arXiv subjects

Tom Greene

Publications and source records attributed to Tom Greene.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Interpretational challenges of the Win Ratio in analyzing Hierarchical Composite Endpoints in Chronic Kidney Disease

Win statistics based methods have gained traction as a method for analyzing Hierarchical Composite Endpoints (HCEs) in randomized clinical trials, particularly in cardiovascular and kidney disease research. HCEs offer several key advantages, including increased statistical power, mitigation of competing risks, and hierarchical ranking of clinical outcomes. While, as summary measures, the win ratio (WR) along with the Net Benefit (NB) and the Win Odds (WO) provide a structured approach to analyzing HCEs, several concerns regarding their interpretability remain. In this paper, we present known issues with the WR using simple examples designed to explore the implications for the clinical interpretability of the treatment effect measure in the chronic kidney disease setting. Specifically, we discuss the challenge of defining an appropriate estimand in the context of HCEs using the WR, the difficulties in formulating a relevant causal question underlying the WR, and the dependency of the WR on the variance of its components, which complicates its role as an effect measure. Additionally, we highlight the non-collapsibility and non-transitivity of the WR, further complicating its interpretation. While the WR remains a valuable tool in clinical trials, its inherent limitations must be acknowledged to ensure its proper use in regulatory and clinical decision-making.

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arXiv2024

Semiparametric Joint Modeling to Estimate the Treatment Effect on a Longitudinal Surrogate with Application to Chronic Kidney Disease Trials

In clinical trials where long follow-up is required to measure the primary outcome of interest, there is substantial interest in using an accepted surrogate outcome that can be measured earlier in time or with less cost to estimate a treatment effect. For example, in clinical trials of chronic kidney disease (CKD), the effect of a treatment is often demonstrated on a surrogate outcome, the longitudinal trajectory of glomerular filtration rate (GFR). However, estimating the effect of a treatment on the GFR trajectory is complicated by the fact that GFR measurement can be terminated by the occurrence of a terminal event, such as death or kidney failure. Thus, to estimate this effect, one must consider both the longitudinal outcome of GFR, and the terminal event process. Available estimation methods either impose restrictive parametric assumptions with corresponding maximum likelihood estimation that is computationintensive or other assumptions not appropriate for the GFR setting. In this paper, we build a semiparametric framework to jointly model the longitudinal outcome and the terminal event, where the model for the longitudinal outcome is semiparametric, and the relationship between the longitudinal outcome and the terminal event is nonparametric. The proposed semiparametric joint model is flexible and can be extended to include nonlinear trajectory of the longitudinal outcome easily. An estimating equation based method is proposed to estimate the treatment effect on the slope of the longitudinal outcome (e.g., GFR slope). Theoretical properties of the proposed estimators are derived. Finite sample performance of the proposed method is evaluated through simulation studies. We illustrate the proposed method using data from the Reduction of Endpoints in NIDDM with the Angiotensin II Antagonist Losartan (RENAAL) trail to examine the effect of Losartan on GFR slope.

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arXiv2023

Recovering simulated planet and disk signals using SCALES aperture masking

The Slicer Combined with Array of Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy (SCALES) instrument is a lenslet-based integral field spectrograph that will operate at 2 to 5 microns, imaging and characterizing colder (and thus older) planets than current high-contrast instruments. Its spatial resolution for distant science targets and/or close-in disks and companions could be improved via interferometric techniques such as sparse aperture masking. We introduce a nascent Python package, NRM-artist, that we use to design several SCALES masks to be non-redundant and to have uniform coverage in Fourier space. We generate high-fidelity mock SCALES data using the scalessim package for SCALES' low spectral resolution modes across its 2 to 5 micron bandpass. We include realistic noise from astrophysical and instrument sources, including Keck adaptive optics and Poisson noise. We inject planet and disk signals into the mock datasets and subsequently recover them to test the performance of SCALES sparse aperture masking and to determine the sensitivity of various mask designs to different science signals.

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arXiv2023

Simulating medium-spectral-resolution exoplanet characterization with SCALES angular/reference differential imaging

SCALES (Slicer Combined with Array of Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy) is a 2 - 5 micron high-contrast lenslet-based integral field spectrograph (IFS) designed to characterize exoplanets and their atmospheres. The SCALES medium-spectral-resolution mode uses a lenslet subarray with a 0.34 x 0.36 arcsecond field of view which allows for exoplanet characterization at increased spectral resolution. We explore the sensitivity limitations of this mode by simulating planet detections in the presence of realistic noise sources. We use the SCALES simulator scalessim to generate high-fidelity mock observations of planets that include speckle noise from their host stars, as well as other atmospheric and instrumental noise effects. We employ both angular and reference differential imaging as methods of disentangling speckle noise from the injected planet signals. These simulations allow us to assess the feasibility of speckle deconvolution for SCALES medium resolution data, and to test whether one approach outperforms another based on planet angular separations and contrasts.

