arXiv subjects

Tommy Grav

Publications and source records attributed to Tommy Grav.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

The NEO Surveyor Near Earth Asteroid Known Object Model

The known near-Earth object (NEO) population consists of over 32,000 objects, with a yearly discovery rate of over 3000 NEOs per year. An essential component of the next generation of NEO surveys is an understanding of the population of known objects, including an accounting of the discovery rate per year as a function of size. Using a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) reference model developed for NASA's NEO Surveyor (NEOS) mission and a model of the major current and historical ground-based surveys, an estimate of the current NEA survey completeness as a function of size and absolute magnitude has been determined (termed the Known Object Model; KOM). This allows for understanding of the intersection of the known catalog of NEAs and the objects expected to be observed by NEOS. The current NEA population is found to be $\sim38\%$ complete for objects larger than 140m, consistent with estimates by Harris & Chodas (2021). NEOS is expected to catalog more than two thirds of the NEAs larger than 140m, resulting in $\sim76\%$ of NEAs cataloged at the end of its 5 year nominal survey (Mainzer et al, 2023}, making significant progress towards the US Congressional mandate. The KOM estimates that $\sim77\%$ of the currently cataloged objects will be detected by NEOS, with those not detected contributing $\sim9\%$ to the final completeness at the end its 5 year mission. This model allows for placing the NEO Surveyor mission in the context of current surveys to more completely assess the progress toward the goal of cataloging the population of hazardous asteroids.

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arXiv2023

The Near-Earth Object Surveyor Mission

The Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor mission is a NASA observatory designed to discover and characterize near-Earth asteroids and comets. The mission's primary objective is to find the majority of objects large enough to cause severe regional impact damage ($>$140 m in effective spherical diameter) within its five-year baseline survey. Operating at the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point, the mission will survey to within 45 degrees of the Sun in an effort to find the objects in the most Earth-like orbits. The survey cadence is optimized to provide observational arcs long enough to reliably distinguish near-Earth objects from more distant small bodies that cannot pose an impact hazard. Over the course of its survey, NEO Surveyor will discover $\sim$200,000 - 300,000 new NEOs down to sizes as small as $\sim$10 m and thousands of comets, significantly improving our understanding of the probability of an Earth impact over the next century.

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arXiv2023

Validation of the Survey Simulator tool for the NEO Surveyor mission using NEOWISE data

The Near Earth Object Surveyor mission has a requirement to find two-thirds of the potentially hazardous asteroids larger than 140 meters in size. In order to determine the mission's expected progress toward this goal during design and testing, as well as the actual progress during the survey, a simulation tool has been developed to act as a consistent and quantifiable yardstick. We test that the survey simulation software is correctly predicting on-sky positions and thermal infrared fluxes by using it to reproduce the published measurements of asteroids from the NEOWISE mission. We then extended this work to find previously unreported detections of known near Earth asteroids in the NEOWISE data archive, a search that resulted in 21,661 recovery detections, including 1,166 objects that had no previously reported NEOWISE observations. These efforts demonstrate the reliability of the NEOS Survey Simulator tool, and the perennial value of searchable image and source catalog archives for extending our knowledge of the small bodies of the Solar System.

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arXiv2022

NEOWISE Observations Of The Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (99942) Apophis

Large potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) are capable of causing a global catastrophe in the event of a planetary collision. Thus, rapid assessment of such an object's physical characteristics is crucial for determining its potential risk scale. We treated the near-Earth asteroid (99942) Apophis as a newly discovered object during its 2020-2021 close-approach as part of a mock planetary defense exercise. The object was detected by the Near-Earth Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (NEOWISE), and data collected by the two active bands (3.4 $μ$m and 4.6 $μ$m) were analyzed using thermal and thermophysical modeling. Our results indicate that Apophis is an elongated object with an effective spherical diameter D$_{eff}$ = 340 $\pm$ 70 m, a geometric visual albedo p$_{V}$ = 0.31 $\pm$ 0.09, and a thermal inertia $Γ$ $\sim$ 150 - 2850 Jm$^{-2}$s$^{-0.5}$K$^{-1}$ with a best-fit value of 550 Jm$^{-2}$s$^{-0.5}$K$^{-1}$. NEOWISE "discovery" observations reveal that (99942) Apophis is a potentially hazardous asteroid that would likely cause damage at a regional level and not a global one.

