arXiv subjects

Tridib Mukherjee

Publications and source records attributed to Tridib Mukherjee.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Quantitative Rule-Based Strategy modeling in Classic Indian Rummy: A Metric Optimization Approach

The 13-card variant of Classic Indian Rummy is a sequential game of incomplete information that requires probabilistic reasoning and combinatorial decision-making. This paper proposes a rule-based framework for strategic play, driven by a new hand-evaluation metric termed MinDist. The metric modifies the MinScore metric by quantifying the edit distance between a hand and the nearest valid configuration, thereby capturing structural proximity to completion. We design a computationally efficient algorithm derived from the MinScore algorithm, leveraging dynamic pruning and pattern caching to exactly calculate this metric during play. Opponent hand-modeling is also incorporated within a two-player zero-sum simulation framework, and the resulting strategies are evaluated using statistical hypothesis testing. Empirical results show significant improvement in win rates for MinDist-based agents over traditional heuristics, providing a formal and interpretable step toward algorithmic Rummy strategy design.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Analyzing Skill Element in Online Fantasy Cricket

Online fantasy cricket has emerged as large-scale competitive systems in which participants construct virtual teams and compete based on real-world player performances. This massive growth has been accompanied by important questions about whether outcomes are primarily driven by skill or chance. We develop a statistical framework to assess the role of skill in determining success on these platforms. We construct and analyze a range of deterministic and stochastic team selection strategies, based on recent form, historical statistics, statistical optimization, and multi-criteria decision making. Strategy performance is evaluated based on points, ranks, and payoff under two contest structures Mega and 4x or Nothing. An extensive comparison between different strategies is made to find an optimal set of strategies. To capture adaptive behavior, we further introduce a dynamic tournament model in which agent populations evolve through a softmax reweighting mechanism proportional to positive payoff realizations. We demonstrate our work by running extensive numerical experiments on the IPL 2024 dataset. The results provide quantitative evidence in favor of the skill element present in online fantasy cricket platforms.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

Adapting Skill Ratings to Luck-Based Hidden-Information Games

Rating systems play a crucial role in evaluating player skill across competitive environments. The Elo rating system, originally designed for deterministic and information-complete games such as chess, has been widely adopted and modified in various domains. However, the traditional Elo rating system only considers game outcomes for rating calculation and assumes uniform initial states across players. This raises important methodological challenges in skill modelling for popular partially randomized incomplete-information games such as Rummy. In this paper, we examine the limitations of conventional Elo ratings when applied to luck-driven environments and propose a modified Elo framework specifically tailored for Rummy. Our approach incorporates score-based performance metrics and explicitly models the influence of initial hand quality to disentangle skill from luck. Through extensive simulations involving 270,000 games across six strategies of varying sophistication, we demonstrate that our proposed system achieves stable convergence, superior discriminative power, and enhanced predictive accuracy compared to traditional Elo formulations. The framework maintains computational simplicity while effectively capturing the interplay of skill, strategy, and randomness, with broad applicability to other stochastic competitive environments.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

Analysing Skill Predominance in Generalized Fantasy Cricket

In fantasy sports, strategic thinking-not mere luck-often defines who wins and who falls short. As fantasy cricket grows in popularity across India, understanding whether success stems from skill or chance has become both an analytical and regulatory question. This study introduces a new limited-selection contest framework in which participants choose from four expert-designed teams and share prizes based on the highest cumulative score. By combining simulation experiments with real performance data from the 2024 Indian Premier League (IPL), we evaluate whether measurable skill emerges within this structure. Results reveal that strategic and informed team selection consistently outperforms random choice, underscoring a clear skill advantage that persists despite stochastic variability. The analysis quantifies how team composition, inter-team correlation, and participant behaviour jointly influence winning probabilities, highlighting configurations where skill becomes statistically dominant. These findings provide actionable insights for players seeking to maximise returns through strategy and for platform designers aiming to develop fair, transparent, and engaging skill-based gaming ecosystems that balance competition with regulatory compliance.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Empirical parameterization of the Elo Rating System

This study aims to provide a data-driven approach for empirically tuning and validating rating systems, focusing on the Elo system. Well-known rating frameworks, such as Elo, Glicko, TrueSkill systems, rely on parameters that are usually chosen based on probabilistic assumptions or conventions, and do not utilize game-specific data. To address this issue, we propose a methodology that learns optimal parameter values by maximizing the predictive accuracy of match outcomes. The proposed parameter-tuning framework is a generalizable method that can be extended to any rating system, even for multiplayer setups, through suitable modification of the parameter space. Implementation of the rating system on real and simulated gameplay data demonstrates the suitability of the data-driven rating system in modeling player performance.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

ScarceGAN: Discriminative Classification Framework for Rare Class Identification for Longitudinal Data with Weak Prior

