arXiv subjects

Tommaso Alberti

Publications and source records attributed to Tommaso Alberti.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Evidence for an Inverse Cascade of Magnetic Helicity in the Inner Heliosphere

To elucidate the cascade direction of the solar wind turbulence, we analyzed magnetic helicity density spectra from the Parker Solar Probe data across more than 500 heliocentric distances. For the first time, we confirmed a persistent inverse cascade extending from the Sun to Mercury's orbital vicinity. This finding challenges the conventional hypothesis that the magnetic helicity density within the inner heliosphere is random. Furthermore, our analysis revealed a radial sign change of the spectral magnetic helicity density at a frequency whose value decreases logarithmically with distance. These results provide new insights into the evolution of solar wind turbulence in the inner heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

A statistical physics and dynamical systems perspective on geophysical extreme events

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these events, they all originate as temporary deviations from the typical trajectories of a geophysical system, resulting in well-organised, coherent structures at characteristic spatial and temporal scales. While statistical extreme value analysis techniques are capable to provide return times and probabilities of occurrence of certain geophysical events, they are not apt to account for their underlying physics. Their focus is to compute the probability of occurrence of events that are large or small with respect to some specific observable (e.g. temperature, precipitation, solar wind), rather than to relate rare or extreme phenomena to the underlying anomalous geophysical regimes. This paper outlines this knowledge gap, presenting some related challenges, new formalisms and briefly commenting on how stochastic approaches tailored to the study of extreme geophysical events can help to advance their understanding.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Disentangling the solar activity-solar wind predictive causality at Space Climate scales

The variability in the magnetic activity of the Sun is the main source of the observed changes in the plasma and electromagnetic environments within the heliosphere. The primary way in which solar activity affects the Earth's environment is via the solar wind and its transients. However, the relationship between solar activity and solar wind is not the same at the Space Weather and Space Climate time scales. In this work, we investigate this relationship exploiting five solar cycles data of Ca II K index and solar wind parameters, by taking advantage of the Hilbert-Huang Transform, which allows to separate the contribution at the different time scales. By filtering out the high frequency components and looking at decennial time scales, we confirm the presence of a delayed response of solar wind to Ca II K index variations, with a time lag of ~ 3.1-year for the speed and ~ 3.4-year for the dynamic pressure. To assess the results in a stronger framework, we make use of a Transfer Entropy approach to investigate the information flow between the quantities and to test the causality of the relation. The time lag results from the latter are consistent with the cross-correlation ones, pointing out the presence of a statistical significant information flow from Ca II K index to solar wind dynamic pressure that peaks at time lag of 3.6-year. Such a result could be of relevance to build up a predictive model in a Space Climate context.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Dimensional analysis identifies contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions

While one can unequivocally identify past climate transitions, we lack comprehensive knowledge about their underlying mechanisms and timescales. Our study employs a dimensional analysis of benthic stable isotope records to uncover, across different timescales, how the climatic fluctuation of the Cenozoic are associated with changes in the number of effective degrees of freedom. Precession timescales dominate the Hothouse and Warmhouse states, while the Icehouse climate is primarily influenced by obliquity and eccentricity timescales. Notably, the Coolhouse state lacks dominant timescales. Our analysis proves effective in objectively identifying abrupt climate shifts and extremes. This is also demonstrated using high-resolution data from the last glacial cycle, revealing abrupt climate shifts within a single climate state. These findings significantly impact our understanding of the inherent stability of each climate state and the evaluation of (paleo-)climate models' ability to replicate key features of past/future climate states and transitions.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

Linking Langevin equation to scaling properties of space plasma turbulence at sub-ion scales

Current understanding of the kinetic-scale turbulence in weakly-collisional plasmas still remains elusive. We employ a general framework in which the turbulent energy transfer is envisioned as a scale-to-scale Langevin process. Fluctuations in the sub-ion range show a global scale invariance, thus suggesting a homogeneous energy repartition. In this Letter, we interpret such a feature by linking the drift term of the Langevin equation to scaling properties of fluctuations. Theoretical expectations are verified on solar wind observations and numerical simulations thus giving relevance to the proposed framework for understanding kinetic-scale turbulence in space plasmas.

physics.plasm-ph↗

arXiv2023

The exoplanetary magnetosphere extension in Sun-like stars based on the solar wind -- solar UV relation

