arXiv subjects

Tore Selland Kleppe

Publications and source records attributed to Tore Selland Kleppe.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Locally adaptive step sizes for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods

Exact reversible locally adaptive step sizes are introduced by Bou-Rabee et al. (2026) in the context of the No-U-Turn Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler for the purpose of high performance HMC sampling in challenging target distributions. This paper carefully explains and illustrates the locally adaptive step size procedure under more general assumptions. Alternative error measures are introduced with the aim of further enhancing MCMC performance by reducing the prevalence of reversibility failure rejections. In addition, the paper shows how to introduce the locally adaptive step sizes also within standard HMC and Metropolis-corrected kinetic Langevin/generalized HMC (GHMC). Finally, a numerical study of the relative merits of the proposed error measures in the context of different Hamiltonian flow-based MCMC methods is provided.

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arXiv2025

The Within-Orbit Adaptive Leapfrog No-U-Turn Sampler

Locally adapting parameters within Markov chain Monte Carlo methods while preserving reversibility is notoriously difficult. The success of the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) largely stems from its clever local adaptation of the integration time in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo via a geometric U-turn condition. However, posterior distributions frequently exhibit multi-scale geometries with extreme variations in scale, making it necessary to also adapt the leapfrog integrator's step size locally and dynamically. Despite its practical importance, this problem has remained largely open since the introduction of NUTS by Hoffman and Gelman (2014). To address this issue, we introduce the Within-orbit Adaptive Leapfrog No-U-Turn Sampler (WALNUTS), a generalization of NUTS that adapts the leapfrog step size at fixed intervals of simulated time as the orbit evolves. At each interval, the algorithm selects the largest step size from a dyadic schedule that keeps the energy error below a user-specified threshold. Like NUTS, WALNUTS employs biased progressive state selection to favor states with positions that are further from the initial point along the orbit. Empirical evaluations on multiscale target distributions, including Neal's funnel and the Stock-Watson stochastic volatility time-series model, demonstrate that WALNUTS achieves substantial improvements in sampling efficiency and robustness compared to standard NUTS.

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arXiv2025

Numerical Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for piecewise smooth target densities

Traditional gradient-based sampling methods, like standard Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, require that the desired target distribution is continuous and differentiable. This limits the types of models one can define, although the presented models capture the reality in the observations better. In this project, Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (GRHMC) processes for sampling continuous densities with discontinuous gradient and piecewise smooth targets are proposed. The methods combine the advantages of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods with the nature of continuous time processes in the form of piecewise deterministic Markov processes to sample from such distributions. It is argued that the techniques lead to GRHMC processes that admit the desired target distribution as the invariant distribution in both scenarios. Simulation experiments verifying this fact and several relevant real-life models are presented, including a new parameterization of the spike and slab prior for regularized linear regression that returns sparse coefficient estimates and a regime switching volatility model.

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arXiv2024

Randomized Runge-Kutta-Nyström Methods for Unadjusted Hamiltonian and Kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo

We introduce $5/2$- and $7/2$-order $L^2$-accurate randomized Runge-Kutta-Nyström methods, tailored for approximating Hamiltonian flows within non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers, such as unadjusted Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and unadjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo. We establish quantitative $5/2$-order $L^2$-accuracy upper bounds under gradient and Hessian Lipschitz assumptions on the potential energy function. The numerical experiments demonstrate the superior efficiency of the proposed unadjusted samplers on a variety of well-behaved, high-dimensional target distributions.

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arXiv2024

Incorporating Local Step-Size Adaptivity into the No-U-Turn Sampler using Gibbs Self Tuning

Adapting the step size locally in the no-U-turn sampler (NUTS) is challenging because the step-size and path-length tuning parameters are interdependent. The determination of an optimal path length requires a predefined step size, while the ideal step size must account for errors along the selected path. Ensuring reversibility further complicates this tuning problem. In this paper, we present a method for locally adapting the step size in NUTS that is an instance of the Gibbs self-tuning (GIST) framework. Our approach guarantees reversibility with an acceptance probability that depends exclusively on the conditional distribution of the step size. We validate our step-size-adaptive NUTS method on Neal's funnel density and a high-dimensional normal distribution, demonstrating its effectiveness in challenging scenarios.

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arXiv2024

Numerical Generalized Randomized HMC processes for restricted domains

We propose a generic approach for numerically efficient simulation from analytically intractable distributions with constrained support. Our approach relies upon Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (GRHMC) processes and combines these with a randomized transition kernel that appropriately adjusts the Hamiltonian flow at the boundary of the constrained domain, ensuring that it remains within the domain. The numerical implementation of this constrained GRHMC process exploits the sparsity of the randomized transition kernel and the specific structure of the constraints so that the proposed approach is numerically accurate, computationally fast and operational even in high-dimensional applications. We illustrate this approach with posterior distributions of several Bayesian models with challenging parameter domain constraints in applications to real-word data sets. Building on the capability of GRHMC processes to efficiently explore otherwise challenging and high-dimensional posteriors, the proposed method expands the set of Bayesian models that can be analyzed by using the standard Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methodology, As such, it can advance the development and use of Bayesian models with useful constrained priors, which are difficult to handle with existing methods. The article is accompanied by an R-package (\url{https://github.com/torekleppe/pdmphmc}), which allows for automatically implementing GRHMC processes for arbitrary target distributions and domain constraints.

