arXiv subjects

Tiziano Squartini

Publications and source records attributed to Tiziano Squartini.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Missing links prediction: comparing machine learning with physics-rooted approaches

An active research line within the broader field of network science is the one concerning link prediction. Close in scope to network reconstruction, link prediction targets specific connections with the aim of uncovering the missing ones, as well as predicting those most likely to emerge in the future, from the available information. In this paper, we consider two families of methods, i.e. those rooted in statistical physics and those based upon machine learning: the members of the first family identify missing links as the most probable non-observed ones, the probability coefficients being determined by solving maximum-entropy benchmarks over the accessible network structure; the members of the second family, instead, associate the presence of single edges to explanatory node-specific variables. Running likelihood-based models such as the Configuration Model, or one of its many fitness-based variants, in parallel with the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree algorithm reveals that the accuracy of the former is comparable to the accuracy of the latter. Such a result confirms that white-box algorithms are viable competitors to the currently available black-box ones, being more interpretable and computationally faster.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

The hidden structure of innovation networks

Innovation emerges from complex collaboration patterns - among inventors, firms, or institutions. However, not much is known about the overall mesoscopic structure around which inventive activity self-organizes. Here, we tackle this problem by employing patent data to analyze both individual (\textit{co-inventorship}) and organization (\textit{co-ownership}) networks in three strategic domains (\textit{artificial intelligence}, \textit{biotechnology} and \textit{semiconductors}). We characterize the mesoscale structure (in terms of clusters) of each domain by comparing two alternative methods: a standard baseline - modularity maximization - and one based on the minimization of the Bayesian Information Criterion, within the Stochastic Block Model and its degree-corrected variant. We find that, across sectors, inventor networks are denser and more clustered than organization ones - consistently with the presence of small recurrent teams embedded into broader institutional hierarchies - whereas organization networks have a neater role-based structures, with few bridging firms coordinating the most peripheral ones; still, both are characterized by the presence of local core-periphery structures. We also find that the discovered meso-structures are connected to innovation output. In particular, Lorenz curves of forward citations show a pervasive inequality in technological influence: across sectors and methods, both inventor (especially) and organization networks consistently show high levels of concentration of citations in a few of the discovered clusters. Our results demonstrate that the baseline modularity-based method may not be capable of fully capturing the way collaborations drive the spreading of inventive impact across technological domains. This is due to the presence of local hierarchies that call for the more refined tools of Bayesian inference.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

A Bayesian approach to out-of-sample network reconstruction

Networks underpin systems that range from finance to biology, yet their structure is often only partially observed. Current reconstruction methods typically fit the parameters of a model anew to each snapshot, thus offering no guidance to predict future configurations. Here, we develop a Bayesian approach that uses the information about past network snapshots to inform a prior and predict the subsequent ones, while quantifying uncertainty. Instantiated with a single-parameter fitness model, our method infers link probabilities from node strengths and carries information forward in time. When applied to the Electronic Market for Interbank Deposit across the years 1999-2012, our method accurately recovers the number of connections per bank at subsequent times, outperforming probabilistic benchmarks designed for analogous, link prediction tasks. Notably, each predicted snapshot serves as a reliable prior for the next one, thus enabling self-sustained, out-of-sample reconstruction of evolving networks with a minimal amount of additional data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Reproducing the first and second moments of empirical degree distributions

The study of probabilistic models for the analysis of complex networks represents a flourishing research field. Among the former, Exponential Random Graphs (ERGs) have gained increasing attention over the years. So far, only linear ERGs have been extensively employed to gain insight into the structural organisation of real-world complex networks. None, however, is capable of accounting for the variance of the empirical degree distribution. To this aim, non-linear ERGs must be considered. After showing that the usual mean-field approximation forces the degree-corrected version of the two-star model to degenerate, we define a fitness-induced variant of it. Such a `softened' model is capable of reproducing the sample variance, while retaining the explanatory power of its linear counterpart, within a purely canonical framework.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Assessing imbalance in signed brain networks

