Udbhav Srivastava | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

SolarFlowRefiner: Refinement-Aware Flow Matching for Surface Solar Radiation Downscaling

High-resolution surface solar radiation (SSR) is important for solar forecasting and grid operation. However, physically consistent reanalysis products are too coarse to resolve localized cloud-driven variability. In this paper, we study a multisource downscaling task that reconstructs high-resolution SolarCube SSR fields from coarse ERA5 radiative variables and co-registered satellite channels. The task is challenging because a single ERA5 grid cell may contain both sunlit and cloud-shadowed regions. As a result, the missing high-resolution correction can be spatially sharp and inherently ambiguous. One-stage predictors often oversmooth these structures. Post-hoc refinement also introduces a stage-wise mismatch: the generator is optimized independently, even though its output determines the refiner's initial state. We introduce SolarFlowRefiner, a refinement-aware flow-matching framework for SSR downscaling. A conditional FlowMatch generator first predicts a normalized correction to an upsampled ERA5 baseline. The refiner is then trained on prediction-conditioned states between the current FlowMatch output and the target residual. This exposes the refiner to the structured errors produced by the generator. The refinement objective is also backpropagated through the FlowMatch sampler, allowing generation and correction to be jointly optimized for the final reconstruction. Experiments on a day-blocked ERA5--SolarCube benchmark show consistent improvements over standalone generation and post-hoc refinement. More broadly, SolarFlowRefiner provides a general strategy for coupling generative predictors with iterative correctors.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Earth Embeddings Reveal Diverse Urban Signals from Space

Conventional urban indicators derived from censuses, surveys, and administrative records are often costly, spatially inconsistent, and slow to update. Recent geospatial foundation models enable Earth embeddings, compact satellite image representations transferable across downstream tasks, but their utility for neighborhood-scale urban monitoring remains unclear. Here, we benchmark three Earth embedding families, AlphaEarth, Prithvi, and Clay, for urban signal prediction across six U.S. metropolitan areas from 2020 to 2023. Using a unified supervised-learning framework, we predict 14 neighborhood-level indicators spanning crime, income, health, and travel behavior, and evaluate performance under four settings: global, city-wise, year-wise, and city-year. Results show that Earth embeddings capture substantial urban variation, with the highest predictive skill for outcomes more directly tied to built-environment structure, including chronic health burdens and dominant commuting modes. By contrast, indicators shaped more strongly by fine-scale behavior and local policy, such as cycling, remain difficult to infer. Predictive performance varies markedly across cities but remains comparatively stable across years, indicating strong spatial heterogeneity alongside temporal robustness. Exploratory analysis suggests that cross-city variation in predictive performance is associated with urban form in task-specific ways. Controlled dimensionality experiments show that representation efficiency is critical: compact 64-dimensional AlphaEarth embeddings remain more informative than 64-dimensional reductions of Prithvi and Clay. This study establishes a benchmark for evaluating Earth embeddings in urban remote sensing and demonstrates their potential as scalable, low-cost features for SDG-aligned neighborhood-scale urban monitoring.

cs.LG↗