arXiv subjects

Tomas Valencia Zuluaga

Publications and source records attributed to Tomas Valencia Zuluaga.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

High-Fidelity Capacity Expansion Planning for Puerto Rico's Electric Power System

This study presents a mathematical optimization framework and analysis to inform practical long-term investment planning in Puerto Rico's electric power system. We utilize a high-resolution capacity expansion planning model to identify least-cost generation and storage investments that improve reliability. The model co-optimizes new investments with thermal retirements and includes detailed dispatch, unit commitment, fuel selection, storage operation, engineering limits, system constraints, fuel supply limits, and load balance. Key advances over prior studies on Puerto Rico's system include: (i) Nodal transmission representation at 38 kV and above; (ii) hourly chronological simulation for representative days; (iii) explicit unit commitment for existing and new thermal units with realistic ramping, minimum up and down times, and startup costs; (iv) system-wide fuel supply constraints; and (v) operational scenarios reflecting load variability, renewable availability, and high forced outage rates in legacy units. Using data from LUMA, the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA), U.S. Department of Energy, and public sources, the study builds representative Puerto Rico systems for 2024 and 2030, with the latter including planned generation and storage projects. It tests scenarios with different future load levels, fuel supply assumptions, planned additions, and allowed technologies. Under the study assumptions, least-cost portfolios that meet reliability targets require about 1.5 GW or more of new H-class combined cycle capacity, in addition to planned projects. These additions mainly replace unreliable legacy thermal units rather than serve new load. The new CC investments eliminate modeled load shedding in the bulk system and restore a robust reserve margin, even under stressed load and outage conditions.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Nodal Capacity Expansion Planning with Flexible Large-Scale Load Siting

We propose explicitly incorporating large-scale load siting into a stochastic nodal power system capacity expansion planning model that concurrently co-optimizes generation, transmission and storage expansion. The potential operational flexibility of some of these large loads is also taken into account by considering them as consisting of a set of tranches with different reliability requirements, which are modeled as a constraint on expected served energy across operational scenarios. We implement our model as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer optimization problem with cross-scenario expectation constraints. To overcome the challenge of scalability, we build upon existing work to implement this model on a high performance computing platform and exploit scenario parallelization using an augmented Progressive Hedging Algorithm. The algorithm is implemented using the bounding features of mpisppy, which have shown to provide satisfactory provable optimality gaps despite the absence of theoretical guarantees of convergence. We test our approach to assess the value of this proactive planning framework on total system cost and reliability metrics using realistic testcases geographically assigned to San Diego and South Carolina, with datacenter and direct air capture facilities as large loads.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Sizing Co-located Storage for Uncertain Renewable Energy Sold Through Forward Contracts

In this paper, we propose a high-level Stochastic steady-state model to analyze the value of co-located energy storage systems for wind power producers that participate in an electricity market through Forward or Day Ahead contracts. In particular, we try to find optimal sizing and contracting and stationary operating policies for profit maximization in the long-run. We obtain a stylized model calibrated to actual wind power production and electricity wholesale price data that allows us to asses the value of storage size and perform sensitivity analysis on key parameters such as contract prices, storage cost and storage efficiency.

eess.SY↗