arXiv subjects

Timothy S. Horbury

Publications and source records attributed to Timothy S. Horbury.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Direct Measurement of Polar Coronal Hole-like Solar Wind in its Acceleration Phase

The early evolution of fast polar coronal hole (PCH) solar wind remains largely unconstrained by in situ measurements. In March 2025, Parker Solar Probe (Parker) at its closest approach of 9.86 Solar Radii ($R_\odot$) measured outflow from a large equatorial coronal hole (ECH) which was also measured at 1\,au and at intermediate distances by Solar Orbiter (also near its perihelion). At 1\,au the stream properties are consistent with PCH properties established by Ulysses. The stream was measured by Parker substantially below the Alfvén surface, with proton temperatures in excess of 2\,MK and a speed at $\sim$10\,$R_\odot$ which was only $\sim$60\% of its asymptotic value. The Solar Orbiter data indicates that the acceleration is largely complete by 60~$R_{\odot}$. Spherically-polarized fluctuations in the stream are observed to develop from near-transverse and small-angle at Parker to full reversal ``switchbacks'' at Solar Orbiter. Comparison of the implied acceleration profile to historical doppler-dimming measurements suggests that the stream's low coronal acceleration is similar to that of PCH flows. Consistent with previous work, this acceleration requires significantly more energy than can be provided by the observed thermal pressure gradients, with a significant contribution likely from the abundant Alfvénic fluctuation energy observed at Parker. These observations provide unique constraints on models of the radial evolution of the fastest solar wind, and indicate that these wind streams experience gradual, steady acceleration over their first few tens of solar radii of evolution.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Real-time prediction of two geomagnetic storms using Solar Orbiter as a far upstream solar wind monitor

We present the first real-time predictions of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and resulting geomagnetic impact at Earth for two events using far-upstream observations from Solar Orbiter during March 2024. While our approach assumes idealized conditions for CME propagation and scaling, in situ magnetic field data from upstream monitors still produced realistic predictions despite the large heliocentric distance between Solar Orbiter and L1 (0.53 and 0.60 au). Geomagnetic index predictions were made 15.3 and 4.3 hours before the CME shock arrival at L1, and 33.9 and 10.3 hours ahead of peak storm time; a large improvement over current L1-based nowcasting capabilities. We find that observationally constraining the simple drag-based models using the upstream in situ observations improved arrival time estimates for the two events in this study, although arrival time errors of several hours still remain. Our results show that good predictions of CME magnetic structure and geomagnetic indices with actionable lead-times can be made with far upstream spacecraft, even with longitudinal separations up to 10° from the Sun-Earth line, over heliocentric distance ranges where radial evolution effects dominate over longitudinal effects. Limitations include different expansion behaviors for individual CMEs and regions within. Future missions providing continuous data, including solar wind plasma parameters alongside magnetic field measurements, could account for preexisting disturbed conditions and improve geomagnetic prediction accuracy. Our findings demonstrate the substantial value of real-time upstream solar wind measurements for enhancing geomagnetic forecasting accuracy at Earth and provide critical validation for future dedicated upstream space weather missions.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2026

On the magnetic field evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejections from 0.07 to 5.4 au

A central question for understanding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) physics and improving space weather forecasting is how ICMEs evolve in interplanetary space. We have updated one of the most comprehensive in situ ICME catalogs to date, which now includes 1976 events from 11 space missions covering over 34 years, from December 1990 to August 2025. We have combined existing catalogs including magnetic obstacles and identified and added boundaries of an additional 807 (40.8%) events ourselves. With this catalog, we demonstrate the most extensive analysis to date of total ICME magnetic field values as a function of heliocentric distance. Parker Solar Probe has observed 6 ICMEs at $< 0.23$ au (until April 2025), and Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo have added more events near 0.3 au, bridging the major observational gap towards the solar corona. Our main result is that a single power law can describe the evolution of the mean total magnetic field (exponent value of $k=-1.57$) and maximum field ($k=-1.53$) for ICMEs with magnetic obstacles (MOs), from 0.07 to 5.4 au. Extending the power law to the solar photosphere reveals a strong inconsistency with magnetic field magnitudes observed in the quiet Sun and active regions by 2 and 4 orders of magnitude, respectively. We introduce a multipole-type power law with two exponents, $k_1=-1.57$, and $k_2=-6$, relating the ICME magnetic field magnitude to an average solar active region field strength. These results present important observational constraints for the evolution of ICMEs from the Sun to the heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Generation and Expansion-Driven Growth of Switchbacks in the Outer Solar Corona and Solar Wind

