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Tim G. J. Rudner

Publications and source records attributed to Tim G. J. Rudner.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2025

Insertion Language Models: Sequence Generation with Arbitrary-Position Insertions

Autoregressive models (ARMs), which predict subsequent tokens one-by-one ``from left to right,'' have achieved significant success across a wide range of sequence generation tasks. However, they struggle to accurately represent sequences that require satisfying sophisticated constraints or whose sequential dependencies are better addressed by out-of-order generation. Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) address some of these limitations, but the process of unmasking multiple tokens simultaneously in MDMs can introduce incoherences, and MDMs cannot handle arbitrary infilling constraints when the number of tokens to be filled in is not known in advance. In this work, we introduce Insertion Language Models (ILMs), which learn to insert tokens at arbitrary positions in a sequence -- that is, they select jointly both the position and the vocabulary element to be inserted. By inserting tokens one at a time, ILMs can represent strong dependencies between tokens, and their ability to generate sequences in arbitrary order allows them to accurately model sequences where token dependencies do not follow a left-to-right sequential structure. To train ILMs, we propose a tailored network parameterization and use a simple denoising objective. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that ILMs outperform both ARMs and MDMs on common planning tasks. Furthermore, we show that ILMs outperform MDMs and perform on par with ARMs in an unconditional text generation task while offering greater flexibility than MDMs in arbitrary-length text infilling. The code is available at: https://dhruveshp.com/projects/ilm .

cs.CL↗
arXiv2025

Can Transformers Learn Full Bayesian Inference in Context?

Transformers have emerged as the dominant architecture in the field of deep learning, with a broad range of applications and remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities. While not yet fully understood, ICL has already proved to be an intriguing phenomenon, allowing transformers to learn in context -- without requiring further training. In this paper, we further advance the understanding of ICL by demonstrating that transformers can perform full Bayesian inference for commonly used statistical models in context. More specifically, we introduce a general framework that builds on ideas from prior fitted networks and continuous normalizing flows and enables us to infer complex posterior distributions for models such as generalized linear models and latent factor models. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our ICL approach yields posterior samples that are similar in quality to state-of-the-art MCMC or variational inference methods that do not operate in context. The source code for this paper is available at https://github.com/ArikReuter/ICL_for_Full_Bayesian_Inference.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Out-of-Distribution Detection Methods Answer the Wrong Questions

To detect distribution shifts and improve model safety, many out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods rely on the predictive uncertainty or features of supervised models trained on in-distribution data. In this paper, we critically re-examine this popular family of OOD detection procedures, and we argue that these methods are fundamentally answering the wrong questions for OOD detection. There is no simple fix to this misalignment, since a classifier trained only on in-distribution classes cannot be expected to identify OOD points; for instance, a cat-dog classifier may confidently misclassify an airplane if it contains features that distinguish cats from dogs, despite generally appearing nothing alike. We find that uncertainty-based methods incorrectly conflate high uncertainty with being OOD, while feature-based methods incorrectly conflate far feature-space distance with being OOD. We show how these pathologies manifest as irreducible errors in OOD detection and identify common settings where these methods are ineffective. Additionally, interventions to improve OOD detection such as feature-logit hybrid methods, scaling of model and data size, epistemic uncertainty representation, and outlier exposure also fail to address this fundamental misalignment in objectives. We additionally consider unsupervised density estimation and generative models for OOD detection, which we show have their own fundamental limitations.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Geometry-Aware Generative Autoencoders for Warped Riemannian Metric Learning and Generative Modeling on Data Manifolds

Rapid growth of high-dimensional datasets in fields such as single-cell RNA sequencing and spatial genomics has led to unprecedented opportunities for scientific discovery, but it also presents unique computational and statistical challenges. Traditional methods struggle with geometry-aware data generation, interpolation along meaningful trajectories, and transporting populations via feasible paths. To address these issues, we introduce Geometry-Aware Generative Autoencoder (GAGA), a novel framework that combines extensible manifold learning with generative modeling. GAGA constructs a neural network embedding space that respects the intrinsic geometries discovered by manifold learning and learns a novel warped Riemannian metric on the data space. This warped metric is derived from both the points on the data manifold and negative samples off the manifold, allowing it to characterize a meaningful geometry across the entire latent space. Using this metric, GAGA can uniformly sample points on the manifold, generate points along geodesics, and interpolate between populations across the learned manifold using geodesic-guided flows. GAGA shows competitive performance in simulated and real-world datasets, including a 30% improvement over the state-of-the-art methods in single-cell population-level trajectory inference.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Improving Pre-trained Self-Supervised Embeddings Through Effective Entropy Maximization