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arXiv2018

Response to "An empirical examination of WISE/NEOWISE asteroid analysis and results"

We show that a number of claims made in Myhrvold (2018) (hereafter M2018b) regarding the WISE data and thermal modeling of asteroids are incorrect. That paper provides thermal fit parameter outputs for only two of the about 150,000 object dataset and does not make a direct comparison to asteroids with diameters measured by other means to assess the quality of that work's thermal model. We are unable to reproduce the results for the two objects for which M2018b published its own thermal fit outputs, including diameter, albedo, beaming, and infrared albedo. In particular, the infrared albedos published in M2018b are unphysically low. [...] While there were some minor issues with consistency between tables due to clerical errors in the WISE/NEOWISE team's various papers and data release in the Planetary Data System, and a software issue that slightly increased diameter uncertainties in some cases, these issues do not substantially change the results and conclusions drawn from the data. We have shown in previous work and with updated analyses presented here that the effective spherical diameters for asteroids published to date are accurate to within the previously quoted minimum systematic 1-sigma uncertainty of about 10 percent when data of appropriate quality and quantity are available. Moreover, we show that the method used by M2018b to compare diameters between various asteroid datasets is incorrect and overestimates their differences. In addition, among other misconceptions in M2018b, we show that the WISE photometric measurement uncertainties are appropriately characterized and used by the WISE data processing pipeline and NEOWISE thermal modeling software. We show that the Near-Earth Asteroid Thermal Model (Harris 1998) employed by the NEOWISE team is a very useful model for analyzing infrared data to derive diameters and albedos when used properly.

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arXiv2017

A dwarf planet class object in the 21:5 resonance with Neptune

We report the discovery of a $H_r = 3.4\pm0.1$ dwarf planet candidate by the Pan-STARRS Outer Solar System Survey. 2010 JO$_{179}$ is red with $(g-r)=0.88 \pm 0.21$, roughly round, and slowly rotating, with a period of $30.6$ hr. Estimates of its albedo imply a diameter of 600--900~km. Observations sampling the span between 2005--2016 provide an exceptionally well-determined orbit for 2010 JO$_{179}$, with a semi-major axis of $78.307\pm0.009$ au, distant orbits known to this precision are rare. We find that 2010 JO$_{179}$ librates securely within the 21:5 mean-motion resonance with Neptune on hundred-megayear time scales, joining the small but growing set of known distant dwarf planets on metastable resonant orbits. These imply a substantial trans-Neptunian population that shifts between stability in high-order resonances, the detached population, and the eroding population of the scattering disk.

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arXiv2016

The Albedo Distribution of Near Earth Asteroids

The cryogenic WISE mission in 2010 was extremely sensitive to asteroids and not biased against detecting dark objects. The albedos of 428 Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) observed by WISE during its fully cryogenic mission can be fit quite well by a 3 parameter function that is the sum of two Rayleigh distributions. The Rayleigh distribution is zero for negative values, and follows $f(x) = x \exp[-x^2/(2σ^2)]/σ^2$ for positive x. The peak value is at x=σ, so the position and width are tied together. The three parameters are the fraction of the objects in the dark population, the position of the dark peak, and the position of the brighter peak. We find that 25.3% of the NEAs observed by WISE are in a very dark population peaking at $p_V = 0.03$, while the other 74.7% of the NEAs seen by WISE are in a moderately dark population peaking at $p_V = 0.168$. A consequence of this bimodal distribution is that the Congressional mandate to find 90% of all NEAs larger than 140 m diameter cannot be satisfied by surveying to H=22 mag, since a 140 m diameter asteroid at the very dark peak has H=23.7 mag, and more than 10% of NEAs are darker than p_V = 0.03.