We analyze \emph{Parker Solar Probe} and \emph{Solar Orbiter} measurements of magnetic-field reversals (``switchbacks'') across the Alfvén surface ($M_a\simeq 1$), where $M_a$ is the Alfvén Mach number. The reported ``sub-Alfvénic switchback dropout'' follows from two diagnostic biases: conditioning on an instantaneous $M_a$, which is transiently elevated above unity by radial-velocity enhancements during large-amplitude Alfvénic rotations, and short-window local-mean backgrounds that partially track these rotations and suppress deflection angles. Treating $M_a$ as a bulk-stream property via rolling medians and referencing deflections to event-independent backgrounds -- a Parker-spiral direction or a sufficiently long rolling median -- recovers sub-Alfvénic switchbacks systematically. The mean deflection $\langle θ\rangle$ separates into two regimes with $M_a$. For $M_a \lesssim 1$, $\langle θ\rangle$ rises rapidly with weak dependence on the background window, consistent with expansion-driven amplification of Alfvénic fluctuations. For $M_a \gtrsim 1$, the evolution becomes scale dependent: large-scale $\langle θ\rangle$ continues to grow with $M_a$ at reduced rate, while small-scale growth saturates, consistent with turbulent decay and dissipation. Collectively, these results indicate that switchbacks need not originate only in the super-Alfvénic solar wind. Instead, they are consistent with a formation pathway in which coronal fluctuations are amplified by large-scale expansion through the sub-Alfvénic regime, with subsequent propagation into the super-Alfvénic wind where turbulent decay modifies their scale-dependent properties.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2025

Ion-Scale Solitary Structures in the Solar Wind Observed by Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe

We investigate a class of ion-scale magnetic solitary structures in the solar wind, characterized by distinct magnetic field enhancements and bipolar rotations over spatial scales of several proton inertial lengths. These structures are revisited using high-resolution data from the Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe missions. Using a machine learning-based method, we identified nearly a thousand such structures, providing new insights into their evolution and physical properties. Statistical analysis shows that these structures are more abundant closer to the Sun, with occurrence rates peaking around (30 - 40, R_sun) and decreasing farther out. High-cadence measurements reveal that these structures are predominantly found in low-beta (beta <= 1) environments, with consistent fluctuations in density, velocity, and magnetic field. Magnetic field enhancements are often accompanied by plasma density drops, which, under near pressure balance, limit field increases. This leads to small fractional field enhancements near the Sun (approximately 0.01 at 20 R_sun), making detection challenging. Magnetic field variance analysis indicates that these structures are primarily oblique to the local magnetic field. Alfvénic velocity-magnetic field correlations suggest that most of these structures, unlike most near-Sun solar wind fluctuations, exhibit sunward-directed Alfvénic polarization in the plasma frame. We compare these findings with previous studies, discussing possible generation mechanisms and their implications for the turbulent cascade in the near-Sun Alfvénic solar wind. While these structures might be Alfvénic solitons, vortices, or flux ropes, we refrain from a definitive classification pending further evidence. Further high-resolution observations and simulations are needed to fully understand their origins and impacts.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2025

Multi-spacecraft Measurements of the Evolving Geometry of the Solar Alfvén Surface Over Half a Solar Cycle

The geometry of a star's Alfvén surface determines stellar angular momentum loss, separates a causally distinct 'corona' and stellar wind, and potentially affects exoplanetary habitability. The solar Alfvén surface is the only such structure that is directly measurable and since 2021, has been routinely measured in situ by NASA's Parker Solar Probe (Parker). We use these unique measurements in concert with Solar Orbiter and L1 in situ data spanning the first half of the Solar Cycle 25 in time and from 0.045 - 1 au in heliocentric distance to develop a radial scaling technique to estimate the morphology of the Alfvén surface from measurements of the solar wind speed and local Alfvén speed. We show that accounting for solar wind acceleration and mass flux is necessary to achieve reasonable agreement between the scaled location of the Alfvén surface and the locations of direct crossings measured by Parker. We produce continuous 2D equatorial cuts of the Alfvén surface over half a Solar Cycle (ascending phase and maximum). Parker's earliest crossings clipped outward extrusions, many of which are likely transient related, while more recently Parker has unambiguously sampled deep sub-Alfvénic flows. We analyze the average altitude, departure from spherical symmetry, and surface roughness, finding that all are positively correlated to solar activity. For the current modest Solar Cycle, the height varies up to 30\% which corresponds to a near-doubling in angular momentum loss per unit mass loss.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Variability in energetic particle observations at strong interplanetary shocks: Multi-spacecraft observations

