arXiv subjects

Tilman Tröster

Publications and source records attributed to Tilman Tröster.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Non-Gaussian Weak-Lensing Likelihood: A Multivariate Copula Construction and Impact on Cosmological Constraints

We present a framework to compute non-Gaussian likelihoods for two-point correlation functions. The non-Gaussianity is most pronounced on large scales that will be well-measured by stage-IV weak-lensing surveys. We show how such a multivariate likelihood can be constructed and efficiently evaluated using a copula approach by incorporating exact one-dimensional marginals and a dependence structure derived from the exact multivariate likelihood. The copula likelihood is found to be in better agreement with simulated sampling distributions of correlation functions than Gaussian likelihoods, particularly on large scales. We furthermore investigate the effect of the non-Gaussian copula likelihood on posterior inference, including sampling the full parameter space of contemporary weak-lensing analyses. We find potential parameter shifts in $S_8$ on the order of one standard deviation for $1 \ 000 \ \mathrm{deg}^2$ surveys but negligible shifts for areas of $10 \ 000 \ \mathrm{deg}^2$, suggesting Gaussian likelihoods are sufficient for stage-IV surveys, though results depend on the detailed mask geometry and data-vector structure.

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arXiv2026

Velocityformer: Broken-Symmetry-Matched Equivariant Graph Transformers for Cosmological Velocity Reconstruction

Precise measurement of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect - a probe of the large-scale distribution of baryonic matter, a key observable for cosmological inference - requires accurate reconstruction of galaxy velocities from spectroscopic surveys. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of kSZ measurements scales directly with the correlation coefficient $r$ between reconstructed and true velocities. We introduce Velocityformer, an equivariant graph transformer architecture designed to match the specific symmetry of the observational data. While the underlying physics is equivariant with respect to translations and rotations, observational effects break this symmetry due to the preferred line-of-sight direction. Matching the model's inductive bias to the data's broken symmetry consistently improves performance across all model sizes and training volumes, with Velocityformer improving $r$ by 35% over the standard linear theory baseline and outperforming ML baselines at every data volume. By matching the model's inductive bias to the data and conditioning on the physics-based long-wavelength solution, Velocityformer is highly data-efficient, training to high accuracy on as few as 4 low-fidelity simulations, and generalises zero-shot across input geometry, cosmological parameters, and galaxy sample. On high-fidelity simulated galaxy catalogues, this yields a 30% improvement in $r$ over the physical baseline, directly translating to the same SNR gain on observational data.

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arXiv2026

KiDS-Legacy: Constraining dark energy, neutrino mass, and curvature

We constrained minimally extended cosmological models with the cosmic shear analysis of the final data release from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-Legacy) in combination with external probes. Due to the consistency of the KiDS-Legacy analysis with the cosmic microwave background (CMB), we could combine these datasets reliably for the first time. Additionally, we used CMB lensing, galaxy redshift-space distortions, and baryon acoustic oscillations. We assessed, in turn, the effects of spatial curvature, varying neutrino masses, and an evolving dark energy component on cosmological constraints from KiDS-Legacy alone and from KiDS-Legacy combined with external probes. We find KiDS-Legacy to be consistent with the fiducial flat $Λ$-cold dark matter ($Λ$CDM) analysis with $c^2 \sum m_ν\leq 1.5\,$eV, $w_0 = -1.0\pm 0.7$, and $w_a = -1.3^{+1.9}_{-2.0}$ while $Ω_K = 0.08^{+0.16}_{-0.17}$ (1$σ$ bounds) with an almost equal goodness of fit. The $w_0w_a$CDM model is not a significant improvement over $Λ$CDM when cosmic shear and CMB lensing are combined, yielding a Bayes factor $B = 0.07$. If all probes are combined, however, $B$ increases to 2.73, corresponding to a $2.6σ$ suspiciousness tension. The constraint on $S_8 = σ_8\sqrt{Ω_\mathrm{m}/0.3}$ is robust to opening up the parameter space for cosmic shear. Adding all external datasets to KiDS-Legacy, we find $S_8 = 0.816 \pm 0.006$ in $Λ$CDM and $S_8 = 0.837 \pm 0.008$ in $w_0 w_a$CDM for all probes combined.

