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Trent Victor

Publications and source records attributed to Trent Victor.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

The Field of Safe Motion: Operationalizing Affordances in the Field of Safe Travel Using Reachability Analysis

We present the Field of Safe Motion (FSM), a quantitative safety model for determining whether a driver maintains a collision-free escape route, or "out," at any given moment by accounting for that driver's physical capabilities and the foreseeable actions of other road users. The Field of Safe Travel (FST) provides a framework for representing the types of sensory information and actions available to drivers. However, the FST has remained conceptual in nature since its initial publication almost 90 years ago -- and a concrete computational operationalization is still lacking. At the same time, reachability analysis provides a quantitative basis for assessing the possible actions available to road users, using interpretable kinematic models, but reachability models have so far remained confined largely to the engineering and robotics literature. Bringing these two approaches together provides for an interpretable, quantitative tool for assessing driving behavior across a wide range of driving scenarios. Beyond being interpretable, our approach relies on a relatively small set of basic assumptions that are easy to enumerate and reason about. Furthermore, an interpretable reachability model paired with kinematic assumptions provides a way to bound uncertainty about road users' reasonably foreseeable future locations. We demonstrate the applicability of the FSM to different driving scenarios and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the model.

cs.RO

From Stoplights to On-Ramps: A Comprehensive Set of Crash Rate Benchmarks for Freeway and Surface Street ADS Evaluation

This paper presents crash rate benchmarks for evaluating US-based Automated Driving Systems (ADS) for multiple urban areas. The purpose of this study was to extend prior benchmarks focused only on surface streets to additionally capture freeway crash risk for future ADS safety performance assessments. Using publicly available police-reported crash and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data, the methodology details the isolation of in-transport passenger vehicles, road type classification, and crash typology. Key findings revealed that freeway crash rates exhibit large geographic dependence variations with any-injury-reported crash rates being nearly 3.5 times higher in Atlanta (2.4 IPMM; the highest) when compared to Phoenix (0.7 IPMM; the lowest). The results show the critical need for location-specific benchmarks to avoid biased safety evaluations and provide insights into the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) required to achieve statistical significance for various safety impact levels. The distribution of crash types depended on the outcome severity level. Higher severity outcomes (e.g., fatal crashes) had a larger proportion of single-vehicle, vulnerable road users (VRU), and opposite-direction collisions compared to lower severity (police-reported) crashes. Given heterogeneity in crash types by severity, performance in low-severity scenarios may not be predictive of high-severity outcomes. These benchmarks are additionally used to quantify at the required mileage to show statistically significant deviations from human performance. This is the first paper to generate freeway-specific benchmarks for ADS evaluation and provides a foundational framework for future ADS benchmarking by evaluators and developers.

cs.RO

Determining Absence of Unreasonable Risk: Approval Guidelines for an Automated Driving System Deployment

This paper provides an overview of how the determination of absence of unreasonable risk can be operationalized. It complements previous theoretical work published by existing developers of Automated Driving Systems (ADS) on the overall engineering practices and methodologies for readiness determination. Readiness determination is, at its core, a risk assessment process. It is aimed at evaluating the residual risk associated with a new deployment. The paper proposes methodological criteria to ground the readiness review process for an ADS release. While informed by Waymo's experience in this domain, the criteria presented are agnostic of any specific ADS technological solution and/or architectural choice, to support broad implementation by others in the industry. The paper continues with a discussion on governance and decision-making toward approval of a new release candidate for the ADS. The implementation of the presented criteria requires the existence of appropriate safety management practices in addition to many other cultural, procedural, and operational considerations. As such, the paper is concluded by a statement of limitations for those wishing to replicate part or all of its content.

cs.SE

Comparison of Waymo Rider-Only Crash Rates by Crash Type to Human Benchmarks at 56.7 Million Miles