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arXiv2023

The Slicer Combined with Array of Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy (SCALES): driving science cases and expected outcomes

The Slicer Combined with Array of Lenslets for Exoplanet Spectroscopy (SCALES) is a $2-5~\mu$m, high-contrast integral field spectrograph (IFS) currently being built for Keck Observatory. With both low ($R\lesssim250$) and medium ($R\sim3500-7000$) spectral resolution IFS modes, SCALES will detect and characterize significantly colder exoplanets than those accessible with near-infrared ($\sim1-2~\mu$m) high-contrast spectrographs. This will lead to new progress in exoplanet atmospheric studies, including detailed characterization of benchmark systems that will advance the state of the art of atmospheric modeling. SCALES' unique modes, while designed specifically for direct exoplanet characterization, will enable a broader range of novel (exo)planetary observations as well as galactic and extragalactic studies. Here we present the science cases that drive the design of SCALES. We describe an end-to-end instrument simulator that we use to track requirements, and show simulations of expected science yields for each driving science case. We conclude with a discussion of preparations for early science when the instrument sees first light in $\sim2025$.

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arXiv2018

The Origins Space Telescope: Towards An Understanding of Temperate Planetary Atmospheres

The Origins Space Telescope (OST) is one of four mission concepts currently being studied by NASA in preparation for the Astrophysics 2020 Decadal Survey. With active cooling (~4 K), OST will be sensitive in mid- to far-IR wavelengths, using imaging and spectroscopy to probe the furthest reaches of our galaxies, trace the path of water through star and planet formation, and place thermochemical constraints on the atmospheres of exoplanets ranging in size from Jupiter to Earth. This contribution to the Exoplanet Science Strategy committee discusses the significant advancements that the OST Mid-Infrared Imager, Spectrometer, and Coronagraph (MISC) instrument can make in studying cool planetary atmospheres. We particularly focus on the atmospheres of transiting rocky planets in the habitable zones of mid-to-late M stars. We discuss how OST thermal infrared observations can significantly enhance our understanding of the temperature structure and molecular abundances of biologically interesting gases on these worlds, including O3, CH4, H2O, and CO2.

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arXiv2016

Two NIRCam channels are Better than One: How JWST Can Do More Science with NIRCam's Short-Wavelength Dispersed Hartmann Sensor

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) offers unprecedented sensitivity, stability, and wavelength coverage for transiting exoplanet studies, opening up new avenues for measuring atmospheric abundances, structure, and temperature profiles. Taking full advantage of JWST spectroscopy of planets from 0.6um to 28um, however, will require many observations with a combination of the NIRISS, NIRCam, NIRSpec, and MIRI instruments. In this white paper, we discuss a new NIRCam mode (not yet approved or implemented) that can reduce the number of necessary observations to cover the 1.0um to 5.0um wavelength range. Even though NIRCam was designed primarily as an imager, it also includes several grisms for phasing and aligning JWST's 18 hexagonal mirror segments. NIRCam's long-wavelength channel includes grisms that cover 2.4um to 5.0um with a resolving power of R = 1200 - 1550 using two separate configurations. The long-wavelength grisms have already been approved for science operations, including wide field and single object (time series) slitless spectroscopy. We propose a new mode that will simultaneously measure spectra for science targets in the 1.0um to 2.0um range using NIRCam's short-wavelength channel. This mode, if approved, would take advantage of NIRCam's Dispersed Hartmann Sensor (DHS), which produces 10 spatially separated spectra per source at R ~ 300. We discuss the added benefit of the DHS in constraining abundances in exoplanet atmospheres as well as its ability to observe the brightest systems. The DHS essentially comes for free (at no time cost) with any NIRCam long-wavelength grism observation, but the detector integration parameters have to be selected to ensure that the long-wavelength grism observations do not saturate and that JWST data volume downlink constraints are not violated.

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arXiv2016

Science Impacts of the SPHEREx All-Sky Optical to Near-Infrared Spectral Survey: Report of a Community Workshop Examining Extragalactic, Galactic, Stellar and Planetary Science

