arXiv subjects

Tyler Robinson

Publications and source records attributed to Tyler Robinson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Masses of Potentially Habitable Planets Characterized by the Habitable Worlds Observatory

Constraints on the masses of exoplanets directly imaged and characterized by the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) are crucial for categorizing these planets and interpreting their spectra. In particular, achieving a mass measurement with a precision of approximately 10% or better may be necessary to identify the dominant gaseous species in the atmospheres of Earth-like planets. This is essential for assessing their habitability and interpreting potential biosignatures (arXiv:2502.01513). Space-based astrometry will be required to measure the masses of planets in face-on systems, or planets orbiting hot and rapidly rotating or highly active stars. Astrometric uncertainties are dominated by the number and magnitude of background reference stars needed to precisely measure the astrometric wobble of the target star induced by the planet. To that end, we propose a program to measure the masses of Earth analogs orbiting HWO target stars with ultra-high-precision astrometry obtained with the HWO high-resolution instrument. We assess the photon-noise error budget for these observations. We find that, for a field of view spanning a few square arcminutes, the astrometric uncertainty due to the number and brightness of reference stars dominates the photon-noise error budget, particularly for targets near the Galactic poles. We explored the impact of filter choice and location in the sky on the photon-noise astrometric uncertainties by simulating the magnitude distribution of reference stars across different filters at a range of galactic longitudes and latitudes. We find that a ~ 200-day survey in the Gaia G band consisting of 100 epochs per target star distributed over the 5-year prime mission with a 6m aperture HWO equipped with a 6' x 6' field-of-view would be required to achieve the photon-noise sensitivity to measure the masses of the ~ 40 Earth-mass habitable-zone planets to ~10%.

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arXiv2025

Identifying rocky planets and water worlds among sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets with the Habitable Worlds Observatory

Astronomers are debating whether the plentiful "sub-Neptune" exoplanets -- worlds a bit larger than Earth but smaller than Neptune -- are predominantly rocky planets, water-rich "ocean worlds," or gas-enshrouded mini-Neptunes. This question is crucial because such sub-Neptune-sized planets are among the most common in our galaxy, yet we have no analog in our own solar system, making them a key to understanding planet formation and diversity. It also directly impacts the search for habitable worlds: larger-than-Earth planets with solid surfaces or oceans could support life, whereas gas-rich mini-Neptunes likely cannot. However, distinguishing these types using only a planet's mass and radius is very challenging, because different compositions can produce similar densities, leaving a world's nature ambiguous with current data. The proposed Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), a future NASA flagship telescope, offers a solution. HWO could directly image and spectroscopically analyze starlight reflected from 50~100 sub-Neptunes around nearby stars, aiming to reveal their atmospheric compositions and potential surfaces. Using visible and near-infrared spectroscopy along with sensitive polarimetry, HWO would detect atmospheric gases (such as water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide) and search for telltale surface signatures, including rock absorption features and the characteristic reflectivity patterns of oceans. By analyzing these signals, we could determine whether sub-Neptunes are large rocky planets or water worlds rather than gas-dominated mini-Neptunes. Crucially, expanding the search beyond Earth-sized planets to include these abundant sub-Neptunes may uncover entirely new classes of potentially habitable worlds, directly advancing HWO's mission to identify and characterize planets that could support life.

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arXiv2025

Wavelength Requirements for Life Detection via Reflected Light Spectroscopy of Rocky Exoplanets

