving on max-margin variants. The drawback of this method with respect to max-margin alternatives is its runtime for large graphs, which is comparatively high.

cs.LG↗