arXiv subjects

Tingxuan Han

Publications and source records attributed to Tingxuan Han.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Data-Adaptive Rerandomization for 2K Factorial Designs

Factorial designs allow simultaneous estimation of multiple main effects and interactions, but covariate imbalance can substantially reduce estimation precision. Existing rerandomization methods improve covariate balance yet do not fully exploit heterogeneous priorities across factorial effects or effect-specific covariate importance. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a data-adaptive rerandomization framework for $2^K$ factorial designs. We first develop an oracle criterion that jointly incorporates researchers' priorities over factorial effects and effect-specific covariate importance, enabling precision gains with guaranteed lower bounds. To make the oracle criterion implementable, we develop a data-adaptive procedure that learns effect-specific covariate importance from a random subset of units and applies an estimated oracle criterion to the remaining units. Unlike existing two-stage rerandomization methods for treatment-control experiments, our procedure accommodates multiple factorial effects and requires no auxiliary dataset. Under a finite-population framework, we establish design-based asymptotic theory and show that the proposed procedure preserves the oracle design's precision-prioritization property and, under suitable conditions, achieves the same asymptotic precision as the oracle design. Numerical studies demonstrate substantial efficiency gains over existing rerandomization methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Rerandomization for quantile treatment effects

Although complete randomization is widely regarded as the gold standard for causal inference, covariate imbalance can still arise by chance in finite samples. Rerandomization has emerged as an effective tool to improve covariate balance across treatment groups and enhance the precision of causal effect estimation. While existing work focuses on average treatment effects, quantile treatment effects (QTEs) provide a richer characterization of treatment heterogeneity by capturing distributional shifts in outcomes, which is crucial for policy evaluation and equity-oriented research. In this article, we establish the asymptotic properties of the QTE estimator under rerandomization within a finite-population framework, without imposing any distributional or modeling assumptions on the covariates or outcomes.The estimator exhibits a non-Gaussian asymptotic distribution, represented as a linear combination of Gaussian and truncated Gaussian random variables. To facilitate inference, we propose a conservative variance estimator and construct corresponding confidence interval. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that rerandomization improves efficiency over complete randomization under mild regularity conditions. Simulation studies further support the theoretical findings and illustrate the practical advantages of rerandomization for QTE estimation.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

On Evaluating the Poisoning Robustness of Federated Learning under Local Differential Privacy

Federated learning (FL) combined with local differential privacy (LDP) enables privacy-preserving model training across decentralized data sources. However, the decentralized data-management paradigm leaves LDPFL vulnerable to participants with malicious intent. The robustness of LDPFL protocols, particularly against model poisoning attacks (MPA), where adversaries inject malicious updates to disrupt global model convergence, remains insufficiently studied. In this paper, we propose a novel and extensible model poisoning attack framework tailored for LDPFL settings. Our approach is driven by the objective of maximizing the global training loss while adhering to local privacy constraints. To counter robust aggregation mechanisms such as Multi-Krum and trimmed mean, we develop adaptive attacks that embed carefully crafted constraints into a reverse training process, enabling evasion of these defenses. We evaluate our framework across three representative LDPFL protocols, three benchmark datasets, and two types of deep neural networks. Additionally, we investigate the influence of data heterogeneity and privacy budgets on attack effectiveness. Experimental results demonstrate that our adaptive attacks can significantly degrade the performance of the global model, revealing critical vulnerabilities and highlighting the need for more robust LDPFL defense strategies against MPA. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZiJW/LDPFL-Attack

cs.CR↗

arXiv2024

Imputation-based randomization tests for randomized experiments with interference

The presence of interference renders classic Fisher randomization tests infeasible due to nuisance unknowns. To address this issue, we propose imputing the nuisance unknowns and computing Fisher randomization p-values multiple times, then averaging them. We term this approach the imputation-based randomization test and provide theoretical results on its asymptotic validity. Our method leverages the merits of randomization and the flexibility of the Bayesian framework: for multiple imputations, we can either employ the empirical distribution of observed outcomes to achieve robustness against model mis-specification or utilize a parametric model to incorporate prior information. Simulation results demonstrate that our method effectively controls the type I error rate and significantly enhances the testing power compared to existing randomization tests for randomized experiments with interference. We apply our method to a two-round randomized experiment with multiple treatments and one-way interference, where existing randomization tests exhibit limited power.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Total-effect Test May Erroneously Reject So-called "Full" or "Complete" Mediation