SAE Level 4 Automated Driving Systems (ADSs) are deployed on public roads, including Waymo's Rider-Only (RO) ride-hailing service (without a driver behind the steering wheel). The objective of this study was to perform a retrospective safety assessment of Waymo's RO crash rate compared to human benchmarks, including disaggregated by crash type. Eleven crash type groups were identified from commonly relied upon crash typologies that are derived from human crash databases. Human benchmarks were aligned to the same vehicle types, road types, and locations as where the Waymo Driver operated. Waymo crashes were extracted from the NHTSA Standing General Order (SGO). RO mileage was provided by the company via a public website. Any-injury-reported, Airbag Deployment, and Suspected Serious Injury+ crash outcomes were examined because they represented previously established, safety-relevant benchmarks where statistical testing could be performed at the current mileage. Data was examined over 56.7 million RO miles through the end of January 2025, resulting in a statistically significant lower crashed vehicle rate for all crashes compared to the benchmarks in Any-Injury-Reported and Airbag Deployment, and Suspected Serious Injury+ crashes. Of the crash types, V2V Intersection crash events represented the largest total crash reduction, with a 96% reduction in Any-injury-reported (87%-99% CI) and a 91% reduction in Airbag Deployment (76%-98% CI) events. Cyclist, Motorcycle, Pedestrian, Secondary Crash, and Single Vehicle crashes were also statistically reduced for the Any-Injury-Reported outcome. There was no statistically significant disbenefit found in any of the 11 crash type groups. This study represents the first retrospective safety assessment of an RO ADS that made statistical conclusions about more serious crash outcomes and analyzed crash rates on a crash type basis.

cs.RO

Being good (at driving): Characterizing behavioral expectations on automated and human driven vehicles

For over a century, researchers have wrestled with how to define good driving behavior, and the debate has surfaced anew for automated vehicles (AVs). We put forth the concept of Drivership as a framing for the realization of good driving behaviors. Drivership grounds the evaluation of driving behaviors in the alignment between the mutualistic expectations that exist amongst road users. Leveraging existing literature, we distinguish Empirical Expectations (i.e., reflecting "beliefs that a certain behavior will be followed," drawing on past experiences) (Bicchieri, 2006); and Normative Expectations (i.e., reflecting "beliefs that a certain behavior ought to be followed," based on societally agreed-upon principles) (Bicchieri, 2006). Because societal expectations naturally shift over time, we introduce a third type of expectation, Furtherance Expectations, denoting behavior which could be exhibited to enable continuous improvement of the transportation ecosystem. We position Drivership within the space of societal Normative Expectations, which may overlap with some Empirical and Furtherance Expectations, constrained by what is technologically and physically feasible. Additionally, we establish a novel vocabulary to rigorously tackle conversations on stakeholders' expectations, a key feature of value-sensitive design. We also detail how Drivership comprises safety-centric behaviors and what we term socially-aware behaviors (where there are no clear safety stakes). Drivership supports multiple purposes, including advancing the understanding and evaluation of driving performance through benchmarking based on many criteria. As such, we argue that an appropriate framing of the notion of Drivership also underpins the overall development of a safety case. The paper explores these applications under the more general tenet of Drivership as a central element to roadway citizenship.

cs.CY

Dynamic Benchmarks: Spatial and Temporal Alignment for ADS Performance Evaluation

Deployed SAE level 4+ Automated Driving Systems (ADS) without a human driver are currently operational ride-hailing fleets on surface streets in the United States. This current use case and future applications of this technology will determine where and when the fleets operate, potentially resulting in a divergence from the distribution of driving of some human benchmark population within a given locality. Existing benchmarks for evaluating ADS performance have only done county-level geographical matching of the ADS and benchmark driving exposure in crash rates. This study presents a novel methodology for constructing dynamic human benchmarks that adjust for spatial and temporal variations in driving distribution between an ADS and the overall human driven fleet. Dynamic benchmarks were generated using human police-reported crash data, human vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data, and over 20 million miles of Waymo's rider-only (RO) operational data accumulated across three US counties. The spatial adjustment revealed significant differences across various severity levels in adjusted crash rates compared to unadjusted benchmarks with these differences ranging from 10% to 47% higher in San Francisco, 12% to 20% higher in Maricopa, and 7% lower to 34% higher in Los Angeles counties. The time-of-day adjustment in San Francisco, limited to this region due to data availability, resulted in adjusted crash rates 2% lower to 16% higher than unadjusted rates, depending on severity level. The findings underscore the importance of adjusting for spatial and temporal confounders in benchmarking analysis, which ultimately contributes to a more equitable benchmark for ADS performance evaluations.

cs.RO

RAVE Checklist: Recommendations for Overcoming Challenges in Retrospective Safety Studies of Automated Driving Systems

