arXiv subjects

Tommaso Nesti

Publications and source records attributed to Tommaso Nesti.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

VLP: Vision Language Planning for Autonomous Driving

Autonomous driving is a complex and challenging task that aims at safe motion planning through scene understanding and reasoning. While vision-only autonomous driving methods have recently achieved notable performance, through enhanced scene understanding, several key issues, including lack of reasoning, low generalization performance and long-tail scenarios, still need to be addressed. In this paper, we present VLP, a novel Vision-Language-Planning framework that exploits language models to bridge the gap between linguistic understanding and autonomous driving. VLP enhances autonomous driving systems by strengthening both the source memory foundation and the self-driving car's contextual understanding. VLP achieves state-of-the-art end-to-end planning performance on the challenging NuScenes dataset by achieving 35.9\% and 60.5\% reduction in terms of average L2 error and collision rates, respectively, compared to the previous best method. Moreover, VLP shows improved performance in challenging long-tail scenarios and strong generalization capabilities when faced with new urban environments.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Emergence of scale-free blackout sizes in power grids

We model power grids as graphs with heavy-tailed sinks, which represent demand from cities, and study cascading failures on such graphs. Our analysis links the scale-free nature of blackout sizes to the scale-free nature of city sizes, contrasting previous studies suggesting that this nature is governed by self-organized criticality. Our results are based on a new mathematical framework combining the physics of power flow with rare event analysis for heavy-tailed distributions, and are validated using various synthetic networks and the German transmission grid.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Large Fluctuations in Locational Marginal Prices

This paper investigates large fluctuations of Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) in wholesale energy markets caused by volatile renewable generation profiles. Specifically, we study events of the form $\mathbb{P} \Big ( \mathbf{LMP} \notin \prod_{i=1}^n [α_i^-, α_i^+] \Big),$ where $\mathbf{LMP}$ is the vector of LMPs at the $n$ power grid nodes, and $\boldsymbolα^-,\boldsymbolα^+\in\mathbb{R}^n$ are vectors of price thresholds specifying undesirable price occurrences. By exploiting the structure of the supply-demand matching mechanism in power grids, we look at LMPs as deterministic piecewise affine, possibly discontinuous functions of the stochastic input process, modeling uncontrollable renewable generation. We utilize techniques from large deviations theory to identify the most likely ways for extreme price spikes to happen, and to rank the nodes of the power grid in terms of their likelihood of experiencing a price spike. Our results are derived in the case of Gaussian fluctuations and are validated numerically on the IEEE 14-bus test case.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

A Holistic Approach to Forecasting Wholesale Energy Market Prices

Electricity market price predictions enable energy market participants to shape their consumption or supply while meeting their economic and environmental objectives. By utilizing the basic properties of the supply-demand matching process performed by grid operators, known as Optimal Power Flow (OPF), we develop a methodology to recover energy market's structure and predict the resulting nodal prices by using only publicly available data, specifically grid-wide generation type mix, system load, and historical prices. Our methodology uses the latest advancements in statistical learning to cope with high dimensional and sparse real power grid topologies, as well as scarce, public market data, while exploiting structural characteristics of the underlying OPF mechanism. Rigorous validations using the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) market data reveal a strong correlation between the grid level mix and corresponding market prices, resulting in accurate day-ahead predictions of real time prices. The proposed approach demonstrates remarkable proximity to the state-of-the-art industry benchmark while assuming a fully decentralized, market-participant perspective. Finally, we recognize the limitations of the proposed and other evaluated methodologies in predicting large price spike values.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2019

Temperature Overloads in Power Grids Under Uncertainty: a Large Deviations Approach

The advent of renewable energy has huge implications for the design and control of power grids. Due to increasing supply-side uncertainty, traditional reliability constraints such as strict bounds on current, voltage and temperature in a transmission line have to be replaced by computationally demanding chance constraints. In this paper we use large deviations techniques to study the probability of current and temperature overloads in power grids with stochastic power injections, and develop corresponding safe capacity regions. In particular, we characterize the set of admissible power injections such that the probability of overloading of any line over a given time interval stays below a fixed target. We show how enforcing (stochastic) constraints on temperature, rather than on current, results in a less conservative approach and can thus lead to capacity gains.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Emergent failures and cascades in power grids: a statistical physics perspective

We model power grids transporting electricity generated by intermittent renewable sources as complex networks, where line failures can emerge indirectly by noisy power input at the nodes. By combining concepts from statistical physics and the physics of power flows, and taking weather correlations into account, we rank line failures according to their likelihood and establish the most likely way such failures occur and propagate. Our insights are mathematically rigorous in a small-noise limit and are validated with data from the German transmission grid.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Line failure probability bounds for power grids

We develop upper bounds for line failure probabilities in power grids, under the DC approximation and assuming Gaussian noise for the power injections. Our upper bounds are explicit, and lead to characterization of safe operational capacity regions that are convex and polyhedral, making our tools compatible with existing planning methods. Our probabilistic bounds are derived through the use of powerful concentration inequalities.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2015

Control of parallel non-observable queues: asymptotic equivalence and optimality of periodic policies

We consider a queueing system composed of a dispatcher that routes deterministically jobs to a set of non-observable queues working in parallel. In this setting, the fundamental problem is which policy should the dispatcher implement to minimize the stationary mean waiting time of the incoming jobs. We present a structural property that holds in the classic scaling of the system where the network demand (arrival rate of jobs) grows proportionally with the number of queues. Assuming that each queue of type $r$ is replicated $k$ times, we consider a set of policies that are periodic with period $k \sum_r p_r$ and such that exactly $p_r$ jobs are sent in a period to each queue of type $r$. When $k\to\infty$, our main result shows that all the policies in this set are equivalent, in the sense that they yield the same mean stationary waiting time, and optimal, in the sense that no other policy having the same aggregate arrival rate to \emph{all} queues of a given type can do better in minimizing the stationary mean waiting time. This property holds in a strong probabilistic sense. Furthermore, the limiting mean waiting time achieved by our policies is a convex function of the arrival rate in each queue, which facilitates the development of a further optimization aimed at solving the fundamental problem above for large systems.

cs.PF↗