arXiv subjects

Tomislav Smuc

Publications and source records attributed to Tomislav Smuc.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2015

Identification of Patient Zero in Static and Temporal Networks - Robustness and Limitations

Detection of patient-zero can give new insights to the epidemiologists about the nature of first transmissions into a population. In this paper, we study the statistical inference problem of detecting the source of epidemics from a snapshot of spreading on an arbitrary network structure. By using exact analytic calculations and Monte Carlo estimators, we demonstrate the detectability limits for the SIR model, which primarily depend on the spreading process characteristics. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the approach in a case of a simulated sexually transmitted infection spreading over an empirical temporal network of sexual interactions.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Synthetic sequence generator for recommender systems - memory biased random walk on sequence multilayer network

Personalized recommender systems rely on each user's personal usage data in the system, in order to assist in decision making. However, privacy policies protecting users' rights prevent these highly personal data from being publicly available to a wider researcher audience. In this work, we propose a memory biased random walk model on multilayer sequence network, as a generator of synthetic sequential data for recommender systems. We demonstrate the applicability of the synthetic data in training recommender system models for cases when privacy policies restrict clickstream publishing.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2013

Statistical inference framework for source detection of contagion processes on arbitrary network structures

In this paper we introduce a statistical inference framework for estimating the contagion source from a partially observed contagion spreading process on an arbitrary network structure. The framework is based on a maximum likelihood estimation of a partial epidemic realization and involves large scale simulation of contagion spreading processes from the set of potential source locations. We present a number of different likelihood estimators that are used to determine the conditional probabilities associated to observing partial epidemic realization with particular source location candidates. This statistical inference framework is also applicable for arbitrary compartment contagion spreading processes on networks. We compare estimation accuracy of these approaches in a number of computational experiments performed with the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered), SI (susceptible-infected) and ISS (ignorant-spreading-stifler) contagion spreading models on synthetic and real-world complex networks.

cs.SI↗