arXiv subjects

Turgay Ayer

Publications and source records attributed to Turgay Ayer.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Small Area Estimation of Case Growths for Timely COVID-19 Outbreak Detection

The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a profound impact on the global economy and continues to exact a significant toll on human lives. The COVID-19 case growth rate stands as a key epidemiological parameter to estimate and monitor for effective detection and containment of the resurgence of outbreaks. A fundamental challenge in growth rate estimation and hence outbreak detection is balancing the accuracy-speed tradeoff, where accuracy typically degrades with shorter fitting windows. In this paper, we provide a transfer learning framework, which we call Transfer Learning Random Forest (TLRF), for an effective implementation of the random forests algorithm that balances this accuracy-speed tradeoff. Specifically, we develop an identification strategy that converts the growth rate estimation problem into a regression task, which enables effective transfer learning across space and time through random forests' adaptive weighting mechanism. As such, through adaptively choosing fitting window sizes based on relevant day-level and county-level features affecting the disease spread, TLRF can accurately estimate case growth rates for counties with small sample sizes. Out-of-sample prediction analysis shows that TLRF outperforms established growth rate estimation methods. Furthermore, we conducted a case study based on outbreak case data from the state of Colorado and showed that TLRF could improve timely detections of outbreaks up to 224% when compared to the decisions made by Colorado's Department of Health and Environment (CDPHE). To demonstrate practical implementation, we developed a publicly available outbreak detection tool that operated from September 2020 through March 2023, receiving substantial attention from policymakers across all 50 states.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Transfer Learning for Meta-analysis Under Covariate Shift

Randomized controlled trials often do not represent the populations where decisions are made, and covariate shift across studies can invalidate standard IPD meta-analysis and transport estimators. We propose a placebo-anchored transport framework that treats source-trial outcomes as abundant proxy signals and target-trial placebo outcomes as scarce, high-fidelity gold labels to calibrate baseline risk. A low-complexity (sparse) correction anchors proxy outcome models to the target population, and the anchored models are embedded in a cross-fitted doubly robust learner, yielding a Neyman-orthogonal, target-site doubly robust estimator for patient-level heterogeneous treatment effects when target treated outcomes are available. We distinguish two regimes: in connected targets (with a treated arm), the method yields target-identified effect estimates; in disconnected targets (placebo-only), it reduces to a principled screen--then--transport procedure under explicit working-model transport assumptions. Experiments on synthetic data and a semi-synthetic IHDP benchmark evaluate pointwise CATE accuracy, ATE error, ranking quality for targeting, decision-theoretic policy regret, and calibration. Across connected settings, the proposed method is best or near-best and improves substantially over proxy-only, target-only, and transport baselines at small target sample sizes; in disconnected settings, it retains strong ranking performance for targeting while pointwise accuracy depends on the strength of the working transport condition.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Causal Clustering for Conditional Average Treatment Effects Estimation and Subgroup Discovery

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is critical in domains such as personalized medicine, resource allocation, and policy evaluation. A central challenge lies in identifying subpopulations that respond differently to interventions, thereby enabling more targeted and effective decision-making. While clustering methods are well-studied in unsupervised learning, their integration with causal inference remains limited. We propose a novel framework that clusters individuals based on estimated treatment effects using a learned kernel derived from causal forests, revealing latent subgroup structures. Our approach consists of two main steps. First, we estimate debiased Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) using orthogonalized learners via the Robinson decomposition, yielding a kernel matrix that encodes sample-level similarities in treatment responsiveness. Second, we apply kernelized clustering to this matrix to uncover distinct, treatment-sensitive subpopulations and compute cluster-level average CATEs. We present this kernelized clustering step as a form of regularization within the residual-on-residual regression framework. Through extensive experiments on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets, supported by ablation studies and exploratory analyses, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in capturing meaningful treatment effect heterogeneity.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

ELEVATE-GenAI: Reporting Guidelines for the Use of Large Language Models in Health Economics and Outcomes Research: an ISPOR Working Group on Generative AI Report