A number of different architectures and loss functions have been applied to the problem of self-supervised learning (SSL), with the goal of developing embeddings that provide the best possible pre-training for as-yet-unknown, lightly supervised downstream tasks. One of these SSL criteria is to maximize the entropy of a set of embeddings in some compact space. But the goal of maximizing the embedding entropy often depends -- whether explicitly or implicitly -- upon high dimensional entropy estimates, which typically perform poorly in more than a few dimensions. In this paper, we motivate an effective entropy maximization criterion (E2MC), defined in terms of easy-to-estimate, low-dimensional constraints. We demonstrate that using it to continue training an already-trained SSL model for only a handful of epochs leads to a consistent and, in some cases, significant improvement in downstream performance. We perform careful ablation studies to show that the improved performance is due to the proposed add-on criterion. We also show that continued pre-training with alternative criteria does not lead to notable improvements, and in some cases, even degrades performance.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

On Sequential Bayesian Inference for Continual Learning

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Exploring the Manifold of Neural Networks Using Diffusion Geometry

Drawing motivation from the manifold hypothesis, which posits that most high-dimensional data lies on or near low-dimensional manifolds, we apply manifold learning to the space of neural networks. We learn manifolds where datapoints are neural networks by introducing a distance between the hidden layer representations of the neural networks. These distances are then fed to the non-linear dimensionality reduction algorithm PHATE to create a manifold of neural networks. We characterize this manifold using features of the representation, including class separation, hierarchical cluster structure, spectral entropy, and topological structure. Our analysis reveals that high-performing networks cluster together in the manifold, displaying consistent embedding patterns across all these features. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of this approach for guiding hyperparameter optimization and neural architecture search by sampling from the manifold.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

A Monte Carlo Framework for Calibrated Uncertainty Estimation in Sequence Prediction

Probabilistic prediction of sequences from images and other high-dimensional data is a key challenge, particularly in risk-sensitive applications. In these settings, it is often desirable to quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction (instead of just determining the most likely sequence, as in language modeling). In this paper, we propose a Monte Carlo framework to estimate probabilities and confidence intervals associated with the distribution of a discrete sequence. Our framework uses a Monte Carlo simulator, implemented as an autoregressively trained neural network, to sample sequences conditioned on an image input. We then use these samples to estimate the probabilities and confidence intervals. Experiments on synthetic and real data show that the framework produces accurate discriminative predictions, but can suffer from miscalibration. In order to address this shortcoming, we propose a time-dependent regularization method, which is shown to produce calibrated predictions.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Position: Bayesian Deep Learning is Needed in the Age of Large-Scale AI

In the current landscape of deep learning research, there is a predominant emphasis on achieving high predictive accuracy in supervised tasks involving large image and language datasets. However, a broader perspective reveals a multitude of overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types, such as uncertainty, active and continual learning, and scientific data, that demand attention. Bayesian deep learning (BDL) constitutes a promising avenue, offering advantages across these diverse settings. This paper posits that BDL can elevate the capabilities of deep learning. It revisits the strengths of BDL, acknowledges existing challenges, and highlights some exciting research avenues aimed at addressing these obstacles. Looking ahead, the discussion focuses on possible ways to combine large-scale foundation models with BDL to unlock their full potential.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Non-Vacuous Generalization Bounds for Large Language Models

