arXiv subjects

Tudor Manole

Publications and source records attributed to Tudor Manole.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Fidelity-Diversity Metrics for Text

As language modeling technology matures, there is an increasing research focus on the composition and curation of datasets used to train these models. For instance, practitioners commonly seek to augment high-quality datasets with additional text to enhance the performance of models trained on that data. However, informed decisions about data augmentation require more nuanced assessments about data quality. We build on work measuring the precision and recall of generative models to develop a pair of metrics that quantify (1) fidelity, capturing how closely candidate text resembles reference data, and (2) diversity, capturing how well it covers the modes of the reference dataset. Our metrics are based on optimal transport divergence functionals between discrete text summaries. In experiments on M2D2 text datasets, we show that these metrics are able to disentangle a lack of fidelity from a lack of diversity in deficient candidate text. In further experiments, our metrics detect diversity deficits in synthetic GSM8K-style math datasets, which correlate with degradations in downstream accuracy of language models finetuned on this synthetic data.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Testing Imprecise Hypotheses

Many scientific applications involve testing theories that are only partially specified. This task often amounts to testing the goodness-of-fit of a candidate distribution while allowing for reasonable deviations from it. The tolerant testing framework provides a systematic way of constructing such tests. Rather than testing the simple null hypothesis that data was drawn from a candidate distribution, a tolerant test assesses whether the data is consistent with any distribution that lies within a given neighborhood of the candidate. As this neighborhood grows, the tolerance to misspecification increases, while the power of the test decreases. In this work, we characterize the information-theoretic trade-off between the size of the neighborhood and the power of the test, in several canonical models. On the one hand, we characterize the optimal trade-off for tolerant testing in the Gaussian sequence model, under deviations measured in both smooth and non-smooth norms. On the other hand, we study nonparametric analogues of this problem in smooth regression and density models. Along the way, we establish the sub-optimality of the classical chi-squared statistic for tolerant testing, and study simple alternative hypothesis tests.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

How much can we learn from quantum random circuit sampling?

Benchmarking quantum devices is a foundational task for the sustained development of quantum technologies. However, accurate in situ characterization of large-scale quantum devices remains a formidable challenge: such systems experience many different sources of errors, and cannot be simulated on classical computers. Here, we introduce new benchmarking methods based on random circuit sampling (RCS), that substantially extend the scope of conventional approaches. Unlike existing benchmarks that report only a single quantity--the circuit fidelity--our framework extracts rich diagnostic information, including spatiotemporal error profiles, correlated and contextual errors, and biased readout errors, without requiring any modifications of the experiment. Furthermore, we develop techniques that achieve this task without classically intractable simulations of the quantum circuit, by leveraging side information, in the form of bitstring samples obtained from reference quantum devices. Our approach is based on advanced high-dimensional statistical modeling of RCS data. We sharply characterize the information-theoretic limits of error estimation, deriving matching upper and lower bounds on the sample complexity across all regimes of side information. We identify surprising phase transitions in learnability as the amount of side information varies. We demonstrate our methods using publicly available RCS data from a state-of-the-art superconducting processor, obtaining in situ characterizations that are qualitatively consistent yet quantitatively distinct from component-level calibrations. Our results establish both practical benchmarking protocols for current and future quantum computers and fundamental information-theoretic limits on how much can be learned from RCS data.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2025

Local Poisson Deconvolution for Discrete Signals

We analyze the statistical problem of recovering an atomic signal, modeled as a discrete uniform distribution $\mu$, from a binned Poisson convolution model. This question is motivated, among others, by super-resolution laser microscopy applications, where precise estimation of $\mu$ provides insights into spatial formations of cellular protein assemblies. Our main results quantify the local minimax risk of estimating $\mu$ for a broad class of smooth convolution kernels. This local perspective enables us to sharply quantify optimal estimation rates as a function of the clustering structure of the underlying signal. Moreover, our results are expressed under a multiscale loss function, which reveals that different parts of the underlying signal can be recovered at different rates depending on their local geometry. Overall, these results paint an optimistic perspective on the Poisson deconvolution problem, showing that accurate recovery is achievable under a much broader class of signals than suggested by existing global minimax analyses. Beyond Poisson deconvolution, our results also allow us to establish the local minimax rate of parameter estimation in Gaussian mixture models with uniform weights. We apply our methods to experimental super-resolution microscopy data to identify the location and configuration of individual DNA origamis. In addition, we complement our findings with numerical experiments on runtime and statistical recovery that showcase the practical performance of our estimators and their trade-offs.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Statistical Inference for Optimal Transport Maps: Recent Advances and Perspectives