Searching for signs of life is a primary goal of the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). However, merely detecting oxygen, methane, or other widely discussed biosignatures is insufficient evidence for a biosphere. In parallel with biosignature detection, exoplanet life detection additionally requires characterization of the broader physicochemical context to evaluate planetary habitability and the plausibility that life could produce a particular biosignature in a given environment. Life detection further requires that we can confidently rule out photochemical or geological phenomena that can mimic life. Evaluating false-positive scenarios may require different observatory specifications than biosignature detection surveys. Here, we explore the coronagraph requirements for assessing habitability and for excluding known false-positive (and false-negative) scenarios for oxygen and methane. We find that broad wavelength coverage ranging from the near ultraviolet (0.26 $\mu$m) and extending into the near infrared (1.7 $\mu$m) is necessary to contextualize these potential biosignatures with HWO. The short-wavelength cutoff is driven by the need to identify Proterozoic-like biospheres via O$_3$, whereas the long-wavelength cutoff is driven by the need to contextualize O$_2$ and CH$_4$ biosignatures via constraints on carbon-bearing atmospheric species. The ability to obtain spectra with signal-to-noise ratios of 20-40 across this 0.26-1.7 $\mu$m range (R=7 UV, R=140 VIS, and R=70 NIR) is also required. While not every Earth-analog biosignature and false positive can be unambiguously identified with these capabilities-and the plausibility and contextual clues of many biosignature false positives remain an area of active research-our minimal spectral recommendations would enable a broad search for Earth-like life assuming such observations are achievable for a meaningful number of HWO targets.

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arXiv2025

Modern Earth-like Chemical Disequilibrium Biosignatures Are Challenging To Constrain Through Spectroscopic Retrievals

Robust exoplanet characterization studies are underway, and the community is looking ahead toward developing observational strategies to search for life beyond our solar system. With the development of life detection approaches like searching for atmospheric chemical species indicative of life, chemical disequilibrium has also been proposed as a potentially key signature for life. Chemical disequilibrium can arise from the production of waste gases due to biological processes and can be quantified using a metric known as the available Gibbs free energy. The main goal of this study was to explore the detectability of chemical disequilibrium for a modern Earth-like analog. Atmospheric retrievals coupled to a thermodynamics model were used to determine posterior distributions for the available Gibbs free energy given simulated observations at various noise levels. In reflected light, chemical disequilibrium signals were difficult to detect and limited by the constraints on the CH4 abundance, which was challenging to constrain for a modern Earth case with simulated observations spanning ultraviolet through near-infrared wavelengths with V-band SNRs of 10, 20, and 40. For a modern Earth analog orbiting a late-type M dwarf, we simulated transit observations with the James Webb Space Telescope Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) and found that tight constraints on the available Gibbs free energy can be achieved, but only at extremely low noise on the order of several ppm. This study serves as further proof of concept for remotely inferring chemical disequilibrium biosignatures and should be included in continuing to build life detection strategies for future exoplanet characterization missions.

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arXiv2023

Constraining Background N2 Inventories on Directly Imaged Terrestrial Exoplanets to Rule Out O2 False Positives

Direct imaging spectroscopy with future space-based telescopes will constrain terrestrial planet atmospheric composition and potentially detect biosignature gases. One promising indication of life is abundant atmospheric O2. However, various non-biological processes could also lead to O2 accumulation in the atmospheres of potentially habitable planets around Sun-like stars. In particular, the absence of non-condensible background gases such as N2 could result in appreciable H escape and abiotic O2 buildup, so identifying background atmosphere composition is crucial for contextualizing any O2 detections. Here, we perform retrievals on simulated directly imaged terrestrial planets using rfast, a new exoplanet atmospheric retrieval suite with direct imaging analysis capabilities. By simulating Earth-analog retrievals for varied atmospheric compositions, cloud properties, and surface pressures, we determine what wavelength range, spectral resolution, and signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) are necessary to constrain background gases' identity and abundance. We find N2 backgrounds can be uniquely identified with S/N$\sim$20 observations, provided that wavelength coverage extends beyond $\sim$1.6 $\mu$m to rule out CO-dominated atmospheres. Additionally, there is a low probability of O2-dominated atmospheres due to an O2-N2 degeneracy that is only totally ruled out at S/N$\sim$40. If wavelength coverage is limited to 0.2-1.1 $\mu$m, then although all other cosmochemically plausible backgrounds can be readily excluded, N2 and CO backgrounds cannot be distinguished. Overall, our simulated retrievals and associated integration time calculations suggest that near-infrared coverage to at least 1.6 $\mu$m and apertures approaching 8m are needed to confidently rule out O2 biosignature false positives within feasible integration times