Modern language models can contain billions of parameters, raising the question of whether they can generalize beyond the training data or simply parrot their training corpora. We provide the first non-vacuous generalization bounds for pretrained large language models (LLMs), indicating that language models are capable of discovering regularities that generalize to unseen data. In particular, we derive a compression bound that is valid for the unbounded log-likelihood loss using prediction smoothing, and we extend the bound to handle subsampling, accelerating bound computation by orders of magnitude on massive datasets. To achieve the extreme level of compression required for non-vacuous bounds, we devise SubLoRA, a simple low-dimensional nonlinear parameterization that leads to non-vacuous generalization bounds for models with nearly a billion parameters. Finally, we use our bounds to understand LLM generalization and find that larger models have better generalization bounds and are more compressible than smaller models.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2024

Context-Guided Diffusion for Out-of-Distribution Molecular and Protein Design

Generative models have the potential to accelerate key steps in the discovery of novel molecular therapeutics and materials. Diffusion models have recently emerged as a powerful approach, excelling at unconditional sample generation and, with data-driven guidance, conditional generation within their training domain. Reliably sampling from high-value regions beyond the training data, however, remains an open challenge -- with current methods predominantly focusing on modifying the diffusion process itself. In this paper, we develop context-guided diffusion (CGD), a simple plug-and-play method that leverages unlabeled data and smoothness constraints to improve the out-of-distribution generalization of guided diffusion models. We demonstrate that this approach leads to substantial performance gains across various settings, including continuous, discrete, and graph-structured diffusion processes with applications across drug discovery, materials science, and protein design.

q-bio.BM↗
arXiv2024

Visual Explanations of Image-Text Representations via Multi-Modal Information Bottleneck Attribution

Vision-language pretrained models have seen remarkable success, but their application to safety-critical settings is limited by their lack of interpretability. To improve the interpretability of vision-language models such as CLIP, we propose a multi-modal information bottleneck (M2IB) approach that learns latent representations that compress irrelevant information while preserving relevant visual and textual features. We demonstrate how M2IB can be applied to attribution analysis of vision-language pretrained models, increasing attribution accuracy and improving the interpretability of such models when applied to safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Crucially, unlike commonly used unimodal attribution methods, M2IB does not require ground truth labels, making it possible to audit representations of vision-language pretrained models when multiple modalities but no ground-truth data is available. Using CLIP as an example, we demonstrate the effectiveness of M2IB attribution and show that it outperforms gradient-based, perturbation-based, and attention-based attribution methods both qualitatively and quantitatively.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2024

Pre-trained Text-to-Image Diffusion Models Are Versatile Representation Learners for Control

Embodied AI agents require a fine-grained understanding of the physical world mediated through visual and language inputs. Such capabilities are difficult to learn solely from task-specific data. This has led to the emergence of pre-trained vision-language models as a tool for transferring representations learned from internet-scale data to downstream tasks and new domains. However, commonly used contrastively trained representations such as in CLIP have been shown to fail at enabling embodied agents to gain a sufficiently fine-grained scene understanding -- a capability vital for control. To address this shortcoming, we consider representations from pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models, which are explicitly optimized to generate images from text prompts and as such, contain text-conditioned representations that reflect highly fine-grained visuo-spatial information. Using pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models, we construct Stable Control Representations which allow learning downstream control policies that generalize to complex, open-ended environments. We show that policies learned using Stable Control Representations are competitive with state-of-the-art representation learning approaches across a broad range of simulated control settings, encompassing challenging manipulation and navigation tasks. Most notably, we show that Stable Control Representations enable learning policies that exhibit state-of-the-art performance on OVMM, a difficult open-vocabulary navigation benchmark.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2024

A Study of Bayesian Neural Network Surrogates for Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization is a highly efficient approach to optimizing objective functions which are expensive to query. These objectives are typically represented by Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models which are easy to optimize and support exact inference. While standard GP surrogates have been well-established in Bayesian optimization, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently become practical function approximators, with many benefits over standard GPs such as the ability to naturally handle non-stationarity and learn representations for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we study BNNs as alternatives to standard GP surrogates for optimization. We consider a variety of approximate inference procedures for finite-width BNNs, including high-quality Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, low-cost stochastic MCMC, and heuristics such as deep ensembles. We also consider infinite-width BNNs, linearized Laplace approximations, and partially stochastic models such as deep kernel learning. We evaluate this collection of surrogate models on diverse problems with varying dimensionality, number of objectives, non-stationarity, and discrete and continuous inputs. We find: (i) the ranking of methods is highly problem dependent, suggesting the need for tailored inductive biases; (ii) HMC is the most successful approximate inference procedure for fully stochastic BNNs; (iii) full stochasticity may be unnecessary as deep kernel learning is relatively competitive; (iv) deep ensembles perform relatively poorly; (v) infinite-width BNNs are particularly promising, especially in high dimensions.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

