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Ulrich Parlitz

Publications and source records attributed to Ulrich Parlitz.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

Improving the prediction of spatio-temporal chaos by combining parallel reservoir computing with dimensionality reduction

Reservoir computers can be used to predict time series generated by spatio-temporal chaotic systems. Using multiple reservoirs in parallel has shown improved performances for these predictions, by effectively reducing the input dimensionality of each reservoir. Similarly, one may further reduce the dimensionality of the input data by transforming to a lower-dimensional latent space. Combining both approaches, we show that using dimensionality-reduced latent space predictions for parallel reservoir computing not only reduces computational costs, but also leads to better prediction results for small to medium reservoir sizes. In the combined approach we further demonstrate that dimensionality reduction improves small-reservoir predictions regardless of noise contaminating the training data. The benefit of dimensionality-reduced parallel reservoir computing is illustrated and evaluated on the basis of the prediction of the one-dimensional Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation.

nlin.CD

Societal self-regulation induces complex infection dynamics and chaos

Classically, endemic infectious diseases are expected to display relatively stable, predictable infection dynamics. Accordingly, basic disease models such as the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model display stable endemic states or recurrent seasonal waves. However, if the human population reacts to high infection numbers by mitigating the spread of the disease, then this delayed behavioral feedback loop can generate infection waves itself, driven by periodic mitigation and subsequent relaxation. We show that such behavioral reactions, together with a seasonal effect of comparable impact, can cause complex and unpredictable infection dynamics, including Arnold tongues, coexisting attractors, and chaos. Importantly, these arise in epidemiologically relevant parameter regions where the costs associated to infections and mitigation are jointly minimized. By comparing our model to data, we find signs that COVID-19 was mitigated in a way that favored complex infection dynamics. Our results challenge the intuition that endemic disease dynamics necessarily implies predictability and seasonal waves and show the emergence of complex infection dynamics when humans optimize their reaction to increasing infection numbers.

physics.soc-ph

Estimating fractal dimensions: a comparative review and open source implementations

The fractal dimension is a central quantity in nonlinear dynamics and can be estimated via several different numerical techniques. In this review paper we present a self-contained and comprehensive introduction to the fractal dimension. We collect and present various numerical estimators and focus on the three most promising ones: generalized entropy, correlation sum, and extreme value theory. We then perform an extensive quantitative evaluation of these estimators, comparing their performance and precision using different datasets and comparing the impact of features like length, noise, embedding dimension, falsify-ability, among many others. Our analysis shows that for synthetic noiseless data the correlation sum is the best estimator with extreme value theory following closely. For real experimental data we found the correlation sum to be more strongly affected by noise versus the entropy and extreme value theory. The recent extreme value theory estimator seems powerful as it has some of the advantages of both alternative methods. However, using four different ways for checking for significance, we found that the method yielded ``significant' low-dimensional results for inappropriate data like stock market timeseries. This fact, combined with some ambiguities we found in the literature of the method applications, have implications for both previous and future real world applications using the extreme value theory approach, as, for example, the argument for small effective dimensionality in the data cannot come from the method itself. All algorithms discussed are implemented as performant and easy to use open source code via the DynamicalSystems.jl library.

nlin.CD

Predicting Spatio-Temporal Time Series Using Dimension Reduced Local States

We present a method for both cross estimation and iterated time series prediction of spatio temporal dynamics based on reconstructed local states, PCA dimension reduction, and local modelling using nearest neighbour methods. The effectiveness of this approach is shown for (noisy) data from a (cubic) Barkley model, the Bueno-Orovio-Cherry-Fenton model, and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky model.

physics.data-an

CaosDB - Research Data Management for Complex, Changing, and Automated Research Workflows