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arXiv2026

Smokescreen: A Python package for data vector blinding and encryption in cosmological analyses

Smokescreen is an open-source Python library for data-vector concealment (blinding) in cosmological analyses. Data-vector blinding works by applying cosmology-dependent shifts to the observed data vector, moving it away from the true cosmological signal without affecting its statistical properties, so that analysts cannot infer the true result until the analysis is frozen and the blinding is lifted. The package computes these shifts using Firecrown likelihoods applied to data vectors stored in the SACC format, ensuring that the theoretical model used for blinding is identical to that used for inference whilst remaining agnostic to the specific observable being blinded. To prevent accidental unblinding, the original SACC file, containing the true cosmology, is encrypted. Although developed for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Smokescreen is applicable to any experiment using Firecrown likelihoods and the SACC data format.

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arXiv2026

KiDS-Legacy: Constraints on Horndeski gravity from weak lensing combined with galaxy clustering and cosmic microwave background anisotropies

We present constraints on modified gravity from a cosmic shear analysis of the final data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-Legacy) in combination with DESI measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations, eBOSS observations of redshift space distortions, and cosmic microwave background anisotropies from Planck. We study the Horndeski class of modified gravity models in an effective field theory framework employing a parameterisation that satisfies stability conditions by construction and, for the first time, present a cosmological analysis in this inherently stable parameter basis. Cosmic shear constrains the Horndeski parameter space significantly, matching or surpassing the CMB contribution. Adopting the de-mixed kinetic term of the scalar field perturbation, $D_{\rm kin}$, and the deviation of the Planck mass from its fiducial value, $ΔM_*^2\equiv M_*^2-1$, as model parameters, we constrain their present values to be $Δ\hat{M}_*^2=0.32^{+0.07}_{-0.21}$ and $\hat{D}_{\rm kin} = 3.74^{+0.69}_{-1.92}$, which deviate from general relativity at $1.5σ$ and $1.9σ$, respectively. We derive constraints on the structure growth parameter $S_8=0.813^{+0.008}_{-0.011}$, which is compatible with the $Λ$CDM constraint at $0.54σ$. We obtain the deviation of the effective Newtonian coupling from the GR value as $Δμ_{\infty,{\rm eff}}=0.066\pm0.023$, corresponding to a $2.9σ$ significance. Although modified gravity provides a slightly better fit to the data, a model comparison shows only a weak preference for modified gravity at the $1.4σ$ level. When adopting a dynamical dark energy model of the background cosmology, the inferred modified gravity parameter constraints are stable with respect to a $Λ$CDM background, while a mild preference at $1.57σ$ for dynamical dark energy remains.

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arXiv2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

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arXiv2026

KiDS-Legacy: WIMP dark matter constraints from the cross-correlation of weak lensing and Fermi-LAT gamma rays

Dark matter dominates the matter content of the Universe, and its properties can be constrained through large-scale structure probes such as the cross-correlation between the unresolved gamma-ray background (UGRB) and weak gravitational lensing. We analysed 15 years of Fermi-LAT data, constructing UGRB intensity maps in ten energy bins (0.5-1000 GeV), and cross-correlated them with KiDS-Legacy shear in six tomographic bins. The measurements were performed using angular power spectra estimated with the pseudo-$C_\ell$ method. No significant cross-correlation is found. Based on this non-detection, we present 95% upper bounds on the weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) decay rate $Γ_{\rm dec}$ and velocity-averaged annihilation cross-section $\langleσ_{\rm ann} v\rangle$ as functions of mass. We compare our results with bounds from other cosmological tracers and from local probes, and found them to be complementary, particularly at low masses ($\rm GeV/TeV$). In addition, using a Euclid-like lensing survey cross-correlated with Fermi-LAT, we forecast $\sim$2 times tighter limits, highlighting the potential of forthcoming data to strengthen constraints on dark matter annihilation and decay.