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arXiv2016

Modeling the Performance of the LSST in Surveying the Near-Earth Object Population

We have performed a detailed survey simulation of the LSST performance with regards to near-Earth objects (NEOs) using the project's current baseline cadence. The survey shows that if the project is able to reliably generate linked sets of positions and times (a so-called "tracklet") using two detections of a given object per night and can link these tracklets into a track with a minimum of 3 tracklets covering more than a ~12 day length-of-arc, they would be able to discover 62% of the potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) larger than 140 m in its projected 10 year survey lifetime. This completeness would be reduced to 58% if the project is unable to implement a pipeline using the two detection cadence and has to adopt the four detection cadence more commonly used by existing NEO surveys. When including the estimated performance from the current operating surveys, assuming these would continue running until the start of LSST and perhaps beyond, the completeness fraction for PHAs larger than 140m would be 73% for the baseline cadence and 71% for the four detection cadence. This result is a lower than the estimate of Ivezic et al. (2007,2014); however it is comparable to that of Jones et al. (2016) who show completeness ~70$%. We also show that the traditional method of using absolute magnitude H < 22 mag as a proxy for the population with diameters larger than 140m results in completeness values that are too high by ~5%. Our simulation makes use of the most recent models of the physical and orbital properties of the NEO populations, as well as simulated cadences and telescope performance estimates provided by LSST. We further show that while neither LSST nor a space-based IR platform like NEOCam individually can complete the survey for 140m diameter NEOs, the combination of these systems can achieve that goal after a decade of observation.

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arXiv2015

The NEOWISE-Discovered Comet Population and the CO+CO2 production rates

The 163 comets observed during the WISE/NEOWISE prime mission represent the largest infrared survey to date of comets, providing constraints on dust, nucleus sizes, and CO+CO2 production. We present detailed analyses of the WISE/NEOWISE comet discoveries, and discuss observations of the active comets showing 4.6 $μ$m band excess. We find a possible relation between dust and CO+CO2 production, as well as possible differences in the sizes of long and short period comet nuclei.

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arXiv2015

The Complex History of Trojan Asteroids

The Trojan asteroids provide a unique perspective on the history of Solar System. As a large population of small bodies, they record important gravitational interactions and dynamical evolution of the Solar System. In the past decade, significant advances have been made in understanding physical properties, and there has been a revolution in thinking about the origin of Trojans. The ice and organics generally presumed to be a significant part of Trojan compositions have yet to be detected directly, though low density of the binary system Patroclus (and possibly low density of the binary/moonlet system Hektor) is consistent with an interior ice component. By contrast, fine-grained silicates that appear to be similar to cometary silicates in composition have been detected, and a color bimodality may indicate distinct compositional groups among the Trojans. Whereas Trojans had traditionally been thought to have formed near 5 AU, a new paradigm has developed in which the Trojans formed in the proto-Kuiper Belt, and they were scattered inward and captured in the Trojan swarms as a result of resonant interactions of the giant planets. Whereas the orbital and population distributions of current Trojans are consistent with this origin scenario, there are significant differences between current physical properties of Trojans and those of Kuiper Belt objects. These differences may be indicative of surface modification due to the inward migration of objects that became the Trojans, but understanding of appropriate modification mechanisms is poor and would benefit from additional laboratory studies. Many open questions remain, and the future promises significant strides in our understanding of Trojans. The time is ripe for a spacecraft mission to the Trojans, to turn these objects into geologic worlds that can be studied in detail to unravel their complex history.

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arXiv2015

NEOWISE: Observations of the Irregular Satellites of Jupiter and Saturn

We present thermal model fits for 11 Jovian and 3 Saturnian irregular satellites based on measurements from the WISE/NEOWISE dataset. Our fits confirm spacecraft-measured diameters for the objects with in situ observations (Himalia and Phoebe) and provide diameters and albedo for 12 previously unmeasured objects, 10 Jovian and 2 Saturnian irregular satellites. The best-fit thermal model beaming parameters are comparable to what is observed for other small bodies in the outer Solar System, while the visible, W1, and W2 albedos trace the taxonomic classifications previously established in the literature. Reflectance properties for the irregular satellites measured are similar to the Jovian Trojan and Hilda Populations, implying common origins.

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arXiv2013

Centaurs and Scattered Disk Objects in the Thermal Infrared: Analysis of WISE/NEOWISE Observations

The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) observed 52 Centaurs and Scattered Disk Objects in the thermal infrared, including the 15 discoveries that were new. We present analyses of these observations to estimate sizes and mean optical albedos. We find mean albedos of 0.08 +/- 0.04 for the entire data set. Thermal fits yield average beaming parameters of 0.9 +/- 0.2 that are similar for both SDO and Centaur sub-classes. Biased cumulative size distributions yield size-frequency distribution power law indices ~ -1.7 +/- 0.3. The data also reveal a relation between albedo and color at the 3-sigma level. No significant relation between diameter and albedos is found.

