arXiv subjects

Tobias Grafke

Publications and source records attributed to Tobias Grafke.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Dynamical landscape of transitional pipe flow

The transition to turbulence in pipes is characterized by a coexistence of laminar and turbulent states. At the lower end of the transition, localized turbulent pulses, called puffs, can be excited. Puffs can decay when rare fluctuations drive them close to an edge state lying at the phase-space boundary with laminar flow. At higher Reynolds numbers, homogeneous turbulence can be sustained, and dominates over laminar flow. Here we complete this landscape of localized states, placing it within a unified bifurcation picture. We demonstrate our claims within the Barkley model, and motivate them generally. Specifically, we suggest the existence of an antipuff and a gap-edge -- states which mirror the puff and related edge state. Previously observed laminar gaps forming within homogeneous turbulence are then naturally identified as antipuffs nucleating and decaying through the gap edge.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2022

Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking for Extreme Vorticity and Strain in the 3D Navier-Stokes Equations

We investigate the spatio-temporal structure of the most likely configurations realising extremely high vorticity or strain in the stochastically forced 3D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. Most likely configurations are computed by numerically finding the highest probability velocity field realising an extreme constraint as solution of a large optimisation problem. High-vorticity configurations are identified as pinched vortex filaments with swirl, while high-strain configurations correspond to counter-rotating vortex rings. We additionally observe that the most likely configurations for vorticity and strain spontaneously break their rotational symmetry for extremely high observable values. Instanton calculus and large deviation theory allow us to show that these maximum likelihood realisations determine the tail probabilities of the observed quantities. In particular, we are able to demonstrate that artificially enforcing rotational symmetry for large strain configurations leads to a severe underestimate of their probability, as it is dominated in likelihood by an exponentially more likely symmetry broken vortex-sheet configuration.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2021

Sharp Asymptotic Estimates for Expectations, Probabilities, and Mean First Passage Times in Stochastic Systems with Small Noise

Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations can be used to compute the likelihood of extreme or rare events in stochastic dynamical systems via the solution of an optimization problem. The approach gives exponential estimates that often need to be refined via calculation of a prefactor. Here it is shown how to perform these computations in practice. Specifically, sharp asymptotic estimates are derived for expectations, probabilities, and mean first passage times in a form that is geared towards numerical purposes: they require solving well-posed matrix Riccati equations involving the minimizer of the Freidlin-Wentzell action as input, either forward or backward in time with appropriate initial or final conditions tailored to the estimate at hand. The usefulness of our approach is illustrated on several examples. In particular, invariant measure probabilities and mean first passage times are calculated in models involving stochastic partial differential equations of reaction-advection-diffusion type.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2021

Extreme events and instantons in Lagrangian passive scalar turbulence models

The advection and mixing of a scalar quantity by fluid flow is an important problem in engineering and natural sciences. If the fluid is turbulent, the statistics of the passive scalar exhibit complex behavior. This paper is concerned with two Lagrangian scalar turbulence models based on the recent fluid deformation model that can be shown to reproduce the statistics of passive scalar turbulence for a range of Reynolds numbers. For these models, we demonstrate how events of extreme passive scalar gradients can be recovered by computing the instanton, i.e., the saddle-point configuration of the associated stochastic field theory. It allows us to both reproduce the heavy-tailed statistics associated with passive scalar turbulence, and recover the most likely mechanism leading to such extreme events. We further demonstrate that events of large negative strain in these models undergo spontaneous symmetry breaking.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2021

Gel'fand-Yaglom type equations for calculating fluctuations around Instantons in stochastic systems

In recent years, instanton calculus has successfully been employed to estimate tail probabilities of rare events in various stochastic dynamical systems. Without further corrections, however, these estimates can only capture the exponential scaling. In this paper, we derive a general, closed form expression for the leading prefactor contribution of the fluctuations around the instanton trajectory for the computation of probability density functions of general observables. The key technique is applying the Gel'fand-Yaglom recursive evaluation method to the suitably discretized Gaussian path integral of the fluctuations, in order to obtain matrix evolution equations that yield the fluctuation determinant. We demonstrate agreement between these predictions and direct sampling for examples motivated from turbulence theory.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2021

Approximate optimal controls via instanton expansion for low temperature free energy computation

The computation of free energies is a common issue in statistical physics. A natural technique to compute such high dimensional integrals is to resort to Monte Carlo simulations. However these techniques generally suffer from a high variance in the low temperature regime, because the expectation is often dominated by high values corresponding to rare system trajectories. A standard way to reduce the variance of the estimator is to modify the drift of the dynamics with a control enhancing the probability of rare event, leading to so-called importance sampling estimators. In theory, the optimal control leads to a zero-variance estimator; it is however defined implicitly and computing it is of the same difficulty as the original problem. We propose here a general strategy to build approximate optimal controls in the small temperature limit for diffusion processes, with the first goal to reduce the variance of free energy Monte Carlo estimators. Our construction builds upon low noise asymptotics by expanding the optimal control around the instanton, which is the path describing most likely fluctuations at low temperature. This technique not only helps reducing variance, but it is also interesting as a theoretical tool since it differs from usual small temperature expansions (WKB ansatz). As a complementary consequence of our expansion, we provide a perturbative formula for computing the free energy in the small temperature regime, which refines the now standard Freidlin--Wentzell asymptotics. We compute this expansion explicitly for lower orders, and explain how our strategy can be extended to an arbitrary order of accuracy. We support our findings with illustrative numerical examples.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2021

