Turan Orujlu | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Partially Observed Structural Causal Models

Here we introduce Partially Observed Structural Causal Models (POSCMs) as an extension of structural causal models (SCMs) to settings where upstream contexts co-determine both the interaction structure and downstream mechanisms on observed variables. POSCMs thus provide a self-contained causal modeling framework for endogenous graphs, allowing for an intervention hierarchy spanning node- and edge-level contexts and endogenous variable interventions. To define edge interventions, we separate node mechanisms into edge-local transmission channels that can be modified without changing the source node or the rest of the target mechanism. We provide an identifiability theory that clarifies which intervention families would suffice to disentangle structure formation from mechanisms. We then empirically validate these theoretical results in two external simulators: a biophysically detailed virtual human retina and a gene-regulatory analogue. The experiments reproduce non-identifiability under latent context, expose structure-mechanism confounding under latent edges, and recover pathway-level input-output relationships under targeted interventions, consistent with our positive Markov kernel identifiability results. Together, POSCMs provide an intervention-oriented framework for causal systems in which contexts, graph structure, mechanisms, and measurements are jointly generated and only partially observed.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Causal Process Models: Reframing Dynamic Causal Graph Discovery as a Reinforcement Learning Problem

Most neural models of causality assume static causal graphs, failing to capture the dynamic and sparse nature of physical interactions where causal relationships emerge and dissolve over time. We introduce the Causal Process Framework and its neural implementation, Causal Process Models (CPMs), for learning sparse, time-varying causal graphs from visual observations. Unlike traditional approaches that maintain dense connectivity, our model explicitly constructs causal edges only when objects actively interact, dramatically improving both interpretability and computational efficiency. We achieve this by casting dynamic interaction-graph construction for world modeling as a multi-agent reinforcement learning problem, where specialized agents sequentially decide which objects are causally connected at each timestep. Our key innovation is a structured representation that factorizes object and force vectors along three learned dimensions (mutability, causal relevance, and control relevance), enabling the automatic discovery of semantically meaningful encodings. We demonstrate that a CPM significantly outperforms dense graph baselines on physical prediction tasks, particularly for longer horizons and varying object counts.

cs.LG↗