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arXiv2025

Baryonification: An alternative to hydrodynamical simulations for cosmological studies

We present an improved baryonification (BFC) model that modifies dark-matter-only $N$-body simulations to generate particle-level outputs for gas, dark matter, and stars. Unlike previous implementations, our approach first splits each simulation particle into separate dark matter and baryonic components, which are then displaced individually using the BFC technique. By applying the hydrostatic and ideal gas equations, we assign pressure and temperature values to individual gas particles. The model is validated against hydrodynamical simulations from the FLAMINGO and TNG suites (which feature varied feedback prescriptions) showing good agreement at the level of density and pressure profiles across a wide range of halo masses. As a further step, we calibrate the BFC model parameters to gas and stellar mass ratio profiles from the hydrodynamical simulations. Based on these calibrations, we baryonify $N$-body simulations and compare the resulting total matter power spectrum suppressions to the ones from the same hydrodynamical simulation. Carrying out this test of the BFC method at each redshift individually, we obtain a 2 percent agreement up to $k=5\,h$/Mpc across all tested feedback scenarios. We also define a reduced, 2+1 parameter BFC model that simultaneously accounts for feedback variations (2 parameters) and redshift evolution (1 parameter). The 2+1 parameter model agrees with the hydrodynamical simulations to better than 2.5 percent over the scales and redshifts relevant for cosmological surveys. Finally, we present a map-level comparison between a baryonified $N$-body simulation and a full hydrodynamical run from the TNG simulation suite. Visual inspection of dark matter, gas, and stellar density fields, along with the integrated pressure map, shows promising agreement. Further work is needed to quantify the accuracy at the level of observables.

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arXiv2025

Hybrid Physical-Neural Simulator for Fast Cosmological Hydrodynamics

Cosmological field-level inference requires differentiable forward models that solve the challenging dynamics of gas and dark matter under hydrodynamics and gravity. We propose a hybrid approach where gravitational forces are computed using a differentiable particle-mesh solver, while the hydrodynamics are parametrized by a neural network that maps local quantities to an effective pressure field. We demonstrate that our method improves upon alternative approaches, such as an Enthalpy Gradient Descent baseline, both at the field and summary-statistic level. The approach is furthermore highly data efficient, with a single reference simulation of cosmological structure formation being sufficient to constrain the neural pressure model. This opens the door for future applications where the model is fit directly to observational data, rather than a training set of simulations.

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arXiv2025

KiDS-Legacy: Cosmological constraints from cosmic shear with the complete Kilo-Degree Survey

We present cosmic shear constraints from the completed Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), where the cosmological parameter $S_8\equivσ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.815^{+0.016}_{-0.021}$, is found to be in agreement ($0.73σ$) with results from the Planck Legacy cosmic microwave background experiment. The final KiDS footprint spans $1347$ square degrees of deep nine-band imaging across the optical and near-infrared, along with an extra $23$ square degrees of KiDS-like calibration observations of deep spectroscopic surveys. Improvements in our redshift distribution estimation methodology, combined with our enhanced calibration data and multi-band image simulations, allow us to extend our lensed sample out to a photometric redshift of $z_{\rm B}\leq2.0$. Compared to previous KiDS analyses, the increased survey area and redshift depth results in a $\sim32\%$ improvement in constraining power in terms of $Σ_8\equivσ_8\left(Ω_{\rm m}/0.3\right)^α= 0.821^{+0.014}_{-0.016}$, where $α= 0.58$ has been optimised to match the revised degeneracy direction of $σ_8$ and $Ω_{\rm m}$. We adopt a new physically motivated intrinsic alignment model that depends jointly on the galaxy sample's halo mass and spectral type distributions, and that is informed by previous direct alignment measurements. We also marginalise over our uncertainty on the impact of baryon feedback on the non-linear matter power spectrum. Comparing to previous KiDS analyses, we conclude that the increase seen in $S_8$ primarily results from our improved redshift distribution estimation and calibration, as well as new survey area and improved image reduction. Our companion paper Stölzner et al. (submitted) presents a full suite of internal and external consistency tests, finding the KiDS-Legacy data set to be the most internally robust sample produced by KiDS to date.

