arXiv subjects

Till Sawala

Publications and source records attributed to Till Sawala.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Expanding stellar associations as Galactic accelerometers

The gravitational potential of the Milky Way is fundamental for understanding the evolution of our Galaxy and the nature of dark matter. We introduce a new method to constrain the Galactic potential using expanding young stellar associations. We exploit the physical constraint that these stars share a common, compact origin to reconstruct their most likely orbits and infer the gravitational potential in which they have evolved. We define the size of an association using the trace and determinant of its position covariance matrix. By integrating synthetic associations backward in different trial potentials, we show how the true potential can be identified as the one that minimises these metrics. We demonstrate that, while current observational errors are still too large, upcoming observations will allow us to distinguish between different potentials. Our results suggest that with Gaia DR4 astrometry and radial velocity errors below 0.2 km/s, the halo mass can be constrained with a precision of 0.6 trillion solar masses and the concentration with a precision of < 0.8 using a single association, albeit with significant degeneracies. In addition, we show that the inferred dynamical traceback age is sensitive to the gravitational potential, suggesting that independent age information can help break existing degeneracies, but also that traceback-age estimates are not independent of the assumed potential. Expanding stellar associations carry information about the gravitational potential in which they have evolved. With the arrival of next-generation astrometry and high-precision radial velocities, they will provide a complementary tool for constraining the Galactic potential.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

The local galaxy distribution does not violate the cosmological principle

The cosmological principle, which states that the Universe is statistically homogeneous and isotropic on sufficiently large scales, is a foundational assumption of the standard cosmological model. A recent analysis of DESI DR1 galaxy samples reported coherent anisotropic features in the local galaxy distribution extending to gigaparsec scales. If correct, this result would directly contradict the cosmological principle and motivate inhomogeneous cosmologies. Here I analyze the same data and compare them with galaxy distributions predicted by the FLAMINGO cosmological hydrodynamic simulation, performed in the standard $\Lambda$CDM paradigm. I show that the apparent anomaly disappears when the correct comoving distance scale is used and when the observations are compared to mock catalogs that account for bias and redshift-space distortions. Rather than violating the cosmological principle, the observed structures are consistent with those expected in a $\Lambda$CDM Universe.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Cylindrical cosmological simulations with StePS

The global topology of the Universe can affect long-range gravitational forces via boundary conditions. Detailed studies of non-trivial topologies require simulations that natively adopt such geometries. Cosmological $N$-body simulations typically evolve matter in a periodic cubic box. While numerically convenient, this imposes a non-trivial three-torus topology that affects long-range gravitational forces, potentially biasing large-scale statistics. We introduce a compactified simulation framework that is only periodic along a single axis, characterised by an infinite topology with isotropic boundary conditions towards the perpendicular directions, namely, a $\mathrm{S}^1\times\mathbb{R}^2$ (slab) topology. This new simulation geometry is ideal for simulating systems with cylindrical symmetries such as filaments or certain anisotropic cosmological models. We compactified the comoving space via an inverse stereographic projection along the radial direction of a periodic cylinder. Then, we evolved the particles based on Newtonian dynamics. A smoothly varying spatial and mass resolution with radius suppresses edge artefacts at the free outer boundary. Our implementation in the StePS (STEreographically Projected cosmological Simulations) framework uses a direct force calculation that maps efficiently to GPUs, as well as an Octree force calculation for use on large CPU clusters. The cylindrical domain's topology enables fully self-consistent simulations to be run in the $\mathrm{S}^1\times\mathbb{R}^2$ manifold, while mitigating any periodic-image artefacts with respect to targets whose symmetries are mismatched to a cubic box. The main trade-off is a radially varying resolution with distinct systematics and analysis requirements. Finally, we demonstrate the accuracy of the new simulation method via a standard lambda cold dark matter cosmological simulation.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Planes of satellites, at once transient and persistent