SPHEREx is a proposed SMEX mission selected for Phase A. SPHEREx will carry out the first all-sky spectral survey and provide for every 6.2" pixel a spectra between 0.75 and 4.18 $\mu$m [with R$\sim$41.4] and 4.18 and 5.00 $\mu$m [with R$\sim$135]. The SPHEREx team has proposed three specific science investigations to be carried out with this unique data set: cosmic inflation, interstellar and circumstellar ices, and the extra-galactic background light. It is readily apparent, however, that many other questions in astrophysics and planetary sciences could be addressed with the SPHEREx data. The SPHEREx team convened a community workshop in February 2016, with the intent of enlisting the aid of a larger group of scientists in defining these questions. This paper summarizes the rich and varied menu of investigations that was laid out. It includes studies of the composition of main belt and Trojan/Greek asteroids; mapping the zodiacal light with unprecedented spatial and spectral resolution; identifying and studying very low-metallicity stars; improving stellar parameters in order to better characterize transiting exoplanets; studying aliphatic and aromatic carbon-bearing molecules in the interstellar medium; mapping star formation rates in nearby galaxies; determining the redshift of clusters of galaxies; identifying high redshift quasars over the full sky; and providing a NIR spectrum for most eROSITA X-ray sources. All of these investigations, and others not listed here, can be carried out with the nominal all-sky spectra to be produced by SPHEREx. In addition, the workshop defined enhanced data products and user tools which would facilitate some of these scientific studies. Finally, the workshop noted the high degrees of synergy between SPHEREx and a number of other current or forthcoming programs, including JWST, WFIRST, Euclid, GAIA, K2/Kepler, TESS, eROSITA and LSST.

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arXiv2015

A nearby M star with three transiting super-Earths discovered by K2

Small, cool planets represent the typical end-products of planetary formation. Studying the archi- tectures of these systems, measuring planet masses and radii, and observing these planets' atmospheres during transit directly informs theories of planet assembly, migration, and evolution. Here we report the discovery of three small planets orbiting a bright (Ks = 8.6 mag) M0 dwarf using data collected as part of K2, the new transit survey using the re-purposed Kepler spacecraft. Stellar spectroscopy and K2 photometry indicate that the system hosts three transiting planets with radii 1.5-2.1 R_Earth, straddling the transition region between rocky and increasingly volatile-dominated compositions. With orbital periods of 10-45 days the planets receive just 1.5-10x the flux incident on Earth, making these some of the coolest small planets known orbiting a nearby star; planet d is located near the inner edge of the system's habitable zone. The bright, low-mass star makes this system an excellent laboratory to determine the planets' masses via Doppler spectroscopy and to constrain their atmospheric compositions via transit spectroscopy. This discovery demonstrates the ability of K2 and future space-based transit searches to find many fascinating objects of interest.

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arXiv2014

Observations of Transiting Exoplanets with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific (PASP), December 2014

This article summarizes a workshop held on March, 2014, on the potential of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to revolutionize our knowledge of the physical properties of exoplanets through transit observations. JWST's unique combination of high sensitivity and broad wavelength coverage will enable the accurate measurement of transits with high signal-to-noise. Most importantly, JWST spectroscopy will investigate planetary atmospheres to determine atomic and molecular compositions, to probe vertical and horizontal structure, and to follow dynamical evolution, i.e. exoplanet weather. JWST will sample a diverse population of planets of varying masses and densities in a wide variety of environments characterized by a range of host star masses and metallicities, orbital semi-major axes and eccentricities. A broad program of exoplanet science could use a substantial fraction of the overall JWST mission.

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arXiv2014

Water Clouds in Y Dwarfs and Exoplanets

The formation of clouds affects brown dwarf and planetary atmospheres of nearly all effective temperatures. Iron and silicate condense in L dwarf atmospheres and dissipate at the L/T transition. Minor species such as sulfides and salts condense in mid-late T dwarfs. For brown dwarfs below Teff=450 K, water condenses in the upper atmosphere to form ice clouds. Currently over a dozen objects in this temperature range have been discovered, and few previous theoretical studies have addressed the effect of water clouds on brown dwarf or exoplanetary spectra. Here we present a new grid of models that include the effect of water cloud opacity. We find that they become optically thick in objects below Teff=350-375 K. Unlike refractory cloud materials, water ice particles are significantly non-gray absorbers; they predominantly scatter at optical wavelengths through J band and absorb in the infrared with prominent features, the strongest of which is at 2.8 microns. H2O, NH3, CH4, and H2 CIA are dominant opacity sources; less abundant species such as may also be detectable, including the alkalis, H2S, and PH3. PH3, which has been detected in Jupiter, is expected to have a strong signature in the mid-infrared at 4.3 microns in Y dwarfs around Teff=450 K; if disequilibrium chemistry increases the abundance of PH3, it may be detectable over a wider effective temperature range than models predict. We show results incorporating disequilibrium nitrogen and carbon chemistry and predict signatures of low gravity in planetary- mass objects. Lastly, we make predictions for the observability of Y dwarfs and planets with existing and future instruments including the James Webb Space Telescope and Gemini Planet Imager.