Many complex systems - be they financial, natural, or social - are composed of units - such as stocks, neurons, or agents - whose joint activity can be represented as a multivariate time series. An issue of both practical and theoretical importance concerns the possibility of inferring the presence of a static relationship between any two units solely from their dynamic behaviour. The present contribution aims at tackling such an issue within the framework of traditional hypothesis testing: briefly speaking, our suggestion is that of linking any two units if behaving in a sufficiently similar way. To achieve such a goal, we project a multivariate time series onto a signed graph by (1) comparing the empirical properties of the former with those expected under a suitable benchmark and (2) linking any two units with a positive (negative) edge in case the corresponding series shares a significantly large number of concordant (discordant) values. To define our benchmarks, we adopt an information-theoretic approach that is rooted into the constrained maximisation of Shannon entropy, a procedure inducing an ensemble of multivariate time series that preserves some of the empirical properties on average, while randomising everything else. We showcase the possible applications of our method by addressing one of the most timely issues in the domain of neurosciences, i.e. that of determining if brain networks are frustrated or not, and, if so, to what extent. As our results suggest, this is indeed the case, with the major contribution to the underlying negative subgraph coming from the subcortical regions (and, to a lesser extent, from the limbic ones). At the mesoscopic level, the minimisation of the Bayesian information criterion, instantiated with the signed stochastic block model, reveals that brain regions gather into modules aligning with the statistical variant of the relaxed balance theory.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

A large-scale dataset of Android applications and their SDK dependencies

Mobile applications (apps) increasingly rely on third-party Software Development Kits (SDKs) to provide services such as advertising, analytics, authentication, crash reporting, and location services. These components form an important, but often hidden, layer of the mobile ecosystem. Here, we present a large-scale dataset linking Android apps to the third-party SDKs they integrate. The dataset was constructed by combining app package files (APKs) and metadata from AndroZoo with SDK detection rules provided by Exodus Privacy. We implemented a reproducible, static-analysis pipeline that downloads APKs, inspects their compiled code, and detects SDKs through code-level signature matching: the released dataset contains 334,719 unique app-version observations (associated with 99,722 Android apps) and 246 third-party SDKs - including app-level metadata such as categories, comments, file size, download counts, ratings and SDK-level metadata such as categories, code roots, code versions, names. The dataset supports the construction of a large-scale app-SDK dependency network and its projection onto both layers; in addition, SDKs are mapped to their corresponding operating companies, enabling provider-level analysis of technological concentration and upstream control in the mobile ecosystem. To support reproducible research, the pipeline and dataset are publicly released on GitHub and Zenodo; more broadly, the project provides a reusable research infrastructure for studying third-party technological dependencies, data-collection capabilities, and privacy infrastructures across Android apps.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2026

Assessing the Carbon Emissions and Energy Consumption of U.S. Hyperscale Data Centers

The rapid proliferation of hyperscale data centers (HDCs) in the US, mainly driven by the adoption of artificial intelligence, has raised concerns about this industry's environmental footprint. We compiled facility-level information on 403 US hyperscale data centers operating between May 2024 and April 2025 and estimated their electricity consumption, electricity sources, and attributable CO2 emissions. Across different facility-load scenarios, these HDCs consumed approximately 68-99 TWh of electricity and were associated with about 37-54 million metric tons of CO2. Under the central scenario, HDC electricity demand corresponded to approximately 1.8% of total US electricity consumption, with roughly 54% of attributed generation supplied by fossil-fuel sources. The HDC electricity-weighted average carbon intensity was approximately 545 gCO2/kWh, about 48% above the contemporaneous US national grid-average carbon intensity of 370 gCO2/kWh. Our approach provides an attributional tool for assessing the environmental footprint of hyperscale data centers using the most recent EPA eGRID plant-level data.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Topology as information: Network effects in corporate lending

