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Tolulope Fadina

Publications and source records attributed to Tolulope Fadina.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

When fairness metrics fail: A utility-based perspective on $\varepsilon$-fairness

Fairness in decision-making processes is often quantified using probabilistic metrics. However, these metrics need not reflect the consequences of decisions for the affected individuals and groups. We develop a utility-based framework that incorporates these consequences into the assessment of fairness. Our main result shows that a decision-making process can satisfy $\varepsilon$-fairness while nevertheless being maximally unfair once the utilities associated with its outcomes are taken into account. To address applications in which information on false negatives is unavailable, we also formulate a reduced setting that retains the essential elements of the utility-based fairness assessment. We illustrate the framework through two applications: college admissions and credit-risk assessment. In both cases, probabilistic metrics may classify a decision-making process as approximately fair even though the corresponding utility outcomes are highly unequal. In the college-admissions example, our analysis shows that improving completion rates is necessary to achieve equality of utility across groups, while in the mortgage example, mitigating unfairness requires not only adjusting approval rates but also reducing the adverse consequences of default. These findings demonstrate that fairness assessments should account not only for the probabilities of different decisions but also for the consequences of those decisions.

cs.LG

A Temporal Multiplex Graph Neural Network for Systemic Risk Transmission in Global Banking

This paper develops a unified framework for assessing systemic risk and identifying contagion channels in the global banking system using a Temporal Heterogeneous Multiplex Graph Neural Network. We construct a harmonised quarterly panel combining bank fundamentals, CDS spreads, and macroeconomic indicators, and represent these data as dynamic multiplex networks linking banks through financial similarity and liquidity co-movement, augmented with country-level macroeconomic relationships. The model integrates graph convolutional layers with recurrent GRU dynamics and incorporates a learnable fusion gate to capture time-varying reliance on alternative contagion channels. Empirical results show that the framework outperforms conventional econometric, machine learning, and graph-based benchmarks for short-term changes in CDS spreads. Beyond forecasting, we provide an interpretable framework to quantify bank-level systemic importance via stress testing, assess country-level spillovers under macroeconomic shocks, and uncover transmission pathways through edge perturbation analysis. Robustness tests confirm the stability of both predictive accuracy and systemic risk rankings.

q-fin.CP

A Framework for Measures of Risk under Uncertainty

A risk analyst assesses potential financial losses based on multiple sources of information. Often, the assessment does not only depend on the specification of the loss random variable but also various economic scenarios. Motivated by this observation, we design a unified axiomatic framework for risk evaluation principles which quantifies jointly a loss random variable and a set of plausible probabilities. We call such an evaluation principle a generalized risk measure. We present a series of relevant theoretical results. The worst-case, coherent, and robust generalized risk measures are characterized via different sets of intuitive axioms. We establish the equivalence between a few natural forms of law invariance in our framework, and the technical subtlety therein reveals a sharp contrast between our framework and the traditional one. Moreover, coherence and strong law invariance are derived from a combination of other conditions, which provides additional support for coherent risk measures such as Expected Shortfall over Value-at-Risk, a relevant issue for risk management practice.

q-fin.RM

Parametric measures of variability induced by risk measures

We present a general framework for a comparative theory of variability measures, with a particular focus on the recently introduced one-parameter families of inter-Expected Shortfall differences and inter-expectile differences, that are explored in detail and compared with the widely known and applied inter-quantile differences. From the mathematical point of view, our main result is a characterization of symmetric and comonotonic variability measures as mixtures of inter-Expected Shortfall differences, under a few additional technical conditions. Further, we study the stochastic orders induced by the pointwise comparison of inter-Expected Shortfall and inter-expectile differences, and discuss their relationship with the dilation order. From the statistical point of view, we establish asymptotic consistency and normality of the natural estimators and provide a rule of the thumb for cross-comparisons. Finally, we study the empirical behaviour of the considered classes of variability measures on the S&P 500 Index under various economic regimes, and explore the comparability of different time series according to the introduced stochastic orders.

q-fin.RM

Affine processes under parameter uncertainty

We develop a one-dimensional notion of affine processes under parameter uncertainty, which we call non-linear affine processes. This is done as follows: given a set of parameters for the process, we construct a corresponding non-linear expectation on the path space of continuous processes. By a general dynamic programming principle we link this non-linear expectation to a variational form of the Kolmogorov equation, where the generator of a single affine process is replaced by the supremum over all corresponding generators of affine processes with parameters in the parameter set. This non-linear affine process yields a tractable model for Knightian uncertainty, especially for modelling interest rates under ambiguity. We then develop an appropriate Ito-formula, the respective term-structure equations and study the non-linear versions of the Vasicek and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. Thereafter we introduce the non-linear Vasicek-CIR model. This model is particularly suitable for modelling interest rates when one does not want to restrict the state space a priori and hence the approach solves this modelling issue arising with negative interest rates.

math.PR

Hyperfinite Construction of $G$-expectation

The hyperfinite $G$-expectation is a nonstandard discrete analogue of $G$-expectation (in the sense of Robinsonian nonstandard analysis). A lifting of a continuous-time $G$-expectation operator is defined as a hyperfinite $G$-expectation which is infinitely close, in the sense of nonstandard topology, to the continuous-time $G$-expectation. We develop the basic theory for hyperfinite $G$-expectations and prove an existence theorem for liftings of (continuous-time) $G$-expectation. For the proof of the lifting theorem, we use a new discretization theorem for the $G$-expectation (also established in this paper, based on the work of Dolinsky et al. [Weak approximation of $G$-expectations, Stoch. Proc. Appl. 122(2), (2012), pp.664--675]).

q-fin.MF

Ambiguity in defaultable term structure models

We introduce the concept of no-arbitrage in a credit risk market under ambiguity considering an intensity-based framework. We assume the default intensity is not exactly known but lies between an upper and lower bound. By means of the Girsanov theorem, we start from the reference measure where the intensity is equal to $1$ and construct the set of equivalent martingale measures. From this viewpoint, the credit risky case turns out to be similar to the case of drift uncertainty in the $G$-expectation framework. Finally, we derive the interval of no-arbitrage prices for general bond prices in a Markovian setting.

q-fin.MF