The appearance of highly anisotropic planes of satellites around the Milky Way and other galaxies was long considered a challenge to the standard cosmological model. Some recent simulations have found flattened satellite systems to be common, but these have been described as either "transient", short-lived alignments, or "persistent", long-lived structures. Here we analyse Milky Way analogue systems in the cosmological simulation TNG-50 to resolve this apparent contradiction. We show that, as the satellite populations of individual hosts rapidly change, the observed spatial anisotropies of their satellite systems are invariably short-lived, with lifetimes of no more than a few hundred million years. However, when the progenitors of the same satellites are traced backwards, we find examples where those identified to form a plane at the present day have retained spatial coherence over several billion years. The two ostensibly conflicting predictions for the lifetimes of satellite planes can be reconciled as two perspectives on the same phenomenon.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Stellar Cores Live Long and Prosper in Cuspy Dark Matter Halos

The existence of cuspy or cored centers of dark matter halos is a crucial discriminant between different dark matter models. It has recently been claimed based on dynamical arguments that perfectly cored stellar systems cannot survive inside cuspy dark matter halos, which would make the observation of stellar cores in ultrafaint dwarf galaxies, where dark matter cores cannot form through baryonic processes, a direct falsification of the cold dark matter paradigm. Here, we use idealized simulations to show explicitly that cored stellar systems like those observed in dwarf galaxies can be stable within cuspy dark matter halos over at least several Hubble times. We also demonstrate that observations of ultrafaint dwarf galaxies cannot distinguish mildly positive, flat, or negative inner density slopes, further precluding the dynamical inference of the gravitational potential from the stellar configuration.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The Giant Arc -- Filament or Figment?

The so-called "Giant Arc" is a sparse pattern of MgII absorbers spanning approximately 740 comoving Mpc, whose discovery has been claimed to contradict the large-scale homogeneity inherent to the standard cosmological model. We previously showed that, with the same algorithm and parameters used for its discovery, very similar patterns are abundant in uniform random distributions, and among equivalent halo samples in a cosmological simulation of the standard model. In a response, the original discoverers of the "Giant Arc" have argued that these parameters were only appropriate for their specific observational data, but that a smaller linking length should be used for control studies, in which case far fewer patterns are detected. We briefly review and disprove these arguments, and demonstrate that large patterns like the "Giant Arc" are indeed ubiquitous in a statistically homogeneous universe.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

The Emperor's New Arc: gigaparsec patterns abound in a $Λ$CDM universe

Recent discoveries of apparent large-scale features in the structure of the universe, extending over many hundreds of megaparsecs, have been claimed to contradict the large-scale isotropy and homogeneity foundational to the standard ($Λ$CDM) cosmological model. We explicitly test and refute this conjecture using FLAMINGO-10K, a new and very large cosmological simulation of the growth of structure in a $Λ$CDM context. Applying the same methods used in the observations, we show that patterns like the "Giant Arc", supposedly in tension with the standard model, are, in fact, common and expected in a $Λ$CDM universe. We also show that their reported significant overdensities are an algorithmic artefact and unlikely to reflect any underlying structure.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Apocalypse When? No Certainty of a Milky Way -- Andromeda Collision

It is commonly believed that our own Milky Way is on a collision course with the neighbouring Andromeda galaxy. As a result of their merger, predicted in around five billion years, the two large spiral galaxies that define the present Local Group would form a new elliptical galaxy. Here we consider the latest and most accurate observations by the Gaia and Hubble space telescopes, along with recent consensus mass estimates to derive possible future scenarios and identify the major sources of uncertainty in the evolution of the Local Group over the next 10 billion years. We find that the next most massive Local Group member galaxies -- namely, M33 and the Large Magellanic Cloud -- distinctly and radically affect the Milky Way - Andromeda orbit. While including M33 increases the merger probability, the orbit of the Large Magellanic Cloud runs perpendicular to the Milky Way - Andromeda orbit and makes their merger less likely. In the full system, we find that uncertainties in the present positions, motions, and masses of all galaxies leave room for drastically different outcomes, and a probability of close to 50% that there is no Milky Way - Andromeda merger during the next 10 billion years.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Distinct distributions of elliptical and disk galaxies across the Local Supercluster as a $Λ$CDM prediction