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arXiv2013

The Pan-STARRS Moving Object Processing System

We describe the Pan-STARRS Moving Object Processing System (MOPS), a modern software package that produces automatic asteroid discoveries and identifications from catalogs of transient detections from next-generation astronomical survey telescopes. MOPS achieves > 99.5% efficiency in producing orbits from a synthetic but realistic population of asteroids whose measurements were simulated for a Pan-STARRS4-class telescope. Additionally, using a non-physical grid population, we demonstrate that MOPS can detect populations of currently unknown objects such as interstellar asteroids. MOPS has been adapted successfully to the prototype Pan-STARRS1 telescope despite differences in expected false detection rates, fill-factor loss and relatively sparse observing cadence compared to a hypothetical Pan-STARRS4 telescope and survey. MOPS remains >99.5% efficient at detecting objects on a single night but drops to 80% efficiency at producing orbits for objects detected on multiple nights. This loss is primarily due to configurable MOPS processing limits that are not yet tuned for the Pan-STARRS1 mission. The core MOPS software package is the product of more than 15 person-years of software development and incorporates countless additional years of effort in third-party software to perform lower-level functions such as spatial searching or orbit determination. We describe the high-level design of MOPS and essential subcomponents, the suitability of MOPS for other survey programs, and suggest a road map for future MOPS development.

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arXiv2012

WISE/NEOWISE Preliminary Analysis and Highlights of the 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko Near Nucleus Environs

On January 18-19 and June 28-29 of 2010, the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) spacecraft imaged the Rosetta mission target, comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. We present a preliminary analysis of the images, which provide a characterization of the dust environment at heliocentric distances similar to those planned for the initial spacecraft encounter, but on the outbound leg of its orbit rather than the inbound. Broad-band photometry yields low levels of CO2 production at a comet heliocentric distance of 3.32 AU and no detectable production at 4.18 AU. We find that at these heliocentric distances, large dust grains with mean grain diameters on the order of a millimeter or greater dominate the coma and evolve to populate the tail. This is further supported by broad-band photometry centered on the nucleus, which yield an estimated differential dust particle size distribution with a power law relation that is considerably shallower than average. We set a 3-sigma upper limit constraint on the albedo of the large-grain dust at <= 0.12. Our best estimate of the nucleus radius (1.82 +/- 0.20 km) and albedo (0.04 +/- 0.01) are in agreement with measurements previously reported in the literature.

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arXiv2012

WISE/NEOWISE Observations of the Jovian Trojan Population: Taxonomy

We present updated/new thermal model fits for 478 Jovian Trojan asteroids observed with the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). Using the fact that the two shortest bands used by WISE, centered on 3.4 and $4.6μ$m, are dominated by reflected light, we derive albedos of a significant fraction of these objects in these bands. While the visible albedos of both the C-, P- and D-type asteroids are strikingly similar, the WISE data reveal that the albedo at $3.4μ$m is different between C-/P- and D-types. The albedo at 3.4$μ$m can be thus be used to classify the objects, with C-/P-types having values less than 10%, and D-types have values larger than 10%. Classifying all objects larger than 50km shows that the D-type objects dominate both the leading cloud ($L_4$), with a fraction of 84%, and trailing cloud ($L_5$), with a fraction of 71-80%. The two clouds thus have very similar taxonomic distribution for these large objects, but the leading cloud has a larger number of of these large objects, $L_4/L_5 = 1.34$. The taxonomic distribution of the Jovian Trojans are found to be different than that of the large Hildas, which is dominated by C- and P-type objects. At smaller sizes, the fraction of D-type Hildas starts increasing, showing more similarities with the Jovian Trojans. If this similarity is confirmed through deeper surveys, it could hold important clues to the formation and evolution of the two populations. The Jovian Trojans does have similar taxonomic distribution to that of the Jovian irregular satellites, but lacks the ultra red surfaces found among the Saturnian irregular satellites and Centaur population.

