arXiv subjects

Tiffany A. Shaw

Publications and source records attributed to Tiffany A. Shaw.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Benchmarking Regional Thermodynamic Trends in an AI emulator, ACE2, and a hybrid model, NeuralGCM

AI models have emerged as potential complements to physics-based models, but their skill in capturing observed regional climate trends with important societal impacts has not been explored. Here, we benchmark satellite-era regional thermodynamic trends, including extremes, in an AI emulator (ACE2) and a hybrid model (NeuralGCM). We also compare the AI models' skill to physics-based land-atmosphere models. Both AI models show skill in capturing regional temperature trends such as Arctic Amplification. ACE2 outperforms other models in capturing vertical temperature trends in the midlatitudes. However, the AI models do not capture regional trends in heat extremes over the US Southwest. Furthermore, they do not capture drying trends in arid regions, even though they generally perform better than physics-based models. Our results also show that a data-driven AI emulator can perform comparably to, or better than, hybrid and physics-based models in capturing regional thermodynamic trends.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Reducing Surface Wetness Leads to Tropical Hydrological Cycle Regime Transition

Earth's modern climate is characterized by wet, rainy deep tropics, however paleoclimate and planetary science have revealed a wide range of hydrological cycle regimes connected to different external parameters. Here we investigate how surface wetness affects the tropical hydrological cycle. When surface wetness is decreased in an Earth-like general circulation model, the tropics remain wet but transition from a rainy to rain-free regime. The rain-free regime occurs when surface precipitation is suppressed as negative evaporation (surface condensation) balances moisture flux convergence. The regime transition is dominated by near-surface relative humidity changes in contrast to the hypothesis that relative humidity changes are small. We show near-surface relative humidity changes responsible for the regime transition are controlled by re-evaporation of stratiform precipitation near the lifting condensation level. Re-evaporation impacts the near-surface through vertical mixing. Our results reveal a new rain-free tropical hydrological cycle regime that goes beyond the wet/dry paradigm.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2011

Stirring up trouble: Multi-scale mixing measures for steady scalar sources

The mixing efficiency of a flow advecting a passive scalar sustained by steady sources and sinks is naturally defined in terms of the suppression of bulk scalar variance in the presence of stirring, relative to the variance in the absence of stirring. These variances can be weighted at various spatial scales, leading to a family of multi-scale mixing measures and efficiencies. We derive a priori estimates on these efficiencies from the advection--diffusion partial differential equation, focusing on a broad class of statistically homogeneous and isotropic incompressible flows. The analysis produces bounds on the mixing efficiencies in terms of the Peclet number, a measure the strength of the stirring relative to molecular diffusion. We show by example that the estimates are sharp for particular source, sink and flow combinations. In general the high-Peclet number behavior of the bounds (scaling exponents as well as prefactors) depends on the structure and smoothness properties of, and length scales in, the scalar source and sink distribution. The fundamental model of the stirring of a monochromatic source/sink combination by the random sine flow is investigated in detail via direct numerical simulation and analysis. The large-scale mixing efficiency follows the upper bound scaling (within a logarithm) at high Peclet number but the intermediate and small-scale efficiencies are qualitatively less than optimal. The Peclet number scaling exponents of the efficiencies observed in the simulations are deduced theoretically from the asymptotic solution of an internal layer problem arising in a quasi-static model.

physics.flu-dyn↗