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arXiv2013

NASA ExoPAG Study Analysis Group 5: Flagship Exoplanet Imaging Mission Science Goals and Requirements Report

The NASA Exoplanet Program Analysis Group (ExoPAG) has undertaken an effort to define mission Level 1 requirements for exoplanet direct detection missions at a range of sizes. This report outlines the science goals and requirements for the next exoplanet flagship imaging and spectroscopy mission as determined by the flagship mission Study Analysis Group (SAG) of the NASA Exoplanet Program Analysis Group (ExoPAG). We expect that these goals and requirements will be used to evaluate specific architectures for a future flagship exoplanet imaging and spectroscopy mission, and we expect this effort to serve as a guide and template for similar goals and requirements for smaller missions, an effort that we expect will begin soon. These goals and requirements were discussed, determined, and documented over a 1 year period with contributions from approximately 60 volunteer exoplanet scientists, technologists, and engineers. Numerous teleconferences, emails, and several in-person meetings were conducted to progress on this task, resulting in creating and improving drafts of mission science goals and requirements. That work has been documented in this report as a set of science goals, more detailed objectives, and specific requirements with deliberate flow-down and linkage between each of these sets. The specific requirements have been developed in two categories: "Musts" are nonnegotiable hard requirements, while "Discriminator" requirements assign value to performance in areas beyond the floor values set by the "Musts." We believe that this framework and content will ensure that this report will be valuable when applied to future mission evaluation activities. We envision that any future exoplanet imaging flagship mission must also be capable of conducting a broad range of other observational astrophysics. We expect that this will be done by the NASA Cosmic Origins Program Analysis Group (COPAG).

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arXiv2010

Thermal Emission and Tidal Heating of the Heavy and Eccentric Planet XO-3b

We determined the flux ratios of the heavy and eccentric planet XO-3b to its parent star in the four IRAC bands of the Spitzer Space Telescope: 0.101% +- 0.004% at 3.6 micron; 0.143% +- 0.006% at 4.5 micron; 0.134% +- 0.049% at 5.8 micron and 0.150% +- 0.036% at 8.0 micron. The flux ratios are within [-2.2,0.3, -0.8, -1.7]-sigma of the model of XO-3b with a thermally inverted stratosphere in the 3.6 micron, 4.5 micron, 5.8 micron and 8.0 micron channels, respectively. XO-3b has a high illumination from its parent star (Fp ~(1.9 - 4.2) x 10^9 ergs cm^-2 s^-1) and is thus expected to have a thermal inversion, which we indeed observe. When combined with existing data for other planets, the correlation between the presence of an atmospheric temperature inversion and the substellar flux is insufficient to explain why some high insolation planets like TrES-3 do not have stratospheric inversions and some low insolation planets like XO-1b do have inversions. Secondary factors such as sulfur chemistry, atmospheric metallicity, amounts of macroscopic mixing in the stratosphere or even dynamical weather effects likely play a role. Using the secondary eclipse timing centroids we determined the orbital eccentricity of XO-3b as e = 0.277 +- 0.009. The model radius-age trajectories for XO-3b imply that at least some amount of tidal-heating is required to inflate the radius of XO-3b, and the tidal heating parameter of the planet is constrained to Qp < 10^6 .

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arXiv2009

Discovering and Characterizing the Planetary Systems of Nearby Stars: The scientific need for medium aperture space coronagraph observations

Significant advances in the discovery and characterization of the planetary systems of nearby stars can be accomplished with a moderate aperture high performance coronagraphic space mission that could be started in the next decade. Its observations would make significant progress in studying terrestrial planets in their habitable zones to giant planets and circumstellar debris disks, also informing the design of a more capable future mission. It is quite exciting that such fundamental exoplanet science can be done with relatively modest capabilities.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2008

High Resolution Near-Infrared Spectroscopy of FUors and FUor-like stars

We present new high resolution (R=18,000) near-infrared spectroscopic observations of a sample of classical FU Orionis stars (FUors) and other young stars with FUor characteristics that are sources of Herbig-Haro flows. Spectra are presented for the region 2.203 - 2.236 microns which is rich in absorption lines sensitive to both effective temperatures and surface gravities of stars. Both FUors and FUor-like stars show numerous broad and weak unidentified spectral features in this region. Spectra of the 2.280 - 2.300 micron region are also presented, with the 2.2935 micron v=2-0 CO absorption bandhead being clearly the strongest feature seen in the spectra all FUors and Fuor-like stars. A cross-correlation analysis shows that FUor and FUor-like spectra in the 2.203 - 2.236 micron region are not consistent with late-type dwarfs, giants, nor embedded protostars. The cross-correlations also show that the observed FUor-like Herbig-Haro energy sources have spectra that are substantively similar to those of FUors. Both object groups also have similar near-infrared colors. The large line widths and double-peaked nature of the spectra of the FUor-like stars are consistent with the established accretion disk model for FUors, also consistent with their near-infrared colors. It appears that young stars with FUor-like characteristics may be more common than projected from the relatively few known classical FUors.

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