The Earth's magnetosphere extension is controlled by the solar activity level via solar wind properties. Understanding such a relation in the Solar System is important for predicting also the condition of exoplanetary magnetospheres near Sun-like stars. We use measurements of a chromospheric proxy, the Ca II K index, and solar wind OMNI parameters to connect the solar activity variations, on the decennial time scales, to the solar wind properties. The data span over the time interval 1965-2021, which almost entirely covers the last 5 solar cycles. Using both cross-correlation and mutual information analysis, a 3.2-year lag of the solar wind speed with respect to the Ca II K index is found. Analogously, a 3.6-year lag is found once considering the dynamic pressure. A correlation between the solar wind dynamic pressure and the solar UV emission is found and used to derive the Earth's magnetopause standoff distance. Moreover, the advantage of using a chromospheric proxy, such as the Ca II K index, opens the possibility to extend the relation found for the Sun to Sun-like stars, by linking stellar variability to stellar wind properties. The model is applied to a sample of Sun-like stars as a case study, where we assume the presence of an Earth-like exoplanet at 1 AU. Finally, we compare our results with previous estimates of the magnetosphere extension for the same set of Sun-like stars.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Kramers-Moyal analysis of interplanetary magnetic field fluctuations at sub-ion scales

In the framework of statistical time series analysis of complex dynamics we present a multiscale characterization of solar wind turbulence in the near-Earth environment. The data analysis, based on the Markov-process theory, is meant to estimate the Kramers-Moyal coefficients associated with the measured magnetic field fluctuations. In fact, when the scale-to-scale dynamics can be successfully described as a Markov process, first- and second-order Kramers-Moyal coefficients provide a complete description of the dynamics in terms of Langevin stochastic process. The analysis is carried out by using high-resolution magnetic field measurements gathered by Cluster during a fast solar wind period on January 20, 2007. This analysis extends recent findings in the near-Sun environment with the aim of testing the universality of the Markovian nature of the magnetic field fluctuations in the sub-ion/kinetic domain.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2022

Markov property of the Super-MAG Auroral Electrojet Indices

The dynamics of the Earth's magnetosphere exhibits strongly fluctuating patterns as well as non-stationary and non-linear interactions, more pronounced during magnetospheric substorms and magnetic storms. This complex dynamics comprises both stochastic and deterministic features occurring at different time scales. Here we investigate the stochastic nature of the magnetospheric substorm dynamics by analysing the Markovian character of SuperMAG SME and SML geomagnetic indices. By performing the Chapman-Kolmogorov test, the SME/SML dynamics appears to satisfy the Markov condition at scales below 60 minutes. The Kramers-Moyal analysis instead highlights that a purely diffusive process is not representative of the magnetospheric dynamics, thus a model that includes both diffusion and Poisson-jump processes is used to reproduce the SME dynamical features at small scales. A discussion of the similarities and differences between this model and the SME properties is provided with a special emphasis on the metastability of the Earth's magnetospheric dynamics. Finally, the relevance of our results in the framework of Space Weather is also addressed.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2022

Chameleon attractors in a turbulent flow

Turbulent flows present rich dynamics originating from non-trivial energy fluxes across scales, non-stationary forcings and geometrical constraints. This complexity manifests in non-hyperbolic chaos, randomness, state-dependent persistence and unpredictability. All these features have prevented a full characterization of the underlying turbulent (stochastic) attractor, which will be the key object to unpin this complexity. Here we propose a novel formalism to trace the evolution of the structural characteristics of phase-space trajectories across scales, providing a full characterization of the attractor. We demonstrate that the properties of the dynamically invariant objects depend on the scale we are focusing on. In the case of laboratory experiments on fluids we observe the emergence of an intrinsic timescale, solely determined by nonlinear interactions, controlling the geometrical and topological properties of phase-space trajectories. Given the changing nature of such attractors in time and scales we term them chameleon attractors.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2022