The public, regulators, and domain experts alike seek to understand the effect of deployed SAE level 4 automated driving system (ADS) technologies on safety. The recent expansion of ADS technology deployments is paving the way for early stage safety impact evaluations, whereby the observational data from both an ADS and a representative benchmark fleet are compared to quantify safety performance. In January 2024, a working group of experts across academia, insurance, and industry came together in Washington, DC to discuss the current and future challenges in performing such evaluations. A subset of this working group then met, virtually, on multiple occasions to produce this paper. This paper presents the RAVE (Retrospective Automated Vehicle Evaluation) checklist, a set of fifteen recommendations for performing and evaluating retrospective ADS performance comparisons. The recommendations are centered around the concepts of (1) quality and validity, (2) transparency, and (3) interpretation. Over time, it is anticipated there will be a large and varied body of work evaluating the observed performance of these ADS fleets. Establishing and promoting good scientific practices benefits the work of stakeholders, many of whom may not be subject matter experts. This working group's intentions are to: i) strengthen individual research studies and ii) make the at-large community more informed on how to evaluate this collective body of work.

cs.RO

Benchmarks for Retrospective Automated Driving System Crash Rate Analysis Using Police-Reported Crash Data

With fully automated driving systems (ADS; SAE level 4) ride-hailing services expanding in the US, we are now approaching an inflection point, where the process of retrospectively evaluating ADS safety impact can start to yield statistically credible conclusions. An ADS safety impact measurement requires a comparison to a "benchmark" crash rate. This study aims to address, update, and extend the existing literature by leveraging police-reported crashes to generate human crash rates for multiple geographic areas with current ADS deployments. All of the data leveraged is publicly accessible, and the benchmark determination methodology is intended to be repeatable and transparent. Generating a benchmark that is comparable to ADS crash data is associated with certain challenges, including data selection, handling underreporting and reporting thresholds, identifying the population of drivers and vehicles to compare against, choosing an appropriate severity level to assess, and matching crash and mileage exposure data. Consequently, we identify essential steps when generating benchmarks, and present our analyses amongst a backdrop of existing ADS benchmark literature. One analysis presented is the usage of established underreporting correction methodology to publicly available human driver police-reported data to improve comparability to publicly available ADS crash data. We also identify important dependencies in controlling for geographic region, road type, and vehicle type, and show how failing to control for these features can bias results. This body of work aims to contribute to the ability of the community - researchers, regulators, industry, and experts - to reach consensus on how to estimate accurate benchmarks.

cs.RO

Comparison of Waymo Rider-Only Crash Data to Human Benchmarks at 7.1 Million Miles

This paper examines the safety performance of the Waymo Driver, an SAE level 4 automated driving system (ADS) used in a rider-only (RO) ride-hailing application without a human driver, either in the vehicle or remotely. ADS crash data was derived from NHTSA's Standing General Order (SGO) reporting over 7.14 million RO miles through the end of October 2023 in Phoenix, AZ, San Francisco, CA, and Los Angeles, CA. When considering all locations together, the any-injury-reported crashed vehicle rate was 0.6 incidents per million miles (IPMM) for the ADS vs 2.80 IPMM for the human benchmark, an 80% reduction or a human crash rate that is 5 times higher than the ADS rate. Police-reported crashed vehicle rates for all locations together were 2.1 IPMM for the ADS vs. 4.68 IPMM for the human benchmark, a 55% reduction or a human crash rate that was 2.2 times higher than the ADS rate. Police-reported and any-injury-reported crashed vehicle rate reductions for the ADS were statistically significant when compared in San Francisco and Phoenix, as well as combined across all locations (except for any-injury-reported in Phoenix). The any property damage or injury comparison had statistically significant decrease in 3 comparisons, but also non-significant results in 3 other benchmarks. Given imprecision in the benchmark estimate and multiple potential sources of underreporting biasing the benchmarks, caution should be taken when interpreting the results of the any property damage or injury comparison. Together, these crash-rate results should be interpreted as a directional and continuous confidence growth indicator, together with other methodologies, in a safety case approach.

cs.RO

Comparative Safety Performance of Autonomous- and Human Drivers: A Real-World Case Study of the Waymo One Service

This study compares the safety of autonomous- and human drivers. It finds that the Waymo One autonomous service is significantly safer towards other road users than human drivers are, as measured via collision causation. The result is determined by comparing Waymo's third party liability insurance claims data with mileage- and zip-code-calibrated Swiss Re (human driver) private passenger vehicle baselines. A liability claim is a request for compensation when someone is responsible for damage to property or injury to another person, typically following a collision. Liability claims reporting and their development is designed using insurance industry best practices to assess crash causation contribution and predict future crash contributions. In over 3.8 million miles driven without a human being behind the steering wheel in rider-only (RO) mode, the Waymo Driver incurred zero bodily injury claims in comparison with the human driver baseline of 1.11 claims per million miles (cpmm). The Waymo Driver also significantly reduced property damage claims to 0.78 cpmm in comparison with the human driver baseline of 3.26 cpmm. Similarly, in a more statistically robust dataset of over 35 million miles during autonomous testing operations (TO), the Waymo Driver, together with a human autonomous specialist behind the steering wheel monitoring the automation, also significantly reduced both bodily injury and property damage cpmm compared to the human driver baselines.

