arXiv subjects

Timothée Loranchet

Publications and source records attributed to Timothée Loranchet.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Root cause analysis via difference graph discovery from linear time-series data

Root cause analysis aims to identify the mechanisms responsible for anomalies in complex dynamical systems. In this paper, we study root cause analysis in linear time-series through the lens of difference graph discovery. We focus on effect-defying root causes, corresponding to variables whose causal coefficients change between a normal and an anomalous regime. We formalize this problem using linear discrete-time dynamic structural causal models and adapt several methods originally introduced for discovering difference graphs between two populations to the time-series setting, where the two populations are replaced by a normal and an anomalous regime. We first evaluate the proposed approaches on simulated data, and then demonstrate their practical relevance on real-world datasets from IT monitoring and intensive care monitoring. Our results show how difference graph discovery can help localize causal mechanisms responsible for anomalous behavior.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Local Markov Equivalence for PC-style Local Causal Discovery and Identification of Controlled Direct Effects

Identifying controlled direct effects (CDEs) is crucial across numerous scientific domains. While existing methods can identify these effects from causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), the true DAG is often unknown in practice. Essential graphs, which represent a Markov equivalence class of DAGs characterized by the same set of conditional independencies, provide a more practical and realistic alternative, and the PC algorithm is one of the most widely used method to learn them using conditional independence tests. However, learning the full essential graph is computationally intensive and relies on strong, untestable assumptions. In this work, we adapt the PC algorithm to recover only the portion of the graph needed for identifying CDEs. In particular, we introduce the local essential graph (LEG), a graph structure defined relative to a target variable, and present LocPC, an algorithm that learns the LEG using solely local conditional independence tests. Building on this, we develop LocPC-CDE, which extracts precisely the portion of the LEG that is both necessary and sufficient for identifying a CDE. Compared to global methods, our algorithms require less conditional independence tests and operate under weaker assumptions while maintaining theoretical guarantees. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach on synthetic and real data.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Orientability of Causal Relations in Time Series using Summary Causal Graphs and Faithful Distributions

Understanding causal relations between temporal variables is a central challenge in time series analysis, particularly when the full causal structure is unknown. Even when the full causal structure cannot be fully specified, experts often succeed in providing a high-level abstraction of the causal graph, known as a summary causal graph, which captures the main causal relations between different time series while abstracting away micro-level details. In this work, we present conditions that guarantee the orientability of micro-level edges between temporal variables given the background knowledge encoded in a summary causal graph and assuming having access to a faithful and causally sufficient distribution with respect to the true unknown graph. Our results provide theoretical guarantees for edge orientation at the micro-level, even in the presence of cycles or bidirected edges at the macro-level. These findings offer practical guidance for leveraging SCGs to inform causal discovery in complex temporal systems and highlight the value of incorporating expert knowledge to improve causal inference from observational time series data.

cs.AI↗