A central challenge in financial economics is understanding how credit networks form under informational noise. We introduce the concept of topological capital, arguing that banks increasingly rely on topological certification, interpreting a borrower's connectivity as a primary proxy for creditworthiness. Using a novel dataset of bank-firm relationships manually extracted from Italian financial statements, we implement a multi-stage empirical framework, benchmarking empirical patterns against a maximum-entropy benchmark, to separate the determinants of credit access from those of loan volumes. Our results indicate that network topology systematically outperforms traditional fundamentals. In the link-formation stage, connectivity breeds further connectivity through an amplified preferential attachment mechanism. In the loan-sizing stage, network strength absorbs the explanatory power of balance-sheet metrics, documenting a profound network substitution effect where topological signals effectively replace physical collateral across all corporate segments. For SMEs, we identify a critical signal divergence: reported debt acts as a risk signal, while network footprint serves as market validation. Furthermore, we reveal a diversification paradox: while firms fragment debt to avoid hold-up risks, over-diversification leads to a complexity penalty that stagnates credit depth and inflates systemic Loss Given Default. Ultimately, our findings signal the twilight of the balance sheet as the primary anchor of corporate lending, calling for a shift toward topological macro-prudential supervision to manage vulnerabilities invisible to traditional bilateral indicators.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Description length of canonical and microcanonical models

The (non-)equivalence of canonical and microcanonical ensembles is a fundamental question in statistical physics, concerning whether the use of soft and hard constraints in the maximum-entropy construction leads to the same description of a system. Despite the fact that maximum-entropy models are also commonly used in statistical inference, pattern detection, and hypothesis testing, a complete understanding of the effects of ensemble non-equivalence on statistical modeling is still missing. Here, we study this problem from a rigorous model selection perspective by comparing canonical and microcanonical models via the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, which yields a trade-off between likelihood, measuring model accuracy, and complexity, measuring model flexibility and its potential to overfit data. We compute the Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) of both formulations and find that: (i) microcanonical models always achieve higher likelihood but are always more complex; (ii) the optimal model choice depends on the empirical values of the constraints -- the canonical model performs best when its fit to the observed data exceeds its uniform average fit across all realizations; (iii) in the thermodynamic limit, the difference in description length per node vanishes when ensemble equivalence holds but persists otherwise, showing that non-equivalence implies extensive differences between large canonical and microcanonical models. Finally, we compare the NML approach to Bayesian methods, showing that (iv) the choice of priors, practically irrelevant in equivalent models, becomes crucial when an extensive number of constraints is enforced, possibly leading to very different outcomes.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2025

Entropy-based models to randomize real-world hypergraphs

Network theory has often disregarded many-body relationships, solely focusing on pairwise interactions: neglecting them, however, can lead to misleading representations of complex systems. Hypergraphs represent a suitable framework for describing polyadic interactions. Here, we leverage the representation of hypergraphs based on the incidence matrix for extending the entropy-based approach to higher-order structures: in analogy with the Exponential Random Graphs, we introduce the Exponential Random Hypergraphs (ERHs). After exploring the asymptotic behaviour of thresholds generalising the percolation one, we apply ERHs to study real-world data. First, we generalise key network metrics to hypergraphs; then, we compute their expected value and compare it with the empirical one, in order to detect deviations from random behaviours. Our method is analytically tractable, scalable and capable of revealing structural patterns of real-world hypergraphs that differ significantly from those emerging as a consequence of simpler constraints.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Statistically validated projection of bipartite signed networks

Bipartite networks provide a major insight into the organisation of many real-world systems. One of the most relevant issues encountered when modelling a bipartite network is that of facing the information shortage concerning intra-layer linkages. In the present contribution, we propose an unsupervised algorithm to obtain statistically validated projections of bipartite signed networks, according to which any two nodes sharing a statistically significant number of concordant (discordant) relationships are connected by a positive (negative) edge. Our algorithm outputs a matrix of link-specific $p-$values, from which a validated projection can be obtained upon running a multiple-hypothesis testing procedure. After testing our method on synthetic configurations output by a fully controllable generative model, we apply it to several real-world configurations: in all cases, non-trivial mesoscopic structures, induced by relationships that cannot be traced back to the constraints defining the employed benchmarks, hence revealing genuine traces of self-organisation, are detected.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Exploring the Bitcoin Mesoscale