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arXiv2025

KiDS-Legacy: Redshift distributions and their calibration

We present the redshift calibration methodology and bias estimates for the cosmic shear analysis of the fifth and final data release (DR5) of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS). KiDS-DR5 includes a greatly expanded compilation of calibrating spectra, drawn from $27$ square degrees of dedicated optical and near-IR imaging taken over deep spectroscopic fields. The redshift distribution calibration leverages a range of new methods and updated simulations to produce the most precise $N(z)$ bias estimates used by KiDS to date. Improvements to our colour-based redshift distribution measurement method (SOM) mean that we are able to use many more sources per tomographic bin for our cosmological analyses, and better estimate the representation of our source sample given the available spec-$z$. We validate our colour-based redshift distribution estimates with spectroscopic cross-correlations (CC). We find that improvements to our cross-correlation redshift distribution measurement methods mean that redshift distribution biases estimated between the SOM and CC methods are fully consistent on simulations, and the data calibration is consistent to better than $2σ$ in all tomographic bins.

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arXiv2025

KiDS-Legacy: Consistency of cosmic shear measurements and joint cosmological constraints with external probes

We present a cosmic shear consistency analysis of the final data release from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-Legacy). By adopting three tiers of consistency metrics, we compare cosmological constraints between subsets of the KiDS-Legacy dataset split by redshift, angular scale, galaxy colour and spatial region. We also review a range of two-point cosmic shear statistics. With the data passing all our consistency metric tests, we demonstrate that KiDS-Legacy is the most internally consistent KiDS catalogue to date. In a joint cosmological analysis of KiDS-Legacy and DES Y3 cosmic shear, combined with data from the Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae compilation and baryon acoustic oscillations from DESI Y1, we find constraints consistent with Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background with $S_8\equiv σ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.814^{+0.011}_{-0.012}$ and $σ_8 = 0.802^{+0.022}_{-0.018}$.

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arXiv2025

KiDS-Legacy: Covariance validation and the unified OneCovariance framework for projected large-scale structure observables

We introduce OneCovariance, an open-source software designed to accurately compute covariance matrices for an arbitrary set of two-point summary statistics across a variety of large-scale structure tracers. Utilising the halo model, we estimated the statistical properties of matter and biased tracer fields, incorporating all Gaussian, non-Gaussian, and super-sample covariance terms. The flexible configuration permits user-specific parameters, such as the complexity of survey geometry, the halo occupation distribution employed to define each galaxy sample, or the form of the real-space and/or Fourier space statistics to be analysed. We illustrate the capabilities of OneCovariance within the context of a cosmic shear analysis of the final data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-Legacy). Upon comparing our estimated covariance with measurements from mock data and calculations from independent software, we ascertain that OneCovariance achieves accuracy at the per cent level. When assessing the impact of ignoring complex survey geometry in the cosmic shear covariance computation, we discover misestimations at approximately the $10\%$ level for cosmic variance terms. Nonetheless, these discrepancies do not significantly affect the KiDS-Legacy recovery of cosmological parameters. We derive the cross-covariance between real-space correlation functions, bandpowers, and COSEBIs, facilitating future consistency tests among these three cosmic shear statistics. Additionally, we calculate the covariance matrix of photometric-spectroscopic galaxy clustering measurements, validating the jackknife covariance estimates for calibrating KiDS-Legacy redshift distributions. The OneCovariance can be found on GitHub, together with comprehensive documentation and examples.

