arXiv subjects

Timothy Graham

Publications and source records attributed to Timothy Graham.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Just Asking Questions: Doing Our Own Research on Conspiratorial Ideation by Generative AI Chatbots

Interactive chat systems that build on artificial intelligence frameworks are increasingly ubiquitous and embedded into search engines, Web browsers, and operating systems, or are available on websites and apps. Researcher efforts have sought to understand the limitations and potential for harm of generative AI, which we contribute to here. Conducting a systematic review of six AI-powered chat systems (ChatGPT 3.5; ChatGPT 4 Mini; Microsoft Copilot in Bing; Google Search AI; Perplexity; and Grok in Twitter/X), this study examines how these leading products respond to questions related to conspiracy theories. This follows the platform policy implementation audit approach established by Glazunova et al. (2023). We select five well-known and comprehensively debunked conspiracy theories and four emerging conspiracy theories that relate to breaking news events at the time of data collection. Our findings demonstrate that the extent of safety guardrails against conspiratorial ideation in generative AI chatbots differs markedly, depending on chatbot model and conspiracy theory. Our observations indicate that safety guardrails in AI chatbots are often very selectively designed: generative AI companies appear to focus especially on ensuring that their products are not seen to be racist; they also appear to pay particular attention to conspiracy theories that address topics of substantial national trauma such as 9/11 or relate to well-established political issues. Future work should include an ongoing effort extended to further platforms, multiple languages, and a range of conspiracy theories extending well beyond the United States.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Analysing user identity via time-sensitive semantic edit distance (t-SED): A case study of Russian trolls on Twitter

In the digital era, individuals are increasingly profiled and grouped based on the traces they leave behind in online social networks such as Twitter and Facebook. In this paper, we develop and evaluate a novel text analysis approach for studying user identity and social roles by redefining identity as a sequence of timestamped items (e.g. tweet texts). We operationalise this idea by developing a novel text distance metric, the time-sensitive semantic edit distance (t-SED), which accounts for the temporal context across multiple traces. To evaluate this method we undertake a case study of Russian online-troll activity within US political discourse. The novel metric allows us to classify the social roles of trolls based on their traces, in this case tweets, into one of the predefined categories left-leaning, right-leaning, and news feed. We show the effectiveness of the t-SED metric to measure the similarities between tweets while accounting for the temporal context, and we use novel data visualisation techniques and qualitative analysis to uncover new empirical insights into Russian troll activity that have not been identified in previous work. Additionally, we highlight a connection with the field of Actor-Network Theory and the related hypotheses of Gabriel Tarde, and we discuss how social sequence analysis using t-SED may provide new avenues for tackling a longstanding problem in social theory: how to analyse society without separating reality into micro versus macro levels.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2018

A Decision Tree Approach to Predicting Recidivism in Domestic Violence

Domestic violence (DV) is a global social and public health issue that is highly gendered. Being able to accurately predict DV recidivism, i.e., re-offending of a previously convicted offender, can speed up and improve risk assessment procedures for police and front-line agencies, better protect victims of DV, and potentially prevent future re-occurrences of DV. Previous work in DV recidivism has employed different classification techniques, including decision tree (DT) induction and logistic regression, where the main focus was on achieving high prediction accuracy. As a result, even the diagrams of trained DTs were often too difficult to interpret due to their size and complexity, making decision-making challenging. Given there is often a trade-off between model accuracy and interpretability, in this work our aim is to employ DT induction to obtain both interpretable trees as well as high prediction accuracy. Specifically, we implement and evaluate different approaches to deal with class imbalance as well as feature selection. Compared to previous work in DV recidivism prediction that employed logistic regression, our approach can achieve comparable area under the ROC curve results by using only 3 of 11 available features and generating understandable decision trees that contain only 4 leaf nodes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

#DebateNight: The Role and Influence of Socialbots on Twitter During the 1st 2016 U.S. Presidential Debate

Serious concerns have been raised about the role of 'socialbots' in manipulating public opinion and influencing the outcome of elections by retweeting partisan content to increase its reach. Here we analyze the role and influence of socialbots on Twitter by determining how they contribute to retweet diffusions. We collect a large dataset of tweets during the 1st U.S. Presidential Debate in 2016 (#DebateNight) and we analyze its 1.5 million users from three perspectives: user influence, political behavior (partisanship and engagement) and botness. First, we define a measure of user influence based on the user's active contributions to information diffusions, i.e. their tweets and retweets. Given that Twitter does not expose the retweet structure - it associates all retweets with the original tweet - we model the latent diffusion structure using only tweet time and user features, and we implement a scalable novel approach to estimate influence over all possible unfoldings. Next, we use partisan hashtag analysis to quantify user political polarization and engagement. Finally, we use the BotOrNot API to measure user botness (the likelihood of being a bot). We build a two-dimensional "polarization map" that allows for a nuanced analysis of the interplay between botness, partisanship and influence. We find that not only social bots are more active on Twitter - starting more retweet cascades and retweeting more -- but they are 2.5 times more influential than humans, and more politically engaged. Moreover, pro-Republican bots are both more influential and more politically engaged than their pro-Democrat counterparts. However we caution against blanket statements that software designed to appear human dominates political debates. We find that many highly influential Twitter users are in fact pro-Democrat and that most pro-Republican users are mid-influential and likely to be human (low botness).

cs.SI↗