Galaxies of different types are not equally distributed in the Local Universe. In particular, the supergalactic plane is prominent among the brightest ellipticals, but inconspicuous among the brightest disk galaxies. This striking difference provides a unique test for our understanding of galaxy and structure formation. Here we use the SIBELIUS DARK constrained simulation to confront the predictions of the standard Lambda Cold Dark Matter ($Λ$CDM) model and standard galaxy formation theory with these observations. We find that SIBELIUS DARK reproduces the spatial distributions of disks and ellipticals and, in particular, the observed excess of massive ellipticals near the supergalactic equator. We show that this follows directly from the local large-scale structure and from the standard galaxy formation paradigm, wherein disk galaxies evolve mostly in isolation, while giant ellipticals congregate in the massive clusters that define the supergalactic plane. Rather than being anomalous as earlier works have suggested, the distributions of giant ellipticals and disks in the Local Universe and in relation to the supergalactic plane are key predictions of the $Λ$CDM model.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

The Timeless Timing Argument and the Mass of the Local Group

The Timing Argument connects the motion of a two-body system to its mass in an expanding Universe with a finite age, under the assumption that it has evolved on a self-gravitating orbit. It is commonly applied to the present-day Milky Way-M31 system in order to infer its unknown mass from the measured kinematics. We use a set of Local Group analogues from the Uchuu simulation to investigate the Timing Argument over cosmic time. We find that the median inferred mass remains almost constant over the past 12 Gyr, even while the haloes themselves grew in mass by more than an order of magnitude. By contrast, we find a closer, and nearly time-invariant agreement between the Timing Argument value and the mass within a sphere of radius equal to the MW-M31 separation, and we identify this as the total mass of the system. We conclude that the comparatively close present-day agreement between the Timing Argument and the sum of the halo masses reflects no underlying relation, but merely echoes the fact that the MW and M31 now contain most (but not all) of the mass of the Local Group system.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2023

Modelling the accretion and feedback of supermassive black hole binaries in gas-rich galaxy mergers

We introduce a new model for the accretion and feedback of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries to the KETJU code, which enables us to resolve the evolution of SMBH binaries down to separations of tens of Schwarzschild radii in gas-rich galaxy mergers. Our subgrid binary accretion model extends the widely used Bondi--Hoyle--Lyttleton accretion into the binary phase and incorporates preferential mass accretion onto the secondary SMBH, which is motivated by results from small-scale hydrodynamical circumbinary disc simulations. We perform idealised gas-rich disc galaxy merger simulations using pure thermal or pure kinetic active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback. Our binary accretion model provides more physically motivated SMBH mass ratios, which are one of the key parameters for computing gravitational wave (GW) induced recoil velocities. The merger time-scales of our simulated SMBH binaries are in the range $t_{\rm merge}{\sim} 10$--$400$ Myr. Prograde in-plane equal-mass galaxy mergers lead to the shortest merger time-scales, as they experience the strongest starbursts, with the ensuing high stellar density resulting in a rapid SMBH coalescence. Compared to the thermal AGN feedback, the kinetic AGN feedback predicts longer merger time-scales and results in more core-like stellar profiles, as it is more effective in removing gas from the galaxy centre and quenching star formation. This suggests that the AGN feedback implementation plays a critical role in modelling SMBH coalescences. Our model will be useful for improving the modelling of SMBH mergers in gas-rich galaxies, the prime targets for the upcoming LISA GW observatory.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