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arXiv2025

The exact non-Gaussian weak lensing likelihood: A framework to calculate analytic likelihoods for correlation functions on masked Gaussian random fields

We present exact non-Gaussian joint likelihoods for auto- and cross-correlation functions on arbitrarily masked spherical Gaussian random fields. Our considerations apply to spin-0 as well as spin-2 fields but are demonstrated here for the spin-2 weak-lensing correlation function. We motivate that this likelihood cannot be Gaussian and show how it can nevertheless be calculated exactly for any mask geometry and on a curved sky, as well as jointly for different angular-separation bins and redshift-bin combinations. Splitting our calculation into a large- and small-scale part, we apply a computationally efficient approximation for the small scales that does not alter the overall non-Gaussian likelihood shape. To compare our exact likelihoods to correlation-function sampling distributions, we simulated a large number of weak-lensing maps, including shape noise, and find excellent agreement for one-dimensional as well as two-dimensional distributions. Furthermore, we compare the exact likelihood to the widely employed Gaussian likelihood and find significant levels of skewness at angular separations $\gtrsim 1^{\circ}$, such that the mode of the exact distributions is shifted away from the mean towards lower values of the correlation function. We find that the assumption of a Gaussian random field for the weak-lensing field is well valid at these angular separations. Considering the skewness of the non-Gaussian likelihood, we evaluate its impact on the posterior constraints on $S_8$. On a simplified weak-lensing-survey setup with an area of $10 \ 000 \ \mathrm{deg}^2$, we find that the posterior mean of $S_8$ is around $2.5\%$ higher when using the non-Gaussian likelihood, a shift comparable to the precision of current stage-III surveys.

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arXiv2025

The fifth data release of the Kilo Degree Survey: Multi-epoch optical/NIR imaging covering wide and legacy-calibration fields

We present the final data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-DR5), a public European Southern Observatory (ESO) wide-field imaging survey optimised for weak gravitational lensing studies. We combined matched-depth multi-wavelength observations from the VLT Survey Telescope and the VISTA Kilo-degree INfrared Galaxy (VIKING) survey to create a nine-band optical-to-near-infrared survey spanning $1347$ deg$^2$. The median $r$-band $5σ$ limiting magnitude is 24.8 with median seeing $0.7^{\prime\prime}$. The main survey footprint includes $4$ deg$^2$ of overlap with existing deep spectroscopic surveys. We complemented these data in DR5 with a targeted campaign to secure an additional $23$ deg$^2$ of KiDS- and VIKING-like imaging over a range of additional deep spectroscopic survey fields. From these fields, we extracted a catalogue of $126\,085$ sources with both spectroscopic and photometric redshift information, which enables the robust calibration of photometric redshifts across the full survey footprint. In comparison to previous releases, DR5 represents a $34\%$ areal extension and includes an $i$-band re-observation of the full footprint, thereby increasing the effective $i$-band depth by $0.4$ magnitudes and enabling multi-epoch science. Our processed nine-band imaging, single- and multi-band catalogues with masks, and homogenised photometry and photometric redshifts can be accessed through the ESO Archive Science Portal.

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arXiv2024

6x2pt: Forecasting gains from joint weak lensing and galaxy clustering analyses with spectroscopic-photometric galaxy cross-correlations