A new stochastic framework for ship capsizing

We present a new stochastic framework for studying ship capsize. It is a synthesis of two strands of transition state theory. The first is an extension of deterministic transition state theory to dissipative non-autonomous systems, together with a probability distribution over the forcing functions. The second is stochastic reachability and large deviation theory for transition paths in Markovian systems. In future work we aim to bring these together to make a tool for predicting capsize rate in different stochastic sea states, suggesting control strategies and improving designs.

math.DS↗

arXiv2021

Dynamical Landscape and Multistability of a Climate Model

We apply two independent data analysis methodologies to locate stable climate states in an intermediate complexity climate model and analyze their interplay. First, drawing from the theory of quasipotentials, and viewing the state space as an energy landscape with valleys and mountain ridges, we infer the relative likelihood of the identified multistable climate states, and investigate the most likely transition trajectories as well as the expected transition times between them. Second, harnessing techniques from data science, specifically manifold learning, we characterize the data landscape of the simulation output to find climate states and basin boundaries within a fully agnostic and unsupervised framework. Both approaches show remarkable agreement, and reveal, apart from the well known warm and snowball earth states, a third intermediate stable state in one of the two climate models we consider. The combination of our approaches allows to identify how the negative feedback of ocean heat transport and entropy production via the hydrological cycle drastically change the topography of the dynamical landscape of Earth's climate.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Instantons for rare events in heavy-tailed distributions

Large deviation theory and instanton calculus for stochastic systems are widely used to gain insight into the evolution and probability of rare events. At its core lies the realization that rare events are, under the right circumstances, dominated by their least unlikely realization. Their computation through a saddle-point approximation of the path integral for the corresponding stochastic field theory then reduces an inefficient stochastic sampling problem into a deterministic optimization problem: finding the path of smallest action, the instanton. In the presence of heavy tails, though, standard algorithms to compute the instanton critically fail to converge. The reason for this failure is the divergence of the scaled cumulant generating function (CGF) due to a non-convex large deviation rate function. We propose a solution to this problem by "convexifying" the rate function through nonlinear reparametrization of the observable, which allows us to compute instantons even in the presence of super-exponential or algebraic tail decay. The approach is generalizable to other situations where the existence of the CGF is required, such as exponential tilting in importance sampling for Monte-Carlo algorithms. We demonstrate the proposed formalism by applying it to rare events in several stochastic systems with heavy tails, including extreme power spikes in fiber optics induced by soliton formation.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2019

Experimental Evidence of Hydrodynamic Instantons: The Universal Route to Rogue Waves

A statistical theory of rogue waves is proposed and tested against experimental data collected in a long water tank where random waves with different degrees of nonlinearity are mechanically generated and free to propagate along the flume. Strong evidence is given that the rogue waves observed in the tank are hydrodynamic instantons, that is, saddle point configurations of the action associated with the stochastic model of the wave system. As shown here, these hydrodynamic instantons are complex spatio-temporal wave field configurations, which can be defined using the mathematical framework of Large Deviation Theory and calculated via tailored numerical methods. These results indicate that the instantons describe equally well rogue waves that originate from a simple linear superposition mechanism (in weakly nonlinear conditions) or from a nonlinear focusing one (in strongly nonlinear conditions), paving the way for the development of a unified explanation to rogue wave formation.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2019

String Method for Generalized Gradient Flows: Computation of Rare Events in Reversible Stochastic Processes

Rare transitions in stochastic processes can often be rigorously described via an underlying large deviation principle. Recent breakthroughs in the classification of reversible stochastic processes as gradient flows have led to a connection of large deviation principles to a generalized gradient structure. Here, we show that, as a consequence, metastable transitions in these reversible processes can be interpreted as heteroclinic orbits of the generalized gradient flow. This in turn suggests a numerical algorithm to compute the transition trajectories in configuration space efficiently, based on the string method traditionally restricted only to gradient diffusions.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2018

Numerical computation of rare events via large deviation theory

An overview of rare events algorithms based on large deviation theory (LDT) is presented. It covers a range of numerical schemes to compute the large deviation minimizer in various setups, and discusses best practices, common pitfalls, and implementation trade-offs. Generalizations, extensions, and improvements of the minimum action methods are proposed. These algorithms are tested on example problems which illustrate several common difficulties which arise e.g. when the forcing is degenerate or multiplicative, or the systems are infinite-dimensional. Generalizations to processes driven by non-Gaussian noises or random initial data and parameters are also discussed, along with the connection between the LDT-based approach reviewed here and other methods, such as stochastic field theory and optimal control. Finally, the integration of this approach in importance sampling methods using e.g. genealogical algorithms is explored.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2018

