arXiv subjects

Tiejun Ma

Publications and source records attributed to Tiejun Ma.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Summoning the Oracle to Slay It: Mitigating Look-Ahead Bias in Financial Backtesting with Large Language Models

Backtesting large language models (LLMs) on historical financial data is unreliable when their pre-training data include the evaluated events. An LLM trained in 2024 may already encode how stocks moved during 2018-2020. We name this failure parametric look-ahead bias and propose FinCAD, an inference-time adaptation of Context-Aware Decoding that attenuates contributions from memorised historical outcomes without retraining. FinCAD pairs an adversarial bias-discovery pipeline that learns a model-specific memory-activating prior prompt with an entity- and date-adaptive rule that scales the CAD strength using a per-(entity, date) confidence signal. Across five 7-14B LLMs and five mega-cap equities, the largest model-level mean in-sample return correction is -67.1%. For the three larger models, 2025 out-of-sample returns remain within $8K and mean Sharpe within $\pm$0.10 of baseline; mean general-benchmark accuracy remains positive or within -1.7 points for four of five models. On an eleven-model leaderboard, FinCAD raises the subset-averaged in-sample/out-of-sample Spearman correlation from +0.779 to +0.846, yielding rankings that are more closely aligned with post-cutoff performance.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Self Knowledge Re-expression: A Fully Local Method for Adapting LLMs to Tasks Using Intrinsic Knowledge

While the next-token prediction (NTP) paradigm enables large language models (LLMs) to express their intrinsic knowledge, its sequential nature constrains performance on specialized, non-generative tasks. We attribute this performance bottleneck to the LLMs' knowledge expression mechanism, rather than to deficiencies in knowledge acquisition. To address this, we propose Self-Knowledge Re-expression (SKR), a novel, task-agnostic adaptation method. SKR transforms the LLM's output from generic token generation to highly efficient, task-specific expression. SKR is a fully local method that uses only unannotated data, requiring neither human supervision nor model distillation. Experiments on a large financial document dataset demonstrate substantial improvements: over 40% in Recall@1 for information retrieval tasks, over 76% reduction in object detection latency, and over 33% increase in anomaly detection AUPRC. Our results on the MMDocRAG dataset surpass those of leading retrieval models by at least 12.6%.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Time is Not a Label: Continuous Phase Rotation for Temporal Knowledge Graphs and Agentic Memory

Structured memory representations such as knowledge graphs are central to autonomous agents and other long-lived systems. However, most existing approaches model time as discrete metadata, either sorting by recency (burying old-yet-permanent knowledge), simply overwriting outdated facts, or requiring an expensive LLM call at every ingestion step, leaving them unable to distinguish persistent facts from evolving ones. To address this, we introduce RoMem, a drop-in temporal knowledge graph module for structured memory systems, applicable to agentic memory and beyond. A pretrained Semantic Speed Gate maps each relation's text embedding to a volatility score, learning from data that evolving relations (e.g., "president of") should rotate fast while persistent ones (e.g., "born in") should remain stable. Combined with continuous phase rotation, this enables geometric shadowing: obsolete facts are rotated out of phase in complex vector space, so temporally correct facts naturally outrank contradictions without deletion. On temporal knowledge graph completion, RoMem achieves state-of-the-art results on ICEWS05-15 (72.6 MRR). Applied to agentic memory, it delivers 2-3x MRR and answer accuracy on temporal reasoning (MultiTQ), dominates hybrid benchmark (LoCoMo), preserves static memory with zero degradation (DMR-MSC), and generalises zero-shot to unseen financial domains (FinTMMBench).

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Committee Configuration Optimization for Parallel Byzantine Consensus in a Trusted Execution Environment

Parallel Byzantine Fault Tolerant (BFT) protocols based on committee-based sharding improve scalability but weaken safety since smaller node groups are responsible for consensus. Recent approaches integrate trusted execution environments (TEEs) into parallel BFT frameworks to enhance safety. While the scalability and safety issues are addressed by trusted parallel BFT, existing committee configuration methods often rely on randomized assignment, which can degrade performance. This paper proposes a committee configuration optimization (CCO) model based on mixed integer programming to improve transaction performance for trusted parallel BFT. The model considers communication delays and node failure rates to determine an optimal committee configuration that minimizes transaction latency under both normal operations and scenarios of trusted hardware failures. We integrate CCO into a trusted parallel BFT protocol and evaluate the performance on Microsoft virtual machines. Experimental results demonstrate 15% and 21% improved transaction throughput under normal operations and fallback process, respectively, highlighting the benefits of optimization-driven committee configuration in trusted parallel BFT systems.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2026