Here we present CaosDB, a Research Data Management System (RDMS) designed to ensure seamless integration of inhomogeneous data sources and repositories of legacy data. Its primary purpose is the management of data from biomedical sciences, both from simulations and experiments during the complete research data lifecycle. An RDMS for this domain faces particular challenges: Research data arise in huge amounts, from a wide variety of sources, and traverse a highly branched path of further processing. To be accepted by its users, an RDMS must be built around workflows of the scientists and practices and thus support changes in workflow and data structure. Nevertheless it should encourage and support the development and observation of standards and furthermore facilitate the automation of data acquisition and processing with specialized software. The storage data model of an RDMS must reflect these complexities with appropriate semantics and ontologies while offering simple methods for finding, retrieving, and understanding relevant data. We show how CaosDB responds to these challenges and give an overview of the CaosDB Server, its data model and its easy-to-learn CaosDB Query Language. We briefly discuss the status of the implementation, how we currently use CaosDB, and how we plan to use and extend it.

cs.DB

Sustainability, collapse and oscillations of global climate, population and economy in a simple World-Earth model

The Anthropocene is characterized by close interdependencies between the natural Earth system and the human society, posing novel challenges to model development. Here we present a conceptual model describing the long-term coevolution of natural and socioeconomic subsystems of Earth. While the climate is represented via a global carbon cycle, we use economic concepts to model socio-metabolic flows of biomass and fossil fuels between nature and society. A wellbeing-dependent parametrization of fertility and mortality governs human population dynamics. Our analysis focuses on assessing possible asymptotic states of the Earth system for a qualitative understanding of its complex dynamics rather than quantitative predictions. Low dimension and simple equations enable a parameter-space analysis allowing us to identify preconditions of several asymptotic states and hence fates of humanity and planet. These include a sustainable co-evolution of nature and society, a global collapse and everlasting oscillations. We consider scenarios corresponding to different socio-cultural stages of human history. The necessity of accounting for the "human factor" in Earth system models is highlighted by the fact that carbon stocks during the past centuries evolved opposing to what would "naturally" be expected on a planet without humans. The intensity of biomass use and the contribution of ecosystem services to human well-being are found to be crucial determinants of the asymptotic state in a biomass-only scenario. The capitalistic, fossil-based scenario reveals that trajectories with fundamentally different asymptotic states might still be almost indistinguishable during a very long transient phase. Given current population levels, our study also supports the claim that besides reducing the global demand for energy, only the extensive use of renewable energies may pave the way into a sustainable future.

physics.soc-ph

Nonlinear system identification employing automatic differentiation

An optimization based state and parameter estimation method is presented where the required Jacobian matrix of the cost function is computed via automatic differentiation. Automatic differentiation evaluates the programming code of the cost function and provides exact values of the derivatives. In contrast to numerical differentiation it is not suffering from approximation errors and compared to symbolic differentiation it is more convenient to use, because no closed analytic expressions are required. Furthermore, we demonstrate how to generalize the parameter estimation scheme to delay differential equations, where estimating the delay time requires attention.

nlin.CD

Local observability of state variables and parameters in nonlinear modeling quantified by delay reconstruction

Features of the Jacobian matrix of the delay coordinates map are exploited for quantifying the robustness and reliability of state and parameter estimations for a given dynamical model using an observed time series. Relevant concepts of this approach are introduced and illustrated for discrete and continuous time systems employing a filtered Hénon map and a Rössler system.

nlin.CD

Quantifying uncertainty in state and parameter estimation

Observability of state variables and parameters of a dynamical system from an observed time series is analyzed and quantified by means of the Jacobian matrix of the delay coordinates map. For each state variable and each parameter to be estimated a measure of uncertainty is introduced depending on the current state and parameter values, which allows us to identify regions in state and parameter space where the specific unknown quantity can (not) be estimated from a given time series. The method is demonstrated using the Ikeda map and the Hindmarsh-Rose model.