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arXiv2021

Starshade Rendezvous: Exoplanet Sensitivity and Observing Strategy

Launching a starshade to rendezvous with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope would provide the first opportunity to directly image the habitable zones of nearby sunlike stars in the coming decade. A report on the science and feasibility of such a mission was recently submitted to NASA as a probe study concept. The driving objective of the concept is to determine whether Earth-like exoplanets exist in the habitable zones of the nearest sunlike stars and have biosignature gases in their atmospheres. With the sensitivity provided by this telescope, it is possible to measure the brightness of zodiacal dust disks around the nearest sunlike stars and establish how their population compares to our own. In addition, known gas-giant exoplanets can be targeted to measure their atmospheric metallicity and thereby determine if the correlation with planet mass follows the trend observed in the Solar System and hinted at by exoplanet transit spectroscopy data. In this paper we provide the details of the calculations used to estimate the sensitivity of Roman with a starshade and describe the publicly available Python-based source code used to make these calculations. Given the fixed capability of Roman and the constrained observing windows inherent for the starshade, we calculate the sensitivity of the combined observatory to detect these three types of targets and we present an overall observing strategy that enables us to achieve these objectives.

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arXiv2020

Distinguishing multicellular life on exoplanets by testing Earth as an exoplanet

Can multicellular life be distinguished from single cellular life on an exoplanet? We hypothesize that abundant upright photosynthetic multicellular life (trees) will cast shadows at high sun angles that will distinguish them from single cellular life and test this using Earth as an exoplanet. We first test the concept using Unmanned Arial Vehicles (UAVs) at a replica moon landing site near Flagstaff, Arizona and show trees have both a distinctive reflectance signature (red edge) and geometric signature (shadows at high sun angles) that can distinguish them from replica moon craters. Next, we calculate reflectance signatures for Earth at several phase angles with POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of Earth's reflectance) satellite directional reflectance measurements and then reduce Earth to a single pixel. We compare Earth to other planetary bodies (Mars, the Moon, Venus, and Uranus) and hypothesize that Earths directional reflectance will be between strongly backscattering rocky bodies with no weathering (like Mars and the Moon) and cloudy bodies with more isotropic scattering (like Venus and Uranus). Our modelling results put Earth in line with strongly backscattering Mars, while our empirical results put Earth in line with more isotropic scattering Venus. We identify potential weaknesses in both the modeled and empirical results and suggest additional steps to determine whether this technique could distinguish upright multicellular life on exoplanets.

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arXiv2020

The Habitable Exoplanet Observatory (HabEx) Mission Concept Study Final Report

The Habitable Exoplanet Observatory, or HabEx, has been designed to be the Great Observatory of the 2030s. For the first time in human history, technologies have matured sufficiently to enable an affordable space-based telescope mission capable of discovering and characterizing Earthlike planets orbiting nearby bright sunlike stars in order to search for signs of habitability and biosignatures. Such a mission can also be equipped with instrumentation that will enable broad and exciting general astrophysics and planetary science not possible from current or planned facilities. HabEx is a space telescope with unique imaging and multi-object spectroscopic capabilities at wavelengths ranging from ultraviolet (UV) to near-IR. These capabilities allow for a broad suite of compelling science that cuts across the entire NASA astrophysics portfolio. HabEx has three primary science goals: (1) Seek out nearby worlds and explore their habitability; (2) Map out nearby planetary systems and understand the diversity of the worlds they contain; (3) Enable new explorations of astrophysical systems from our own solar system to external galaxies by extending our reach in the UV through near-IR. This Great Observatory science will be selected through a competed GO program, and will account for about 50% of the HabEx primary mission. The preferred HabEx architecture is a 4m, monolithic, off-axis telescope that is diffraction-limited at 0.4 microns and is in an L2 orbit. HabEx employs two starlight suppression systems: a coronagraph and a starshade, each with their own dedicated instrument.