Spectral Attention Steering for Prompt Highlighting

Attention steering is an important technique for controlling model focus, enabling capabilities such as prompt highlighting, where the model prioritises user-specified text. However, existing attention steering methods require explicit storage of the full attention matrix, making them incompatible with memory-efficient implementations like FlashAttention. We introduce Spectral Editing Key Amplification (SEKA), a training-free steering method that tackles this by directly editing key embeddings before attention computation. SEKA uses spectral decomposition to steer key embeddings towards latent directions that amplify attention scores for certain tokens. We extend this to Adaptive SEKA (AdaSEKA), a query-adaptive variant that uses a training-free routing mechanism to dynamically combine multiple expert subspaces based on the prompt's semantic intent. Our experiments show both methods significantly outperform strong baselines on standard steering benchmarks while adding much lower latency and memory overhead, in compatibility with optimised attention.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Optimizing View Change for Byzantine Fault Tolerance in Parallel Consensus

The parallel Byzantine Fault Tolerant (BFT) protocol is viewed as a promising solution to address the consensus scalability issue of the permissioned blockchain. One of the main challenges in parallel BFT is the view change process that happens when the leader node fails, which can lead to performance bottlenecks. Existing parallel BFT protocols typically rely on passive view change mechanisms with blind leader rotation. Such approaches frequently select unavailable or slow nodes as leaders, resulting in degraded performance. To address these challenges, we propose a View Change Optimization (VCO) model based on mixed integer programming that optimizes leader selection and follower reassignment across parallel committees by considering communication delays and failure scenarios. We applied a decomposition method with efficient subproblems and improved benders cuts to solve the VCO model. Leveraging the results of improved decomposition solution method, we propose an efficient iterative backup leader selection algorithm as views proceed. By performing experiments in Microsoft Azure cloud environments, we demonstrate that the VCO-driven parallel BFT outperforms existing configuration methods under both normal operation and faulty condition. The results show that the VCO model is effective as network size increases, making it a suitable solution for high-performance parallel BFT systems.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2025

One More Question is Enough, Expert Question Decomposition (EQD) Model for Domain Quantitative Reasoning

Domain-specific quantitative reasoning remains a major challenge for large language models (LLMs), especially in fields requiring expert knowledge and complex question answering (QA). In this work, we propose Expert Question Decomposition (EQD), an approach designed to balance the use of domain knowledge with computational efficiency. EQD is built on a two-step fine-tuning framework and guided by a reward function that measures the effectiveness of generated sub-questions in improving QA outcomes. It requires only a few thousand training examples and a single A100 GPU for fine-tuning, with inference time comparable to zero-shot prompting. Beyond its efficiency, EQD outperforms state-of-the-art domain-tuned models and advanced prompting strategies. We evaluate EQD in the financial domain, characterized by specialized knowledge and complex quantitative reasoning, across four benchmark datasets. Our method consistently improves QA performance by 0.6% to 10.5% across different LLMs. Our analysis reveals an important insight: in domain-specific QA, a single supporting question often provides greater benefit than detailed guidance steps.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

GRAB: A Risk Taxonomy--Grounded Benchmark for Unsupervised Topic Discovery in Financial Disclosures

Risk categorization in 10-K risk disclosures matters for oversight and investment, yet no public benchmark evaluates unsupervised topic models for this task. We present GRAB, a finance-specific benchmark with 1.61M sentences from 8,247 filings and span-grounded sentence labels produced without manual annotation by combining FinBERT token attention, YAKE keyphrase signals, and taxonomy-aware collocation matching. Labels are anchored in a risk taxonomy mapping 193 terms to 21 fine-grained types nested under five macro classes; the 21 types guide weak supervision, while evaluation is reported at the macro level. GRAB unifies evaluation with fixed dataset splits and robust metrics--Accuracy, Macro-F1, Topic BERTScore, and the entropy-based Effective Number of Topics. The dataset, labels, and code enable reproducible, standardized comparison across classical, embedding-based, neural, and hybrid topic models on financial disclosures.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Learn to Rank Risky Investors: A Case Study of Predicting Retail Traders' Behaviour and Profitability

Identifying risky traders with high profits in financial markets is crucial for market makers, such as trading exchanges, to ensure effective risk management through real-time decisions on regulation compliance and hedging. However, capturing the complex and dynamic behaviours of individual traders poses significant challenges. Traditional classification and anomaly detection methods often establish a fixed risk boundary, failing to account for this complexity and dynamism. To tackle this issue, we propose a profit-aware risk ranker (PA-RiskRanker) that reframes the problem of identifying risky traders as a ranking task using Learning-to-Rank (LETOR) algorithms. Our approach features a Profit-Aware binary cross entropy (PA-BCE) loss function and a transformer-based ranker enhanced with a self-cross-trader attention pipeline. These components effectively integrate profit and loss (P&L) considerations into the training process while capturing intra- and inter-trader relationships. Our research critically examines the limitations of existing deep learning-based LETOR algorithms in trading risk management, which often overlook the importance of P&L in financial scenarios. By prioritising P&L, our method improves risky trader identification, achieving an 8.4% increase in F1 score compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) ranking models like Rankformer. Additionally, it demonstrates a 10%-17% increase in average profit compared to all benchmark models.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

