arXiv subjects

Tiffany Ding

Publications and source records attributed to Tiffany Ding.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Conformal Prediction with Macro-Coverage Guarantees

Prediction sets should have high coverage to be useful, but some coverage notions are more practically relevant than others. In the classification setting, class-conditional coverage requires that the prediction set (i.e., the set of candidate labels for a new test point) must achieve the target accuracy level within each class, which may be challenging to satisfy when many classes are rare and have few calibration points. At the other extreme, marginal coverage requires only that coverage holds on average over the distribution of all classes, which can lead to low-probability labels being essentially ignored. To find a middle ground, recent work has introduced macro-coverage, defined as the unweighted average of class-conditional coverages. Macro-coverage offers a compromise between marginal coverage and class-conditional coverage that is particularly appropriate for long-tailed settings. In this work, we show that label-weighted conformal prediction can be used to produce prediction sets with a finite-sample macro-coverage guarantee, and more generally a guarantee on a family of generalized macro-coverage objectives that aggregate coverage at the level of arbitrary class groupings and take a weighted average. We further characterize the form of the smallest prediction sets satisfying a given generalized macro-coverage objective and propose a corresponding conformal score function. We validate our theoretical results on two large-scale image classification datasets.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Calibrated Multi-Level Quantile Forecasting

We develop an online method that guarantees calibration of quantile forecasts at multiple quantile levels simultaneously. In this work, a sequence of quantile forecasts is said to be calibrated provided that its $\alpha$-level predictions are greater than or equal to the target value at an $\alpha$ fraction of time steps, for each level $\alpha$. Our procedure, called the multi-level quantile tracker (MultiQT), is lightweight and wraps around any point or quantile forecaster to produce adjusted quantile forecasts that are guaranteed to be calibrated, even against adversarial distribution shifts. Critically, it does so while ensuring that the quantiles remain ordered, e.g., the 0.5-level quantile forecast will never be larger than the 0.6-level forecast. Moreover, the method has a no-regret guarantee, implying it will not degrade the performance of the existing forecaster (asymptotically), with respect to the quantile loss. In our experiments, we find that MultiQT significantly improves the calibration of real forecasters in epidemic and energy forecasting problems, while leaving the quantile loss largely unchanged or slightly improved.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Conformal Prediction for Long-Tailed Classification

Many real-world classification problems, such as plant identification, have extremely long-tailed class distributions. In order for prediction sets to be useful in such settings, they should (i) provide good class-conditional coverage, ensuring that rare classes are not systematically omitted from the prediction sets, and (ii) be a reasonable size, allowing users to easily verify candidate labels. Unfortunately, existing conformal prediction methods, when applied to the long-tailed setting, force practitioners to make a binary choice between small sets with poor class-conditional coverage or sets that have very good class-conditional coverage but are extremely large. We propose methods with marginal coverage guarantees that smoothly trade off set size and class-conditional coverage. First, we introduce a new conformal score function called prevalence-adjusted softmax that optimizes for macro-coverage, defined as the average class-conditional coverage across classes. Second, we propose a new procedure that interpolates between marginal and class-conditional conformal prediction by linearly interpolating their conformal score thresholds. We demonstrate our methods on Pl@ntNet-300K and iNaturalist-2018, two long-tailed image datasets with 1,081 and 8,142 classes, respectively.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Marketplace Operators Can Induce Competitive Pricing

As e-commerce marketplaces continue to grow in popularity, it has become increasingly important to understand the role and impact of marketplace operators on competition and social welfare. We model a marketplace operator as an entity that not only facilitates third-party sales but can also choose to directly participate in the market as a competing seller. We formalize this market structure as a price-quantity Stackelberg duopoly in which the leader is a marketplace operator and the follower is an independent seller who shares a fraction of their revenue with the marketplace operator for the privilege of selling on the platform. The objective of the marketplace operator is to maximize a weighted sum of profit and a term capturing positive customer experience, whereas the independent seller seeks solely to maximize their own profit. We derive the subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium and find that it is often optimal for the marketplace operator to induce competition by offering the product at a low price to incentivize the independent seller to match their price.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2024

Privacy Can Arise Endogenously in an Economic System with Learning Agents

We study price-discrimination games between buyers and a seller where privacy arises endogenously--that is, utility maximization yields equilibrium strategies where privacy occurs naturally. In this game, buyers with a high valuation for a good have an incentive to keep their valuation private, lest the seller charge them a higher price. This yields an equilibrium where some buyers will send a signal that misrepresents their type with some probability; we refer to this as buyer-induced privacy. When the seller is able to publicly commit to providing a certain privacy level, we find that their equilibrium response is to commit to ignore buyers' signals with some positive probability; we refer to this as seller-induced privacy. We then turn our attention to a repeated interaction setting where the game parameters are unknown and the seller cannot credibly commit to a level of seller-induced privacy. In this setting, players must learn strategies based on information revealed in past rounds. We find that, even without commitment ability, seller-induced privacy arises as a result of reputation building. We characterize the resulting seller-induced privacy and seller's utility under no-regret and no-policy-regret learning algorithms and verify these results through simulations.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2023

Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction with Many Classes

Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems, we would like to obtain a stronger guarantee--that for test points of a specific class, the prediction set contains the true label with the same user-chosen probability. For the latter goal, existing conformal prediction methods do not work well when there is a limited amount of labeled data per class, as is often the case in real applications where the number of classes is large. We propose a method called clustered conformal prediction that clusters together classes having "similar" conformal scores and performs conformal prediction at the cluster level. Based on empirical evaluation across four image data sets with many (up to 1000) classes, we find that clustered conformal typically outperforms existing methods in terms of class-conditional coverage and set size metrics.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Learning from Multiple Noisy Partial Labelers

Programmatic weak supervision creates models without hand-labeled training data by combining the outputs of heuristic labelers. Existing frameworks make the restrictive assumption that labelers output a single class label. Enabling users to create partial labelers that output subsets of possible class labels would greatly expand the expressivity of programmatic weak supervision. We introduce this capability by defining a probabilistic generative model that can estimate the underlying accuracies of multiple noisy partial labelers without ground truth labels. We show how to scale up learning, for example learning on 100k examples in one minute, a 300x speed up compared to a naive implementation. We also prove that this class of models is generically identifiable up to label swapping under mild conditions. We evaluate our framework on three text classification and six object classification tasks. On text tasks, adding partial labels increases average accuracy by 8.6 percentage points. On image tasks, we show that partial labels allow us to approach some zero-shot object classification problems with programmatic weak supervision by using class attributes as partial labelers. On these tasks, our framework has accuracy comparable to recent embedding-based zero-shot learning methods, while using only pre-trained attribute detectors.

cs.LG↗