Context. Interplanetary (IP) shock waves offer an unparalleled opportunity to directly study the elusive mechanisms of particle acceleration that are pervasive in our Universe. Novel spacecraft missions, orbiting poorly-explored regions of the heliosphere, opened a new observational window on particle acceleration at IP shocks that is relevant to space and astrophysical plasmas. Aims. We address shock variability and its effects on the production of accelerated particles at different energies. We leveraged three different missions that directly observed a strong IP shock in a range of separations that cannot be achieved with a single mission. We linked spatial shock irregularities and evolutionary effects to the observed energetic particle responses in the shock passage at the three different heliospheric vantage points. Methods. We exploited direct observations of magnetic field, plasma, and energetic particle fluxes from the Wind and ACE missions at 1 AU and from the Solar Orbiter spacecraft. They are well-aligned radially at 0.8 AU. We devised a new technique based on the cross-correlation of energetic particle profiles to quantitatively address the variability in the characteristics of energetic particles at different points in space and time. Results. We show that ions with different energies respond differently to the shock passage in the range of observer separations 0.02 - 0.2 AU we explored. The shape and behavior of high-energy (> 0.5 MeV) particle profiles vary between the 0.8 and 1 AU observations, and we suggest that this is caused by shock-evolution, in which high-energy particles are produced less efficiently at 1 AU than at 0.8. Finally, we show that shock and ambient spatial irregularities that are observed throughout the event modulate the energetic particle responses at different energies.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

In situ observations of large amplitude Alfvén waves heating and accelerating the solar wind

After leaving the Sun's corona, the solar wind continues to accelerate and cools, but more slowly than expected for a freely expanding adiabatic gas. We use in situ measurements from the Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter spacecrafts to investigate a stream of solar wind as it traverses the inner heliosphere. The observations show heating and acceleration of the the plasma between the outer edge of the corona and near the orbit of Venus, in connection to the presence of large amplitude Alfvén waves. Alfvén waves are perturbations in the interplanetary magnetic field that transport energy. Our calculations show the damping and mechanical work performed by the Alfvén waves is sufficient to power the heating and acceleration of the fast solar wind in the inner heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Turbulent Energy Conversion Associated with Kinetic Microinstabilities in Earth's Magnetosheath

Plasma in the terrestrial magnetosheath is characterised by very weak particle-particle collisions, so kinetic microinstabilities are thought to be responsible for regulating the thermodynamics of the plasma. By exciting electromagnetic waves, these instabilities redistribute free energy in velocity space, moulding the velocity distribution function (VDF) into a lower energy state. In the high-beta magnetosheath, relatively small perturbations to the VDF can easily excite instabilities compared to in the low-beta inner heliosphere. Since magnetic fields cannot do work on the particles, electric fields mediate energy exchange between the electromagnetic field and the bulk fluid properties of the plasma. We investigate signatures of non-ideal energy conversion associated with turbulent fluctuations in the context of electron and ion temperature anisotropy-beta instabilities, utilising over 24 hours of data spread over 163 distinct intervals of in situ magnetosheath observations from Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS). We find that average energy conversion into fluid flow is enhanced along instability boundaries, suggesting that turbulence is playing a role in how free energy is redistributed in the plasma. The work enables a quantification of the energetics which are associated with the role of kinetic microinstabilities in regulating collisionless plasma thermodynamics. This work provides insight into the open question of how specific plasma processes couple into the turbulent dynamics and ultimately lead to energy dissipation and particle energisation in collisionless plasmas.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

Flux rope modeling of the 2022 Sep 5 CME observed by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter from 0.07 to 0.69 au

As both Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter (SolO) reach heliocentric distances closer to the Sun, they present an exciting opportunity to study the structure of CMEs in the inner heliosphere. We present an analysis of the global flux rope structure of the 2022 September 5 CME event that impacted PSP at a heliocentric distance of only 0.07 au and SolO at 0.69 au. We compare in situ measurements at PSP and SolO to determine global and local expansion measures, finding a good agreement between magnetic field relationships with heliocentric distance, but significant differences with respect to flux rope size. We use PSP/WISPR images as input to the ELEvoHI model, providing a direct link between remote and in situ observations; we find a large discrepancy between the resulting modeled arrival times, suggesting that the underlying model assumptions may not be suitable when using data obtained close to the Sun, where the drag regime is markedly different in comparison to larger heliocentric distances. Finally, we fit the SolO/MAG and PSP/FIELDS data independently with the 3DCORE model and find that many parameters are consistent between spacecraft, however, challenges are apparent when reconstructing a global 3D structure that aligns with arrival times at PSP and Solar Orbiter, likely due to the large radial and longitudinal separations between spacecraft. From our model results, it is clear the solar wind background speed and drag regime strongly affect the modeled expansion and propagation of CMEs and need to be taken into consideration.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2023

