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Tuija Pulkkinen

Publications and source records attributed to Tuija Pulkkinen.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Stable Multivariate Functional Time Series Prediction for Major Geomagnetic Indices

High\text{--}resolution scientific data, such as geomagnetic index streams, often exhibit complex temporal dependencies that can be modeled through functional data analysis. Conventional functional time series (FTS) methods typically partition continuous processes into non-overlapping segments, which artificially fragments temporal continuity and can limit estimation efficiency and stability. This is particularly evident in geomagnetic time series prediction due to their noisy, sudden, and large\text{--}scale changes. This study presents a robust multivariate FTS forecasting framework for multi\text{--}dimensional time series with inter\text{--}series correlations and the existence of exogenous predictors. We introduce an overlapping rolling\text{--}window scheme that preserves temporal coherence and mitigates boundary information loss, thereby enriching the effective sample size for a more efficient and stable estimation. We integrate functional principal component analysis for dimension reduction with a vector autoregressive model with exogenous inputs to capture latent dynamics across correlated series. We also construct computationally efficient conformal prediction intervals for uncertainty quantification. The framework is motivated by and applied to the simultaneous forecasting of five critical geomagnetic indices, Kp, Dst, SYM\text{--}H, SME, and SMR, using solar wind parameters as predictors. Empirical results show that this approach outperforms state\text{--}of\text{--}the\text{--}art machine learning baselines, extends forecast horizons to 6\text{--}24 hours, and provides calibrated uncertainty bounds.

stat.AP

What Sustained Multi-Disciplinary Research Can Achieve: The Space Weather Modeling Framework

MHD-based global space weather models have mostly been developed and maintained at academic institutions. While the "free spirit" approach of academia enables the rapid emergence and testing of new ideas and methods, the lack of long-term stability and support makes this arrangement very challenging. This paper describes a successful example of a university-based group, the Center of Space Environment Modeling (CSEM) at the University of Michigan, that developed and maintained the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) and its core element, the BATS-R-US extended MHD code. It took a quarter of a century to develop this capability and reach its present level of maturity that makes it suitable for research use by the space physics community through the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) as well as operational use by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

physics.space-ph

Subcritical growth of electron phase-space holes in planetary radiation belts

The discovery of long-lived electrostatic coherent structures with large-amplitude electric fields ($1 \leq E \leq 500 $ mV/m) by the Van Allen Probes has revealed alternative routes through which planetary radiation belts' acceleration can take place. Following previous reports showing that small phase-space holes, with $qϕ/T^c_e\simeq 10^{-2}-10^{-3}$, could result from electron interaction with large-amplitude whistlers, we demonstrate one possible mechanism through which holes can grow nonlinearly (i.e. $γ\propto \sqrtϕ$) and subcritically as a result of momentum exchange between hot and cold electron populations. Our results provide an explanation for the common occurrence and fast growth of large-amplitude electron phase-space holes in the Earth's radiation belts.

physics.plasm-ph