nlin.CD

Basin structure of optimization based state and parameter estimation

Most data based state and parameter estimation methods require suitable initial values or guesses to achieve convergence to the desired solution, which typically is a global minimum of some cost function. Unfortunately, however, other stable solutions (e.g., local minima) may exist and provide suboptimal or even wrong estimates. Here we demonstrate for a 9-dimensional Lorenz-96 model how to characterize the basin size of the global minimum when applying some particular optimization based estimation algorithm. We compare three different strategies for generating suitable initial guesses and we investigate the dependence of the solution on the given trajectory segment (underlying the measured time series). To address the question of how many state variables have to be measured for optimal performance, different types of multivariate time series are considered consisting of 1, 2, or 3 variables. Based on these time series the local observability of state variables and parameters of the Lorenz-96 model is investigated and confirmed using delay coordinates. This result is in good agreement with the observation that correct state and parameter estimation results are obtained if the optimization algorithm is initialized with initial guesses close to the true solution. In contrast, initialization with other exact solutions of the model equations (different from the true solution used to generate the time series) typically fails, i.e. the optimization procedure ends up in local minima different from the true solution. Initialization using random values in a box around the attractor exhibits success rates depending on the number of observables and the available time series (trajectory segment).

nlin.CD

Manifold Learning Approach for Chaos in the Dripping Faucet

Dripping water from a faucet is a typical example exhibiting rich nonlinear phenomena. For such a system, the time stamps at which water drops separate from the faucet can be directly observed in real experiments, and the time series of intervals τ_n between drop separations becomes a subject of analysis. Even if the mass m_n of a drop at the onset of the n-th separation, which cannot be observed directly, exhibits perfectly deterministic dynamics, it sometimes fails to obtain important information from time series of τ_n. This is because the return plot τ_n-1 vs. τ_n may become a multi-valued function, i.e., not a deterministic dynamical system. In this paper, we propose a method to construct a nonlinear coordinate which provides a "surrogate" of the internal state m_n from the time series of τ_n. Here, a key of the proposed approach is to use ISOMAP, which is a well-known method of manifold learning. We first apply it to the time series of $τ_n$ generated from the numerical simulation of a phenomenological mass-spring model for the dripping faucet system. It is shown that a clear one-dimensional map is obtained by the proposed approach, whose characteristic quantities such as the Lyapunov exponent, the topological entropy, and the time correlation function coincide with the original dripping faucet system. Furthermore, we also analyze data obtained from real dripping faucet experiments which also provides promising results.

nlin.CD

Theory and computation of covariant Lyapunov vectors

Lyapunov exponents are well-known characteristic numbers that describe growth rates of perturbations applied to a trajectory of a dynamical system in different state space directions. Covariant (or characteristic) Lyapunov vectors indicate these directions. Though the concept of these vectors has been known for a long time, they became practically computable only recently due to algorithms suggested by Ginelli et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 99, 2007, 130601] and by Wolfe and Samelson [Tellus 59A, 2007, 355]. In view of the great interest in covariant Lyapunov vectors and their wide range of potential applications, in this article we summarize the available information related to Lyapunov vectors and provide a detailed explanation of both the theoretical basics and numerical algorithms. We introduce the notion of adjoint covariant Lyapunov vectors. The angles between these vectors and the original covariant vectors are norm-independent and can be considered as characteristic numbers. Moreover, we present and study in detail an improved approach for computing covariant Lyapunov vectors. Also we describe, how one can test for hyperbolicity of chaotic dynamics without explicitly computing covariant vectors.

nlin.CD

Strict and fussy mode splitting in the tangent space of the Ginzburg-Landau equation

In the tangent space of some spatially extended dissipative systems one can observe "physical" modes which are highly involved in the dynamics and are decoupled from the remaining set of hyperbolically "isolated" degrees of freedom representing strongly decaying perturbations. This mode splitting is studied for the Ginzburg-Landau equation at different strength of the spatial coupling. We observe that isolated modes coincide with eigenmodes of the homogeneous steady state of the system; that there is a local basis where the number of non-zero components of the state vector coincides with the number of "physical" modes; that in a system with finite number of degrees of freedom the strict mode splitting disappears at finite value of coupling; that above this value a fussy mode splitting is observed.

nlin.CD