arXiv subjects

Toni Karvonen

Publications and source records attributed to Toni Karvonen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Bayesian Quadrature

Bayesian quadrature is a probabilistic, model-based approach to numerical integration, the estimation of intractable integrals, or expectations. Although Bayesian quadrature was popularised already in the 1980s, no systematic and comprehensive treatment has been published. The purpose of this survey is to fill this gap. We review the mathematical foundations of Bayesian quadrature from different points of view; present a systematic taxonomy for classifying different Bayesian quadrature methods along the three axes of modelling, inference, and sampling; collect general theoretical guarantees; and provide a controlled numerical study that explores and illustrates the effect of different choices along the axes of the taxonomy. We also provide a realistic assessment of practical challenges and limitations to application of Bayesian quadrature methods and include an up-to-date and nearly exhaustive bibliography that covers not only machine learning and statistics literature but all areas of mathematics and engineering in which Bayesian quadrature or equivalent methods have seen use.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A debiased Bernoulli factory and unbiased estimation of a probability

Given a known function $f : [0, 1] \to (0, 1)$ and a random but almost surely finite number of independent, Ber$(x)$-distributed random variables with unknown $x \in [0, 1]$, we prove the existence of an unbiased, $[0, 1]$-valued estimator of the probability $f(x) \in (0, 1)$. Our estimator is based on so-called debiasing, or randomly truncating a telescopic series of consistent estimators. Debiased estimators of a probability are not typically constrained to $[0, 1]$, or even bounded, even when all consistent estimators used as inputs are. We show that constructing the series of consistent estimators from the coefficients of a particular Bernoulli factory yields provable boundedness provided $f \in C^ρ[0, 1]$ for $ρ> 3$. Our result can be thought of as a novel Bernoulli factory with the appealing property that the required number of Ber$(x)$-distributed random variates is independent of their outcomes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

Why not to use the Gaussian kernel

Kernels measure similarity or correlation in tasks such as regression and classification. The Gaussian kernel, other names of which include squared exponential and radial basis function kernel, is one of the most popular in Gaussian process regression. We argue that the Gaussian kernel is best avoided and should never be used as a default. The argument rests on two results demonstrating that the Gaussian kernel is extremely brittle. First, the Gaussian kernel gives rise to a conditional variance that is unrealistically small. If the variance is used to quantify predictive uncertainty, catastrophic overconfidence is almost inevitable. Second, a small variance goes hand in hand with numerical ill-conditioning, so that to use the Gaussian kernel in practice requires tricks such as nugget terms that effectively modify the underlying regression or classification model. These problems are caused by the unnatural smoothness of the Gaussian kernel, a fact we are far from the first to take notice of. The problem is not the Gaussian form itself but the analyticity of the kernel: Our argument is more broadly that analytic kernels are best avoided. For stationary kernels analyticity is essentially equivalent to an exponential decay of the spectral density.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Bumps and polynomials in RKHSs of translation-invariant kernels

We use the uncertainty principle of harmonic analysis and the Beurling-Malliavin theorem to describe when a reproducing kernel Hilbert space of a translation-invariant positive-definite kernel contains bump functions and polynomials. How fast the spectral density of the kernel decays controls whether or not these functions are included in the Hilbert space.

math.FA↗

arXiv2026

Piecewise linear interpolation via kernels

We consider piecewise linear interpolation from the perspective of kernel interpolation and quadrature. If the Sobolev space $W_2^1(0, 1)$ is equipped with a suitable inner product, its reproducing kernel is piecewise linear and gives rise to piecewise linear interpolation. We show that such kernels are Green kernels for certain second-order partial differential equations and use kernel-based superconvergence theory to obtain rates of convergence for approximation of functions lying in $W_2^s(0, 1)$ for $s \in [1, 2]$. The rates coincide with classical rates for linear splines.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Hierarchical Bayesian Quadrature

Numerical integration is a cornerstone of various scientific computing applications, such as engineering simulations and model evidence computations in probabilistic machine learning. Bayesian Quadrature uses Gaussian process surrogates that explicitly encode structural assumptions about the integrand to obtain integral estimates with quantified uncertainty. These surrogates are predominantly based on stationary covariance functions, which results in model misspecification for integrands exhibiting nonstationary behavior. We tackle this issue through an adaptively growing, tree-based partition of the integration domain into local stationary models. Our method recombines the local integral estimates through a hierarchy of GP conditioning that reintroduces cross-subdomain correlations, while model selection criteria control the tree growth to avoid unnecessary partitioning. The resulting algorithm is simple, requires no MCMC, and adapts its evaluation budget to local integrand complexity. On benchmark integration problems and a model evidence computation for an epidemiological model, Hierarchical Bayesian Quadrature achieves substantial gains over standard Bayesian Quadrature on nonstationary integrands while matching its performance on stationary ones.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Wasserstein bounds for non-linear Gaussian filters