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arXiv2019

The Need for Laboratory Measurements and Ab Initio Studies to Aid Understanding of Exoplanetary Atmospheres

We are now on a clear trajectory for improvements in exoplanet observations that will revolutionize our ability to characterize their atmospheric structure, composition, and circulation, from gas giants to rocky planets. However, exoplanet atmospheric models capable of interpreting the upcoming observations are often limited by insufficiencies in the laboratory and theoretical data that serve as critical inputs to atmospheric physical and chemical tools. Here we provide an up-to-date and condensed description of areas where laboratory and/or ab initio investigations could fill critical gaps in our ability to model exoplanet atmospheric opacities, clouds, and chemistry, building off a larger 2016 white paper, and endorsed by the NAS Exoplanet Science Strategy report. Now is the ideal time for progress in these areas, but this progress requires better access to, understanding of, and training in the production of spectroscopic data as well as a better insight into chemical reaction kinetics both thermal and radiation-induced at a broad range of temperatures. Given that most published efforts have emphasized relatively Earth-like conditions, we can expect significant and enlightening discoveries as emphasis moves to the exotic atmospheres of exoplanets.

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arXiv2019

The Critical, Strategic Importance of Adaptive Optics-Assisted Ground-Based Telescopes for the Success of Future NASA Exoplanet Direct Imaging Missions

Ground-based telescopes coupled with adaptive optics (AO) have been playing a leading role in exoplanet direct imaging science and technological development for the past two decades and will continue to have an indispensable role for the next decade and beyond. Over the next decade, extreme AO systems on 8-10m telescopes will 1) mitigate risk for WFIRST-CGI by identifying numerous planets the mission can spectrally characterize, 2) validate performance requirements and motivate improvements to atmosphere models needed to unambiguously characterize solar system-analogues from space, and 3) mature novel technological innovations useful for space. Extremely Large Telescopes can deliver the first thermal infrared (10 $\mu m$) images of rocky planets around Sun-like stars and identify biomarkers. These data provide a future NASA direct imaging flagship mission (i.e. HabEx, LUVOIR) with numerous exo-Earth candidates and critical ancillary information to help clarify whether these planets are habitable.

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arXiv2018

The Habitable Exoplanet Observatory (HabEx) Mission Concept Study Interim Report

For the first time in human history, technologies have matured sufficiently to enable a mission capable of discovering and characterizing habitable planets like Earth orbiting sunlike stars other than the Sun. At the same time, such a platform would enable unique science not possible from ground-based facilities. This science is broad and exciting, ranging from new investigations of our own solar system to a full range of astrophysics disciplines. The Habitable Exoplanet Observatory, or HabEx, is one of four studies currently being undertaken by NASA in preparation for the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey. HabEx has been designed to be the Great Observatory of the 2030s, with community involvement through a competed and funded Guest Observer (GO) program. This interim report describes the HabEx baseline concept, which is a space-based 4-meter diameter telescope mission concept with ultraviolet (UV), optical, and near-infrared (near-IR) imaging and spectroscopy capabilities. More information on HabEx can be found at https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/habex

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arXiv2018

The Origins Space Telescope: Towards An Understanding of Temperate Planetary Atmospheres

The Origins Space Telescope (OST) is one of four mission concepts currently being studied by NASA in preparation for the Astrophysics 2020 Decadal Survey. With active cooling (~4 K), OST will be sensitive in mid- to far-IR wavelengths, using imaging and spectroscopy to probe the furthest reaches of our galaxies, trace the path of water through star and planet formation, and place thermochemical constraints on the atmospheres of exoplanets ranging in size from Jupiter to Earth. This contribution to the Exoplanet Science Strategy committee discusses the significant advancements that the OST Mid-Infrared Imager, Spectrometer, and Coronagraph (MISC) instrument can make in studying cool planetary atmospheres. We particularly focus on the atmospheres of transiting rocky planets in the habitable zones of mid-to-late M stars. We discuss how OST thermal infrared observations can significantly enhance our understanding of the temperature structure and molecular abundances of biologically interesting gases on these worlds, including O3, CH4, H2O, and CO2.