An Information-Theoretic Perspective on Variance-Invariance-Covariance Regularization

Variance-Invariance-Covariance Regularization (VICReg) is a self-supervised learning (SSL) method that has shown promising results on a variety of tasks. However, the fundamental mechanisms underlying VICReg remain unexplored. In this paper, we present an information-theoretic perspective on the VICReg objective. We begin by deriving information-theoretic quantities for deterministic networks as an alternative to unrealistic stochastic network assumptions. We then relate the optimization of the VICReg objective to mutual information optimization, highlighting underlying assumptions and facilitating a constructive comparison with other SSL algorithms and derive a generalization bound for VICReg, revealing its inherent advantages for downstream tasks. Building on these results, we introduce a family of SSL methods derived from information-theoretic principles that outperform existing SSL techniques.

cs.IT↗
arXiv2024

Attacking Bayes: On the Adversarial Robustness of Bayesian Neural Networks

Adversarial examples have been shown to cause neural networks to fail on a wide range of vision and language tasks, but recent work has claimed that Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are inherently robust to adversarial perturbations. In this work, we examine this claim. To study the adversarial robustness of BNNs, we investigate whether it is possible to successfully break state-of-the-art BNN inference methods and prediction pipelines using even relatively unsophisticated attacks for three tasks: (1) label prediction under the posterior predictive mean, (2) adversarial example detection with Bayesian predictive uncertainty, and (3) semantic shift detection. We find that BNNs trained with state-of-the-art approximate inference methods, and even BNNs trained with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, are highly susceptible to adversarial attacks. We also identify various conceptual and experimental errors in previous works that claimed inherent adversarial robustness of BNNs and conclusively demonstrate that BNNs and uncertainty-aware Bayesian prediction pipelines are not inherently robust against adversarial attacks.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Mind the GAP: Improving Robustness to Subpopulation Shifts with Group-Aware Priors

Machine learning models often perform poorly under subpopulation shifts in the data distribution. Developing methods that allow machine learning models to better generalize to such shifts is crucial for safe deployment in real-world settings. In this paper, we develop a family of group-aware prior (GAP) distributions over neural network parameters that explicitly favor models that generalize well under subpopulation shifts. We design a simple group-aware prior that only requires access to a small set of data with group information and demonstrate that training with this prior yields state-of-the-art performance -- even when only retraining the final layer of a previously trained non-robust model. Group aware-priors are conceptually simple, complementary to existing approaches, such as attribute pseudo labeling and data reweighting, and open up promising new avenues for harnessing Bayesian inference to enable robustness to subpopulation shifts.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2023

Function-Space Regularization in Neural Networks: A Probabilistic Perspective

Parameter-space regularization in neural network optimization is a fundamental tool for improving generalization. However, standard parameter-space regularization methods make it challenging to encode explicit preferences about desired predictive functions into neural network training. In this work, we approach regularization in neural networks from a probabilistic perspective and show that by viewing parameter-space regularization as specifying an empirical prior distribution over the model parameters, we can derive a probabilistically well-motivated regularization technique that allows explicitly encoding information about desired predictive functions into neural network training. This method -- which we refer to as function-space empirical Bayes (FSEB) -- includes both parameter- and function-space regularization, is mathematically simple, easy to implement, and incurs only minimal computational overhead compared to standard regularization techniques. We evaluate the utility of this regularization technique empirically and demonstrate that the proposed method leads to near-perfect semantic shift detection, highly-calibrated predictive uncertainty estimates, successful task adaption from pre-trained models, and improved generalization under covariate shift.

stat.ML↗