In many applications of optimal transport (OT), the object of primary interest is the optimal transport map. This map rearranges mass from one probability distribution to another in the most efficient way possible by minimizing a specified cost. In this paper we review recent advances in estimating and developing limit theorems for the OT map, using samples from the underlying distributions. We also review parallel lines of work that establish similar results for special cases and variants of the basic OT setup. We conclude with a discussion of key directions for future research with the goal of providing practitioners with reliable inferential tools.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Stability Bounds for Smooth Optimal Transport Maps and their Statistical Implications

We study estimators of the optimal transport (OT) map between two probability distributions. We focus on plugin estimators derived from the OT map between estimates of the underlying distributions. We develop novel stability bounds for OT maps which generalize those in past work, and allow us to reduce the problem of optimally estimating the transport map to that of optimally estimating densities in the Wasserstein distance. In contrast, past work provided a partial connection between these problems and relied on regularity theory for the Monge-Ampere equation to bridge the gap, a step which required unnatural assumptions to obtain sharp guarantees. We also provide some new insights into the connections between stability bounds which arise in the analysis of plugin estimators and growth bounds for the semi-dual functional which arise in the analysis of Brenier potential-based estimators of the transport map. We illustrate the applicability of our new stability bounds by revisiting the smooth setting studied by Manole et al., analyzing two of their estimators under more general conditions. Critically, our bounds do not require smoothness or boundedness assumptions on the underlying measures. As an illustrative application, we develop and analyze a novel tuning parameter-free estimator for the OT map between two strongly log-concave distributions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Sharp Convergence Rates for Empirical Optimal Transport with Smooth Costs

We revisit the question of characterizing the convergence rate of plug-in estimators of optimal transport costs. It is well known that an empirical measure comprising independent samples from an absolutely continuous distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d$ converges to that distribution at the rate $n^{-1/d}$ in Wasserstein distance, which can be used to prove that plug-in estimators of many optimal transport costs converge at this same rate. However, we show that when the cost is smooth, this analysis is loose: plug-in estimators based on empirical measures converge quadratically faster, at the rate $n^{-2/d}$. As a corollary, we show that the Wasserstein distance between two distributions is significantly easier to estimate when the measures are well-separated. We also prove lower bounds, showing not only that our analysis of the plug-in estimator is tight, but also that no other estimator can enjoy significantly faster rates of convergence uniformly over all pairs of measures. Our proofs rely on empirical process theory arguments based on tight control of $L^2$ covering numbers for locally Lipschitz and semi-concave functions. As a byproduct of our proofs, we derive $L^\infty$ estimates on the displacement induced by the optimal coupling between any two measures satisfying suitable concentration and anticoncentration conditions, for a wide range of cost functions.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Central Limit Theorems for Smooth Optimal Transport Maps

One of the central objects in the theory of optimal transport is the Brenier map: the unique monotone transformation which pushes forward an absolutely continuous probability law onto any other given law. A line of recent work has analyzed $L^2$ convergence rates of plugin estimators of Brenier maps, which are defined as the Brenier map between density estimators of the underlying distributions. In this work, we show that such estimators satisfy a pointwise central limit theorem when the underlying laws are supported on the flat torus of dimension $d \geq 3$. We also derive a negative result, showing that these estimators do not converge weakly in $L^2$ when the dimension is sufficiently large. Our proofs hinge upon a quantitative linearization of the Monge-Amp\`ere equation, which may be of independent interest. This result allows us to reduce our problem to that of deriving limit laws for the solution of a uniformly elliptic partial differential equation with a stochastic right-hand side, subject to periodic boundary conditions.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Randomized and Exchangeable Improvements of Markov's, Chebyshev's and Chernoff's Inequalities