The open availability of the entire history of the Bitcoin transactions opens up the possibility to study this system at an unprecedented level of detail. This contribution is devoted to the analysis of the mesoscale structural properties of the Bitcoin User Network (BUN), across its entire history (i.e. from 2009 to 2017). What emerges from our analysis is that the BUN is characterized by a core-periphery structure a deeper analysis of which reveals a certain degree of bow-tieness (i.e. the presence of a Strongly-Connected Component, an IN- and an OUT-component together with some tendrils attached to the IN-component). Interestingly, the evolution of the BUN structural organization experiences fluctuations that seem to be correlated with the presence of bubbles, i.e. periods of price surge and decline observed throughout the entire Bitcoin history: our results, thus, further confirm the interplay between structural quantities and price movements observed in previous analyses.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2024

Assessing frustration in real-world signed networks: a statistical theory of balance

According to the so-called strong version of structural balance theory, actors in signed social networks avoid establishing triads with an odd number of negative links. Generalising, the weak version of balance theory allows for nodes to be partitioned into any number of blocks with positive internal links, mutually connected by negative links. If this prescription is interpreted rigidly, i.e. without allowing for statistical noise in the observed link signs, then most real graphs will appear to require a larger number of blocks than the actual one, or even to violate both versions of the theory. This might lead to conclusions invoking even more relaxed notions of balance. Here, after rephrasing structural balance theory in statistically testable terms, we propose an inference scheme to unambiguously assess whether a real-world, signed graph is balanced. We find that the proposed statistical balance theory leads to interpretations that are quite different from those derived from the current, deterministic versions of the theory.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Spectral signatures of structural change in financial networks

The level of systemic risk in economic and financial systems is strongly determined by the structure of the underlying networks of interdependent entities that can propagate shocks and stresses. Since changes in network structure imply changes in risk levels, it is important to identify structural transitions potentially leading to system-wide crises. Methods have been proposed to assess whether a real-world network is in a (quasi-)stationary state by checking the consistency of its structural evolution with appropriate maximum-entropy ensembles of graphs. While previous analyses of this kind have focused on dyadic and triadic motifs, hence disregarding higher-order structures, here we consider closed walks of any length. Specifically, we study the ensemble properties of the spectral radius of random graph models calibrated on real-world evolving networks. Our approach is shown to work remarkably well for directed networks, both binary and weighted. As illustrative examples, we consider the Electronic Market for Interbank Deposit (e-MID), the Dutch Interbank Network (DIN) and the International Trade Network (ITN) in their evolution across the 2008 crisis. By monitoring the deviation of the spectral radius from its ensemble expectation, we find that the ITN remains in a (quasi-)equilibrium state throughout the period considered, while both the DIN and e-MID exhibit a clear out-of-equilibrium behaviour. The spectral deviation therefore captures ongoing topological changes, extending over all length scales, to provide a compact proxy of the resilience of economic and financial networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Inferring firm-level supply chain networks with realistic systemic risk from industry sector-level data

Production networks constitute the backbone of every economic system. They are inherently fragile as several recent crises clearly highlighted. Estimating the system-wide consequences of local disruptions (systemic risk) requires detailed information on the supply chain networks (SCN) at the firm-level, as systemic risk is associated with specific mesoscopic patterns. However, such information is usually not available and realistic estimates must be inferred from available sector-level data such as input-output tables and firm-level aggregate output data. Here we explore the ability of several maximum-entropy algorithms to infer realizations of SCNs characterized by a realistic level of systemic risk. We are in the unique position to test them against the actual Ecuadorian production network at the firm-level. Concretely, we compare various properties, including the Economic Systemic Risk Index, of the Ecuadorian production network with those from four inference models. We find that the most realistic systemic risk content at the firm-level is retrieved by the model that incorporates information about firm-specific input disaggregated by sector, indicating the importance of correctly accounting for firms' heterogeneous input profiles across sectors. Our results clearly demonstrate the minimal amount of empirical information at the sector level that is necessary to statistically generate synthetic SCNs that encode realistic firm-specific systemic risk.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Patterns of link reciprocity in directed, signed networks