Most Kalman filters for non-linear systems, such as the unscented Kalman filter, are based on Gaussian approximations. We use Poincaré inequalities to bound the Wasserstein distance between the true joint distribution of the prediction and measurement and its Gaussian approximation. The bounds can be used to assess the performance of non-linear Gaussian filters and determine those filtering approximations that are most likely to induce error.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Gaussian Processes with Sample Paths in Reproducing Kernel Banach Spaces

We investigate the connection between Gaussian processes and Gaussian random elements in reproducing kernel Banach spaces. We show that the covariance operator of a weak second-order Radon probability measure on such a space is uniquely determined by a positive definite function. In the Gaussian case, we characterize those positive definite functions that arise from covariance operators in terms of $γ$-radonifying operators. Building on these results, we extend the classical Driscoll theorem to the Banach space setting.

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

Stationary MMD Points

Approximation of a target probability distribution using a finite set of points is a problem of fundamental importance in numerical integration. Several authors have proposed to select points by minimising a maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), but the non-convexity of this objective typically precludes global minimisation. Instead, we consider the concept of \emph{stationary points of the MMD} which, in contrast to points globally minimising the MMD, can be accurately computed. Our main contributions are two-fold and theoretical in nature. We first prove the (perhaps surprising) result that, for integrands in the associated reproducing kernel Hilbert space, the numerical integration error of stationary MMD points vanishes \emph{faster} than the MMD. Motivated by this \emph{super-convergence} property, we consider MMD gradient flows as a practical strategy for computing stationary points of the MMD. We then prove that MMD gradient flow can indeed compute stationary MMD points, based on a refined convergence analysis that establishes a novel non-asymptotic finite-particle error bound.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Sparse Probabilistic Richardson Extrapolation

Almost every numerical task can be cast as extrapolation with respect to the fidelity or tolerance parameters of a consistent numerical method. This perspective enables probabilistic uncertainty quantification and optimal experimental design functionality to be deployed, and also unlocks the potential for the convergence of numerical methods to be accelerated. Recent work established Probabilistic Richardson Extrapolation as a proof-of-concept, demonstrating how parallel multi-fidelity simulation can be used to accelerate simulation from a whole-heart model. However, the number of simulations was required to increase super-exponentially in $d$, the number of tolerance parameters appearing in the numerical method. This paper develops a refined notion of 'extrapolation dimension', drastically reducing this simulation requirement when multiple tolerance parameters feature in the numerical method. Sparsity-exploiting methodology is developed that is simultaneously simpler and more powerful compared to earlier work, and this is accompanied by sharp theoretical guarantees and substantial empirical support.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Safe learning-based control via function-based uncertainty quantification

Uncertainty quantification is essential when deploying learning-based control methods in safety-critical systems. This is commonly realized by constructing uncertainty tubes that enclose the unknown function of interest, e.g., the reward and constraint functions or the underlying dynamics model, with high probability. However, existing approaches for uncertainty quantification typically rely on restrictive assumptions on the unknown function, such as known bounds on functional norms or Lipschitz constants, and struggle with discontinuities. In this paper, we model the unknown function as a random function from which independent and identically distributed realizations can be generated, and construct uncertainty tubes via the scenario approach that hold with high probability and rely solely on the sampled realizations. We integrate these uncertainty tubes into a safe Bayesian optimization algorithm, which we then use to safely tune control parameters on a real Furuta pendulum.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Construction of Optimal Algorithms for Function Approximation in Gaussian Sobolev Spaces

This paper studies function approximation in Gaussian Sobolev spaces over the real line and measures the error in a Gaussian-weighted $L^p$-norm. We construct two linear approximation algorithms using $n$ function evaluations that achieve the optimal or almost optimal rate of worst-case convergence in a Gaussian Sobolev space of order $α$. The first algorithm is based on scaled trigonometric interpolation and achieves the optimal rate $n^{-α}$ up to a logarithmic factor. This algorithm can be constructed in almost-linear time with the fast Fourier transform. The second algorithm is more complicated, being based on spline smoothing, but attains the optimal rate $n^{-α}$.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