This paper introduces ScarceGAN which focuses on identification of extremely rare or scarce samples from multi-dimensional longitudinal telemetry data with small and weak label prior. We specifically address: (i) severe scarcity in positive class, stemming from both underlying organic skew in the data, as well as extremely limited labels; (ii) multi-class nature of the negative samples, with uneven density distributions and partially overlapping feature distributions; and (iii) massively unlabelled data leading to tiny and weak prior on both positive and negative classes, and possibility of unseen or unknown behavior in the unlabelled set, especially in the negative class. Although related to PU learning problems, we contend that knowledge (or lack of it) on the negative class can be leveraged to learn the compliment of it (i.e., the positive class) better in a semi-supervised manner. To this effect, ScarceGAN re-formulates semi-supervised GAN by accommodating weakly labelled multi-class negative samples and the available positive samples. It relaxes the supervised discriminator's constraint on exact differentiation between negative samples by introducing a 'leeway' term for samples with noisy prior. We propose modifications to the cost objectives of discriminator, in supervised and unsupervised path as well as that of the generator. For identifying risky players in skill gaming, this formulation in whole gives us a recall of over 85% (~60% jump over vanilla semi-supervised GAN) on our scarce class with very minimal verbosity in the unknown space. Further ScarceGAN outperforms the recall benchmarks established by recent GAN based specialized models for the positive imbalanced class identification and establishes a new benchmark in identifying one of rare attack classes (0.09%) in the intrusion dataset from the KDDCUP99 challenge.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

CognitionNet: A Collaborative Neural Network for Play Style Discovery in Online Skill Gaming Platform

Games are one of the safest source of realizing self-esteem and relaxation at the same time. An online gaming platform typically has massive data coming in, e.g., in-game actions, player moves, clickstreams, transactions etc. It is rather interesting, as something as simple as data on gaming moves can help create a psychological imprint of the user at that moment, based on her impulsive reactions and response to a situation in the game. Mining this knowledge can: (a) immediately help better explain observed and predicted player behavior; and (b) consequently propel deeper understanding towards players' experience, growth and protection. To this effect, we focus on discovery of the "game behaviours" as micro-patterns formed by continuous sequence of games and the persistent "play styles" of the players' as a sequence of such sequences on an online skill gaming platform for Rummy. We propose a two stage deep neural network, CognitionNet. The first stage focuses on mining game behaviours as cluster representations in a latent space while the second aggregates over these micro patterns to discover play styles via a supervised classification objective around player engagement. The dual objective allows CognitionNet to reveal several player psychology inspired decision making and tactics. To our knowledge, this is the first and one-of-its-kind research to fully automate the discovery of: (i) player psychology and game tactics from telemetry data; and (ii) relevant diagnostic explanations to players' engagement predictions. The collaborative training of the two networks with differential input dimensions is enabled using a novel formulation of "bridge loss". The network plays pivotal role in obtaining homogeneous and consistent play style definitions and significantly outperforms the SOTA baselines wherever applicable.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

FAST-Q: Fast-track Exploration with Adversarially Balanced State Representations for Counterfactual Action Estimation in Offline Reinforcement Learning

Recent advancements in state-of-the-art (SOTA) offline reinforcement learning (RL) have primarily focused on addressing function approximation errors, which contribute to the overestimation of Q-values for out-of-distribution actions, a challenge that static datasets exacerbate. However, high stakes applications such as recommendation systems in online gaming, introduce further complexities due to player's psychology (intent) driven by gameplay experiences and the inherent volatility on the platform. These factors create highly sparse, partially overlapping state spaces across policies, further influenced by the experiment path selection logic which biases state spaces towards specific policies. Current SOTA methods constrain learning from such offline data by clipping known counterfactual actions as out-of-distribution due to poor generalization across unobserved states. Further aggravating conservative Q-learning and necessitating more online exploration. FAST-Q introduces a novel approach that (1) leverages Gradient Reversal Learning to construct balanced state representations, regularizing the policy-specific bias between the player's state and action thereby enabling counterfactual estimation; (2) supports offline counterfactual exploration in parallel with static data exploitation; and (3) proposes a Q-value decomposition strategy for multi-objective optimization, facilitating explainable recommendations over short and long-term objectives. These innovations demonstrate superiority of FAST-Q over prior SOTA approaches and demonstrates at least 0.15 percent increase in player returns, 2 percent improvement in lifetime value (LTV), 0.4 percent enhancement in the recommendation driven engagement, 2 percent improvement in the player's platform dwell time and an impressive 10 percent reduction in the costs associated with the recommendation, on our volatile gaming platform.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Explainable and Interpretable Forecasts on Non-Smooth Multivariate Time Series for Responsible Gameplay

Multi-variate Time Series (MTS) forecasting has made large strides (with very negligible errors) through recent advancements in neural networks, e.g., Transformers. However, in critical situations like predicting gaming overindulgence that affects one's mental well-being; an accurate forecast without a contributing evidence (explanation) is irrelevant. Hence, it becomes important that the forecasts are Interpretable - intermediate representation of the forecasted trajectory is comprehensible; as well as Explainable - attentive input features and events are accessible for a personalized and timely intervention of players at risk. While the contributing state of the art research on interpretability primarily focuses on temporally-smooth single-process driven time series data, our online multi-player gameplay data demonstrates intractable temporal randomness due to intrinsic orthogonality between player's game outcome and their intent to engage further. We introduce a novel deep Actionable Forecasting Network (AFN), which addresses the inter-dependent challenges associated with three exclusive objectives - 1) forecasting accuracy; 2) smooth comprehensible trajectory and 3) explanations via multi-dimensional input features while tackling the challenges introduced by our non-smooth temporal data, together in one single solution. AFN establishes a \it{new benchmark} via: (i) achieving 25% improvement on the MSE of the forecasts on player data in comparison to the SOM-VAE based SOTA networks; (ii) attributing unfavourable progression of a player's time series to a specific future time step(s), with the premise of eliminating near-future overindulgent player volume by over 18% with player specific actionable inputs feature(s) and (iii) proactively detecting over 23% (100% jump from SOTA) of the to-be overindulgent, players on an average, 4 weeks in advance.

cs.LG↗