Introduction: Generative artificial intelligence (AI), particularly large language models (LLMs), holds significant promise for Health Economics and Outcomes Research (HEOR). However, standardized reporting guidance for LLM-assisted research is lacking. This article introduces the ELEVATE GenAI framework and checklist - reporting guidelines specifically designed for HEOR studies involving LLMs. Methods: The framework was developed through a targeted literature review of existing reporting guidelines, AI evaluation frameworks, and expert input from the ISPOR Working Group on Generative AI. It comprises ten domains, including model characteristics, accuracy, reproducibility, and fairness and bias. The accompanying checklist translates the framework into actionable reporting items. To illustrate its use, the framework was applied to two published HEOR studies: one focused on systematic literature review tasks and the other on economic modeling. Results: The ELEVATE GenAI framework offers a comprehensive structure for reporting LLM-assisted HEOR research, while the checklist facilitates practical implementation. Its application to the two case studies demonstrates its relevance and usability across different HEOR contexts. Limitations: Although the framework provides robust reporting guidance, further empirical testing is needed to assess its validity, completeness, usability, as well as its generalizability across diverse HEOR use cases. Conclusion: The ELEVATE GenAI framework and checklist address a critical gap by offering structured guidance for transparent, accurate, and reproducible reporting of LLM-assisted HEOR research. Future work will focus on extensive testing and validation to support broader adoption and refinement.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Generative AI in Health Economics and Outcomes Research: A Taxonomy of Key Definitions and Emerging Applications, an ISPOR Working Group Report

Objective: This article offers a taxonomy of generative artificial intelligence (AI) for health economics and outcomes research (HEOR), explores its emerging applications, and outlines methods to enhance the accuracy and reliability of AI-generated outputs. Methods: The review defines foundational generative AI concepts and highlights current HEOR applications, including systematic literature reviews, health economic modeling, real-world evidence generation, and dossier development. Approaches such as prompt engineering (zero-shot, few-shot, chain-of-thought, persona pattern prompting), retrieval-augmented generation, model fine-tuning, and the use of domain-specific models are introduced to improve AI accuracy and reliability. Results: Generative AI shows significant potential in HEOR, enhancing efficiency, productivity, and offering novel solutions to complex challenges. Foundation models are promising in automating complex tasks, though challenges remain in scientific reliability, bias, interpretability, and workflow integration. The article discusses strategies to improve the accuracy of these AI tools. Conclusion: Generative AI could transform HEOR by increasing efficiency and accuracy across various applications. However, its full potential can only be realized by building HEOR expertise and addressing the limitations of current AI technologies. As AI evolves, ongoing research and innovation will shape its future role in the field.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Estimating County-Level COVID-19 Exponential Growth Rates Using Generalized Random Forests

Rapid and accurate detection of community outbreaks is critical to address the threat of resurgent waves of COVID-19. A practical challenge in outbreak detection is balancing accuracy vs. speed. In particular, while estimation accuracy improves with longer fitting windows, speed degrades. This paper presents a machine learning framework to balance this tradeoff using generalized random forests (GRF), and applies it to detect county level COVID-19 outbreaks. This algorithm chooses an adaptive fitting window size for each county based on relevant features affecting the disease spread, such as changes in social distancing policies. Experiment results show that our method outperforms any non-adaptive window size choices in 7-day ahead COVID-19 outbreak case number predictions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2016

2-Approximation Algorithms for Perishable Inventory Control When FIFO Is an Optimal Issuing Policy

We consider a periodic-review, fixed-lifetime perishable inventory control problem where demand is a general stochastic process. The optimal solution for this problem is intractable due to "curse of dimensionality". In this paper, we first present a computationally efficient algorithm that we call the marginal-cost dual-balancing policy for perishable inventory control problem. We then prove that a myopic policy under the so-called marginal-cost accounting scheme provides a lower bound on the optimal ordering quantity. By combining the specific lower bound we derive and any upper bound on the optimal ordering quantity with the marginal-cost dual-balancing policy, we present a more general class of algorithms that we call the truncated-balancing policy. We prove that when first-in-first-out (FIFO) is an optimal issuing policy, both of our proposed algorithms admit a worst-case performance guarantee of two, i.e. the expected total cost of our policy is at most twice that of an optimal ordering policy. We further present sufficient conditions that ensure the optimality of FIFO issuing policy. Finally, we conduct numerical analyses based on real data and show that both of our algorithms perform much better than the worst-case performance guarantee, and the truncated-balancing policy has a significant performance improvement over the balancing policy.

math.OC↗