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arXiv2018

exocartographer: A Bayesian Framework for Mapping Exoplanets in Reflected Light

Future space telescopes will directly image extrasolar planets at visible wavelengths. Time-resolved reflected light from an exoplanet encodes information about atmospheric and surface inhomogeneities. Previous research has shown that the light curve of an exoplanet can be inverted to obtain a low-resolution map of the planet, as well as constraints on its spin orientation. Estimating the uncertainty on 2D albedo maps has so far remained elusive. Here we present exocartographer, a flexible open-source Bayesian framework for solving the exo-cartography inverse problem. The map is parameterized with equal-area HEALPix pixels. For a fiducial map resolution of 192 pixels, a four-parameter Gaussian process describing the spatial scale of albedo variations, and two unknown planetary spin parameters, exocartographer explores a 198-dimensional parameter space. To test the code, we produce a light curve for a cloudless Earth in a face-on orbit with a 90$^\circ$ obliquity. We produce synthetic white light observations of the planet: 5 epochs of observations throughout the planet's orbit, each consisting of 24 hourly observations with a photometric uncertainty of $1\%$ (120 data). We retrieve an albedo map and$-$for the first time$-$its uncertainties, along with spin constraints. The albedo map is recognizably of Earth, with typical uncertainty of $30\%$. The retrieved characteristic length scale is 88$\pm 7 ^\circ$, or 9800 km. The obliquity is recovered with a $1-\sigma$ uncertainty of $0.8^\circ$. Despite the uncertainty in the retrieved albedo map, we robustly identify a high albedo region (the Sahara desert) and a large low-albedo region (the Pacific Ocean).

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arXiv2017

Implications for planetary system formation from interstellar object 1I/2017 U1 (`Oumuamua)

The recently discovered minor body 1I/2017 U1 (`Oumuamua) is the first known object in our Solar System that is not bound by the Sun's gravity. Its hyperbolic orbit (eccentricity greater than unity) strongly suggests that it originated outside our Solar System; its red color is consistent with substantial space weathering experienced over a long interstellar journey. We carry out an simple calculation of the probability of detecting such an object. We find that the observed detection rate of 1I-like objects can be satisfied if the average mass of ejected material from nearby stars during the process of planetary formation is ~20 Earth masses, similar to the expected value for our Solar System. The current detection rate of such interstellar interlopers is estimated to be 0.2/year, and the expected number of detections over the past few years is almost exactly one. When the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope begins its wide, fast, deep all-sky survey the detection rate will increase to 1/year. Those expected detections will provide further constraints on nearby planetary system formation through a better estimate of the number and properties of interstellar objects.

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arXiv2017

Observing the Atmospheres of Known Temperate Earth-sized Planets with JWST

Nine transiting Earth-sized planets have recently been discovered around nearby late M dwarfs, including the TRAPPIST-1 planets and two planets discovered by the MEarth survey, GJ 1132b and LHS 1140b. These planets are the smallest known planets that may have atmospheres amenable to detection with JWST. We present model thermal emission and transmission spectra for each planet, varying composition and surface pressure of the atmosphere. We base elemental compositions on those of Earth, Titan, and Venus and calculate the molecular compositions assuming chemical equilibrium, which can strongly depend on temperature. Both thermal emission and transmission spectra are sensitive to the atmospheric composition; thermal emission spectra are sensitive to surface pressure and temperature. We predict the observability of each planet's atmosphere with JWST. GJ 1132b and TRAPPIST-1b are excellent targets for emission spectroscopy with JWST/MIRI, requiring fewer than 10 eclipse observations. Emission photometry for TRAPPIST-1c requires 5-15 eclipses; LHS 1140b and TRAPPIST-1d, TRAPPIST-1e, and TRAPPIST-1f, which could possibly have surface liquid water, may be accessible with photometry. Seven of the nine planets are strong candidates for transmission spectroscopy measurements with JWST, though the number of transits required depends strongly on the planets' actual masses. Using the measured masses, fewer than 20 transits are required for a 5 sigma detection of spectral features for GJ 1132b and six of the TRAPPIST-1 planets. Dedicated campaigns to measure the atmospheres of these nine planets will allow us, for the first time, to probe formation and evolution processes of terrestrial planetary atmospheres beyond our solar system.