Most of the analyses concerning signed networks have focused on the balance theory, hence identifying frustration with undirected, triadic motifs having an odd number of negative edges; much less attention has been paid to their directed counterparts. To fill this gap, we focus on signed, directed connections, with the aim of exploring the notion of frustration in such a context. When dealing with signed, directed edges, frustration is a multi-faceted concept, admitting different definitions at different scales: if we limit ourselves to consider cycles of length two, frustration is related to reciprocity, i.e. the tendency of edges to admit the presence of partners pointing in the opposite direction. As the reciprocity of signed networks is still poorly understood, we adopt a principled approach for its study, defining quantities and introducing models to consistently capture empirical patterns of the kind. In order to quantify the tendency of empirical networks to form either mutualistic or antagonistic cycles of length two, we extend the Exponential Random Graphs framework to binary, directed, signed networks with global and local constraints and, then, compare the empirical abundance of the aforementioned patterns with the one expected under each model. We find that the (directed extension of the) balance theory is not capable of providing a consistent explanation of the patterns characterising the directed, signed networks considered in this work. Although part of the ambiguities can be solved by adopting a coarser definition of balance, our results call for a different theory, accounting for the directionality of edges in a coherent manner. In any case, the evidence that the empirical, signed networks can be highly reciprocated leads us to recommend to explicitly account for the role played by bidirectional dyads in determining frustration at higher levels (e.g. the triadic one).

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Testing structural balance theories in heterogeneous signed networks

The abundance of data about social relationships allows the human behavior to be analyzed as any other natural phenomenon. Here we focus on balance theory, stating that social actors tend to avoid establishing cycles with an odd number of negative links. This statement, however, can be supported only after a comparison with a benchmark. Since the existing ones disregard actors' heterogeneity, we extend Exponential Random Graphs to signed networks with both global and local constraints and employ them to assess the significance of empirical unbalanced patterns. We find that the nature of balance crucially depends on the null model: while homogeneous benchmarks favor the weak balance theory, according to which only triangles with one negative link should be under-represented, heterogeneous benchmarks favor the strong balance theory, according to which also triangles with all negative links should be under-represented. Biological networks, instead, display strong frustration under any benchmark, confirming that structural balance inherently characterizes social networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Pattern-detection in the global automotive industry: a manufacturer-supplier-product network analysis

Production networks arise from supply and customer relations among firms. These systems are gaining growing attention as a consequence of disruptions due to natural or man-made disasters that happened in the last years, such as the Covid-19 pandemic or the Russia-Ukraine war. However, data constraints force the few, available studies to consider only country-specific production networks. In order to fully capture the cross-country structure of modern supply chains, here we focus on the global automotive industry as represented by the MarkLines Automotive dataset. After representing this data as a network of manufacturers, suppliers, and products, we perform a pattern-detection exercise using a statistically grounded validation technique based on the maximum entropy principle. We reveal the presence of a significantly large number of V-shaped and square-shaped motifs, indicating that manufacturing firms compete and are seldom engaged in a buyer-supplier relationship, while they typically have many suppliers in common. Interestingly, generalist and specialist suppliers coexist in the network. Additionally, we unveil the presence of geographical patterns, with manufacturers clustering around groups of suppliers; for instance, Chinese firms constitute a disconnected community, likely an effect of the protectionist policies promoted by the Chinese government. We also show the tendency of suppliers to organize their production by targeting specific functional modules of a vehicle. Besides shedding light on the self-organising principles shaping production networks, our findings open up the possibility of designing realistic generative models of supply chains, to be used for testing the resilience of the interconnected global economy.

physics.soc-ph↗