arXiv subjects

Tom Savage

Publications and source records attributed to Tom Savage.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Human-Algorithm Collaborative Bayesian Optimization for Engineering Systems

Bayesian optimization has been successfully applied throughout Chemical Engineering for the optimization of functions that are expensive-to-evaluate, or where gradients are not easily obtainable. However, domain experts often possess valuable physical insights that are overlooked in fully automated decision-making approaches, necessitating the inclusion of human input. In this article we re-introduce the human back into the data-driven decision making loop by outlining an approach for collaborative Bayesian optimization. Our methodology exploits the hypothesis that humans are more efficient at making discrete choices rather than continuous ones and enables experts to influence critical early decisions. We apply high-throughput (batch) Bayesian optimization alongside discrete decision theory to enable domain experts to influence the selection of experiments. At every iteration we apply a multi-objective approach that results in a set of alternate solutions that have both high utility and are reasonably distinct. The expert then selects the desired solution for evaluation from this set, allowing for the inclusion of expert knowledge and improving accountability, whilst maintaining the advantages of Bayesian optimization. We demonstrate our approach across a number of applied and numerical case studies including bioprocess optimization and reactor geometry design, demonstrating that even in the case of an uninformed practitioner our algorithm recovers the regret of standard Bayesian optimization. Through the inclusion of continuous expert opinion, our approach enables faster convergence, and improved accountability for Bayesian optimization in engineering systems.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2023

Expert-guided Bayesian Optimisation for Human-in-the-loop Experimental Design of Known Systems

Domain experts often possess valuable physical insights that are overlooked in fully automated decision-making processes such as Bayesian optimisation. In this article we apply high-throughput (batch) Bayesian optimisation alongside anthropological decision theory to enable domain experts to influence the selection of optimal experiments. Our methodology exploits the hypothesis that humans are better at making discrete choices than continuous ones and enables experts to influence critical early decisions. At each iteration we solve an augmented multi-objective optimisation problem across a number of alternate solutions, maximising both the sum of their utility function values and the determinant of their covariance matrix, equivalent to their total variability. By taking the solution at the knee point of the Pareto front, we return a set of alternate solutions at each iteration that have both high utility values and are reasonably distinct, from which the expert selects one for evaluation. We demonstrate that even in the case of an uninformed practitioner, our algorithm recovers the regret of standard Bayesian optimisation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Machine Learning-Assisted Discovery of Flow Reactor Designs

Additive manufacturing has enabled the fabrication of advanced reactor geometries, permitting larger, more complex design spaces. Identifying promising configurations within such spaces presents a significant challenge for current approaches. Furthermore, existing parameterisations of reactor geometries are low-dimensional with expensive optimisation limiting more complex solutions. To address this challenge, we establish a machine learning-assisted approach for the design of the next-generation of chemical reactors, combining the application of high-dimensional parameterisations, computational fluid dynamics, and multi-fidelity Bayesian optimisation. We associate the development of mixing-enhancing vortical flow structures in novel coiled reactors with performance, and use our approach to identify key characteristics of optimal designs. By appealing to the principles of flow dynamics, we rationalise the selection of novel design features that lead to experimental plug flow performance improvements of 60% over conventional designs. Our results demonstrate that coupling advanced manufacturing techniques with `augmented-intelligence' approaches can lead to superior design performance and, consequently, emissions-reduction and sustainability.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2023

Multi-Fidelity Data-Driven Design and Analysis of Reactor and Tube Simulations

The development of new manufacturing techniques such as 3D printing have enabled the creation of previously infeasible chemical reactor designs. Systematically optimizing the highly parameterized geometries involved in these new classes of reactor is vital to ensure enhanced mixing characteristics and feasible manufacturability. Here we present a framework to rapidly solve this nonlinear, computationally expensive, and derivative-free problem, enabling the fast prototype of novel reactor parameterizations. We take advantage of Gaussian processes to adaptively learn a multi-fidelity model of reactor simulations across a number of different continuous mesh fidelities. The search space of reactor geometries is explored through an amalgam of different, potentially lower, fidelity simulations which are chosen for evaluation based on weighted acquisition function, trading off information gain with cost of simulation. Within our framework we derive a novel criteria for monitoring the progress and dictating the termination of multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization, ensuring a high fidelity solution is returned before experimental budget is exhausted. The class of reactor we investigate are helical-tube reactors under pulsed-flow conditions, which have demonstrated outstanding mixing characteristics, have the potential to be highly parameterized, and are easily manufactured using 3D printing. To validate our results, we 3D print and experimentally validate the optimal reactor geometry, confirming its mixing performance. In doing so we demonstrate our design framework to be extensible to a broad variety of expensive simulation-based optimization problems, supporting the design of the next generation of highly parameterized chemical reactors.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2023

Robust Market Potential Assessment: Designing optimal policies for low-carbon technology adoption in an increasingly uncertain world

Increasing the adoption of alternative technologies is vital to ensure a successful transition to net-zero emissions in the manufacturing sector. Yet there is no model to analyse technology adoption and the impact of policy interventions in generating sufficient demand to reduce cost. Such a model is vital for assessing policy-instruments for the implementation of future energy scenarios. The design of successful policies for technology uptake becomes increasingly difficult when associated market forces/factors are uncertain, such as energy prices or technology efficiencies. In this paper we formulate a novel robust market potential assessment problem under uncertainty, resulting in policies that are immune to uncertain factors. We demonstrate two case studies: the potential use of carbon capture and storage for iron and steel production across the EU, and the transition to hydrogen from natural gas in steam boilers across the chemicals industry in the UK. Each robust optimisation problem is solved using an iterative cutting planes algorithm which enables existing models to be solved under uncertainty. By taking advantage of parallelisation we are able to solve the nonlinear robust market assessment problem for technology adoption in times within the same order of magnitude as the nominal problem. Policy makers often wish to trade-off certainty with effectiveness of a solution. Therefore, we apply an approximation to chance constraints, varying the amount of uncertainty to locate less certain but more effective solutions. Our results demonstrate the possibility of locating robust policies for the implementation of low-carbon technologies, as well as providing direct insights for policy-makers into the decrease in policy effectiveness resulting from increasing robustness. The approach we present is extensible to a large number of policy design and alternative technology adoption problems.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Deep Gaussian Process-based Multi-fidelity Bayesian Optimization for Simulated Chemical Reactors

New manufacturing techniques such as 3D printing have recently enabled the creation of previously infeasible chemical reactor designs. Optimizing the geometry of the next generation of chemical reactors is important to understand the underlying physics and to ensure reactor feasibility in the real world. This optimization problem is computationally expensive, nonlinear, and derivative-free making it challenging to solve. In this work, we apply deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) to model multi-fidelity coiled-tube reactor simulations in a Bayesian optimization setting. By applying a multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization method, the search space of reactor geometries is explored through an amalgam of different fidelity simulations which are chosen based on prediction uncertainty and simulation cost, maximizing the use of computational budget. The use of DGPs provides an end-to-end model for five discrete mesh fidelities, enabling less computational effort to gain good solutions during optimization. The accuracy of simulations for these five fidelities is determined against experimental data obtained from a 3D printed reactor configuration, providing insights into appropriate hyper-parameters. We hope this work provides interesting insight into the practical use of DGP-based multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization for engineering discovery.

cs.CE↗