arXiv subjects

Tso-Jung Yen

Publications and source records attributed to Tso-Jung Yen.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Generative and Nonparametric Approaches for Conditional Distribution Estimation: Methods, Perspectives, and Comparative Evaluations

The inference of conditional distributions is a fundamental problem in statistics, essential for prediction, uncertainty quantification, and probabilistic modeling. A wide range of methodologies have been developed for this task. This article reviews and compares several representative approaches spanning classical nonparametric methods and modern generative models. We begin with the single-index method of Hall and Yao (2005), which estimates the conditional distribution through a dimension-reducing index and nonparametric smoothing of the resulting one-dimensional cumulative conditional distribution function. We then examine the basis-expansion approaches, including FlexCode (Izbicki and Lee, 2017) and DeepCDE (Dalmasso et al., 2020), which convert conditional density estimation into a set of nonparametric regression problems. In addition, we discuss two recent generative simulation-based methods that leverage modern deep generative architectures: the generative conditional distribution sampler (Zhou et al., 2023) and the conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic model (Fu et al., 2024; Yang et al., 2025). A systematic numerical comparison of these approaches is provided using a unified evaluation framework that ensures fairness and reproducibility. The performance metrics used for the estimated conditional distribution include the mean-squared errors of conditional mean and standard deviation, as well as the Wasserstein distance. We also discuss their flexibility and computational costs, highlighting the distinct advantages and limitations of each approach.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Testing Forecast Accuracy of Expectiles and Quantiles with the Extremal Consistent Loss Functions

Forecast evaluations aim to choose an accurate forecast for making decisions by using loss functions. However, different loss functions often generate different ranking results for forecasts, which complicates the task of comparisons. In this paper, we develop statistical tests for comparing performances of forecasting expectiles and quantiles of a random variable under consistent loss functions. The test statistics are constructed with the extremal consistent loss functions of Ehm et.al. (2016). The null hypothesis of the tests is that a benchmark forecast at least performs equally well as a competing one under all extremal consistent loss functions. It can be shown that if such a null holds, the benchmark will also perform at least equally well as the competitor under all consistent loss functions. Thus under the null, when different consistent loss functions are used, the result that the competitor does not outperform the benchmark will not be altered. We establish asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics and propose to use the re-centered bootstrap to construct their empirical distributions. Through simulations, we show the proposed test statistics perform reasonably well. We then apply the proposed method on (1) re-examining abilities of some often-used predictors on forecasting risk premium of the S&P500 index; (2) comparing performances of experts' forecasts on annual growth of U.S. real gross domestic product; (3) evaluating performances of estimated daily value at risk of the S&P500 index.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2012

A majorization-minimization approach to variable selection using spike and slab priors

We develop a method to carry out MAP estimation for a class of Bayesian regression models in which coefficients are assigned with Gaussian-based spike and slab priors. The objective function in the corresponding optimization problem has a Lagrangian form in that regression coefficients are regularized by a mixture of squared $l_2$ and $l_0$ norms. A tight approximation to the $l_0$ norm using majorization-minimization techniques is derived, and a coordinate descent algorithm in conjunction with a soft-thresholding scheme is used in searching for the optimizer of the approximate objective. Simulation studies show that the proposed method can lead to more accurate variable selection than other benchmark methods. Theoretical results show that under regular conditions, sign consistency can be established, even when the Irrepresentable Condition is violated. Results on posterior model consistency and estimation consistency, and an extension to parameter estimation in the generalized linear models are provided.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2011

Grouped Variable Selection via Nested Spike and Slab Priors

In this paper we study grouped variable selection problems by proposing a specified prior, called the nested spike and slab prior, to model collective behavior of regression coefficients. At the group level, the nested spike and slab prior puts positive mass on the event that the l2-norm of the grouped coefficients is equal to zero. At the individual level, each coefficient is assumed to follow a spike and slab prior. We carry out maximum a posteriori estimation for the model by applying blockwise coordinate descent algorithms to solve an optimization problem involving an approximate objective modified by majorization-minimization techniques. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimator performs relatively well in the situations in which the true and redundant covariates are both covered by the same group. Asymptotic analysis under a frequentist's framework further shows that the l2 estimation error of the proposed estimator can have a better upper bound if the group that covers the true covariates does not cover too many redundant covariates. In addition, given some regular conditions hold, the proposed estimator is asymptotically invariant to group structures, and its model selection consistency can be established without imposing irrepresentable-type conditions.

stat.ME↗