FinGEAR: Financial Mapping-Guided Enhanced Answer Retrieval

Financial disclosures such as 10-K filings present challenging retrieval problems due to their length, regulatory section hierarchy, and domain-specific language, which standard retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) models underuse. We introduce FinGEAR (Financial Mapping-Guided Enhanced Answer Retrieval), a retrieval framework tailored to financial documents. FinGEAR combines a finance lexicon for Item-level guidance (FLAM), dual hierarchical indices for within-Item search (Summary Tree and Question Tree), and a two-stage cross-encoder reranker. This design aligns retrieval with disclosure structure and terminology, enabling fine-grained, query-aware context selection. Evaluated on full 10-Ks with queries aligned to the FinQA dataset, FinGEAR delivers consistent gains in precision, recall, F1, and relevancy, improving F1 by up to 56.7% over flat RAG, 12.5% over graph-based RAGs, and 217.6% over prior tree-based systems, while also increasing downstream answer accuracy with a fixed reader. By jointly modeling section hierarchy and domain lexicon signals, FinGEAR improves retrieval fidelity and provides a practical foundation for high-stakes financial analysis.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

Pre-training Time Series Models with Stock Data Customization

Stock selection, which aims to predict stock prices and identify the most profitable ones, is a crucial task in finance. While existing methods primarily focus on developing model structures and building graphs for improved selection, pre-training strategies remain underexplored in this domain. Current stock series pre-training follows methods from other areas without adapting to the unique characteristics of financial data, particularly overlooking stock-specific contextual information and the non-stationary nature of stock prices. Consequently, the latent statistical features inherent in stock data are underutilized. In this paper, we propose three novel pre-training tasks tailored to stock data characteristics: stock code classification, stock sector classification, and moving average prediction. We develop the Stock Specialized Pre-trained Transformer (SSPT) based on a two-layer transformer architecture. Extensive experimental results validate the effectiveness of our pre-training methods and provide detailed guidance on their application. Evaluations on five stock datasets, including four markets and two time periods, demonstrate that SSPT consistently outperforms the market and existing methods in terms of both cumulative investment return ratio and Sharpe ratio. Additionally, our experiments on simulated data investigate the underlying mechanisms of our methods, providing insights into understanding price series. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/astudentuser/Pre-training-Time-Series-Models-with-Stock-Data-Customization.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

Can LLM-based Financial Investing Strategies Outperform the Market in Long Run?

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been leveraged for asset pricing tasks and stock trading applications, enabling AI agents to generate investment decisions from unstructured financial data. However, most evaluations of LLM timing-based investing strategies are conducted on narrow timeframes and limited stock universes, overstating effectiveness due to survivorship and data-snooping biases. We critically assess their generalizability and robustness by proposing FINSABER, a backtesting framework evaluating timing-based strategies across longer periods and a larger universe of symbols. Systematic backtests over two decades and 100+ symbols reveal that previously reported LLM advantages deteriorate significantly under broader cross-section and over a longer-term evaluation. Our market regime analysis further demonstrates that LLM strategies are overly conservative in bull markets, underperforming passive benchmarks, and overly aggressive in bear markets, incurring heavy losses. These findings highlight the need to develop LLM strategies that are able to prioritise trend detection and regime-aware risk controls over mere scaling of framework complexity.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2024

TSPRank: Bridging Pairwise and Listwise Methods with a Bilinear Travelling Salesman Model

Traditional Learning-To-Rank (LETOR) approaches, including pairwise methods like RankNet and LambdaMART, often fall short by solely focusing on pairwise comparisons, leading to sub-optimal global rankings. Conversely, deep learning based listwise methods, while aiming to optimise entire lists, require complex tuning and yield only marginal improvements over robust pairwise models. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Travelling Salesman Problem Rank (TSPRank), a hybrid pairwise-listwise ranking method. TSPRank reframes the ranking problem as a Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP), a well-known combinatorial optimisation challenge that has been extensively studied for its numerous solution algorithms and applications. This approach enables the modelling of pairwise relationships and leverages combinatorial optimisation to determine the listwise ranking. This approach can be directly integrated as an additional component into embeddings generated by existing backbone models to enhance ranking performance. Our extensive experiments across three backbone models on diverse tasks, including stock ranking, information retrieval, and historical events ordering, demonstrate that TSPRank significantly outperforms both pure pairwise and listwise methods. Our qualitative analysis reveals that TSPRank's main advantage over existing methods is its ability to harness global information better while ranking. TSPRank's robustness and superior performance across different domains highlight its potential as a versatile and effective LETOR solution.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Modeling News Interactions and Influence for Financial Market Prediction