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arXiv2016

Atmospheric Retrieval for Direct Imaging Spectroscopy of Gas Giants In Reflected Light II: Orbital Phase and Planetary Radius

Future space-based telescopes, such as the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST), will observe the reflected-light spectra of directly imaged extrasolar planets. Interpretation of such data presents a number of novel challenges, including accounting for unknown planet radius and uncertain stellar illumination phase angle. Here we report on our continued development of Markov Chain Monte Carlo retrieval methods for addressing these issues in the interpretation of such data. Specifically we explore how the unknown planet radius and potentially poorly known observer-planet-star phase angle impacts retrievals of parameters of interest such as atmospheric methane abundance, cloud properties and surface gravity. As expected, the uncertainty in retrieved values is a strong function of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the observed spectra, particularly for low metallicity atmospheres, which lack deep absorption signatures. Meaningful results may only be possible above certain SNR thresholds; for cases across a metallicity range of 1-50 times solar, we find that only an SNR of 20 systematically reproduces close to the correct methane abundance at all phase angles. However, even in cases where the phase angle is poorly known we find that the planet radius can be constrained to within a factor of two. We find that uncertainty in planet radius decreases at phase angles past quadrature, as the highly forward scattering nature of the atmosphere at these geometries limits the possible volume of phase space that relevant parameters can occupy. Finally, we present an estimation of possible improvement that can result from combining retrievals against observations at multiple phase angles.

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arXiv2016

The Habitability of Proxima Centauri b: II: Environmental States and Observational Discriminants

Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its star's habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here we use 1D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for evolutionary scenarios predicted in our companion paper (Barnes et al., 2016). These include high-O2, high-CO2, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with either oxidizing or reducing compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen b's position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states. These results are applicable not only to Proxima Cen b, but to other terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Thermal phase curves may provide the first constraint on the existence of an atmosphere, and JWST observations longward of 7 microns could characterize atmospheric heat transport and molecular composition. Detection of ocean glint is unlikely with JWST, but may be within the reach of larger aperture telescopes. Direct imaging spectra may detect O4, which is diagnostic of massive water loss and O2 retention, rather than a photosynthesis. Similarly, strong CO2 and CO bands at wavelengths shortward of 2.5 {\mu}m would indicate a CO2-dominated atmosphere. If the planet is habitable and volatile-rich, direct imaging will be the best means of detecting habitability. Earth-like planets with microbial biospheres may be identified by the presence of CH4 and either photosynthetically produced O2 or a hydrocarbon haze layer.

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arXiv2015

The Center of Light: Spectroastrometric Detection of Exomoons

Direct imaging of extrasolar planets with future space-based coronagraphic telescopes may provide a means of detecting companion moons at wavelengths where the moon outshines the planet. We propose a detection strategy based on the positional variation of the center of light with wavelength, "spectroastrometry." This new application of this technique could be used to detect an exomoon, to determine the exomoon's orbit and the mass of the host exoplanet, and to disentangle of the spectra of the planet and moon. We consider two model systems, for which we discuss the requirements for detection of exomoons around nearby stars. We simulate the characterization of an Earth-Moon analog system with spectroastrometry, showing that the orbit, the planet mass, and the spectra of both bodies can be recovered. To enable the detection and characterization of exomoons we recommend that coronagraphic telescopes should extend in wavelength coverage to 3 micron, and should be designed with spectroastrometric requirements in mind.

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