We present simple randomized and exchangeable improvements of Markov's inequality, as well as Chebyshev's inequality and Chernoff bounds. Our variants are never worse and typically strictly more powerful than the original inequalities. The proofs are short and elementary, and can easily yield similarly randomized or exchangeable versions of a host of other inequalities that employ Markov's inequality as an intermediate step. We point out some simple statistical applications involving tests that combine dependent e-values. In particular, we uniformly improve the power of universal inference, and obtain tighter betting-based nonparametric confidence intervals. Simulations reveal nontrivial gains in power (and no losses) in a variety of settings.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Martingale Methods for Sequential Estimation of Convex Functionals and Divergences

We present a unified technique for sequential estimation of convex divergences between distributions, including integral probability metrics like the kernel maximum mean discrepancy, $φ$-divergences like the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and optimal transport costs, such as powers of Wasserstein distances. This is achieved by observing that empirical convex divergences are (partially ordered) reverse submartingales with respect to the exchangeable filtration, coupled with maximal inequalities for such processes. These techniques appear to be complementary and powerful additions to the existing literature on both confidence sequences and convex divergences. We construct an offline-to-sequential device that converts a wide array of existing offline concentration inequalities into time-uniform confidence sequences that can be continuously monitored, providing valid tests or confidence intervals at arbitrary stopping times. The resulting sequential bounds pay only an iterated logarithmic price over the corresponding fixed-time bounds, retaining the same dependence on problem parameters (like dimension or alphabet size if applicable). These results are also applicable to more general convex functionals -- like the negative differential entropy, suprema of empirical processes, and V-Statistics -- and to more general processes satisfying a key leave-one-out property.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Background Modeling for Double Higgs Boson Production: Density Ratios and Optimal Transport

We study the problem of data-driven background estimation, arising in the search of physics signals predicted by the Standard Model at the Large Hadron Collider. Our work is motivated by the search for the production of pairs of Higgs bosons decaying into four bottom quarks. A number of other physical processes, known as background, also share the same final state. The data arising in this problem is therefore a mixture of unlabeled background and signal events, and the primary aim of the analysis is to determine whether the proportion of unlabeled signal events is nonzero. A challenging but necessary first step is to estimate the distribution of background events. Past work in this area has determined regions of the space of collider events where signal is unlikely to appear, and where the background distribution is therefore identifiable. The background distribution can be estimated in these regions, and extrapolated into the region of primary interest using transfer learning with a multivariate classifier. We build upon this existing approach in two ways. First, we revisit this method by developing a customized residual neural network which is tailored to the structure and symmetries of collider data. Second, we develop a new method for background estimation, based on the optimal transport problem, which relies on modeling assumptions distinct from earlier work. These two methods can serve as cross-checks for each other in particle physics analyses, due to the complementarity of their underlying assumptions. We compare their performance on simulated double Higgs boson data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Refined Convergence Rates for Maximum Likelihood Estimation under Finite Mixture Models

We revisit the classical problem of deriving convergence rates for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in finite mixture models. The Wasserstein distance has become a standard loss function for the analysis of parameter estimation in these models, due in part to its ability to circumvent label switching and to accurately characterize the behaviour of fitted mixture components with vanishing weights. However, the Wasserstein distance is only able to capture the worst-case convergence rate among the remaining fitted mixture components. We demonstrate that when the log-likelihood function is penalized to discourage vanishing mixing weights, stronger loss functions can be derived to resolve this shortcoming of the Wasserstein distance. These new loss functions accurately capture the heterogeneity in convergence rates of fitted mixture components, and we use them to sharpen existing pointwise and uniform convergence rates in various classes of mixture models. In particular, these results imply that a subset of the components of the penalized MLE typically converge significantly faster than could have been anticipated from past work. We further show that some of these conclusions extend to the traditional MLE. Our theoretical findings are supported by a simulation study to illustrate these improved convergence rates.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Minimax Confidence Intervals for the Sliced Wasserstein Distance