We explore the enhanced self-calibration of photometric galaxy redshift distributions, $n(z)$, through the combination of up to six two-point functions. Our $\rm 3\times2pt$ configuration is comprised of photometric shear, spectroscopic galaxy clustering, and spectroscopic-photometric galaxy-galaxy lensing (GGL). We further include spectroscopic-photometric cross-clustering; photometric GGL; and photometric auto-clustering, using the photometric shear sample as density tracer. We perform simulated likelihood forecasts of the cosmological and nuisance parameter constraints for Stage-III- and Stage-IV-like surveys. For the Stage-III-like case, we employ realistic but perturbed redshift distributions, and distinguish between "coherent" shifting in one direction, versus more internal scattering and full-shape errors. For perfectly known $n(z)$, a $\rm 6\times2pt$ analysis gains $\sim40\%$ in Figure of Merit (FoM) in the $S_8\equivσ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3}$ and $Ω_{\rm m}$ plane relative to the $\rm 3\times2pt$ analysis. If untreated, coherent and incoherent redshift errors lead to inaccurate inferences of $S_8$ and $Ω_{\rm m}$, respectively. Employing bin-wise scalar shifts $δ{z}_i$ in the tomographic mean redshifts reduces cosmological parameter biases, with a $\rm 6x2pt$ analysis constraining the shift parameters with $2-4$ times the precision of a photometric $\rm 3^{ph}\times2pt$ analysis. For the Stage-IV-like survey, a $\rm 6\times2pt$ analysis doubles the FoM($σ_8{-}Ω_{\rm m}$) compared to any $\rm 3\times2pt$ or $\rm 3^{ph}\times2pt$ analysis, and is only $8\%$ less constraining than if the $n(z)$ were perfectly known. A Gaussian mixture model for the $n(z)$ reduces mean-redshift errors and preserves the $n(z)$ shape. It also yields the most accurate and precise cosmological constraints for any $N\rm\times2pt$ configuration given $n(z)$ biases.

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arXiv2024

Comparing Mass Mapping Reconstruction Methods with Minkowski Functionals

Using higher-order statistics to capture cosmological information from weak lensing surveys often requires a transformation of observed shear to a measurement of the convergence signal. This inverse problem is complicated by noise and boundary effects, and various reconstruction methods have been developed to implement the process. Here we evaluate the retention of signal information of four such methods: Kaiser-Squires, Wiener filter, $\texttt{DarkMappy}$, and $\texttt{DeepMass}$. We use the higher order statistics $\textit{Minkowski functionals}$ to determine which method best reconstructs the original convergence with efficiency and precision. We find $\texttt{DeepMass}$ produces the tightest constraints on cosmological parameters, while Kaiser-Squires, Wiener filter, and $\texttt{DarkMappy}$ are similar at a smoothing scale of 3.5 arcmin. We also study the MF inaccuracy caused by inappropriate training sets in the $\texttt{DeepMass}$ method and find it to be large compared to the errors, underlining the importance of selecting appropriate training cosmologies.

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arXiv2023

On constraining Cosmology and the Halo Mass Function with Weak Gravitational Lensing

The discrepancy between the weak lensing (WL) and the {\it Planck} measurements of $S_8$ has been a subject of several studies. These studies tend to show that a suppression of the amplitude of the mass power spectrum $P(k)$ at high $k$ could resolve it. The WL signal at small-scale is sensitive to various effects, such as baryonic effects and intrinsic alignment. The accuracy of $P(k)$ depends on the modelling precision of these effects. A common approach for calculating $P(k)$ relies on a halo model. Amongst the various components necessary for the construction of $P(k)$, the halo mass function (HMF) is an important one. Traditionally, the HMF has been assumed to follow a fixed model. Recent literature shows that baryonic physics, amongst several other factors, could affect the HMF. In this study, we investigate the impact of allowing the HMF to vary. This provides a way of testing the validity of the halo model-HMF calibration using data. We find that the {\it Planck} cosmology is not compatible with the vanilla HMF for both the DES-y3 and the KiDS-1000 data. When the cosmology and the HMF parameters are allowed to vary, the {\it Planck} cosmology is no longer in tension. The modified HMF predicts a matter power spectrum with a $\sim 25\%$ power loss at $k\sim 1~{\rm h/Mpc}$, in agreement with the recent studies. We show that Stage IV surveys will be able to measure the HMF parameters with a few percent accuracy.

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