cs.RO

Interpreting Safety Outcomes: Waymo's Performance Evaluation in the Context of a Broader Determination of Safety Readiness

This paper frames recent publications from Waymo within the broader context of the safety readiness determination for an Automated Driving System (ADS). Starting from a brief overview of safety performance outcomes reported by Waymo (i.e., contact events experienced during fully autonomous operations), this paper highlights the need for a diversified approach to safety determination that complements the analysis of observed safety outcomes with other estimation techniques. Our discussion highlights: the presentation of a "credibility paradox" within the comparison between ADS crash data and human-derived baselines; the recognition of continuous confidence growth through in-use monitoring; and the need to supplement any aggregate statistical analysis with appropriate event-level reasoning.

cs.SE

Building a Credible Case for Safety: Waymo's Approach for the Determination of Absence of Unreasonable Risk

This paper presents an overview of Waymo's approach to building a reliable case for safety - a novel and thorough blueprint for use by any company building fully autonomous driving systems. A safety case for fully autonomous operations is a formal way to explain how a company determines that an AV system is safe enough to be deployed on public roads without a human driver, and it includes evidence to support that determination. It involves an explanation of the system, the methodologies used to develop it, the metrics used to validate it and the actual results of validation tests. Yet, in order to develop a worthwhile safety case, it is first important to understand what makes one credible and well crafted, and align on evaluation criteria. This paper helps enabling such alignment by providing foundational thinking into not only how a system is determined to be ready for deployment but also into justifying that the set of acceptance criteria employed in such determination is sufficient and that their evaluation (and associated methods) is credible. The publication is structured around three complementary perspectives on safety that build upon content published by Waymo since 2020: a layered approach to safety; a dynamic approach to safety; and a credible approach to safety. The proposed approach is methodology-agnostic, so that anyone in the space could employ portions or all of it.

cs.CY

Collision Avoidance Testing of the Waymo Automated Driving System

This paper describes Waymo's Collision Avoidance Testing (CAT) methodology: a scenario-based testing method that evaluates the safety of the Waymo Driver Automated Driving Systems' (ADS) intended functionality in conflict situations initiated by other road users that require urgent evasive maneuvers. Because SAE Level 4 ADS are responsible for the dynamic driving task (DDT), when engaged, without immediate human intervention, evaluating a Level 4 ADS using scenario-based testing is difficult due to the potentially infinite number of operational scenarios in which hazardous situations may unfold. To that end, in this paper we first describe the safety test objectives for the CAT methodology, including the collision and serious injury metrics and the reference behavior model representing a non-impaired eyes on conflict human driver used to form an acceptance criterion. Afterward, we introduce the process for identifying potentially hazardous situations from a combination of human data, ADS testing data, and expert knowledge about the product design and associated Operational Design Domain (ODD). The test allocation and execution strategy is presented next, which exclusively utilize simulations constructed from sensor data collected on a test track, real-world driving, or from simulated sensor data. The paper concludes with the presentation of results from applying CAT to the fully autonomous ride-hailing service that Waymo operates in San Francisco, California and Phoenix, Arizona. The iterative nature of scenario identification, combined with over ten years of experience of on-road testing, results in a scenario database that converges to a representative set of responder role scenarios for a given ODD. Using Waymo's virtual test platform, which is calibrated to data collected as part of many years of ADS development, the CAT methodology provides a robust and scalable safety evaluation.

cs.RO

Waymo's Fatigue Risk Management Framework: Prevention, Monitoring, and Mitigation of Fatigue-Induced Risks while Testing Automated Driving Systems

This report presents Waymo's proposal for a systematic fatigue risk management framework that addresses prevention, monitoring, and mitigation of fatigue-induced risks during on-road testing of ADS technology. The proposed framework remains flexible to incorporate continuous improvements, and was informed by state of the art practices, research, learnings, and experience (both internal and external to Waymo). Fatigue is a recognized contributory factor in a substantial fraction of on-road crashes involving human drivers, and mitigation of fatigue-induced risks is still an open concern researched world-wide. While the proposed framework was specifically designed in relation to on-road testing of SAE Level 4 ADS technology, it has implications and applicability to lower levels of automation as well.