Reconciling Parker Solar Probe observations and magnetohydrodynamic theory

The Parker Solar Probe mission provides a unique opportunity to characterize several features of the solar wind at different heliocentric distances. Recent findings have shown a transition in the inertial range spectral and scaling properties around 0.4-0.5 au when moving away from the Sun. Here we provide, for the first time, how to reconcile these observational results on the radial evolution of the magnetic and velocity field fluctuations with two scenarios drawn from the magnetohydrodynamic theory. The observed breakdown is the result of the radial evolution of magnetic field fluctuations and plasma thermal expansion affecting the distribution between magnetic and velocity fluctuations. The two scenarios point towards an evolving nature of the coupling between fields that can be also reconciled with Kraichnan and Kolmogorov pictures of turbulence. Our findings have important implications for turbulence studies and modeling approaches.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Dynamical information flow within the magnetosphere-ionosphere system during magnetic storms

The direct role of successive intense magnetospheric substorms in injecting/energizing particles into the storm-time ring current is still debated and controversial. Whereas in the recent past it has been observed the absence of a net information flow between magnetic storms and substorms, previous in-situ satellite observations have evidenced that ionospheric-origin ions dominate the population of the ring current during the main phase of geomagnetic storms. As a matter of fact, the controversy arises mainly by the use of sophisticated data-driven techniques somewhat contradicting in-situ measurements. In this framework, the main aim of this work is to attempt an adaption of the powerful information-theoretic approach, i.e., the transfer entropy, in a consistent way with physics modeling and observations and to explore the possible motivations behind the underlying contradictions that emerge when these techniques are used. Our idea is to characterize the dynamics of the information flow within the magnetosphere-ionosphere system using a database of geomagnetic storms instead of considering a long time series of geomagnetic indices. This allows us to consider local non-stationary features of the information flow and, most importantly, to follow the transition from quiet to disturbed periods and vice-versa.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2022

A novel concept of fractal dimension in deterministic and stochastic Lorenz-63 systems

Many natural systems show emergent phenomena at different scales, leading to scaling regimes with signatures of chaos at large scales and an apparently random behavior at small scales. These features are usually investigated quantitatively by studying the properties of the underlying attractor, the compact object asymptotically hosting the trajectories of the system with their invariant density in the phase-space. This multi-scale nature of natural systems makes it practically impossible to get a clear picture of the attracting set as it spans over a wide range of spatial scales and may even change in time due to non-stationary forcing. Here we combine an adaptive decomposition method with extreme value theory to study the properties of the instantaneous scale-dependent dimension, which has been recently introduced to characterize such temporal and spatial scale-dependent attractors in turbulence and astrophysics. To provide a quantitative analysis of the properties of this metric, we test it on the well-known low-dimensional deterministic Lorenz-63 system perturbed with additive or multiplicative noise. We demonstrate that the properties of the invariant set depend on the scale we are focusing on and that the scale-dependent dimensions can discriminate between additive and multiplicative noise, despite the fact that the two cases exhibit very similar stochastic attractors at large scales. The proposed formalism can be generally helpful to investigate the role of multi-scale fluctuations within complex systems, allowing us to deal with the problem of characterizing the role of stochastic fluctuations across a wide range of physical systems.

nlin.CD↗

arXiv2022

Markovian Features of the Solar Wind at Sub-Proton Scales

The interplanetary magnetic field carried out from the Sun by the solar wind displays fluctuations on a wide range of scales. While at large scales, say at frequencies lower than 0.1-1 Hz, fluctuations display clear universal characteristics of fully developed turbulence with a well defined Kolmogorov's like inertial range, the physical and dynamical properties of the small-scale regime as well as their connection with the large-scale ones are still a debated topic. In this work we investigate the near-Sun magnetic field fluctuations at sub-proton scales by analyzing the Markov property of fluctuations and recovering basic information about the nature of the energy transfer across different scales. By evaluating the Kramers-Moyal coefficients we find that fluctuations in the sub-proton range are well described as a Markovian process with Probability Density Functions (PDFs) modeled via a Fokker-Planck (FP) equation. Furthermore, we show that the shape of the PDFs is globally scale-invariant and similar to the one recovered for the stationary solution of the FP equation at different scales. The relevance of our results on the Markovian character of sub-proton scale fluctuations is also discussed in connection with the occurrence of turbulence in this domain.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2021

Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: the AstraZeneca case for France and Italy

Several European countries have suspended the inoculation of the AstraZeneca vaccine out of suspicion of causing deep vein thrombosis. In this letter we report some Fermi estimates performed using a stochastic model aimed at making a risk-benefit analysis of the interruption of the delivery of the AstraZeneca vaccine in France and Italy. Our results clearly show that excess deaths due to the interruption of the vaccination campaign injections largely overrun those due to thrombosis even in worst case scenarios of frequency and gravity of the vaccine side effects.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Modelling the second wave of COVID-19 infections in France and Italy via a Stochastic SEIR model