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arXiv2012

Identification of known objects in solar system surveys

The discovery of new objects in modern wide-field asteroid and comet surveys can be enhanced by first identifying observations belonging to known solar system objects. The assignation of new observations to a known object is an attribution problem that occurs when a least squares orbit already exists for the object but a separate fit is not possible to just the set of new observations. In this work we explore the strongly asymmetric attribution problem in which the existing least squares orbit is very well constrained and the new data are sparse. We describe an attribution algorithm that introduces new quality control metrics in the presence of strong biases in the astrometric residuals. The main biases arise from the stellar catalogs used in the reduction of asteroid observations and we show that a simple debiasing with measured regional catalog biases significantly improves the results. We tested the attribution algorithm using data from the PS1 survey that used the 2MASS star catalog for the astrometric reduction. We found small but statistically significant biases in the data of up to 0.1 arcsec that are relevant only when the observations reach the level of accuracy made possible by instruments like PS1. The false attribution rate was measured to be < 1/1,000 with a simple additional condition that can reduce it to zero while the attribution efficiency is consistent with 100%.

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arXiv2012

Observational and Dynamical Characterization of Main-Belt Comet P/2010 R2 (La Sagra)

We present observations of comet-like main-belt object P/2010 R2 (La Sagra) obtained by Pan-STARRS 1 and the Faulkes Telescope-North on Haleakala in Hawaii, the University of Hawaii 2.2 m, Gemini-North, and Keck I telescopes on Mauna Kea, the Danish 1.54 m telescope at La Silla, and the Isaac Newton Telescope on La Palma. An antisolar dust tail is observed from August 2010 through February 2011, while a dust trail aligned with the object's orbit plane is also observed from December 2010 through August 2011. Assuming typical phase darkening behavior, P/La Sagra is seen to increase in brightness by >1 mag between August 2010 and December 2010, suggesting that dust production is ongoing over this period. These results strongly suggest that the observed activity is cometary in nature (i.e., driven by the sublimation of volatile material), and that P/La Sagra is therefore the most recent main-belt comet to be discovered. We find an approximate absolute magnitude for the nucleus of H_R=17.9+/-0.2 mag, corresponding to a nucleus radius of ~0.7 km, assuming an albedo of p=0.05. Using optical spectroscopy, we find no evidence of sublimation products (i.e., gas emission), finding an upper limit CN production rate of Q_CN<6x10^23 mol/s, from which we infer an H2O production rate of Q_H2O<10^26 mol/s. Numerical simulations indicate that P/La Sagra is dynamically stable for >100 Myr, suggesting that it is likely native to its current location and that its composition is likely representative of other objects in the same region of the main belt, though the relatively close proximity of the 13:6 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and the (3,-2,-1) three-body mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and Saturn mean that dynamical instability on larger timescales cannot be ruled out.

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arXiv2012

Discovery of Main-Belt Comet P/2006 VW139 by Pan-STARRS1

Main belt asteroid (300163) 2006 VW139 (later designated P/2006 VW139) was discovered to exhibit comet-like activity by the Pan-STARRS1 survey telescope using automated point-spread-function analyses performed by PS1's Moving Object Processing System. Deep follow-up observations show both a short (\sim 10") antisolar dust tail and a longer (\sim 60") dust trail aligned with the object's orbit plane, similar to the morphology observed for another main-belt comet, P/2010 R2 (La Sagra), and other well-established comets, implying the action of a long-lived, sublimation-driven emission event. Photometry showing the brightness of the near-nucleus coma remaining constant over \sim 30 days provides further evidence for this object's cometary nature, suggesting it is in fact a main-belt comet, and not a disrupted asteroid. A spectroscopic search for CN emission was unsuccessful, though we find an upper limit CN production rate of Q_CN < 1.3x10^24 mol/s, from which we infer a water production rate of Q_H2O < 10^26 mol/s. We also find an approximately linear optical spectral slope of 7.2%/1000A, similar to other cometary dust comae. Numerical simulations indicate that P/2006 VW139 is dynamically stable for > 100 Myr, while a search for a potential asteroid family around the object reveals a cluster of 24 asteroids within a cutoff distance of 68 m/s. At 70 m/s, this cluster merges with the Themis family, suggesting that it could be similar to the Beagle family to which another main-belt comet, 133P/Elst-Pizarro, belongs.

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