BayesSum: Bayesian Quadrature in Discrete Spaces

This paper addresses the challenging computational problem of estimating intractable expectations over discrete domains. Existing approaches, including Monte Carlo and Russian Roulette estimators, are consistent but often require a large number of samples to achieve accurate results. We propose a novel estimator, \emph{BayesSum}, which is an extension of Bayesian quadrature to discrete domains. It is more sample efficient than alternatives due to its ability to make use of prior information about the integrand through a Gaussian process. We show this through theory, deriving a convergence rate significantly faster than Monte Carlo in a broad range of settings. We also demonstrate empirically that our proposed method does indeed require fewer samples on several synthetic settings as well as for parameter estimation for Conway-Maxwell-Poisson and Potts models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Scale estimation and rate-unbiasedness for Gaussian processes under smoothness misspecification

Gaussian process regression is used throughout statistics and machine learning for prediction and uncertainty quantification. A Gaussian process is specified by its mean and covariance functions. Many covariance functions, including Matérns, have a smoothness parameter that is notoriously difficult to specify correctly or estimate from the data. In practice, the smoothness parameter is often selected more or less arbitrarily. We introduce rate-unbiasedness, a relaxed notion of asymptotic optimality which requires that the expected ratio of the mean-square error presumed by a potentially misspecified model and the true, but unknown, mean-square error remain bounded away from zero and infinity as more data are obtained. A rate-unbiased model provides uncertainty quantification that is of correct order of magnitude. We then prove that scale estimation suffices for rate-unbiasedness in a variety of common settings. As estimation of the scale of a Gaussian process is routine and requires no optimisation, rate-unbiasedness can be achieved in many applications.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Maximum mean discrepancies of Farey sequences

We identify a large class of positive-semidefinite kernels for which a certain polynomial rate of convergence of maximum mean discrepancies of Farey sequences is equivalent to the Riemann hypothesis. This class includes all Matérn kernels of order at least one-half.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Approximation in Hilbert spaces of the Gaussian and related analytic kernels

We consider linear approximation based on function evaluations in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces of certain analytic weighted power series kernels and stationary kernels on the interval $[-1,1]$. Both classes contain the popular Gaussian kernel $K(x, y) = \exp(-\tfrac{1}{2}\varepsilon^2(x-y)^2)$. For weighted power series kernels we derive almost matching upper and lower bounds on the worst-case error. When applied to the Gaussian kernel, our results state that, up to a sub-exponential factor, the $n$th minimal error decays as $(\varepsilon/2)^n (n!)^{-1/2}$. The proofs are based on weighted polynomial interpolation and classical polynomial coefficient estimates that we use to bound the Hilbert space norm of a weighted polynomial fooling function.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Comparing Scale Parameter Estimators for Gaussian Process Interpolation with the Brownian Motion Prior: Leave-One-Out Cross Validation and Maximum Likelihood

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a Bayesian nonparametric method for regression and interpolation, offering a principled way of quantifying the uncertainties of predicted function values. For the quantified uncertainties to be well-calibrated, however, the kernel of the GP prior has to be carefully selected. In this paper, we theoretically compare two methods for choosing the kernel in GP regression: cross-validation and maximum likelihood estimation. Focusing on the scale-parameter estimation of a Brownian motion kernel in the noiseless setting, we prove that cross-validation can yield asymptotically well-calibrated credible intervals for a broader class of ground-truth functions than maximum likelihood estimation, suggesting an advantage of the former over the latter. Finally, motivated by the findings, we propose interior cross validation, a procedure that adapts to an even broader class of ground-truth functions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Error analysis for a statistical finite element method

The recently proposed statistical finite element (statFEM) approach synthesises measurement data with finite element models and allows for making predictions about the unknown true system response. We provide a probabilistic error analysis for a prototypical statFEM setup based on a Gaussian process prior under the assumption that the noisy measurement data are generated by a deterministic true system response function that satisfies a second-order elliptic partial differential equation for an unknown true source term. In certain cases, properties such as the smoothness of the source term may be misspecified by the Gaussian process model. The error estimates we derive are for the expectation with respect to the measurement noise of the $L^2$-norm of the difference between the true system response and the mean of the statFEM posterior. The estimates imply polynomial rates of convergence in the numbers of measurement points and finite element basis functions and depend on the Sobolev smoothness of the true source term and the Gaussian process model. A numerical example for Poisson's equation is used to illustrate these theoretical results.

math.ST↗