Motivated by the growing popularity of variants of the Wasserstein distance in statistics and machine learning, we study statistical inference for the Sliced Wasserstein distance--an easily computable variant of the Wasserstein distance. Specifically, we construct confidence intervals for the Sliced Wasserstein distance which have finite-sample validity under no assumptions or under mild moment assumptions. These intervals are adaptive in length to the regularity of the underlying distributions. We also bound the minimax risk of estimating the Sliced Wasserstein distance, and as a consequence establish that the lengths of our proposed confidence intervals are minimax optimal over appropriate distribution classes. To motivate the choice of these classes, we also study minimax rates of estimating a distribution under the Sliced Wasserstein distance. These theoretical findings are complemented with a simulation study demonstrating the deficiencies of the classical bootstrap, and the advantages of our proposed methods. We also show strong correspondences between our theoretical predictions and the adaptivity of our confidence interval lengths in simulations. We conclude by demonstrating the use of our confidence intervals in the setting of simulator-based likelihood-free inference. In this setting, contrasting popular approximate Bayesian computation methods, we develop uncertainty quantification methods with rigorous frequentist coverage guarantees.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Estimating the Number of Components in Finite Mixture Models via the Group-Sort-Fuse Procedure

Estimation of the number of components (or order) of a finite mixture model is a long standing and challenging problem in statistics. We propose the Group-Sort-Fuse (GSF) procedure -- a new penalized likelihood approach for simultaneous estimation of the order and mixing measure in multidimensional finite mixture models. Unlike methods which fit and compare mixtures with varying orders using criteria involving model complexity, our approach directly penalizes a continuous function of the model parameters. More specifically, given a conservative upper bound on the order, the GSF groups and sorts mixture component parameters to fuse those which are redundant. For a wide range of finite mixture models, we show that the GSF is consistent in estimating the true mixture order and achieves the $n^{-1/2}$ convergence rate for parameter estimation up to polylogarithmic factors. The GSF is implemented for several univariate and multivariate mixture models in the R package GroupSortFuse. Its finite sample performance is supported by a thorough simulation study, and its application is illustrated on two real data examples.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Plugin Estimation of Smooth Optimal Transport Maps

We analyze a number of natural estimators for the optimal transport map between two distributions and show that they are minimax optimal. We adopt the plugin approach: our estimators are simply optimal couplings between measures derived from our observations, appropriately extended so that they define functions on $\mathbb{R}^d$. When the underlying map is assumed to be Lipschitz, we show that computing the optimal coupling between the empirical measures, and extending it using linear smoothers, already gives a minimax optimal estimator. When the underlying map enjoys higher regularity, we show that the optimal coupling between appropriate nonparametric density estimates yields faster rates. Our work also provides new bounds on the risk of corresponding plugin estimators for the quadratic Wasserstein distance, and we show how this problem relates to that of estimating optimal transport maps using stability arguments for smooth and strongly convex Brenier potentials. As an application of our results, we derive central limit theorems for plugin estimators of the squared Wasserstein distance, which are centered at their population counterpart when the underlying distributions have sufficiently smooth densities. In contrast to known central limit theorems for empirical estimators, this result easily lends itself to statistical inference for the quadratic Wasserstein distance.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Uniform Convergence Rates for Maximum Likelihood Estimation under Two-Component Gaussian Mixture Models

We derive uniform convergence rates for the maximum likelihood estimator and minimax lower bounds for parameter estimation in two-component location-scale Gaussian mixture models with unequal variances. We assume the mixing proportions of the mixture are known and fixed, but make no separation assumption on the underlying mixture components. A phase transition is shown to exist in the optimal parameter estimation rate, depending on whether or not the mixture is balanced. Key to our analysis is a careful study of the dependence between the parameters of location-scale Gaussian mixture models, as captured through systems of polynomial equalities and inequalities whose solution set drives the rates we obtain. A simulation study illustrates the theoretical findings of this work.

math.ST↗