The Local Group's mass: probably no more than the sum of its parts

The total mass of the Local Group (LG) and the masses of its primary constituents, the Milky Way and M31, are important anchors for several cosmological questions. In recent years, independent measurements have consistently yielded halo masses close to $10^{12} \mathrm{M_\odot}$ for the MW, and $1-2 \times 10^{12} \mathrm{M_\odot}$ for M31, while estimates derived from the pair's kinematics via the `timing argument' have yielded a combined mass of around $5 \times 10^{12} \mathrm{M_\odot}$. Here, we analyse the extremely large Uchuu simulation to constrain the mass of the Local Group and its two most massive members. First, we demonstrate the importance of selecting LG analogues whose kinematics are dominated by mutual interactions to a similar extent as the LG. Adopting the observed separation and radial velocity, we obtain a weighted posterior of $75_{-40}^{+65}$ kms$^{-1}$ for the uncertain transverse velocity. Via Gaussian process regression, we infer a total mass of $3.2^{+1.2}_{-0.9} \times 10^{12} \mathrm{M_\odot}$, significantly below the timing argument prediction. Importantly, we show that the remaining uncertainty is not rooted in the analysis or observational errors, but in the irreducible scatter in the kinematics-mass relation. We further find a mass for the less massive halo of $0.9_{-0.3}^{+0.6} \times 10^{12} \mathrm{M_\odot}$ and for the more massive halo of $2.3_{-0.9}^{+1.0} \times 10^{12} \mathrm{M_\odot}$, consistent with independent measurements of the masses of MW and M31, respectively. Incorporating the mass of the MW as an additional prior allows us to further constrain all measurements and determine that the MW is very likely to be the lower mass object of the two.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

Velocity-dependent J-factors for Milky Way dwarf spheroidal analogues in cosmological simulations

We study the impact of the dark matter velocity distribution modelling on signals from velocity-dependent dark matter annihilation in Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxies. Using the high resolution APOSTLE simulations, we identify analogues corresponding to Milky Way dwarf spheroidal galaxies, and from these directly determine the dark matter pair-wise relative velocity distribution, and compare to best-fitting Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution models. For three velocity-dependent annihilation models, p-wave, d-wave, and the Sommerfeld model, we quantify the errors introduced when using the Maxwell-Boltzmann parameterization. We extract a simple power-law relation between the maximum circular velocity of the dwarf spheroidal analogue and the peak speed of the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution. We show that this relation can be used to accurately calculate the dark matter relative velocity distribution, and find that it allows us to estimate the dark matter annihilation signal without the need to directly calculate the relative velocity distribution for each galaxy. The scatter in the J-factors calculated from the analogues dominates the uncertainty obtained when compared to the J-factor as determined from the observational data for each dwarf spheroidal, with the largest scatter from d-wave models and the smallest from Sommerfeld models.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2022

The Milky Way's plane of satellites: consistent with $Λ$CDM

The "plane of satellites problem" describes the arrangement of the Milky Way's 11 brightest satellite galaxies in a remarkably thin plane, possibly supported by rotation. This is in apparent contradiction to the standard cosmological model, wherein the Galaxy is surrounded by a dispersion-supported dark matter halo. Here, we show that the reported exceptional anisotropy of the satellite system is strongly contingent on a lopsided radial distribution, which earlier simulations have failed to reproduce, combined with the close but fleeting conjunction of the two most distant satellites, Leo I and Leo II. Using Gaia proper motions, we show that the orbital pole alignment is much more common than previously reported, and reveal the plane of satellites to be transient rather than rotationally supported. Comparing to new simulations, where such short-lived planes are common, we find the Milky Way satellites to be compatible with standard model expectations.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

SIBELIUS-DARK: a galaxy catalogue of the Local Volume from a constrained realisation simulation

We present SIBELIUS-DARK, a constrained realisation simulation of the local volume to a distance of 200~Mpc from the Milky Way. SIBELIUS-DARK is the first study of the \textit{Simulations Beyond The Local Universe} (SIBELIUS) project, which has the goal of embedding a model Local Group-like system within the correct cosmic environment. The simulation is dark-matter-only, with the galaxy population calculated using the semi-analytic model of galaxy formation, GALFORM. We demonstrate that the large-scale structure that emerges from the SIBELIUS constrained initial conditions matches well the observational data. The inferred galaxy population of SIBELIUS-DARK also match well the observational data, both statistically for the whole volume and on an object-by-object basis for the most massive clusters. For example, the $K$-band number counts across the whole sky, and when divided between the northern and southern Galactic hemispheres, are well reproduced by SIBELIUS-DARK. We find that the local volume is somewhat unusual in the wider context of $Λ$CDM: it contains an abnormally high number of supermassive clusters, as well as an overall large-scale underdensity at the level of $\approx 5$\% relative to the cosmic mean. However, whilst rare, the extent of these peculiarities does not significantly challenge the $Λ$CDM model. SIBELIUS-DARK is the most comprehensive constrained realisation simulation of the local volume to date, and with this paper we publicly release the halo and galaxy catalogues at $z=0$, which we hope will be useful to the wider astronomy community.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