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arXiv2024

Tuning diagonal scale matrices for HMC

Three approaches for adaptively tuning diagonal scale matrices for HMC are discussed and compared. The common practice of scaling according to estimated marginal standard deviations is taken as a benchmark. Scaling according to the mean log-target gradient (ISG), and a scaling method targeting that the frequency of when the underlying Hamiltonian dynamics crosses the respective medians should be uniform across dimensions, are taken as alternatives. Numerical studies suggest that the ISG method leads in many cases to more efficient sampling than the benchmark, in particular in cases with strong correlations or non-linear dependencies. The ISG method is also easy to implement, computationally cheap and would be relatively simple to include in automatically tuned codes as an alternative to the benchmark practice.

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arXiv2023

Log-density gradient covariance and automatic metric tensors for Riemann manifold Monte Carlo methods

A metric tensor for Riemann manifold Monte Carlo particularly suited for non-linear Bayesian hierarchical models is proposed. The metric tensor is built from symmetric positive semidefinite log-density gradient covariance (LGC) matrices, which are also proposed and further explored here. The LGCs generalize the Fisher information matrix by measuring the joint information content and dependence structure of both a random variable and the parameters of said variable. Consequently, positive definite Fisher/LGC-based metric tensors may be constructed not only from the observation likelihoods as is current practice, but also from arbitrarily complicated non-linear prior/latent variable structures, provided the LGC may be derived for each conditional distribution used to construct said structures. The proposed methodology is highly automatic and allows for exploitation of any sparsity associated with the model in question. When implemented in conjunction with a Riemann manifold variant of the recently proposed numerical generalized randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo processes, the proposed methodology is highly competitive, in particular for the more challenging target distributions associated with Bayesian hierarchical models.

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arXiv2022

Connecting the Dots: Numerical Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with State-Dependent Event Rates

Numerical Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is introduced, as a robust, easy to use and computationally fast alternative to conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for continuous target distributions. A wide class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes generalizing Randomized HMC (Bou-Rabee and Sanz-Serna, 2017) by allowing for state-dependent event rates is defined. Under very mild restrictions, such processes will have the desired target distribution as an invariant distribution. Secondly, the numerical implementation of such processes, based on adaptive numerical integration of second order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is considered. The numerical implementation yields an approximate, yet highly robust algorithm that, unlike conventional Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, enables the exploitation of the complete Hamiltonian trajectories (hence the title). The proposed algorithm may yield large speedups and improvements in stability relative to relevant benchmarks, while incurring numerical biases that are negligible relative to the overall Monte Carlo errors. Granted access to a high-quality ODE code, the proposed methodology is both easy to implement and use, even for highly challenging and high-dimensional target distributions.

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arXiv2020

agtboost: Adaptive and Automatic Gradient Tree Boosting Computations

agtboost is an R package implementing fast gradient tree boosting computations in a manner similar to other established frameworks such as xgboost and LightGBM, but with significant decreases in computation time and required mathematical and technical knowledge. The package automatically takes care of split/no-split decisions and selects the number of trees in the gradient tree boosting ensemble, i.e., agtboost adapts the complexity of the ensemble automatically to the information in the data. All of this is done during a single training run, which is made possible by utilizing developments in information theory for tree algorithms {\tt arXiv:2008.05926v1 [stat.ME]}. agtboost also comes with a feature importance function that eliminates the common practice of inserting noise features. Further, a useful model validation function performs the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the learned distribution.

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arXiv2020

An information criterion for automatic gradient tree boosting

An information theoretic approach to learning the complexity of classification and regression trees and the number of trees in gradient tree boosting is proposed. The optimism (test loss minus training loss) of the greedy leaf splitting procedure is shown to be the maximum of a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process, from which a generalization-error based information criterion is formed. The proposed procedure allows fast local model selection without cross validation based hyper parameter tuning, and hence efficient and automatic comparison among the large number of models performed during each boosting iteration. Relative to xgboost, speedups on numerical experiments ranges from around 10 to about 1400, at similar predictive-power measured in terms of test-loss.

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arXiv2020

Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Stochastic Trends in Commodity Prices

We propose a state-space model (SSM) for commodity prices that combines the competitive storage model with a stochastic trend. This approach fits into the economic rationality of storage decisions, and adds to previous deterministic trend specifications of the storage model. Parameters are estimated using a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. Empirical application to four commodity markets shows that the stochastic trend SSM is favored over deterministic trend specifications. The stochastic trend SSM identifies structural parameters that differ from those for deterministic trend specifications. In particular, the estimated price elasticities of demand are significantly larger under the stochastic trend SSM.