cs.RO

Waymo Public Road Safety Performance Data

Waymo's mission to reduce traffic injuries and fatalities and improve mobility for all has led us to expand deployment of automated vehicles on public roads without a human driver behind the wheel. As part of this process, Waymo is committed to providing the public with informative and relevant data regarding the demonstrated safety of Waymo's automated driving system, which we call the Waymo Driver. The data presented in this paper represents more than 6.1 million miles of automated driving in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area, including operations with a trained operator behind the steering wheel from calendar year 2019 and 65,000 miles of driverless operation without a human behind the steering wheel from 2019 and the first nine months of 2020. The paper includes every collision and minor contact experienced during these operations as well as every predicted contact identified using Waymo's counterfactual, what if, simulation of events had the vehicle's trained operator not disengaged automated driving. There were 47 contact events that occurred over this time period, consisting of 18 actual and 29 simulated contact events, none of which would be expected to result in severe or life threatening injuries. This paper presents the collision typology and severity for each actual and simulated event, along with diagrams depicting each of the most significant events. Nearly all the events involved one or more road rule violations or other errors by a human driver or road user, including all eight of the most severe events, which we define as involving actual or expected airbag deployment in any involved vehicle. When compared to national collision statistics, the Waymo Driver completely avoided certain collision modes that human driven vehicles are frequently involved in, including road departure and collisions with fixed objects.

cs.RO

Waymo's Safety Methodologies and Safety Readiness Determinations

Waymo's safety methodologies, which draw on well established engineering processes and address new safety challenges specific to Automated Vehicle technology, provide a firm foundation for safe deployment of Waymo's Level 4 ADS, which Waymo also refers to as the Waymo Driver. Waymo's determination of its readiness to deploy its AVs safely in different settings rests on that firm foundation and on a thorough analysis of risks specific to a particular Operational Design Domain. Waymo's process for making these readiness determinations entails an ordered examination of the relevant outputs from all of its safety methodologies combined with careful safety and engineering judgment focused on the specific facts relevant for a particular determination. Waymo will approve when it determines the ADS is ready for the new conditions without creating any unreasonable risks to safety. This paper explains Waymo's methodologies as applied to the three layers of its technology: hardware, ADS behavior, and operations, and also explains Waymo's safety governance. Waymo will continue to apply and adapt those methodologies, and to learn from the important contributions of others in the AV industry, as Waymo continues to build an ever safer and more able ADS.

cs.RO

Owl and Lizard: Patterns of Head Pose and Eye Pose in Driver Gaze Classification

Accurate, robust, inexpensive gaze tracking in the car can help keep a driver safe by facilitating the more effective study of how to improve (1) vehicle interfaces and (2) the design of future Advanced Driver Assistance Systems. In this paper, we estimate head pose and eye pose from monocular video using methods developed extensively in prior work and ask two new interesting questions. First, how much better can we classify driver gaze using head and eye pose versus just using head pose? Second, are there individual-specific gaze strategies that strongly correlate with how much gaze classification improves with the addition of eye pose information? We answer these questions by evaluating data drawn from an on-road study of 40 drivers. The main insight of the paper is conveyed through the analogy of an "owl" and "lizard" which describes the degree to which the eyes and the head move when shifting gaze. When the head moves a lot ("owl"), not much classification improvement is attained by estimating eye pose on top of head pose. On the other hand, when the head stays still and only the eyes move ("lizard"), classification accuracy increases significantly from adding in eye pose. We characterize how that accuracy varies between people, gaze strategies, and gaze regions.

cs.CV

Investigating Drivers' Head and Glance Correspondence

The relationship between a driver's glance pattern and corresponding head rotation is highly complex due to its nonlinear dependence on the individual, task, and driving context. This study explores the ability of head pose to serve as an estimator for driver gaze by connecting head rotation data with manually coded gaze region data using both a statistical analysis approach and a predictive (i.e., machine learning) approach. For the latter, classification accuracy increased as visual angles between two glance locations increased. In other words, the greater the shift in gaze, the higher the accuracy of classification. This is an intuitive but important concept that we make explicit through our analysis. The highest accuracy achieved was 83% using the method of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) for the binary gaze classification problem of (1) the forward roadway versus (2) the center stack. Results suggest that although there are individual differences in head-glance correspondence while driving, classifier models based on head-rotation data may be robust to these differences and therefore can serve as reasonable estimators for glance location. The results suggest that driver head pose can be used as a surrogate for eye gaze in several key conditions including the identification of high-eccentricity glances. Inexpensive driver head pose tracking may be a key element in detection systems developed to mitigate driver distraction and inattention.

cs.OH