The diffusion of financial news into market prices is a complex process, making it challenging to evaluate the connections between news events and market movements. This paper introduces FININ (Financial Interconnected News Influence Network), a novel market prediction model that captures not only the links between news and prices but also the interactions among news items themselves. FININ effectively integrates multi-modal information from both market data and news articles. We conduct extensive experiments on two datasets, encompassing the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices over a 15-year period and over 2.7 million news articles. The results demonstrate FININ's effectiveness, outperforming advanced market prediction models with an improvement of 0.429 and 0.341 in the daily Sharpe ratio for the two markets respectively. Moreover, our results reveal insights into the financial news, including the delayed market pricing of news, the long memory effect of news, and the limitations of financial sentiment analysis in fully extracting predictive power from news data.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2024

MANA-Net: Mitigating Aggregated Sentiment Homogenization with News Weighting for Enhanced Market Prediction

It is widely acknowledged that extracting market sentiments from news data benefits market predictions. However, existing methods of using financial sentiments remain simplistic, relying on equal-weight and static aggregation to manage sentiments from multiple news items. This leads to a critical issue termed ``Aggregated Sentiment Homogenization'', which has been explored through our analysis of a large financial news dataset from industry practice. This phenomenon occurs when aggregating numerous sentiments, causing representations to converge towards the mean values of sentiment distributions and thereby smoothing out unique and important information. Consequently, the aggregated sentiment representations lose much predictive value of news data. To address this problem, we introduce the Market Attention-weighted News Aggregation Network (MANA-Net), a novel method that leverages a dynamic market-news attention mechanism to aggregate news sentiments for market prediction. MANA-Net learns the relevance of news sentiments to price changes and assigns varying weights to individual news items. By integrating the news aggregation step into the networks for market prediction, MANA-Net allows for trainable sentiment representations that are optimized directly for prediction. We evaluate MANA-Net using the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices, along with financial news spanning from 2003 to 2018. Experimental results demonstrate that MANA-Net outperforms various recent market prediction methods, enhancing Profit & Loss by 1.1% and the daily Sharpe ratio by 0.252.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Quantitative Statistical Robustness for Tail-Dependent Law Invariant Risk Measures

When estimating the risk of a financial position with empirical data or Monte Carlo simulations via a tail-dependent law invariant risk measure such as the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), it is important to ensure the robustness of the statistical estimator particularly when the data contain noise. Kratscher et al. [1] propose a new framework to examine the qualitative robustness of estimators for tail-dependent law invariant risk measures on Orlicz spaces, which is a step further from earlier work for studying the robustness of risk measurement procedures by Cont et al. [2]. In this paper, we follow the stream of research to propose a quantitative approach for verifying the statistical robustness of tail-dependent law invariant risk measures. A distinct feature of our approach is that we use the Fortet-Mourier metric to quantify the variation of the true underlying probability measure in the analysis of the discrepancy between the laws of the plug-in estimators of law invariant risk measure based on the true data and perturbed data, which enables us to derive an explicit error bound for the discrepancy when the risk functional is Lipschitz continuous with respect to a class of admissible laws. Moreover, the newly introduced notion of Lipschitz continuity allows us to examine the degree of robustness for tail-dependent risk measures. Finally, we apply our quantitative approach to some well-known risk measures to illustrate our theory.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2019

Can Deep Learning Predict Risky Retail Investors? A Case Study in Financial Risk Behavior Forecasting

The paper examines the potential of deep learning to support decisions in financial risk management. We develop a deep learning model for predicting whether individual spread traders secure profits from future trades. This task embodies typical modeling challenges faced in risk and behavior forecasting. Conventional machine learning requires data that is representative of the feature-target relationship and relies on the often costly development, maintenance, and revision of handcrafted features. Consequently, modeling highly variable, heterogeneous patterns such as trader behavior is challenging. Deep learning promises a remedy. Learning hierarchical distributed representations of the data in an automatic manner (e.g. risk taking behavior), it uncovers generative features that determine the target (e.g., trader's profitability), avoids manual feature engineering, and is more robust toward change (e.g. dynamic market conditions). The results of employing a deep network for operational risk forecasting confirm the feature learning capability of deep learning, provide guidance on designing a suitable network architecture and demonstrate the superiority of deep learning over machine learning and rule-based benchmarks.

q-fin.RM↗