Extreme event quantification in dynamical systems with random components

A central problem in uncertainty quantification is how to characterize the impact that our incomplete knowledge about models has on the predictions we make from them. This question naturally lends itself to a probabilistic formulation, by making the unknown model parameters random with given statistics. Here this approach is used in concert with tools from large deviation theory (LDT) and optimal control to estimate the probability that some observables in a dynamical system go above a large threshold after some time, given the prior statistical information about the system's parameters and/or its initial conditions. Specifically, it is established under which conditions such extreme events occur in a predictable way, as the minimizer of the LDT action functional. It is also shown how this minimization can be numerically performed in an efficient way using tools from optimal control. These findings are illustrated on the examples of a rod with random elasticity pulled by a time-dependent force, and the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE) with random initial conditions.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2018

Rogue Waves and Large Deviations in Deep Sea

The appearance of rogue waves in deep sea is investigated using the modified nonlinear Schrödinger (MNLS) equation in one spatial-dimension with random initial conditions that are assumed to be normally distributed, with a spectrum approximating realistic conditions of a uni-directional sea state. It is shown that one can use the incomplete information contained in this spectrum as prior and supplement this information with the MNLS dynamics to reliably estimate the probability distribution of the sea surface elevation far in the tail at later times. Our results indicate that rogue waves occur when the system hits unlikely pockets of wave configurations that trigger large disturbances of the surface height. The rogue wave precursors in these pockets are wave patterns of regular height but with a very specific shape that is identified explicitly, thereby allowing for early detection. The method proposed here combines Monte Carlo sampling with tools from large deviations theory that reduce the calculation of the most likely rogue wave precursors to an optimization problem that can be solved efficiently. This approach is transferable to other problems in which the system's governing equations contain random initial conditions and/or parameters.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2017

Long Term Effects of Small Random Perturbations on Dynamical Systems: Theoretical and Computational Tools

Small random perturbations may have a dramatic impact on the long time evolution of dynamical systems, and large deviation theory is often the right theoretical framework to understand these effects. At the core of the theory lies the minimization of an action functional, which in many cases of interest has to be computed by numerical means. Here we review the theoretical and computational aspects behind these calculations, and propose an algorithm that simplifies the geometric minimum action method to minimize the action in the space of arc-length parametrized curves. We then illustrate this algorithm's capabilities by applying it to various examples from material sciences, fluid dynamics, atmosphere/ocean sciences, and reaction kinetics. In terms of models, these examples involve stochastic (ordinary or partial) differential equations with multiplicative or degenerate noise, Markov jump processes, and systems with fast and slow degrees of freedom, which all violate detailed balance, so that simpler computational methods are not applicable.

math.NA↗

arXiv2017

Non-equilibrium transitions in multiscale systems with a bifurcating slow manifold

Noise-induced transitions between metastable fixed points in systems evolving on multiple time scales are analyzed in situations where the time scale separation gives rise to a slow manifold with bifurcation. This analysis is performed within the realm of large deviation theory. It is shown that these non-equilibrium transitions make use of a reaction channel created by the bifurcation structure of the slow manifold, leading to vastly increased transition rates. Several examples are used to illustrate these findings, including an insect outbreak model, a system modeling phase separation in the presence of evaporation, and a system modeling transitions in active matter self-assembly. The last example involves a spatially extended system modeled by a stochastic partial differential equation.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2017

Spatiotemporal Self-Organization of Fluctuating Bacterial Colonies

We model an enclosed system of bacteria, whose motility-induced phase separation is coupled to slow population dynamics. Without noise, the system shows both static phase separation and a limit cycle, in which a rising global population causes a dense bacterial colony to form, which then declines by local cell death, before dispersing to re-initiate the cycle. Adding fluctuations, we find that static colonies are now metastable, moving between spatial locations via rare and strongly nonequilibrium pathways, whereas the limit cycle becomes almost periodic such that after each redispersion event the next colony forms in a random location. These results, which hint at some aspects of the biofilm-planktonic life cycle, can be explained by combining tools from large deviation theory with a bifurcation analysis in which the global population density plays the role of control parameter.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2015

Large Deviations in Fast-Slow Systems

The incidence of rare events in fast-slow systems is investigated via analysis of the large deviation principle (LDP) that characterizes the likelihood and pathway of large fluctuations of the slow variables away from their mean behavior -- such fluctuations are rare on short timescales but become ubiquitous eventually. This LDP involves an Hamilton-Jacobi equation whose Hamiltonian is related to the leading eigenvalue of the generator of the fast process, and is typically non-quadratic in the momenta -- in other words, the LDP for the slow variables in fast-slow systems is different in general from that of any stochastic differential equation (SDE) one would write for the slow variables alone. It is shown here that the eigenvalue problem for the Hamiltonian can be reduced to a simpler algebraic equation for this Hamiltonian for a specific class of systems in which the fast variables satisfy a linear equation whose coefficients depend nonlinearly on the slow variables, and the fast variables enter quadratically the equation for the slow variables. These results are illustrated via examples, inspired by kinetic theories of turbulent flows and plasma, in which the quasipotential characterizing the long time behavior of the system is calculated and shown again to be different from that of an SDE.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