COVID-19 has forced quarantine measures in several countries across the world. These measures have proven to be effective in significantly reducing the prevalence of the virus. To date, no effective treatment or vaccine is available. In the effort of preserving both public health as well as the economical and social textures, France and Italy governments have partially released lockdown measures. Here we extrapolate the long-term behavior of the epidemics in both countries using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model where parameters are stochastically perturbed to handle the uncertainty in the estimates of COVID-19 prevalence. Our results suggest that uncertainties in both parameters and initial conditions rapidly propagate in the model and can result in different outcomes of the epidemics leading or not to a second wave of infections. Using actual knowledge, asymptotic estimates of COVID-19 prevalence can fluctuate of order of ten millions units in both countries.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

On the Scaling Properties of Magnetic Field Fluctuations Through the Inner Heliosphere

Although the interplanetary magnetic field variability has been extensively investigated in situ by means of data coming from several space missions, the newly launched missions providing high-resolution measures and approaching the Sun, offer the possibility to study the multiscale variability in the innermost solar system. Here by means of the Parker Solar Probe measurements we investigate the scaling properties of solar wind magnetic field fluctuations at different heliocentric distances. The results show a clear transition at distances close to say 0.4 au. Closer to the Sun fluctuations show a f^-3/2 frequency power spectra and regular scaling properties, while for distances larger than 0.4 au fluctuations show a Kolmogorov spectrum f^-5/3 and are characterized by anomalous scalings. The observed statistical properties of turbulence suggests that the solar wind magnetic fluctuations, in the late stage far form the Sun, show a multifractal behaviour typical of turbulence and described through intermittency, while in the early stage, when leaving the solar corona, a breakdown of these properties are observed, thus showing a statistical monofractal global self-similarity. Physically the breakdown observed close to the Sun should be due either to a turbulence with regular statistics or to the presence of intense stochastic fluctuations able to cancel out correlations necessary for the presence of anomalous scaling.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2020

On the uncertainty of real-time predictions of epidemic growths: a COVID-19 case study for China and Italy

While COVID-19 is rapidly propagating around the globe, the need for providing real-time forecasts of the epidemics pushes fits of dynamical and statistical models to available data beyond their capabilities. Here we focus on statistical predictions of COVID-19 infections performed by fitting asymptotic distributions to actual data. By taking as a case-study the epidemic evolution of total COVID-19 infections in Chinese provinces and Italian regions, we find that predictions are characterized by large uncertainties at the early stages of the epidemic growth. Those uncertainties significantly reduce after the epidemics peak is reached. Differences in the uncertainty of the forecasts at a regional level can be used to highlight the delay in the spread of the virus. Our results warn that long term extrapolation of epidemics counts must be handled with extreme care as they crucially depend not only on the quality of data, but also on the stage of the epidemics, due to the intrinsically non-linear nature of the underlying dynamics. These results suggest that real-time epidemiological projections should include wide uncertainty ranges and urge for the needs of compiling high-quality datasets of infections counts, including asymptomatic patients.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

Effect of vegetation on the temperatures of Trappist-1 planets

TRAPPIST-1 is an ultra-cool dwarf hosting a system consisting of seven planets. While orbital properties, radii and masses of the planets are nowadays well constrained, one of the open fascinating issues is the possibility that an environment hospitable to life could develop on some of these planets. Here we use a simple formulation of an energy balance model that includes the vegetation coverage to investigate the possibility of life affecting the climate of the planets in the TRAPPIST-1 system. Results confirm that planet T-e has the best chance for a habitable world and indicate that vegetation coverage significantly affects the resulting temperatures and habitability properties. The influence of vegetation has been evaluated in different scenarios characterized by different vegetation types, land-sea distributions and levels of greenhouse effect. While changes in vegetation type produce small changes, about $0.1\%$, in the habitable surface fraction, different land-sea distributions, by also affecting the vegetation growth, produce different temperature distributions. Finally at latitudes where vegetation grows, the lowering of local albedo still represents a relevant contribution in settling the planetary temperature profiles even when levels of greenhouse effect higher than the Earth-like case are considered.

astro-ph.EP↗