Irregular proton injection to high energies at interplanetary shocks

How thermal particles are accelerated to suprathermal energies is an unsolved issue, crucial for many astrophysical systems. We report novel observations of irregular, dispersive enhancements of the suprathermal particle population upstream of a high-Mach number interplanetary shock. We interpret the observed behavior as irregular "injections" of suprathermal particles resulting from shock front irregularities. Our findings, directly compared to self-consistent simulation results, provide important insights for the study of remote astrophysical systems where shock structuring is often neglected.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2023

Three-dimensional modelling of the shock-turbulence interaction

The complex interaction between shocks and plasma turbulence is extremely important to address crucial features of energy conversion in a broad range of astrophysical systems. We study the interaction between a supercritical, perpendicular shock and pre-existing, fully-developed plasma turbulence, employing a novel combination of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and small-scale, hybrid-kinetic simulations where a shock is propagating through a turbulent medium. The variability of the shock front in the unperturbed case and for two levels of upstream fluctuations is addressed.We find that the behaviour of shock ripples, i.e., shock surface fluctuations with short (a few ion skin depths, $d_i$) wavelengths, is modified by the presence of pre-existing turbulence, which also induces strong corrugations of the shock front at larger scales. We link this complex behaviour of the shock front and the shock downstream structuring with the proton temperature anisotropies produced in the shock-turbulence system. Finally, we put our modelling effort in the context of spacecraft observations, elucidating the role of novel cross-scale, multi-spacecraft measurements in resolving shock front irregularities at different scales. These results are relevant for a broad range of astrophysical systems characterised by the presence of shock waves interacting with plasma turbulence.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2021

Nonlinear Interactions in Spherically Polarized Alfvénic Turbulence

Turbulent magnetic field fluctuations observed in the solar wind often maintain a constant magnitude condition accompanied by spherically polarized velocity fluctuations; these signatures are characteristic of large-amplitude Alfvén waves. Nonlinear energy transfer in Alfvénic turbulence is typically considered in the small-amplitude limit where the constant magnitude condition may be neglected; in contrast, nonlinear energy transfer in the large-amplitude limit remains relatively unstudied. We develop a method to analyze finite-amplitude turbulence through studying fluctuations as constant magnitude rotations in the stationary wave (de Hoffmann-Teller) frame, which reveals that signatures of finite-amplitude effects exist deep into the MHD range. While the dominant fluctuations are consistent with spherically-polarized large-amplitude Alfvén waves, the subdominant mode is relatively compressible. Signatures of nonlinear interaction between the finite-amplitude spherically polarized mode with the subdominant population reveal highly aligned transverse components. In theoretical models of Alfvénic turbulence, alignment is thought to reduce nonlinearity; our observations require that alignment is sufficient to either reduce shear nonlinearity such that non-Alfvénic interactions may be responsible for energy transfer in spherically polarized states, or that counter-propagating fluctuations maintain anomalous coherence, which is a predicted signature of reflection-driven turbulence.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2021

Plasma Properties, Switchback Patches and Low $α$-Particle Abundance in Slow Alfvénic Coronal Hole Wind at 0.13 au

The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) mission presents a unique opportunity to study the near-Sun solar wind closer than any previous spacecraft. During its fourth and fifth solar encounters, PSP had the same orbital trajectory, meaning that solar wind was measured at the same latitudes and radial distances. We identify two streams measured at the same heliocentric distance ($\sim$0.13au) and latitude ($\sim$-3.5$^{\circ}$) across these encounters to reduce spatial evolution effects. By comparing the plasma of each stream, we confirm that they are not dominated by variable transient events, despite PSP's proximity to the heliospheric current sheet. Both streams are consistent with a previous slow Alfvénic solar wind study once radial effects are considered, and appear to originate at the Southern polar coronal hole boundary. We also show that the switchback properties are not distinctly different between these two streams. Low $α$-particle abundance ($\sim$ 0.6 %) is observed in the encounter 5 stream, suggesting that some physical mechanism must act on coronal hole boundary wind to cause $α$-particle depletion. Possible explanations for our observations are discussed, but it remains unclear whether the depletion occurs during the release or the acceleration of the wind. Using a flux tube argument, we note that an $α$-particle abundance of $\sim$ 0.6 % in this low velocity wind could correspond to an abundance of $\sim$ 0.9 % at 1 au. Finally, as the two streams roughly correspond to the spatial extent of a switchback patch, we suggest that patches are distinct features of coronal hole wind.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Statistical analysis of orientation, shape, and size of solar wind switchbacks

