arXiv subjects

Ulrich Hamann

Publications and source records attributed to Ulrich Hamann.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Exploring the role of input data on hail nowcast skill using spatiotemporal neural networks

Hail can cause large financial losses and poses risks to public safety, making reliable nowcasts essential for timely warnings. Deep-learning approaches have emerged as a strong alternative to conventional methods, but how input data choices affect performance has not been deeply explored. We investigate how the skill of a deep-learning hail nowcasting model can be improved without changing the model architecture. Sensitivity experiments assess the impact of training-data volume, random data augmentation (mirroring and rotation) and the number of input timesteps. Increasing the years of training data substantially improves forecast skill, by up to 25 minutes at later lead times. Augmentation improved performance for larger datasets but interestingly degraded performance for smaller ones. Sensitivity to input timesteps was weaker than sensitivity to training years. These findings show that improvements in data selection and preprocessing can yield substantial gains even with a fixed architecture, offering guidance for future deep-learning nowcasting development.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

HAMSTER: Hyperspectral Albedo Maps dataset with high Spatial and TEmporal Resolution

Surface albedo is an important parameter in radiative-transfer simulations of the Earth's system as it is fundamental for correctly calculating the energy budget of the planet. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites continuously monitor daily and yearly changes in reflection at the planetary surface. The MODIS Surface Reflectance Black-Sky Albedo dataset (version 6.1 of MCD43D) provides detailed albedo maps for seven spectral bands in the visible and near-infrared range. These albedo maps allow us to classify different Lambertian surface types and their seasonal and yearly variability and change, albeit only into seven spectral bands. However, a complete set of albedo maps covering the entire wavelength range is required to simulate radiance spectra and correctly retrieve atmospheric and cloud properties from remote sensing observations of the Earth. We use a principal component analysis (PCA) regression algorithm to generate hyperspectral albedo maps of the Earth. By combining different datasets containing laboratory measurements of hyperspectral reflectance for various dry soils, vegetation surfaces, and mixtures of both, we reconstruct albedo maps across the entire wavelength range from 400 to 2500 nm. The PCA method is trained with a 10-year average of MODIS data for each day of the year. We obtain hyperspectral albedo maps with a spatial resolution of 0.05{\deg} in latitude and longitude, a spectral resolution of 10 nm, and a temporal resolution of 1 d (day). Using the hyperspectral albedo maps, we estimate the spectral profiles of different land surfaces, such as forests, deserts, cities, and icy surfaces, and study their seasonal variability. These albedo maps will enable us to refine calculations of the Earth's energy budget and its seasonal variability and improve climate simulations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Latent diffusion models for generative precipitation nowcasting with accurate uncertainty quantification

Diffusion models have been widely adopted in image generation, producing higher-quality and more diverse samples than generative adversarial networks (GANs). We introduce a latent diffusion model (LDM) for precipitation nowcasting - short-term forecasting based on the latest observational data. The LDM is more stable and requires less computation to train than GANs, albeit with more computationally expensive generation. We benchmark it against the GAN-based Deep Generative Models of Rainfall (DGMR) and a statistical model, PySTEPS. The LDM produces more accurate precipitation predictions, while the comparisons are more mixed when predicting whether the precipitation exceeds predefined thresholds. The clearest advantage of the LDM is that it generates more diverse predictions than DGMR or PySTEPS. Rank distribution tests indicate that the distribution of samples from the LDM accurately reflects the uncertainty of the predictions. Thus, LDMs are promising for any applications where uncertainty quantification is important, such as weather and climate.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Thunderstorm nowcasting with deep learning: a multi-hazard data fusion model

Predictions of thunderstorm-related hazards are needed in several sectors, including first responders, infrastructure management and aviation. To address this need, we present a deep learning model that can be adapted to different hazard types. The model can utilize multiple data sources; we use data from weather radar, lightning detection, satellite visible/infrared imagery, numerical weather prediction and digital elevation models. We demonstrate the ability of the model to predict lightning, hail and heavy precipitation probabilistically on a 1 km resolution grid, with a temporal resolution of 5 min and lead times up to 60 min. Shapley values quantify the importance of the different data sources, showing that the weather radar products are the most important predictors for all three hazard types.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Seamless lightning nowcasting with recurrent-convolutional deep learning

A deep learning model is presented to nowcast the occurrence of lightning at a five-minute time resolution 60 minutes into the future. The model is based on a recurrent-convolutional architecture that allows it to recognize and predict the spatiotemporal development of convection, including the motion, growth and decay of thunderstorm cells. The predictions are performed on a stationary grid, without the use of storm object detection and tracking. The input data, collected from an area in and surrounding Switzerland, comprise ground-based radar data, visible/infrared satellite data and derived cloud products, lightning detection, numerical weather prediction and digital elevation model data. We analyze different alternative loss functions, class weighting strategies and model features, providing guidelines for future studies to select loss functions optimally and to properly calibrate the probabilistic predictions of their model. Based on these analyses, we use focal loss in this study, but conclude that it only provides a small benefit over cross entropy, which is a viable option if recalibration of the model is not practical. The model achieves a pixel-wise critical success index (CSI) of 0.45 to predict lightning occurrence within 8 km over the 60-min nowcast period, ranging from a CSI of 0.75 at a 5-min lead time to a CSI of 0.32 at a 60-min lead time.

physics.ao-ph↗