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arXiv2019

Importance Sampling-based Transport Map Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian Hierarchical Models

We propose an importance sampling (IS)-based transport map Hamiltonian Monte Carlo procedure for performing full Bayesian analysis in general nonlinear high-dimensional hierarchical models. Using IS techniques to construct a transport map, the proposed method transforms the typically highly challenging target distribution of a hierarchical model into a target which is easily sampled using standard Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Conventional applications of high-dimensional IS, where infinite variance of IS weights can be a serious problem, require computationally costly high-fidelity IS distributions. An appealing property of our method is that the IS distributions employed can be of rather low fidelity, making it computationally cheap. We illustrate our algorithm in applications to challenging dynamic state-space models, where it exhibits very high simulation efficiency compared to relevant benchmarks, even for variants of the proposed method implemented using a few dozen lines of code in the Stan statistical software.

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arXiv2019

Analyzing Commodity Futures Using Factor State-Space Models with Wishart Stochastic Volatility

We propose a factor state-space approach with stochastic volatility to model and forecast the term structure of future contracts on commodities. Our approach builds upon the dynamic 3-factor Nelson-Siegel model and its 4-factor Svensson extension and assumes for the latent level, slope and curvature factors a Gaussian vector autoregression with a multivariate Wishart stochastic volatility process. Exploiting the conjugacy of the Wishart and the Gaussian distribution, we develop a computationally fast and easy to implement MCMC algorithm for the Bayesian posterior analysis. An empirical application to daily prices for contracts on crude oil with stipulated delivery dates ranging from one to 24 months ahead show that the estimated 4-factor Svensson model with two curvature factors provides a good parsimonious representation of the serial correlation in the individual prices and their volatility. It also shows that this model has a good out-of-sample forecast performance.

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arXiv2018

Dynamically rescaled Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian Hierarchical Models

Dynamically rescaled Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (DRHMC) is introduced as a computationally fast and easily implemented method for performing full Bayesian analysis in hierarchical statistical models. The method relies on introducing a modified parameterisation so that the re-parameterised target distribution has close to constant scaling properties, and thus is easily sampled using standard (Euclidian metric) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Provided that the parameterisations of the conditional distributions specifying the hierarchical model are "constant information parameterisations" (CIP), the relation between the modified- and original parameterisation is bijective, explicitly computed and admit exploitation of sparsity in the numerical linear algebra involved. CIPs for a large catalogue of statistical models are presented, and from the catalogue, it is clear that many CIPs are currently routinely used in statistical computing. A relation between the proposed methodology and a class of explicitly integrated Riemann manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods is discussed. The methodology is illustrated on several example models, including a model for inflation rates with multiple levels of non-linearly dependent latent variables.

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arXiv2018

The Gibbs Sampler with Particle Efficient Importance Sampling for State-Space Models

We consider Particle Gibbs (PG) as a tool for Bayesian analysis of non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. PG is a Monte Carlo (MC) approximation of the standard Gibbs procedure which uses sequential MC (SMC) importance sampling inside the Gibbs procedure to update the latent and potentially high-dimensional state trajectories. We propose to combine PG with a generic and easily implementable SMC approach known as Particle Efficient Importance Sampling (PEIS). By using SMC importance sampling densities which are approximately fully globally adapted to the targeted density of the states, PEIS can substantially improve the mixing and the efficiency of the PG draws from the posterior of the states and the parameters relative to existing PG implementations. The efficiency gains achieved by PEIS are illustrated in PG applications to a univariate stochastic volatility model for asset returns, a non-Gaussian nonlinear local-level model for interest rates, and a multivariate stochastic volatility model for the realized covariance matrix of asset returns.

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arXiv2017

Modified Cholesky Riemann Manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo: Exploiting Sparsity for Fast Sampling of High-dimensional Targets

Riemann manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) has the potential to produce high-quality Markov chain Monte Carlo-output even for very challenging target distributions. To this end, a symmetric positive definite scaling matrix for RMHMC, which derives, via a modified Cholesky factorization, from the potentially indefinite negative Hessian of the target log-density is proposed. The methodology is able to exploit the sparsity of the Hessian, stemming from conditional independence modeling assumptions, and thus admit fast implementation of RMHMC even for high-dimensional target distributions. Moreover, the methodology can exploit log-concave conditional target densities, often encountered in Bayesian hierarchical models, for faster sampling and more straight forward tuning. The proposed methodology is compared to alternatives for some challenging targets, and is illustrated by applying a state space model to real data.

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arXiv2017

Estimating the Competitive Storage Model: A Simulated Likelihood Approach

This paper develops a particle filter maximum likelihood estimator for the competitive storage model. The estimator is suitable for inference problems in commodity markets where only reliable price data is available for estimation, and shocks are temporally dependent. The estimator efficiently utilizes the information present in the conditional distribution of prices when shocks are not iid. Compared to Deaton and Laroque's composite quasi-maximum likelihood estimator, simulation experiments and real-data estimation show substantial improvements in both bias and precision. Simulation experiments also show that the precision of the particle filter estimator improves faster than for composite quasi-maximum likelihood with more price data. To demonstrate the estimator and its relevance to actual data, we fit the storage model to data set of monthly natural gas prices. It is shown that the storage model estimated with the particle filter estimator beats, in terms of log-likelihood, commonly used reduced form time-series models such as the linear AR(1), AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) and Markov Switching AR(1) models for this data set.

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