One of the main discoveries from the first two orbits of Parker Solar Probe (PSP) was the presence of magnetic switchbacks, whose deflections dominated the magnetic field measurements. Determining their shape and size could provide evidence of their origin, which is still unclear. Previous work with a single solar wind stream has indicated that these are long, thin structures although the direction of their major axis could not be determined. We investigate if this long, thin nature extends to other solar wind streams, while determining the direction along which the switchbacks within a stream were aligned. We try to understand how the size and orientation of the switchbacks, along with the flow velocity and spacecraft trajectory, combine to produce the observed structure durations for past and future orbits. We searched for the alignment direction that produced a combination of a spacecraft cutting direction and switchback duration that was most consistent with long, thin structures. The expected form of a long, thin structure was fitted to the results of the best alignment direction, which determined the width and aspect ratio of the switchbacks for that stream. The switchbacks had a mean width of $50,000 \, \rm{km}$, with an aspect ratio of the order of $10$. We find that switchbacks are not aligned along the background flow direction, but instead aligned along the local Parker spiral, perhaps suggesting that they propagate along the magnetic field. Since the observed switchback duration depends on how the spacecraft cuts through the structure, the duration alone cannot be used to determine the size or influence of an individual event. For future PSP orbits, a larger spacecraft transverse component combined with more radially aligned switchbacks will lead to long duration switchbacks becoming less common.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2020

Proton Core Behaviour Inside Magnetic Field Switchbacks

During Parker Solar Probe's first two orbits there are widespread observations of rapid magnetic field reversals known as switchbacks. These switchbacks are extensively found in the near-Sun solar wind, appear to occur in patches, and have possible links to various phenomena such as magnetic reconnection near the solar surface. As switchbacks are associated with faster plasma flows, we questioned whether they are hotter than the background plasma and whether the microphysics inside a switchback is different to its surroundings. We have studied the reduced distribution functions from the Solar Probe Cup instrument and considered time periods with markedly large angular deflections, to compare parallel temperatures inside and outside switchbacks. We have shown that the reduced distribution functions inside switchbacks are consistent with a rigid phase space rotation of the background plasma. As such, we conclude that the proton core parallel temperature is the same inside and outside of switchbacks, implying that a T-V relationship does not hold for the proton core parallel temperature inside magnetic field switchbacks. We further conclude that switchbacks are consistent with Alfvénic pulses travelling along open magnetic field lines. The origin of these pulses, however, remains unknown. We also found that there is no obvious link between radial Poynting flux and kinetic energy enhancements suggesting that the radial Poynting flux is not important for the dynamics of switchbacks.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Linear Stability in the Inner Heliosphere: Helios Reëvaluated

Wave-particle instabilities driven by departures from local thermodynamic equilibrium have been conjectured to play a role in governing solar wind dynamics. We calculate the statistical variation of linear stability over a large subset of Helios I and II fast solar wind observations using a numerical evaluation of the Nyquist stability criterion, accounting for multiple sources of free energy associated with protons and helium including temperature anisotropies and relative drifts. We find that 88\% of the surveyed intervals are linearly unstable. The median growth rate of the unstable modes is within an order of magnitude of the turbulent transfer rate, fast enough to potentially impact the turbulent scale-to-scale energy transfer. This rate does not significantly change with radial distance, though the nature of the unstable modes, and which ion components are responsible for driving the instabilities, does vary. The effect of ion-ion collisions on stability is found to be significant; collisionally young wind is much more unstable than collsionally old wind, with very different kinds of instabilities present in the two kinds of wind.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2013

Correlations at large scales and the onset of turbulence in the fast solar wind

We show that the scaling of structure functions of magnetic and velocity fields in a mostly highly Alfvénic fast solar wind stream depends strongly on the joint distribution of the dimensionless measures of cross helicity and residual energy. Already at very low frequencies, fluctuations that are both more balanced (cross helicity $\sim 0$) and equipartitioned (residual energy $\sim 0$) have steep structure functions reminiscent of "turbulent" scalings usually associated with the inertial range. Fluctuations that are magnetically dominated (residual energy $\sim -1$), and so have closely anti-aligned Elsasser-field vectors, or imbalanced (cross helicity $\sim 1$), and so have closely aligned magnetic and velocity vectors, have wide `$1/f$' ranges typical of fast solar wind. We conclude that the strength of nonlinear interactions of individual fluctuations within a stream, diagnosed by the degree of correlation in direction and magnitude of magnetic and velocity fluctuations, determines the extent of the $1/f$ region observed and thus the onset scale for the turbulent cascade.

physics.space-ph↗