The procedure for establishing mediation, i.e., determining that an independent variable X affects a dependent variable Y through some mediator M, has been under debate. The classic causal steps require that a "total effect" be significant, now also known as statistically acknowledged. It has been shown that the total-effect test can erroneously reject competitive mediation and is superfluous for establishing complementary mediation. Little is known about the last type, indirect-only mediation, aka "full" or "complete" mediation, in which the indirect (ab) path passes the statistical partition test while the direct-and-remainder (d) path fails. This study 1) provides proof that the total-effect test can erroneously reject indirect-only mediation, including both sub-types, assuming least square estimation (LSE) F-test or Sobel test; 2) provides a simulation to duplicate the mathematical proofs and extend the conclusion to LAD-Z test; 3) provides two real-data examples, one for each sub-type, to illustrate the mathematical conclusion; 4) in view of the mathematical findings, proposes to revisit concepts, theories, and techniques of mediation analysis and other causal dissection analyses, and showcase a more comprehensive alternative, process-and-product analysis (PAPA).

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Bayesian Criterion for Re-randomization

Re-randomization has gained popularity as a tool for experiment-based causal inference due to its superior covariate balance and statistical efficiency compared to classic randomized experiments. However, the basic re-randomization method, known as ReM, and many of its extensions have been deemed sub-optimal as they fail to prioritize covariates that are more strongly associated with potential outcomes. To address this limitation and design more efficient re-randomization procedures, a more precise quantification of covariate heterogeneity and its impact on the causal effect estimator is in a great appeal. This work fills in this gap with a Bayesian criterion for re-randomization and a series of novel re-randomization procedures derived under such a criterion. Both theoretical analyses and numerical studies show that the proposed re-randomization procedures under the Bayesian criterion outperform existing ReM-based procedures significantly in effectively balancing covariates and precisely estimating the unknown causal effect.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

COVID-19 causes record decline in global CO2 emissions

The considerable cessation of human activities during the COVID-19 pandemic has affected global energy use and CO2 emissions. Here we show the unprecedented decrease in global fossil CO2 emissions from January to April 2020 was of 7.8% (938 Mt CO2 with a +6.8% of 2-σ uncertainty) when compared with the period last year. In addition other emerging estimates of COVID impacts based on monthly energy supply or estimated parameters, this study contributes to another step that constructed the near-real-time daily CO2 emission inventories based on activity from power generation (for 29 countries), industry (for 73 countries), road transportation (for 406 cities), aviation and maritime transportation and commercial and residential sectors emissions (for 206 countries). The estimates distinguished the decline of CO2 due to COVID-19 from the daily, weekly and seasonal variations as well as the holiday events. The COVID-related decreases in CO2 emissions in road transportation (340.4 Mt CO2, -15.5%), power (292.5 Mt CO2, -6.4% compared to 2019), industry (136.2 Mt CO2, -4.4%), aviation (92.8 Mt CO2, -28.9%), residential (43.4 Mt CO2, -2.7%), and international shipping (35.9Mt CO2, -15%). Regionally, decreases in China were the largest and earliest (234.5 Mt CO2,-6.9%), followed by Europe (EU-27 & UK) (138.3 Mt CO2, -12.0%) and the U.S. (162.4 Mt CO2, -9.5%). The declines of CO2 are consistent with regional nitrogen oxides concentrations observed by satellites and ground-based networks, but the calculated signal of emissions decreases (about 1Gt CO2) will have little impacts (less than 0.13ppm by April 30, 2020) on the overserved global CO2 concertation. However, with observed fast CO2 recovery in China and partial re-opening globally, our findings suggest the longer-term effects on CO2 emissions are unknown and should be carefully monitored using multiple measures.

econ.GN↗