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Trevor F. Keenan

Publications and source records attributed to Trevor F. Keenan.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Earth Observation Foundation Models for Terrestrial Ecohydrology: From Representation Learning to Process Inference

Earth observation foundation models (EOFMs) are emerging as reusable representation frameworks for data-driven retrieval, prediction and process modelling within ecohydrology, which integrate EO, meteorological forcing and process models to characterise coupled water, energy and carbon dynamics in vegetation and soil across scales. However, there is yet to be an ecohydrology-specific synthesis assessing the EOFM relevance, application evidence or evaluation requirements under uncertain reference data, scale mismatch and temporal dependence. Here, we develop a framework for determining when EOFMs support interpretable inference and identify a mismatch between EOFMs and ecohydrological requirements. Firstly, an observation-to-inference hierarchy shows that relevance depends on target-specific sensing pathways, spatial-temporal support and traceable uncertainty. Secondly, a meta-analysis shows that pretraining is dominated by reflected optical and active-microwave data, with sparse thermal coverage and no passive-microwave-emission sources. Thirdly, our synthesis of ecohydrological applications finds strongest support for spatial context, label-efficient adaptation and hybrid workflows. Evidence declines with inference depth; independent validation of fluxes, coupled dynamics, event trajectories, calibrated uncertainty and decision benefits remains sparse. Fourthly, our benchmark audit finds stronger coverage of fair adaptation and reproducibility in general EOFM suites, and of process targets, direct reference evidence and distribution shifts in ecohydrological evaluations; physical consistency and uncertainty remain weakly assessed. These findings motivate a process-aware framework aligning EOFM design and evaluation with the target variable, observation pathway and process timescale, supporting trustworthy monitoring and interpretation of coupled water, energy and carbon dynamics.

cs.LG↗

Diagnosing syndromes of biosphere-atmosphere-socioeconomic change

It is increasingly recognized that the multiple and systemic impacts of Earth system change threaten the prosperity of society through altered land carbon dynamics, freshwater variability, biodiversity loss, and climate extremes. For example, in 2022, there are about 400 climate extremes and natural hazards worldwide, resulting in significant losses of lives and economic damage. Beyond these losses, comprehensive assessment on societal well-being, ecosystem services, and carbon dynamics are often understudied. The rapid expansion of geospatial, atmospheric, and socioeconomic data provides an unprecedented opportunity to develop systemic indices to account for a more comprehensive spectrum of Earth system change risks and to assess their socioeconomic impacts. We propose a novel approach based on the concept of syndromes that can integrate synchronized changes in biosphere, atmosphere, and socioeconomic trajectories into distinct co-evolving phenomena. While the syndrome concept was applied in policy related to environmental conservation, it has not been deciphered from systematic data-driven approaches capable of providing a more comprehensive diagnosis of anthropogenic impacts. By advocating interactive dimensionality reduction approaches, we can identify key interconnected socio-environmental changes as syndromes from big data. We recommend future research tailoring syndromes by incorporating granular data, particularly socio-economic, into dimensionality reduction at different spatio-temporal scales to better diagnose regional-to-global atmospheric and environmental changes that are relevant for socioeconomic changes.

physics.geo-ph↗