arXiv subjects

Ting Fong May Chui

Publications and source records attributed to Ting Fong May Chui.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

On the Adversarial Robustness of Hydrological Models

The evaluation of hydrological models is essential for both model selection and reliability assessment. However, simply comparing predictions to observations is insufficient for understanding the global landscape of model behavior. This is especially true for many deep learning models, whose structures are complex. Further, in risk-averse operational settings, water managers require models that are trustworthy and provably safe, as non-robustness can put our critical infrastructure at risk. Motivated by the need to select reliable models for operational deployment, we introduce and explore adversarial robustness analysis in hydrological modeling, evaluating whether small, targeted perturbations to meteorological forcings induce substantial changes in simulated discharge. We compare physical-conceptual and deep learning-based hydrological models across 1,347 German catchments under perturbations of varying magnitudes, using the fast gradient sign method (FGSM). We find that, as expected, the FGSM perturbations systematically reduce KGE and increase MSE. However, catastrophic failure is rare and, surprisingly, LSTMs generally demonstrate greater robustness than HBV models. Further, changes in both the predicted hydrographs and the internal model states often respond approximately linearly (at least locally) as perturbation size increases, providing a compact summary of how errors grow under such perturbations. Similar patterns are also observed for random perturbations, suggesting that small input changes usually introduce approximately proportional changes in model output. Overall, these findings support further consideration of LSTMs for operational deployment (due both to their predictive power and robustness), and motivate future work on both characterizing model responses to input changes and improving robustness through architectural modifications and training design.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2025

Knowledge distillation as a pathway toward next-generation intelligent ecohydrological modeling systems

Simulating ecohydrological processes is essential for understanding complex environmental systems and guiding sustainable management amid accelerating climate change and human pressures. Process-based models provide physical realism but can suffer from structural rigidity, high computational costs, and complex calibration, while machine learning (ML) methods are efficient and flexible yet often lack interpretability and transferability. We propose a unified three-phase framework that integrates process-based models with ML and progressively embeds them into artificial intelligence (AI) through knowledge distillation. Phase I, behavioral distillation, enhances process models via surrogate learning and model simplification to capture key dynamics at lower computational cost. Phase II, structural distillation, reformulates process equations as modular components within a graph neural network (GNN), enabling multiscale representation and seamless integration with ML models. Phase III, cognitive distillation, embeds expert reasoning and adaptive decision-making into intelligent modeling agents using the Eyes-Brain-Hands-Mouth architecture. Demonstrations for the Samish watershed highlight the framework's applicability to ecohydrological modeling, showing that it can reproduce process-based model outputs, improve predictive accuracy, and support scenario-based decision-making. The framework offers a scalable and transferable pathway toward next-generation intelligent ecohydrological modeling systems, with the potential extension to other process-based domains.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Learning Generative Models for Lumped Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

This study presents a novel generative modeling approach to rainfall-runoff modeling, focusing on the synthesis of realistic daily catchment runoff time series in response to catchment-averaged climate forcing. Unlike traditional process-based lumped hydrologic models that depend on predefined sets of variables describing catchment physical properties, our approach uses a small number of latent variables to characterize runoff generation processes. These latent variables encapsulate the intrinsic properties of a catchment and can be inferred from catchment climate forcing and discharge data. By sampling from the latent variable space, the model generates runoff time series that closely resemble real-world observations. In this study, we trained the generative models using neural networks on data from over 3,000 global catchments and achieved prediction accuracies comparable to current deep learning models and various conventional lumped models, both within the catchments from the training set and from other regions worldwide. This suggests that the runoff generation process of catchments can be effectively captured by a low-dimensional latent representation. Yet, challenges such as equifinality and optimal determination of latent variables remain. Future research should focus on refining parameter estimation methods and exploring the physical meaning of these latent dimensions to improve model applicability and robustness. This generative approach offers a promising alternative for hydrological modeling that requires minimal assumptions about the physical processes of the catchment.

physics.geo-ph↗