The SIBELIUS Project: E Pluribus Unum

We introduce "Simulations Beyond The Local Universe" (SIBELIUS) that connect the Local Group to its cosmic environment. We show that introducing hierarchical small-scale perturbations to a density field constrained on large scales by observations provides an efficient way to explore the sample space of Local Group analogues. From more than 60 000 simulations, we identify a hierarchy of Local Group characteristics emanating from different scales: the total mass, orientation, orbital energy and the angular momentum are largely determined by modes above $λ$ = 1.6 comoving Mpc (cMpc) in the primordial density field. Smaller scale variations are mostly manifest as perturbations to the MW-M31 orbit, and we find that the observables commonly used to describe the Local Group -- the MW-M31 separation and radial velocity -- are transient and depend on specifying scales down to 0.2 cMpc in the primordial density field. We further find that the presence of M33/LMC analogues significantly affects the MW-M31 orbit and its sensitivity to small-scale perturbations. We construct initial conditions that lead to the formation of a Local Group whose primary observables precisely match the current observations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2020

The APOSTLE project: Local Group kinematic mass constraints and simulation candidate selection

We use a large sample of isolated dark matter halo pairs drawn from cosmological N-body simulations to identify candidate systems whose kinematics match that of the Local Group of Galaxies (LG). We find, in agreement with the "timing argument" and earlier work, that the separation and approach velocity of the Milky Way (MW) and Andromeda (M31) galaxies favour a total mass for the pair of $\sim 5\times 10^{12} \,M_{\odot}$. A mass this large, however, is difficult to reconcile with the small relative tangential velocity of the pair, as well as with the small deceleration from the Hubble flow observed for the most distant LG members. Halo pairs that match these three criteria have average masses a factor of $\sim 2$ times smaller than suggested by the timing argument, but with large dispersion. Guided by these results, we have selected $12$ halo pairs with total mass in the range $1.6$-$3.6 \times 10^{12}\,M_{\odot}$ for the APOSTLE project (A Project Of Simulating The Local Environment), a suite of hydrodynamical resimulations at various numerical resolution levels (reaching up to $\sim10^{4}\,M_{\odot}$ per gas particle) that use the subgrid physics developed for the EAGLE project. These simulations reproduce, by construction, the main kinematics of the MW-M31 pair, and produce satellite populations whose overall number, luminosities, and kinematics are in good agreement with observations of the MW and M31 companions. The APOSTLE candidate systems thus provide an excellent testbed to confront directly many of the predictions of the $Λ$CDM cosmology with observations of our local Universe.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Setting the Stage: Structures from Gaussian Random Fields

We study structure formation in a set of cosmological simulations to uncover the scales in the initial density field that gave rise to the formation of present-day structures. Our simulations share a common primordial power spectrum (here Lambda-CDM), but the introduction of hierarchical variations of the phase information allows us to systematically study the scales that determine the formation of structure at later times. We consider the variance in z=0 statistics such as the matter power spectrum and halo mass function. We also define a criterion for the existence of individual haloes across simulations, and determine what scales in the initial density field contain sufficient information for the non-linear formation of unique haloes. We study how the characteristics of individual haloes such as the mass and concentration, as well as the position and velocity, are affected by variations on different scales, and give scaling relations for haloes of different mass. Finally, we use the example of a cluster-mass halo to show how our hierarchical parametrisation of the initial density field can be used to create variants of particular objects. With properties such as mass, concentration, kinematics and substructure of haloes set on distinct and well-determined scales, and its unique ability to introduce variations localised in real space, our method is a powerful tool to study structure formation in cosmological simulations.

astro-ph.CO↗